SISA Report no. 14-2014 Impact from Syria s War On Militancy in FATA Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, Qayum Khan 1 Oslo, February 2014
Centre for International and Strategic Analysis SISA 2014 All views expressed in the report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Centre for International and Strategic Analysis. The text may not be printed in full or part without the permission of the author. Queries can be directed to: Centre for International and Strategic Analysis Phone: (+47) 932 49 083 E- mail: info@strategiskanalyse.no Internet: www.strategiskanalyse.no
Introduction 2 Foreign fighters have always remained a source of strength for the militants in the AfPak region ever since the Soviet- Afghan war. The power vacuum, created after the withdrawal of Russian forces from Afghanistan, was filled by the Taliban. They were later on joined by foreign militant outfits including al- Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Chechen militants, Turkistan Islamic Party of China and Jundullah of Iran besides various Pakistani Jihadist organizations. The US invasion of Afghanistan apparently dispersed the Taliban but provided them an ample opportunity to reorganize themselves in the remote areas of eastern Afghanistan and the loosely Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan s northwest. The local sympathizers in FATA were attracted to militancy due to the Islamic slogans of the militants and the foreign invasion of a neighboring Muslim country, Afghanistan. Consequently, the local militant group, Tehrik- e- Taliban Pakistan or Movement of Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) emerged on the scene. The TTP considered the Pakistani government and the US equally responsible for toppling the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Therefore, their task is to avenge the fall of the Afghan Taliban government from their base in Pakistan, as the Haqqani Network does in Afghanistan besides fighting agiants the US forces. The foreign fighters equally provide manpower, financial assistance and training to the militants along the Durand Line. Sectarian Outlook of Pakistani Taliban: Muslim countries, especially Pakistan and the Gulf states, have been the worst victims of sectarianism since 1980. The sectarian rift has been widening day by day. Anwaar- ul- Haq Kakar, a leading political analyst said: The sectarian contest in the post Iranian revolution has left a deep impression on the entire Middle East, which also engulfed Pakistan. Its glorious exhibition is witnesses by radical views, which is supplemented by abundance of weaponry in the region. Authorities are unable to diagnose the problem in the right context, and that is not bringing the correct remedy. 3 Pakistan has been facing the problem of sectarianism as various Sunni and Shiite groups are involved in reciprocal violence against each other. However, the TTP has a different agenda and their main target is the security forces of Pakistan. Jan Achakzai, the spokesman of Jamat Ulema- e- Islam (F- JUI), 4 Pakistan s largest religio- political party, 3
said: Though they (the Taliban) are mainly Sunni by sect but they do not subscribe to sectarian agenda. They do not even support the main Sunni religio- political outfit of the extreme brand. Militant outfits with sectarian outlook might have connections with them. But the Taliban are mainly insurgent groups, generally targeting state authorities and installations. 5 Effect of Sectarian War on Militancy in FATA Al- Qaeda, the main provider of Arab fighters to the militants in AfPak region, is shifting its focus towards the Middle East due to the sectarian strife in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The local Jihadist groups in the AfPak region want to cooperate with al- Qaeda at this juncture. Resultantly, the whole scenario is affecting the militancy in FATA, which is evident from the TTP s interest in the dialogue with the government of Pakistan. FATA based journalist, Rasool Dawar says, The sectarian war in Syria and Iraq has given way to new perspective. On one hand, al- Qaeda is changing its focus from the AfPak region to the Middle East. On the other hand, the Taliban think that they should return the sacrifices of al- Qaeda by assisting the organization in its fight against the Assad regime. This whole scenario will gradually decrease militancy in FATA. 6 Commenting on the Sectarian war in the Middle Eastern countries, another FATA based journalist Zahid Khan said, NATO is about to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. The Pakistani government is also approaching the TTP for dialogues. Therefore, al- Qaeda thinks that the TTP and the Afghan Taliban will need their little assistance. 7 However, a religious scholar of North Waziristan, Maulana Din Muhammad considers that the strife in Syria and Iraq will have a small effect on the militancy in FATA as the local militants have already increased in number and they need no more assistance from foreign fighters. 8 But he adds, If it is true that the Pakistani Taliban are fighting against Assad s forces in Syria, it will further flourish the decade old bond between Al- Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban both ideologically and operationally. 9 Recruits from ME and Europe in FATA: Al- Qaeda is the main source of recruitment for the Jihadists in the Middle East for the purpose of fighting Holy War in order to overthrow dictatorial regimes across the 4
