8 IMPORTANT STATS 2018 FOR MINISTRY IN
Introduction: In a recent issue, editor-in-chief Carol Pipes writes this: The world has changed since I was a kid. I remember a time when all my neighbors went to church. Now, not so much. I no longer assume the people I meet grew up attending church. I ve had to update the internal maps I use to navigate this world and the relationships I develop. Churches are experiencing this dramatic shift as well. Fewer Americans identify as Christian, and the frequency of church attendance has slowed. The average American knows more about the Star Wars universe than the story of Scripture. We now live in a post-christendom age where the church is no longer central to American life. Ministry in the 21st century often feels like uncharted territory for many church leaders. One of our goals at Facts & Trends is to help Christians faithfully navigate the changing cultural landscape. Because you ve joined our email community, we re pleased to share with you an exclusive compilation of findings from 18 research projects to give you a snapshot of American society and the church s place in it. Along with each research topic, we have included two questions for you and church leaders to ask of yourselves and your congregation. This is an ideal resource to help guide conversations as your church maps out a strategy to take ministry to the next level. We hope this resource will help you be more knowledgeable about your world, effective in your ministry, and faithful to our Savior. 2
45% Fewer than half of those who identify as evangelicals (45 percent) strongly agree with core evangelical beliefs, according to LifeWay Research. Those four statements of belief are: The Bible is the highest authority for what I believe. I t is very important for me to personally encourage non-christians to trust Jesus Christ as their Savior. J esus Christ s death on the cross is the only sacrifice that could remove the penalty of my sin. O nly those who trust in Jesus Christ alone as their Savior receive God s free gift of eternal salvation. There s a gap between who evangelicals say they are and what they believe, said Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research. And a significant number of evangelical believers reject the term evangelical. Only two-thirds (69 percent) of evangelicals by belief self-identify as evangelicals. R egardless of what they call themselves evangelicals, Christians, church members how do the people attending our church demonstrate their grasp on the central doctrines of our church? W hat practical steps do we need to take to ensure our members know what they believe? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/12/06/evangelicals-might-not-be-who-you-think/ 3 There s a gap between who evangelicals say they are and what they believe. Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research
11% America s got problems and needs to talk. But only 11 percent of Americans say their pastor is the best person to approach for cultural conversations. Few Americans agree on who can best lead a conversation about the nation s woes, according to LifeWay Research. Less than a quarter (23 percent) would turn to the office of the U.S. president. About 1 in 10 would turn to the nation s preachers (11 percent) or to college professors (10 percent). Almost no one would ask a musician or pro athlete, said Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research, even though they often try to start public conversations. Musicians or athletes get a great deal of attention for their public statements about the issues, said McConnell. But few Americans seem to look to them as thought leaders. What are some ways we can engage our congregation in discussions on societal challenges? Do the people in our community know our pastors and staff enough to trust us to start discussions on societal challenges, and to advocate in favor of a biblical position? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/01/05/americans-doubt-preachers-presidents-or-anyone-else-can-address-nations-issues/ 4
54 In 1992, the median age for a Protestant pastor in America was 44. In 2017, it climbed 10 years to 54. As the average pastor grows older in America, churches say they are struggling to find young Christians who want to become future pastors, according to Barna Research. Today, half of American pastors are older than 55. In 1992, less than a quarter of pastors in the U.S. (24 percent) were that old. Pastors 65 and older have almost tripled in the last 25 years, from 6 percent to 17 percent. Meanwhile, pastors 40 and younger have fallen from 33 percent in 1992 to 15 percent today. Are we training and discipling young leaders in our church who could one day pastor a church? How can we provide leadership opportunities for those who may feel called into church ministry as a career? 5 Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/03/09/how-old-are-americas-pastors/
6% For decades, women have been more likely to attend church than men. In recent years the gap has shrunk 6 percentage points but it s not necessarily good news. In the mid-1980s, 38 percent of women and 25 percent of men attended church at least once a week in America a 13-point gender gap, according to Pew Research analysis of General Social Survey data. By 2012, that gap had shrunk by more than half, to 6 points. The change, however, did not come primarily from an increase in men attending church services. The gap shrank because women s church attendance dropped. While men experienced a 3-point drop in weekly church attendance, from 25 to 22 percent, women s regular attendance fell by 10 points down to 28 percent. Source: PEW RESEARCH CENTER Does our church have an attendance gender gap? How can we ensure that our church is drawing and discipling well both men and women? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/09/25/church-attendance-gender-gap-shrinks-but-its-not-all-good-news/ 6
