Global Conflict & Terrorism International Security Influencers in 2012 Cross County Patriots 17 April 2012 Phil Hamilton Intl Security & Defense Business Operations, M&A 1
Agenda Understanding Key Terms & Impact on National Strategy Elements of Power Center of Gravity Regional Terrorism & Conflict Influencing Issues for the USA Specific focus on Middle East & Africa Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood Across MENA Mexico A Near Failed State on Our Southern Border Q & A Prepared to discuss experiences: MENA West Africa DOS, DHS & DOD Impact on economy and the election 2
The Elements of Power The ability to influence or shape the behavior of others to get a desired outcome. Economic Diplomatic Military Used by both nation states and non-state actors Information Our national security strategy uses these elements of power to shape the desired outcomes of our foreign policy. 3
The Elements of Power Economic: The use of wealth, spending and taxation, policy on money supply and interest rates, trade policy, tariffs and agreements, and of sanctions. A strong measure of a nation s stability. Diplomatic: Influencing the international situations through agreements, negotiations, and engagement with foreign nations, the UN, and Non- Governmental/International Organizations. Informational: The ability to acquire and assess information, then project the desired messages to the right people, at the right time. The technological evolution of information projection. Military: The armed forces of a nation, it s ability to project superior power in on land, over the seas, and in the air, regionally or globally. The military technological and skills advantages of particular nation, and their ability to support or sustain military operations. 4
Center of Gravity In implementing an effective national security strategy, in order to conduct a proper analysis and development of options, messages, policies and execute strategic decisions, one must also understand the concept of Center of Gravity: The critical capabilities to cause action, the critical requirements or conditions that support the capability s function, and the critical vulnerabilities to attack that would cause the capabilities to cease functioning. Today the elements of power are being used effectively by non-nation state actors some supported by nation s and others not. Today, does the US have a clear national strategy? Has yesterday s strategy been effective? 5
International Concerns Put in Terms of Power Islamic evolution, the struggle within Islam a silent apartheid o Arab Spring evolving in 2012 o Radical Islam vs. moderates around the world o Nation states vs. movements and global organizations Terrorism: nation supported, the evolvement of Al Qaeda, & home grown Iraq & Afghanistan the politics of our exit strategy Threats to US business continuity, national wealth and economic power o Europe & China EU monetary policy & Germany, US & global debt to China o Petroleum resources, global market and transport Chokepoints Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Suez Canal, & refining Africa corruption, environmental disaster, terrorism Power of the internet informational power at speed of light There is an Intertwining of Events for US Strategies and Policy 6
The Access to Petroleum as a US National Interest and where are the threats & conflicts? Types of Crude Very Important Light, Heavy, Sweet & Sour Ranking Proven Oil Reserves 1 Venezuela 2 Saudi Arabia (GCC) 3 Canada 4 Iran 5 Iraq (increasing) 6 Mexico (new US-Mexico pact) 7 Kuwait (GCC) 8 UAE (GCC) 9 Russia 10 Libya 11 Nigeria 12 Kazakhstan 13 Qatar (GCC) 14 China (needs large imports) 15 - USA 16 Brazil 17 Azerbaijan 18 Angola 19 Algeria 20 India (needs large imports) 21 South Sudan 22 Norway 23 Ecuador 24 Oman (GCC) 25 Ghana (increasing) 7
