OIL GAME IN WEST ASIA BY Saurabh Pandey Junior research fellow(jrf) NET, MA, B.TECH 3 Years teaching experience UPSC Faculty
SECURE MAINS Ques. How India's Look west policy can facilitate to establish its interest in west Asia.?
Ques. Strait of Hormuz link which of the two water bodies? A) Persian gulf and gulf of Oman B) Persian gulf and Red sea C) Persian Gulf and Bab al mandeb. D)Red sea and Gulf of Oman
What is geopolitics? the study of the way a country's size, position, etc. influence its power and its relationships with other countries. political activity as influenced by the physical features of a country or area of the world
West Asia
Oil producing countries
CONFLICT IN WEST ASIA As sectarian Shia-Sunni and Arab-Persian-Israeli rivalries dominate the geo-politics of our western neighbourhood today.
DURING 1970 S The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, announced an oil boycott of countries like Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, the US and the UK, considered to be pro-israeli. who found themselves squeezed by an Arab embargo in oil supplies. A cash-strapped India found itself in a desperate economic situation, as oil prices rose rapidly from $3 to $ 43 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia demanded that New Delhi close the Israeli Consulate in Mumbai, or face an Arab oil boycott. An enraged Prime Minister Indira Gandhi refused to comply. India emerged relatively unscathed, thanks to developments like oil supplies from the Soviet Union, the discovery of Bombay High oil and gas and assistance by the Shah of Iran, who enjoyed a cosy relationship with Israel.
TODAY S SCENARIO. With the discovery of shale oil/gas in the US and Canada, huge oil reserves in Venezuela, untapped shale gas reserves in Argentina, and with Mexico adding to world oil supplies, North America and parts of Europe are relatively immune to blackmail. This is more so, as Russian oil and gas contribute to meeting energy demands in Europe and across Eurasia.
Saudi Arabia is now forced to seek Russian cooperation for regulating world energy supplies. The major markets for oil supplies from the Arab/Persian Gulf countries are China (8.4 million bpd barrels per day), India (4.4 million bpd) and Japan (3.4 million bpd). Iran is quite evidently seeking to become the dominant power in the Islamic world.
. The Islamic Revolution and advent of the Islamic Republic in Iran has led to a drastic downturn in Iran s relations with Israel. Tel Aviv has fomented hostility to Iran across the world. Iran, in turn, has behaved irresponsibly towards Israel, backing the radical Palestinian group Hamas and the Hezbollah in Lebanon, while calling for the destruction of Israel
Iran has also sought to change the balance of power in the Arab world, challenging Saudi pre-eminence.. our relations with the Arab Gulf States, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have improved significantly, with the Saudis even permitting Air India over-flights to Israel.
the oil rich Gulf region is volatile and tense, given Saudi intervention in neighbouring Yemen. ----bitter conflict with Iranian backed Yemeni rebels. There is today a significant Shia-Sunni dimension in rivalries across across the Arab world.
With the American intervention in Iraq leading to majority Shia rule there, its effect is being inevitably felt in Shia ruled, Sunni majority Syria, where the Russians have intervened decisively in favour the Iranian backed Assad regime, forcing the Americans on the back-foot. India has wisely stayed away from any participation in this rivalry. Iraq is now our largest supplier of oil, overtaking Iran and even Saudi Arabia
Venezuela has an important role to play in India s oil imports. The US will soon become the largest producer of oil and gas in the world. Gas supplies from the US have now commenced and are set to grow significantly.
. India need not to become overdependent on any single country. While doing so, we have avoided getting involved in regional rivalries, tensions and conflicts in the Islamic world.
To ensure the safety and security of Indian nationals living there. We are preparing to develop a significant storage capacity of petroleum in the event of any cut off of oil supplies because of regional tensions. We are today, a significant exporter of refined petroleum products, estimated at $35.9 billion in 2017.
Look west policy An independent approach to the region Is a commitment to omni-directional engagement Sustained diplomatic outreach The centrality of Pakistan An enduring commitment to stability in Afghanistan Accelerate economic integration Defence diplomacy Coping with territorial changes in the Gulf
WHETHER OIL GAME WITHOUT OIL IS SUSTAINABLE?