80% Suicide remains a taboo subject in many Protestant churches, even though 80 percent of senior pastors believe their church can help, according to LifeWay Research. Eight in 10 Protestant senior pastors (80 percent) believe their church is equipped to intervene with someone who is threatening suicide. Yet few people turn to the church for help before taking their own lives, according to their churchgoing friends and family. Only 4 percent of churchgoers who have lost a close friend or family member to suicide say church leaders were aware of their loved one s struggles. Despite their best intentions, churches don t always know how to help those facing mental health struggles, said Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research. Is our church truly equipped to help those struggling with mental illness and those who are threatening suicide? How can we make our church a safe place for friends, family and even potential suicide victims to share their struggles and find help? 7 Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/09/29/research-churches-prevent-suicides/
2,000 LifeWay Research surveyed 2,000 churchgoing Protestant parents to discover what parenting practices pay off over the long haul when it comes to spiritual health. Best predictors of spiritual health among young adults Source: Nothing Less: Engaging Kids in a Lifetime of Faith by Jana Magruder and LifeWayResearch.com Note: LifeWay Research asked Protestant churchgoing parents to describe the upbringing and current spiritual health of their young adult children. These 15 factors were most predictive of spiritual health in young adulthood. These factors have a cumulative effect. Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/10/17/sticky-faith-how-parents-can-encourage-their-kids-spiritual-health/ 8
Most churchgoing Protestant parents of young adults say their kids grew up to be Christians. But half of them don t actually practice the Christian faith, their parents say. Churchgoing parents want to pass on their faith to their kids and to see their children make that faith their own, said Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research. But they don t always know how best to make that happen. The best predictors of spiritual health as an adult are these activities as a child (in order from most predictive to least): regular Bible reading, regular time in prayer, regularly serving in church, listening primarily to Christian music, participating in church mission trips, Christian best friend, several adults at church investing in them, parents regularly asking for forgiveness, parents pointing out biblical principles in everyday life. Are we doing all we can to help parents disciple their kids? What practical changes can we make to better encourage parents and kids in their faith? Top spiritual activities when growing up Source: Nothing Less: Engaging Kids in a Lifetime of Faith by Jana Magruder and LifeWayResearch.com 9
17% Nondenominationals almost doubled from 2000 to 2016 climbing from 9 percent to 17 percent. A Gallup study finds the percentage of Americans who identify with a specific Protestant denomination has fallen from 50 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2016. That can be tied to a surge in Americans who say they have no religious preference and those who say they are nondenominational Protestants. From 2000 to 2016, nones rose from 10 percent to 20 percent, while nondenominationals almost doubled as well climbing from 9 percent to 17 percent. As a whole, Protestants now make up less than half of the American population (47 percent), according to Gallup. What does the growth of nondenominationalism mean for our church? How can we reach people in our community who are skeptical of institutions, including churches and denominations? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/08/08/what-does-the-growth-of-nondenominationalism-mean/ 10
2016 Those Who Identify with Specific Protestant Denominations and Those Who Do Not Among national adult population Specific Protestant denomination 50% Non-specific Protestant 60 50 9% 30% 17% 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Protestants now make up 47% of the American population Gallup 2016 Breakdown of Specific Protestant Denominations Percent of national adult population who identify as the following: OTHER BAPTIST METHODIST 4% LUTHERAN 4% SOUTHERN BAPTIST 3% PRESBYTERIAN 2% PENTECOSTAL 2% CHURCH OF CHRIST 1% EPISCOPAL 1% OTHER 1% 10% 11 Source: GALLUP
68% Sixty-eight percent of churchgoers say it takes them 15 minutes or less to get from their home to their place of worship, according to research from the Baylor Religion Survey. Two in 10 (21 percent) say their drive is five minutes or less. Almost half (47 percent) say it takes them six to 15 minutes. Twenty-three percent commute 16 to 30 minutes. And only 9 percent say it takes them longer than 30 minutes to drive to church. Commute times are important because Baylor found half of Americans who live within 15 minutes of their place of worship report attending services weekly or more. As the distance increases, the likelihood of weekly attendance decreases, the report says. Fifty-three percent of those who live within five minutes attend weekly. Only 32 percent of those who live more than 30 minutes away do the same. How long of a commute to church does most of our congregation have? A re we doing a good job of reaching the people who live within 15 minutes of our church building? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/09/21/far-americans-drive-church/ 12