region. Their shifted focus is diminishing the flow of recruits to FATA- based militant groups from countries across the Middle East and the greater Muslim world. FATA based journalist Shahid Orakzai said that al- Qaeda has been providing fighters and financial support to the Taliban during their fight against the NATO forces much like how they provided aid to Mujahedeen during Soviet- Afghan war. 10 He added: Al- Qaeda s shift of focus will divert the fighters of the Middle Eastern and the European countries to Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which will lessen the foreign recruits in FATA. 11 Al- Qaeda was more active in FATA before 2007; it has been sending fewer recruits to the tribal areas as the local groups already have an ample number of fighters. Tribal journalist Zaheer Afridi said that al- Qaeda will be sending substantially less, or no Arab fighters at all, to the tribal areas due to its increasing involvement in sectarian wars in the Middle East. 12 Pakistani Taliban in Syria Previously, Iranian and now Pakistani Media are persistently reporting that the Pakistani Taliban has set up a camp in Syria in order to assist the al- Qaeda linked groups in their fight against Assad forces. Iranian media surfaced allegations that Turkey, in collaboration with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Qatar under the supervision of the CIA and other Western intelligence agencies has been sending planeloads of Waziristan based militants (Taliban and al- Qaeda) to the Turkish- Syrian border to fight against Assad forces inside Syria. The Turkish intelligence agency sent 93 Al- Qaeda and Taliban terrorists from Waziristan to Hatay province near the border with Syria on a Turkish Air airbus flight No. 709 on September 10, 2012 and via the Karachi- Istanbul flight route," the FARS news agency claimed on September 12, 2012 report citing an unnamed Turkish source. 13 The allegations that Turkey, Gulf Arab states, Western intelligence agencies and al- Qaeda are co- operating in fighting the regime of Bashar al- Assad are not new. What is new is the specific reference to the Waziristan- based militants. Unlike the militants of al- 5
Qaeda and other global Jihadi networks that have no known addresses, the militants of Waziristan can easily be reached. In light of these claims, the authors of this report decided to put the surfaced allegations in Iranian media before the Pakistani Taliban and intelligence officials and get their reactions. Thus, all the militants commanders from various factions, including pro - and anti- Pakistani government were contacted for this report; they vigorously refuted the allegations that their members were sent with the help of Turkey, any Arab state or CIA to Syria. These are mere allegations to malign our struggle. We do admit that our brothers are now stationed in Syria. We made all the arrangements with the help of Syrian Mujahedeen for their transportation, 14 a TTP- linked commander said on customary condition of anonymity. We have sent some brothers to join Jihad in Syria, along with our Syrian brothers, but the number is small so far, a leading commander in TTP said in an interview conducted in one of the seven tribal districts of Pakistan recently. The basic purpose is to analyze the ground situation and develop coordination with our Syrian brothers. We would put their findings before our central Shura for further course of actions. We have to consider that at the moment we are too busy at local fronts to dispatch hundreds of our members to Syria, he said. 15 Another militant commander having close affiliation with Al- Qaeda and currently based in North Waziristan admitted that he had trained militants who are now fighting in Yemen along with al- Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). 16 However, he said: I have not heard of anyone among our Mujahedeen from Waziristan who is currently fighting inside Syria. Our sources have confirmed to us that Mujahedeen from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant/al- Sham? (ISIL/S) have been helping their Syrian brothers physically, financially and logistically against the Assad regime. 17 If Iran and Hezbollah can help the Assad regime against oppressed Sunnis, he said, then the Mujahedeen of Iraq have also the right to assist their brothers and sisters in Syria. 18 The implication seemed that the Iraqis, by virtue of their strategic propinquity to Syria are better positioned to assist the Syrian rebels; nevertheless, had the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban been in a position to join the Syrian Jihad, they would do so openly. 6
The track record of Pakistani militants also shows that they never concealed the fact that they were helping the Afghan Taliban in their war against NATO. For sure, Waziristan based militants are not against helping the Syrians, including by fighting alongside them in Syria, but according to them: We are not in position to do so at this point. 19 We cannot leave the Afghan front now at its most decisive phase. We would be able to help our brothers in Syria once the Afghan war is over. We are not strong enough to open multiple fronts - our foremost duty is to fight Western forces in Afghanistan at the moment, 20 said an Afghan Taliban commander based in the Afghan province of Paktika. Citing the same anonymous source, the Iranian FARS News agency further claimed that al- Qaeda, backed by Turkey, the US and its regional Arab allies, had set up a camp in Northern Waziristan to train Jihadi terrorists and dispatch them to Syria via Turkish borders. 21 According to FARS, the camp in North Waziristan is not just a training camp, but also an active command and control center for terrorist activities against the Assad regime inside Syria. 22 Here in Waziristan, the allegations are given a short shrift. How could the Taliban fight America so ferociously with limited resources and outreach, and at the same time organize and run a training camp, and a command and control center under its command? A senior Pakistan intelligence official based in the Pakistani tribal area nullified the reports and termed it a malicious propaganda against the state: We have been tightened the militants nose in North Waziristan and due to our strict measures their activities have been very much contained. The TTP and al- Qaeda are our state declared enemies and we have launched so many operations against them, so how could it be possible to train them or facilitate them at any level. We have zero tolerance policy for both the outfits, 23 the intelligence official said on condition of anonymity as he is not authorized to speak publically. But on the other hand, a pro- government Pakistani Taliban faction, the Mullah Nazir group, admitted their complicity in Syrian conflict and vowed that they would continue helping their Syrian brothers with all possible resources in future as well. 7
