BIOS 3010: Ecology Lecture 24: Abundance or catastrophe Lecture summary: Scientific method. Parsimony and hypotheses. Induction and deduction. Asymmetry between science and politics. Abundance-catastrophe debate. Lecture 24: Slide - 1 2. How do we do science: Pattern and process: Observable patterns. Processes that generate the patterns. Proximate and ultimate causes: Proximate - superficial causes of observable patterns. Ultimate - underlying causes: The processes that generate observable patterns. Lecture 24: Slide - 2 3. Parsimony and hypothesis generation: Parsimony means economy of explanation: Use Ockham s philosophical razor to shave away unecessarily complicated explanations! The simplest testable explanation for observations: Start with the simplest hypothesis as a null of no effect. If this can be rejected then test the next most simple hypothesis that invokes causality. Move through successive hypotheses up a hierarchy of complexity. Lecture 24: Slide - 3 1
4. Inducible and deducible causality: Induction: Invokes biased preference and subjectivity: Often implies political correctness at the expense of truth. Deduction: Invokes objectivity: The rational and logical process of hypothesis testing up a hierarchy of explanations characterized by decreasing parsimony and increasing complexity. Lecture 24: Slide - 4 5. Environmental issues: Usually invoke considerable subjectivity because of asymmetry: Asymmetry between scientific method and political will. Asymmetry exists because of poor scientific education among politicians: Environmental science is highly complex and hard to communicate. There are rarely simple solutions to environmental issues. Politicians have little incentive to understand environmental issues unless they have direct relevance. Lecture 24: Slide - 5 6. Environmental relevance: Direct: Pollution in your backyard is easy to see and establish responsibility. Impact of Rachel Carson and Silent Spring. Indirect: Pollution from unknown sources is hard to understand and assign responsibility. Role of the Environmental Protection Agency and implementation of legislation. Lecture 24: Slide - 6 2
7. Environmental controversy: These simple facts lead to environmental controversy such as the polarized abundance-catastrophe debate: Economist Julian Simon argued persuasively for resource abundance that drives economic growth and human success. Ideas reinforced by Danish statistician B. Lomborg in 2001. Ecologist Paul Ehrlich argues equally persuasively for impending catastrophe based on a Malthusian view of exponential human population growth outpacing the geometric increase in resources and technology. Lecture 24: Slide - 7 8. Ehrlich & Holdren (1974) Science 171:1212 Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology I = P x A x T Environmental impact is the product of population x consumption per person x the amount of resources needed or wastes created producing each unit of consumption. So population is the dominant factor in environmental damage. Lecture 24: Slide - 8 9. Julian Simon (1932-1998): This is my long-run forecast in brief: The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today s Western living standards. I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think and say that the conditions of life are getting worse. Julian Simon (1932-1998), Professor of Economics, University of Maryland (Regis 1997:198) - quote from the front of Lomborg (2001) Lecture 24: Slide - 9 3
Lomborg (2001) Fig. 20: Prevalence of infectious diseases in the US 1900-98. Lecture 24: Slide - 10 Lomborg (2001) Figs 23 and 24: Daily intake of calories per capita 1961-98 (left) and proportion of people starving 1970-2010 (right). Lecture 24: Slide - 11 Lomborg 2001 Figs 25 and 26: Wheat price index in England 1316-2000 (left) and World bank price index for foodstuffs (right). Lecture 24: Slide - 12 4
Abundance & catastrophe: Harrison & Pearce (2000) page 8: Resource abundance figure from Simon (1996) and collapse predicted by one of the models in Meadows et al. (1992). Lecture 24: Slide - 13 William of Ockham: Or William of Occam Born near Guildford in Surrey in 1285 Thought to have said: Non sunt multiplicanda entia praeter necessitatem Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. Used this principle so frequently and sharply that it became known as Ockham s razor Brilliant Franciscan monk who annoyed both Oxford University and the Pope (excommunicated as a heretic by Pope John XXII). Died of the plague in about 1349 in the service of Emperor Louis of Bavaria (1328-1349). Lecture 24: Slide - 14 References: Ehrlich, P.R., & A.H. Ehrlich. 1990. The population explosion. Simon & Schuster, New York. Harrison, P., & F. Pearce. 2000. AAAS atlas of population & environment. University of California Press, Berkeley. Lomborg, B. 2001. The skeptical environmentalist. Measuring the real state of the world. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows & J. Randers. 1992. Beyond the limits: confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future. Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River Junction, Vermont, 300 pages. Simon, J. 1996. The ultimate resource 2. Princeton University Press, New Jersey. Lecture 24: Slide - 15 5