Al Qaeda Al Qaeda in Maghreb Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula AL Qaeda in Iraq Hamas, Hezbollah & the Muslim Brotherhood Iran s expansion of power base Israel - Lebanon Israel - Palestinian Israel Egypt Lebanon - Syria Libya after Arab Spring US withdrawal strategy Growing Piracy Shia-Sunni Taliban Syria s Spring AQIM Influencing Threats MENA+ The View Approaching 2011 19 countries including Afghanistan and Pakistan Europe Mediterranean Ocean AQIM & MB Turkey Israel Red Sea AQI S hia on Sunni Strait of Hormuz Russia AQ & Taliban China India Sub-Saharan Africa North o Very high unemployment, large youth segments o Need for huge economic investments South o Many with huge oil, gas, and petrochemical industries o Regions of distinct haves and have nots silent apartheid o Center of gravity in fight against terrorism o Center of gravity for world and US economy o Center of gravity for US foreign policy & military action o Above issues expanding into West Africa (22% of US oil imports) Sudan Gulf of Aden Horn of Africa AQAP Piracy Arabian Sea 25% of world s oil flows from GCC, Iraq & Iran Indian Ocean 22% of US oil imports 8
Middle East Iranian nuclear development Nuclear Israel GCC + Iran & Iraq hold 56% & 40% of world s proven oil & gas reserves o Largest customers Europe & China o Iraq increasing, possible become #1 Threat to Strait of Hormuz Syrian civil conflicts Middle East Peace Process o Palestinians o Israel o Syria (Alawite) o Lebanon o Jordan o Egypt & o Hamas & Fatah (both Sunni) o Hezbollah (Shia) o Arab League o Iran influence o Sunni vs. Shia Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) o US, UN, EU, Russia Quartet AQAP AQI Arab Spring & Derivatives Unified GCC Other nuclear developments (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt) AQI AQAP If U.S. Foreign Policy were played on the Starship Enterprise Mr. Spock would have trouble playing this chess game 9
Muslim Brotherhood Much More Than Just Egypt "God is our objective; the Quran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader; Jihad is our way; and death for the sake of God is the highest of our aspirations. One of the largest and most influential Islamic groups o Evolved from militant group to providing support for democratic principles o Egypt, Sudan, and Hamas examples of militant actions now condemned as moderate o Global information center in London Sunni controlled, follows and promotes Sharia Law, Egypt-based, found in and financially supported by all major Islamic countries Model for political activism and community charitable work Wants to supplant Iran as major influence in Middle East o Asserting strong influence over Hamas o Withdrew Egypt s support of Syrian government o Playing an active political role in Arab Spring across MENA 10
Iran as a Regional Power Iranian nuclear development process & leverage is North Korean model o Ayatollah s fatwa building a nuclear bomb is not Islamic Crisis in Iran sanctions, inflation, discontent, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Ayatollah & the President Ayatollah is the Commander in Chief Threat to Strait of Hormuz We ve been there before - 86-87 o Exocet missiles o Iranian patrol boats o Reflagging tankers & providing escorts Swarming boats & missiles Physical size of sea lanes Sanctions against Iran o 2006 - Enrichment & nuclear materials proven o 2007 - Arms embargo and froze assets o 2008 - Frozen assets & monitoring of banking o 2010 Ban ballistic missiles & more frozen assets/funds o 2011/12 - Oil embargoes & freezing assets of Iranian Central Bank o China cuts oil from Iran by 50% Region = 56% Oil & 40% Gas Reserves + Petrochemicals Sanctions Targeting 80% of Iran s Economy But After 10 Years of U.S.-led War Who is Winner? Shipping Passage 21 Miles Wide 25% of World s Oil Flow 11
African Interests Vast resources Oil, gas, & minerals Extensive poverty Extensive corruption Weak governments Lack strategy, planning, standards Islamic fundamentalism o AQIM o Boko Haram o Terrorist Training North Africa Arab Spring Growing piracy o Ransoms in east o Attacks in west USG sees a Chafrica o China s - Let s make a deal o China s naval forces o Growing roles for DOS & AFRICOM Piracy #3 in World Threats & Resources AQIM Boko Haram North South AQI Shabbab AQAP Piracy #1 in World Now Think about Iran & China in South America 12
Mexico Possibly a Failed State Already They are a large source of oil and gas for US They have nuclear energy Extensive corruption at all levels of government Govt lost control of vast areas of the country Latin America s 2d largest economy Largest recorded meth bust in the world 15T o Transnational Criminal Organization, but o Mexico becoming a true cartel for drug trade Violence spilling over the border o Shootings o Theft o Human trafficking o Continuity of business 13
Thank You Q & A 14