Study Guide Committee: Political Topic: The Question of the Conflict in Syria Introduction: The Syrian conflict has been a continuous presence in the news since 2011, and is rapidly evolving. The conflict has evolved from discontent with the regime of Bashar Al-Assad to what is widely regarded as a proxy war between the United States and Russia, including their respective allies. However, it must be appreciated that the situation is more than two parties. Conflict is occurring between the Kurdish people, Turkish government, Islamic State, Opposition forces, the Syrian Government, the United States, Russia, Israel and various individual Jihadist groups. Further complicating the conflict are citizens of other countries traveling to Syria to partake in the war. A massive humanitarian crisis has occurred, and continues to today. Millions of refugees have left Syria and traveled to countries around the globe ; countries where they may not be welcome. Finding a resolution to this war is surely one of the most pressing issues for the United Nations, but delegates must be careful to avoid disrupting countries sovereignty. Definition of Key Terms: IS/Islamic State - Known as Daesh, Islamic State in Iraq/Syria/The Levant, this group has existed since 1999 to establish a caliphate in the Levant with fundamentalist ideals. It is classified as a terrorist organisation by many governments. It gained key recognition in 2014. Arab Spring - Revolutionary protests, both violent and non-violent, that occurred throughout the Middle East and North Africa between 2010 and 2012 aimed at bringing democracy to these nations, many of whom were ruled by authoritarian leaders. The protests were accepted or rejected by the governments with varying degrees of severity. Sunni - The largest denomination of Islam by number practicing; they believe that the successor of Muhammad was rightfully elected as no one was designated prior to his death. Shia - The second denomination of Islam by number practicing; they believe that the successor of Muhammad was not rightful as Muhammad designated one prior to his death. Countries with majority Shia are Iraq and Iran. Terrorism - The intentional use of indiscriminate violence, often against civilians, by a group or individual to create fear or terror among the populace and increase attention for the issue in the name of which violence is perpetrated. Religious Extremism - Obsessive enthusiasm on an individual s part with regards to their religion. It is often associated with violence in the name of the religion. 1
Contextual Information: The Syrian conflict stems from the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, when a group of 13-year-old boys in Daraa wrote The government must go! on the side of their school as a cry for democracy. They were arrested and tortured, causing many to protest. President Bashar al- Assad, who until 2011 ruled as a dictator, dispelled these protests with extreme force. However, through the summer of 2011 demonstrations continued across the country and Assad began to send tanks into cities and allowed regime forces to open fire on civilians. An opposition began to form as thousands of Syria s army soldiers left the government to fight against them. At this time, the UN warned Syria was verging on a civil war and there should be immediate action. By 2012 the UN Security Council tried to pass a resolution to stop human rights violations in Syria, but it was blocked by Russia and China. In the capital, Damascus, and other cities throughout Syria like Aleppo, the Free Syrian Army began to form from the opposition. (Damascus and Aleppo is where the greatest fighting occurs.) A major factor influencing the Syrian conflict is the ethnic division among the population. Membership of a religious community is determined by birth. 75% of Syrians are Sunni Muslims, 10% are Alawites (Shia), 10% are Christians and 3% are Druze. President Assad belongs to the Alawites minority. The religious divide in Syria 2
Another major factor of influence is the expansion of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (an organisation that grew from al-qaeda in Iraq). These terrorist groups have taken advantage of the chaos in Syria and have recruited people to conduct attacks. The actions of terrorist organisations has caused much destruction in Syria, by deepening both the political and humanitarian destruction. "The Syrian Civil War is arguably the worst humanitarian crisis since the Second World War, with over a quarter million killed, roughly the same number wounded or missing, and half of Syria s 22 million population displaced from their homes. But more than that, Syria today is the largest battlefield and generator of Sunni-Shia sectarianism the world has ever seen, with deep implications for the future boundaries of the Middle East and the spread of terrorism. Andrew Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Political Map of Syria - November 2017 Major Countries and Organizations Involved: Syria The United States of America - strongly against Assad, they believe the only future for Syria is without Bashar al-assad as president. The USA supports the opposition (SNC) and provides military assistance to moderate rebels. 3
Saudi Arabia - since the country is ruled by a Sunni leader, they are thoroughly against President Assad (for religious reasons) and thus provide military and financial support to Syrian rebel groups. Russian Federation - as one of President Assad s key allies, Russia continues to provide weapons for the Syrian military, despite international criticism. They have also blocked many UN Security Council resolutions. Claiming that they were targeting IS and other terrorist organisations, Russia launched several airstrikes against the rebels. Turkey - they host many Syrian refugees and express opposition to President Assad (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said it was impossible for Syrians to "accept a dictator who has led to the deaths of up to 350,000 people"). Iran - due to its Shia majority, Iran has helped Syrian regime forces against the rebels and they are believed to spend billions of dollars to aid President Assad. As well as the UK, Egypt and Iraq United Nations Security Council (UNSC) - one of the six principal organs of the UN, its main role is to maintain international security and peace. It is the only UN organ with the authority to issue binding resolutions to member states. Syrian National Council (SNC) - established in August 2011, the aim of the SNC was to fight the Syrian government in the hope that they could end President Assad s rule and turn Syria into a democracy. Timeline of Events: April 21, 2011 - Al-Assad lifts the countries 48 year long state of emergency. He also abolished the Higher State Security Court and issues a decree regulating the right to peaceful protest, as one of the basic human rights guaranteed by the syrian constitution March 15, 2011 - Activists call for a Day of Rage across Syria, inspired by other popular uprisings across the Arab world. In February, several youths were arrested in the southern town of Daraa for writing graffiti calling for the downfall of the regime of President Bashar Assad. 4
