Understanding the Principles of Terrorism Risk Modelling from the Charlie Hebdo Attack in Paris presented by Dr. Gordon Woo and RMS 24 April 2015 Terrorism: A Thinking Man s Game This is a thinking man s game. Especially when one is as poor as the Popular Front is. It would be silly for us to even think of waging a regular war. We will continue our present strategy. It s a smart one, you see. George Habash (1970)
Principle B: Principle A: Macro-Terror Attacks Leverage Maximum Impact The Charlie Hebdo attack on 7 January 2015 was the most significant terrorist attack on French soil in forty years. Publicity Impact is Key to Targeting Terrorism thrives on the oxygen of publicity
Half of Jihad is media Principle C: Target Substitution Displaces Terrorist Threat
Displacement of the Terrorist Threat Like killing Voltaire Principle D: An attack against the French republic itself - President Hollande Terrorists Follow the Path of Least Resistance in Choice of Weaponry A common terrorist weapon attack type involves the use of light military arms.
Following the Path of Least Resistance The great principle is that, in producing its effects, Nature acts always according to the simplest paths. Pierre de Maupertuis, 1746 Now an army may be likened to water, for just as water avoids heights, and hastens to the lowlands, so an army avoids strength and strikes weakness. Sun Tzu, The Art of War ISIL have choosen soft targets and avoided well defended positions, moving like a serpent through rocks.
Principle E: Too Many Terrorists Spoil the Plot Cell Size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Plot Interdiction Probability 0.26 0.46 0.60 0.70 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.95 For a large operation against the US, pick a number of brothers not to exceed ten... Pakistan Osama bin Laden Abottabad Social Network Plot Constraints For terrorism in countries with effective intelligence services, hazard events are subject to the universal law of social networks, which apply as much to terrorists as to other groups in society.
Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev If you can t carry out the plot as a lone wolf, the next best strategy is to enlist your kid brother... William Plotnikov Compact French Conspiracy Zubeidat Tsarnaev Chérif and Saïd Kouachi; Amedy Coulibaly All three operatives were members of the Buttes-Chaumont gang of Jihadis
Principle F: Event Frequency is Calculable through Interdiction Analysis Since 9/11, the vast majority of major terrorist plots in North America, Western Europe and Australia have been interdicted Copyright 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May 11, 2015 15 Terrorism Insurance is Effectively Insurance against the failure of Counter-terrorism mass surveillance is essential to deny terrorists the freedom to attack at will Andrew Parker, director-general of MI5 Edward Snowden
Contact Chaining Aggregated webs of known terrorists close in on any operatives planning new attacks Post-9/11 US Plot Success Probabilities 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Transatlantic plane bomb plots Times Square Bomb plot Plots are defined unambiguously in terms of terrorist court convictions. 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 18
Principle G: Post-Attack Response is a Control Feedback Jean-Claude Juncker, has already promised a new program of counterterrorism legislation. 2,680 new jobs are being created in the French intelligence services over three years. Principle H: The Islamist Extremist Threat is Long-Term An older generation of terrorists is influential in perpetuating violence. Copyright 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May 11, 2015 20
Radicalizing the Next Generation Abu Hamza Djamel Beghal The Arab Autumn Chérif Kouachi Amedy Coulibaly
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