29% While many assume that increased education leads to decreased church attendance, almost a third of Americans with less than a high school diploma don t attend church. Among Americans with less than a high school diploma, almost 3 in 10 (29 percent) say they never attend church. High school graduates (25 percent) and those with at least some college (23 percent) are less likely to report they never attend. It s not a matter of belief but strictly one of religious attendance. While those with the least education are most likely to say they never attend religious services, they are also the most likely to say they know God exists and have no doubts, to say they believe the Bible is the Word of God, and to say they pray at least once a day. Is there anything about our church that may make individuals with less formal education feel unwelcome? How can our church reach out to the people in our community who have some Christian beliefs, but don t see the need to attend church? 13 Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/05/11/4-surprising-groups-not-showing-sunday/
24% Recent research shows 24 percent of Americans aged 25 to 32 7.9 million young adults lack an active relationship with one or both parents. The researchers note the lack of a parental figure is linked to other disadvantages in young adulthood, such as lower levels of education, poorer health, and more symptoms of depression. Dads are the ones most likely to be missing. Among young adults, 20 percent say they have no father figure, while 6 percent say they have no mother figure. Some have no relationship with either parent. The most common reason young adults didn t have a relationship with their father is either his death (9 percent) or never having had a father figure (7 percent). For those without a mother, it was mostly because she died (5 percent). Young adults are four times as likely to be estranged from their father as their mother. How is our church helping to strengthen families for the long haul? How can our church encourage and minister to young adults who have a poor relationship with one or both parents? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/07/27/missing-a-parent/ 14
28% Only 28 percent of Americans have a biblical understanding of sin and how to defeat it. Americans tend to fall into three categories when it comes to sin, according to LifeWay Research s representative survey of 1,000 Americans. A third (34 percent) of Americans say they are sinners and are working on being less sinful, while a quarter (28 percent) say they are sinners and rely on Jesus to overcome their sin. One in 10 say sin doesn t exist (10 percent) or that they are not sinners (8 percent), while a larger 15 percent prefer not to say if they are sinners at all. Among Americans: Which of the following best describes you? I am a sinner, and I am fine with that 5% I am a sinner, and I work on being less of one Only 1 in 20 are fine with being sinners (5 percent). 34% I am a sinner, and I depend on Jesus to overcome that How can our conversations with people who attend our church help us gauge their view of sin and Jesus as the solution? What should we listen for? How can we help them see their daily need of Jesus? I am not a sinner 28% 8% Sin doesn t exist 10% Prefer not to say 15% 15 Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/08/15/how-many-americans-think-theyre-sinners/
31% Almost a third of college freshmen say they have no religious preference. In the last 30 years, the number of incoming freshmen who say they are nonreligious has tripled, according to data from the annual Cooperative Institutional Research Program (CIRP) Freshmen Survey. According to the survey, 10 percent of college freshmen claimed to have no religious preference in 1986. Today, that number has grown to 31 percent. It includes those who say they are agnostic (9 percent), atheist (6 percent), or have no religious preference (16 percent). Much of the change can be tied to the decline of Christianity among young adults. The percentage of college freshmen who identify as part of a Christian denomination fell from 81 percent to 60 percent. Since 1987, affiliation with specific Christian denominations has also declined among incoming freshmen. Groups whose numbers fell include: What is our church doing to prepare teenagers to hold on to their faith? How can we reach for Christ some of those irreligious college students? ROMAN CATHOLICS down 13 points (36% to 23%) METHODISTS down 6 points (9% to 3%) BAPTISTS down 6 points (13% to 7%) LUTHERANS down 6 points (8% to 2%) Source: CIRP 16
34% Religion is facing a perception problem in the U.S. More than a third of Americans see it as old-fashioned. According to research from Gallup, 34 percent of Americans say religion is largely old-fashioned and out of date. That s up from 7 percent in 1957. Meanwhile, 55 percent of Americans believe religion can answer all or most of today s problems. That number has stabilized in the last couple of years after dropping to a record low of 51 percent in 2015. But it is down from 82 percent in 1957 and 66 percent just 15 years ago. The remaining 10 percent say they have no opinion on whether religion can solve problems today. Do you beleive that religion can answer all or most of today s problems, or that religion is largely old-fashioned and out of date? Among Americans Believe can answer Believe old-fashioned 82% 95 What if any man-made practices does our church do to perpetuate the idea that religion is old-fashioned? How can we maintain biblical doctrine, while adapting our ministry to modern culture? 75 61% 55% 55 34% 25% 35 7% 15-5 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 Source: GALLUP Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/06/19/growing-number-americans-say-religion-old-fashioned/ 17