March 23, 2011 - Protests continue in Daraa, and Syrian state media release images of guns, hand grenades, bullets and stacks of Syrian currency said to be seized from a mosque in the town. March 25, 2011 - Troops open fire on protesters in several cities and crowds clash on the streets of the capital of Damascus. April 26, 2011 - Thousands of soldiers backed by tanks and snipers open fire on civilians in Daraa and two other locations, according to witnesses. Armed security agents conduct houseto-house sweeps. Neighborhoods are sectioned off and checkpoints are erected. Electricity, water and cellphone services are cut. At least 11 people are killed and 14 others lay in the streets, either dead or gravely wounded. May 18, 2011 - The U.S. imposes sanctions on Assad and six senior Syrian officials for human rights abuses, freezing any assets they have in U.S. jurisdiction. The Swiss government passes a measure restricting arms sales to Syria and freezing the assets and banning the travel to Switzerland of 13 senior Syrian officials. Aug. 5, 2011 - After several days of a ferocious assault on the city of Hama, the epicentre of anti-regime protests, hundreds are left dead by Syrian security forces backed by tanks and snipers. Corpses are scattered in the streets and Hama hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties. President Barack Obama calls the reports horrifying. Aug. 18, 2011 - The United States, Britain, France and Germany and the European Union demand that Assad resign, saying he is unfit to lead. Oct. 4, 2011 - Russia and China veto a European-backed U.N. Security Council resolution that threatened sanctions against Syria if it didn t immediately halt its military crackdown against civilians. Nov. 27, 2011 - The Arab League overwhelmingly approves sanctions against Syria to pressure Damascus to end its crackdown, an unprecedented move by the League against an Arab state. Dec. 12, 2011 - U.N. rights chief Navi Pillay says more than 5,000 have died in the Syrian conflict. 5
Dec. 28, 2011 - Syrian security forces open fire on thousands of anti-government protesters in the central city of Hama, killing at least six people - one day ahead of a visit by Arab League observers on a mission to end the crackdown. The government also releases 755 prisoners following a report by Human Rights Watch accusing authorities of hiding hundreds of detainees from the observers. Jan. 6, 2912 - Exactly two weeks after twin bombings in Damascus, another explosion rips through a busy intersection and police bus in the capital, killing at least 25 people. Jan. 28, 2012 - The Arab League halts its observer mission in Syria because of escalating violence that killed nearly 100 people the past three days, as pro-assad forces battled dissident soldiers in a belt of suburbs on the eastern edge of Damascus in the most intense fighting yet so close to the capital. Feb. 4, 2012 - Russia and China veto a resolution in the U.N. Security Council that backed an Arab League plan that calls for Assad to step down. The double-veto outrages the U.S. and European council members who feared it would embolden the Assad regime. Feb. 26, 2012 - Syria holds a referendum on a new constitution, a gesture by Assad to placate the opposition. The West dismisses the vote as a sham. The next day, activists say the death toll from nearly a year of unrest has surpassed 8,000, with most of the victims civilians. March 1, 2012 - Syrian troops take control of Baba Amr after a government assault that raged for weeks. The rebels retreat, having run low on weapons under unbearable humanitarian conditions. Syria s main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, forms a military council to organize and unify all armed resistance. March 15, 2012 - On the first anniversary of the start of the uprising, thousands march in a pro-assad rally in Damascus. Tanks and snipers continue to besiege Daraa. The U.N. secretary-general says more than 8,000 have been killed in the crackdown. Relevant UN Treaties and Events: Resolution 2042, 14 April 2012: Security Council Authorises Advance Team to Monitor Ceasefire in Syria. At the same time the council called on the Government to pull back military forces from population centres and stop the use of heavy weaponry in those areas. The council also allowed a team to to liaise with the parties and to begin to report on the implementation of a full cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties. It also 6
stressed the need for authorities to allow immediate and unimpeded access of humanitarian aid to areas that require it. Resolution 2043, 21 April 2012: This resolution requested the aid of UNHCR to provide assistance to states requesting aid to deal with displaced syrian refugees, as well as establishing a UN supervision mission in Syria (named UNSMIS). Resolution 2059, 20 July 2012: The Security Council renewed the mandate for the UN supervision mission, UNSMIS. However it agreed no further renewals would be possible unless it was confirmed that the use of heavy weapons had been halted and the levels of violence significantly reduced. Resolution 2118, 27 September 2013: The resolution was introduced in response to the use of chemical weapons in a Damascus suburb on the 21st of August. The council endorsed the expeditious destruction of Syria s chemical weapons program including inspections to be instituted October 1st. If these conditions were not meant, Chapter VII measures would be imposed (action taken by all possible