COMCEC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Alper BAKDUR 7 th Meeting of COMCEC Financial Cooperation Working Group October 2 th, 216 Ankara, Turkey
OUTLINE Banking Capital Markets Characterization and Functioning of Financial Markets Islamic Finance 2
Banking Bankscope by Bureau van Dijk Commercial Banks Cooperative Banks Investment Banks Islamic Banks Real Estate & Mortgage Banks Savings Banks Total Afghanistan 9 9 Albania 12 2 1 15 Algeria 17 17 Azerbaijan 26 1 27 Bahrain 1 6 18 2 36 Bangladesh 4 1 8 49 Benin 5 1 6 Brunei Darussalam 1 1 2 Burkina Faso 6 6 Cameroon 9 9 Total 689 2 15 155 11 6 968 3
Banking Data coverage, checked by surveys to FCWG focal points, 5 responses Panel B. Aggregated total assets of the banking sector (millions USD) Bankscope Data Survey Response Coverage Ratio 213 214 215 213 214 215 213 214 215 Algeria 18.292 114.329 3.553 132.3 136.82 116.5 82 84 3 Egypt 195.141 231.732 22.924 242.75 275.68 321.535 8 84 69 Senegal 6.517 6.821 2.324 9.222 9.236 9.693 71 74 24 Sudan 5.878 5.435 5.299 12.339 13.457 17.859 48 4 3 Turkey 736.813 778.8 724.17 814.38 859.874 813.412 9 91 89 Other 3 items checked: Number of banks, Aggregated total loans, Aggregated total deposits and short term funding 4
TURKEY MALAYSIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SAUDI ARABIA INDONESIA ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF QATAR EGYPT KUWAIT NIGERIA MOROCCO PAKISTAN ALGERIA JORDAN BANGLADESH LEBANON BAHRAIN KAZAKHSTAN OMAN TUNISIA LIBYA IRAQ AZERBAIJAN MOZAMBIQUE ALBANIA COTE D'IVOIRE TURKMENISTAN SENEGAL UZBEKISTAN CAMEROON UGANDA SUDAN SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES GABON BURKINA FASO MALI AFGHANISTAN TOGO SURINAME BRUNEI DARUSSALAM BENIN NIGER YEMEN KYRGYZSTAN GUYANA MAURITANIA MALDIVES DJIBOUTI GUINEA TAJIKISTAN SIERRA LEONE CHAD GAMBIA Banking: Total Assets (mill. USD), 214 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 5. 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5. 5
BANGLADESH INDONESIA MALAYSIA IRAQ PAKISTAN NIGERIA KAZAKHSTAN TURKEY TUNISIA AZERBAIJAN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN UGANDA SAUDI ARABIA LEBANON UNITED ARAB EMIRATES EGYPT SENEGAL CAMEROON OMAN COTE D'IVOIRE MAURITANIA ALBANIA KYRGYZSTAN ALGERIA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC AFGHANISTAN MOROCCO MOZAMBIQUE BAHRAIN BURKINA FASO MALI SUDAN TOGO KUWAIT NIGER SIERRA LEONE JORDAN PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES GABON QATAR GUYANA LIBYA YEMEN DJIBOUTI SURINAME GAMBIA TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN BENIN TAJIKISTAN GUINEA MALDIVES Banking: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for Total Assets, 214 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 6
TUNISIA OMAN KAZAKHSTAN QATAR AZERBAIJAN INDONESIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN TURKEY MALAYSIA TOGO MOROCCO KYRGYZSTAN CAMEROON SENEGAL SAUDI ARABIA GABON TAJIKISTAN BANGLADESH BURKINA FASO UZBEKISTAN NIGER MOZAMBIQUE KUWAIT MAURITANIA COTE D'IVOIRE CHAD ALGERIA BAHRAIN SURINAME PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES UGANDA JORDAN NIGERIA MALI GUINEA GUYANA SUDAN TURKMENISTAN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM MALDIVES BENIN ALBANIA PAKISTAN EGYPT LEBANON IRAQ SIERRA LEONE SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC AFGHANISTAN GAMBIA DJIBOUTI LIBYA YEMEN Banking: Net Loans over Total Assets, 214 (%) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, Simple Weighted 7
SUDAN TURKMENISTAN MALAYSIA GAMBIA IRAQ MALDIVES UNITED ARAB EMIRATES KAZAKHSTAN GUYANA KYRGYZSTAN CHAD QATAR ALGERIA NIGERIA KUWAIT TAJIKISTAN UZBEKISTAN SAUDI ARABIA BURKINA FASO BENIN EGYPT GUINEA NIGER SIERRA LEONE MALI BRUNEI DARUSSALAM GABON AZERBAIJAN MAURITANIA CAMEROON INDONESIA SURINAME SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC JORDAN TURKEY DJIBOUTI COTE D'IVOIRE OMAN LEBANON PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES MOROCCO ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN PAKISTAN BANGLADESH UGANDA TUNISIA SENEGAL ALBANIA YEMEN AFGHANISTAN TOGO BAHRAIN MOZAMBIQUE LIBYA Banking: Return on Average Assets, 214 (%) 4, 3, 2, 1,, -1, -2, 8
ALGERIA TURKMENISTAN AFGHANISTAN INDONESIA IRAQ SAUDI ARABIA GABON TAJIKISTAN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF KYRGYZSTAN MALAYSIA BURKINA FASO QATAR COTE D'IVOIRE PALESTINIAN TOGO OMAN NIGER TURKEY LIBYA GAMBIA NIGERIA MOZAMBIQUE UZBEKISTAN BAHRAIN KUWAIT GUINEA MOROCCO MALI UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CAMEROON JORDAN LEBANON UGANDA EGYPT TUNISIA GUYANA BANGLADESH SENEGAL KAZAKHSTAN PAKISTAN ALBANIA YEMEN AZERBAIJAN BENIN SIERRA LEONE DJIBOUTI MALDIVES SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC Banking: Impaired Loans over Gross Loans, 214 (%) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, Simple Weighted 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, 9