38% Many Americans are more worried about their reputation than their conscience. More than a third say they worry less about guilt and fear and more about avoiding shame. Shame has become particularly powerful in American culture in the internet age, said Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research. A single mistake or embarrassing moment posted on social media can ruin a person s life. What s our biggest cultural fear? he asked. Shame. In a study from LifeWay Research, 38 percent of Americans say they avoid shame the most. Thirty-one percent say guilt, while 30 percent say fear. McConnell added, What s surprising is not that personal freedom, ambition, and doing the right thing are valued by Americans. It s that risk to our reputation is what matters most. Source: LIFEWAY RESEARCH What are practical and creative ways we can link the good news of the gospel to overcoming shame, in addition to freeing us from guilt and removing the fear of hell? Have we helped our congregation see how Christ conquers shame? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/05/23/in-internet-age-americans-most-worried-about-shame/ 18
83% Most church attenders say sermons are the primary reason they choose a congregation. And not just any sermons, but sermons focused on the Bible. Gallup asked Americans who attend a place of worship at least monthly the reason for choosing that place. Three-quarters (76 percent) say sermons that teach more about Scripture were a major factor. Among Protestant church attenders, Scripture-focused sermons are even more important. More than 8 in 10 (83 percent) say messages that teach about the Bible are a major factor in their church decision. Sermons that help connect faith to life are a major reason for 80 percent. Fewer Protestants credit programs for children and teenagers (68 percent), community outreach and volunteer opportunities (61 percent), or dynamic leaders (53 percent) as major factors for their church selection. Do we make Scripture-focused sermons the emphasis of our worship service? How can we weave more Bible into our services and other regular activities, and therefore into the lives of those in attendance? 19 Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/04/20/surprising-reason-people-choose-church/
109% Those 50 and older saw a 109 percent jump in divorces. A Pew Research study of data from the National Center for Health Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau reveals divorce is on the decline among 25- to 39-year-olds, increasing slightly among those 40 to 49, and rising sharply among the older. Among the youngest individuals, the divorce rate fell 21 percent from 1990 to 2015. Middle-aged couples saw their divorce rates climb 14 percent. Those 50 and older saw a 109 percent jump in divorces. And among those 65 and older, the divorce rate has roughly tripled. It is still true that the youngest are the most likely to get divorced and the oldest are the least likely. In 2015, for 1,000 married people ages 25 to 39, 24 divorced. For 40- to 49-year-olds, 21 per 1,000 ended their marriages. Among those 50 and older, 10 divorced. And for those 65 and older, 6 people divorced. What practical steps can our church take to strengthen marriages, both new and old? How can our church leadership model healthy marriages? 20
Source: PEW RESEARCH CENTER 21 Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/03/23/divorce-rate-doubles-among-older-adults/
68% Once wary of technology, Protestant churches now seem all in. Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research Seven in 10 Protestant churches (68 percent) provide Wi-Fi for both guests and staff, according to a new survey of Protestant senior pastors from LifeWay Research. Most also have a website (84 percent) and a Facebook page (84 percent). But few churches have ventured on Twitter (16 percent). Once wary of technology, Protestant churches now seem all in, said Scott McConnell, executive director of LifeWay Research. It s another way to connect with guests and worshipers alike. Not long ago churches use of technology was often limited to a website that functioned like the Yellow Pages or a bulletin board, said McConnell. Now they see technology as a way to interact with people. Wi-Fi is just one more way to do that. Are we leveraging technology to best serve our people and reach our community? What new technological tools can we use this year to help us better accomplish our goals? Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2018/01/09/churches-like-facebook-dont-follow-twitter/ 22
90% LifeWay Research found most pastors (90 percent) say their church would welcome a sermon on racial reconciliation. Seven percent disagree, while 3 percent aren t sure. While 45 percent have preached on racial reconciliation in the last three months, few pastors have been criticized for speaking about race. Five percent say they d received negative feedback for addressing racial reconciliation from the pulpit in the last two years. Eighty-four percent received no negative feedback. Ten percent haven t spoken about the topic. Yet few churches seem enthusiastic about discussing issues of race, according to their pastors. About three-quarters of pastors (73 percent) say they have not been urged by church leaders to preach about reconciliation. About a quarter (26 percent) have been urged to preach on the issue. HAVE LEADERS IN YOUR CHURCH URGED YOU TO PREACH ABOUT RACIAL RECONCILIATION? Among Protestant pastors When was the last time we preached a sermon on racial reconciliation? How can our church do more to speak about and demonstrate the unity of Christ across all boundaries, including race? No 73% Yes 26% Source: LIFEWAY RESEARCH Not sure 1% Source: https://factsandtrends.net/2017/03/30/pastors-say-churches-are-open-to-racial-reconciliation-sermons/ 23
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