"Syrian Mujahedeen are our ideological brothers and fighting against a common enemy. These Arab brothers helped us in the past with their blood and money so how can we remain behind. We have been supporting them in Yemen and Somalia and now we are doing so in Syria as well. On Syrian issue, all FATA- based Mujahedeen factions are on the same page whether they are pro- government or anti- government. We have trained and dispatched hundreds of our local Mujahedeen along with Arab brothers to Syria. They are fighting at the forefront in Syria against Hezbollah and Assad forces," 24 a leading militant commander affiliated with the Mullah Nazir group said in an interview in South Waziristan. In an interview in May, 2011 with Mullah Nazir, a pro- government Taliban commander, killed in US drone strike on January 2, 2013 in Angoor Adda and whose group wields sway over the South Waziristan s largest town, Wana, admitted that his fighters were fighting in Yemen and Somalia along with Al Qaeda. 25 "As an Islamic fighter you cannot confine your cause and fight in geographical boundaries. We would fight with all possible resources against the enemy if it meets basics of our cause, where ever it is," 26 Mullah Nazir said. Recently sacked spokesman of the Pakistani Taliban, Ehsanullah Ehsan also refuted the reports when contacted, though he said that in the future the TTP would plan to send its members to other countries in order to facilitate the emergence/ growth/ organization? of other Islamist militant organizations. At the moment we don t have any presence in Syria or Turkey. I have also asked my leadership about the authenticity of the report but they also denied it, 27 Ehsan said. Reports about the sending of militants from the Gul Badar group to Syria were also circulated in North Waziristan when the news about the presence of Pakistani Taliban was aired by various media groups across the world. A local of Mirali Naeemullah Dawar said: A group of the Hafiz Gul Badar s Taliban were absent for a few weeks from Mirali and Miranshah. People are perceiving that they have been sent to Syria. 28 Conclusion: It seems that Pakistani- based militants are now losing ideological grounds among the populace in Pakistan. As their fight against Pakistani authorities is becoming 8
increasingly difficult to justify, they have found other battle grounds with ample ideological support to their cause across the Muslim world. Their decades old links with foreign militants groups are encouraging them to assist the latter in their struggle in other regions. This evolution can be observed in the TTP s interest in renewed peace negotiations with the Pakistani government. Use of force has arguably increased militancy in the tribal areas. If the same strategy is continued, the local militants will be seeking assistance of the foreign fighters to continue their activities. Today, if the Pakistani Taliban is assisting al- Qaeda in Syria, tomorrow they might fight for Jundullah in Iran, for the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Uzbekistan, for Turkistan Islamic Party in China, and so on. The Pakistani militants may become mercenaries in such a situation. 9
Endnotes 1 The Writer is Islamabad based Broadcaster and Researcher 2 The report has been funded through a grant from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (NMFA). All views expressed are those of the authors. 3 Telephonic interview with Anwar- Ul- Haq, a leading political analyst 4 Translated as into English as: Assembly of Islamic Clergy. The F stands for its leader: Fazal-ur-Rehman 5 Interview with Jan Achakzai, the spokesman of JUI(F), Pakistan s largest religio- political party 6 Interviewed with FATA based journalist Rasool Dawar 7 Interview with FATA based journalist Zahid Khan 8 Interview with Maulana Din Muhammad of North Waziristan. Local Taliban outfits seek his guidance for their court decisions. 9 Ibid 10 Interview with FATA based journalist Shahid Orakzai 11 Ibid 12 Interview with tribal journalist Zaheer Afridi 13 Report of the FARS, the Iranian news agency on September 12, 2012 14 Interview with a TTP linked commander, who talked on the conditions of not to be named 15 Interview with a leading TTP commander, who talked on the condition of anonymity 16 Interview with an al- Qaeda affiliated commander 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Conversation with a Taliban commander, who talked anonymously 20 Interview with Afghan Taliban commander based in Paktika province of Afghanistan 21 Supra Note 11 22 Ibid 23 Interview with an intelligence official, who said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to talk publically. 24 Interview with a South Waziristan based leading Mullah Nazir group commander 25 Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud interview Mullah Nazir in May, 2011 26 Ibid 27 Telephonic contact with recently sacked TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan 28 Interview with a local of Mirali, Naeemullah Dawar 10