means to restore international peace). Syria was also prohibited from any activity including Chemical Weapons, enforced by the decision of the OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). Resolution 2139, 22 February 2014: This addresses the issue of increasing humanitarian aid in Syria, specifically surrounding the siege of populated areas, and condemned terrorist attacks associated with Al-Qaida and other terrorist groups. Resolution 2165, 14 July 2014: The Security council authorised the delivery of humanitarian aid across border and conflict lines as well as monitoring mechanisms. The Syrian representative stressed their government s compliance with the treaty and the fact that the suffering was caused by terrorists and aid given to them from the international community, calling for an end to this aid. Resolution 2209, 6 March 2015: The security council expressed condemnation of the use of chlorine gas and concern that chemical weapons had been used despite Resolution 2118. The ISSG, formed Autumn 2015 during the Vienna Talks : the International Syria Support Group is a co-chaired by US and Russia to find a diplomatic solution to the Syria Crisis. 7
Resolution 2254, 18 December 2015: This resolution set up a road map or timetable for UN-facilitated talks between the Syrian government and opposition members, including outlines for a national ceasefire following political progress in these talks. Joint Statement of the United States and the Russian Federation on Cessation of Hostilities in Syria, 22 February 2016: The two countries pledged their support to ending the Syrian conflict and to effectively implement the cessation of hostilities. Resolution 2268, 26 February 2016: This endorsed a deal announced in the Joint Statement by the United States and the Russian Federation. Resolution 2328, 19 December 2016: In response to the deteriorating situation in Aleppo, the Security council demanded that all parties including those involved in the conflict allow civilian evacuations to be monitored and the protection of civilians throughout the country from the UN and other relevant institutions. Resolution 2336, 31 December 2016: The resolution states the security council s support for the Russian Federation s and Turkey s efforts to end violence in Syria. This was in response to documents issued by these countries describing terms of a country wide ceasefire and the mechanism for this to occur. Possible Solutions: The Syrian Crisis is often cited as impossible to solve, not only because of terrorist involvement but also due to the extensive political forces at play in the conflict, including tensions between Russia and the US, as well as Shia Iran and the Sunni Gulf States. The interference of these countries has not only aided the war against ISIS, but also strengthened the positions of both the american backed rebels, and Russian backed Assad regime. At this time a simple option would be a peace treaty between the regime and the opposition, potentially resulting in the decentralisation of power. The US, Russia, Kurdish leaders and Assad have voiced support for this policy, however it would still be lead by Bashar al-assad. This is a key point for the US, preventing them from agreeing to the deal. An alternative would be a coalition government, or a power-sharing reime in which Syrians could turn to a model of constitutional democracy. However this could potentially lead to diminished political say of minorities, as the country is 70% Sunni Muslims. Furthermore the removal of Assad from power is increasingly unlikely, as it would likely require a large scale 8
intervention from the hands of the US. This is incredibly unlikely given the current political climate of the US and Russian opposition. The prospect of a divided Syria has not yet been directly addressed as most political powers are opposed to this solution. However if peace negotiations continue to fail and a military stalemate is reached it is possible that this solution may become viable. Bibliography: A timeline of some key events in Syrian uprising: http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/16/200987.html I am Syria; Conflict Background: http://www.iamsyria.org/conflict-background.html Ethnio-religious divides in Syria: http://www.geocurrents.info/geopolitics/syrias-ethnoreligious-complexity-and-potential-turmoil Joint Statement of the United States and the Russian Federation, as Co-Chairs of the ISSG, on Cessation of Hostilities in Syria: https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/jointstatement-united-states-and-russian-federation-co-chairs-issg The international Syria support group: http://syriainstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/issg-cheat-sheet-secure.pdf The position of key countries (Russia, US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23849587 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28148943 Article on US intervention with the Syrian Rebels http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/18/pentagon-wasted-500-million-syrian-rebels/ Why Bashar al-assad is still president: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/syria-basharal-assad-power-160904081138141.html Interesting Article on the General Situation, including an analysis of the solutions: 9
http://harvardpolitics.com/world/the-ugly-solutions-to-peace-in-syria/ Resolutions: https://www.un.org/press/en/2012/sc10618.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2012/sc10718.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2013/sc11135.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2014/sc11292.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc13127.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2014/sc11473.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11810.doc.htm http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-documents/syria/ https://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc12171.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2012/sc10609.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/sc12637.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/sc12663.doc.htm https://www.un.org/press/en/2012/sc10609.doc.htm http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7b65bfcf9b-6d27-4e9c-8cd3- CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/Syria%20SRES%202043.pdf 10