Banking: Looking Forward Top 5 countries in terms of total assets of their banking systems cover about 6 per cent of all assets in OIC member countries. (Top 1 cover 8 per cent) This indicates different needs or policy agenda of top 1 and the rest of the OIC member countries. Bank concentration, profitability and impaired loans indicators indicate a COMCEC policy agenda of risk management and regulation in banking system. 1
Capital Markets Source:OIC Member States Stock Exchanges Forum Integrated Statistics Report 214, 25 exchanges from 21 countries Country Stock Exchange Acronym United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange ADX Jordan Amman Stock Exchange ASE Bahrain Bahrain Stock Exchange BHB Turkey Borsa İstanbul BIST Malaysia Bursa Malaysia Berhad BM (*) Mozambique Bolsa de Valores de Moçambique BVM Tunisia Bourse des Valeurs Mobilières de Tunis BVMT Bangladesh Chittagong Stock Exchange CSE(B) Morocco Casablanca Stock Exchange CSE(M) United Arab Emirates Dubai Financial Market DFM Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Limited DSE Egypt The Egyptian Exchange EGX Indonesia Indonesia Stock Exchange IDX Iran Iran Fara Bourse Company IFB Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Stock Exchange KASE Pakistan Karachi Stock Exchange Limited KSEL Pakistan Lahore Stock Exchange LSE Maldives Maldives Stock Exchange Pvt Ltd MSE Nigeria Nigerian Stock Exchange NSE Oman Muscat Securities Market MSM Palestine Palestine Securities Exchange PEX Qatar Qatar Stock Exchange QSE Algeria Société de Gestion de la Bourse des Valeurs Mobilières Spa SGBV Saudi Arabia Saudi Stock Exchange Tadawul Iran Tehran Stock Exchange TSE (*) Unofficial acronym representing Bursa Malaysia 11
Algeria Bahrain Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia Iran Jordan Kazakhstan Malaysia Maldives Morocco Mozambique Nigeria Oman Pakistan Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia Turkey United Arab ADX ASE BHB BIST BM BVM BVMT CSE(B) CSE(M) DFM DSE EGX IDX IFB KASE KSEL LSE MSE MSM NSE PEX QSE SGBV Tadawul TSE ADX ASE BHB BIST BM BVM BVMT CSE(B) CSE(M) DFM DSE EGX IDX IFB KASE KSEL LSE MSE MSM NSE PEX QSE SGBV Tadawul TSE Capital Markets 1. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 65 236 47 227 Listed Companies 214 95 4 77 243 75 58 274 247 56 62 77 557 431 117 197 48 6 43 4 169 315 6 5 4 3 2 1 Market Cap. 214 billions USD 54 483 422 22 185 114 26 22,5 9,3 33 53 88 117 34 7 74 7 24 25,4 38 62 3,2,2 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Market Cap over GDP 214 (%) <.1 65 39 24 48 34 71 12 154 15 49 3 11 46 58 25 88 65 2 27 5 Top 3: 53 per cent Top 1: 85 per cent 12
Capital Markets: Looking Forward Not all OIC member countries have organized stock exchanges. Top 1 exchanges comprise of 85 per cent of all market capitalization in OIC member countries. Cooperation in specific capital market topics may draw limited attention among OIC member countries. Topics on developing capital markets may interest more OIC member countries. 13
Characterization and Functioning of Financial Systems World Bank, Global Financial Development Database Cihak, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., & Levine, R. (212). Benchmarking financial systems around the world. Four broad characteristics 1. Financial Access: the degree to which individuals can and do use financial institutions and markets 2. Financial Depth: the size of financial institutions and markets 3. Financial Efficiency: the efficiency of financial institutions and markets in providing financial services 4. Financial Stability: the stability of financial institutions and markets 14
Characterization and Functioning of Financial Systems Categorization of OIC Member States 214 OIC-Low income group 1,45 USD or less Categories Countries Number of Countries Afghanistan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Comoros, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Gambia The, Togo, Uganda 15 OIC-Lower middle income group 1,46 USD to 4,125 USD Bangladesh, Cameroon, Cote d'ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Arab Rep., Guyana, Indonesia, Kyrgyz Republic, Mauritania, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palestine, Senegal, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Yemen 19 OIC-Upper middle income 4,126 USD to 12,735 USD Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Suriname, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan 16 OIC-High income group 12,736 USD or more Source: World Bank Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates 7 15
Financial Access 12 1 8 6 4 2 Bank Accounts per 1, Adults 211 212 213 214 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Bank Branches per 1, Adults 8 6 4 2 Account at a formal financial institution (% age 15+) 211 214 Saved any money in the past year (% age 15+) 6 5 4 3 2 1 16
Financial Depth Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) Stock market total value traded to GDP (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 25 2 15 1 5 211 212 213 214 214 Stock market capitalization to GDP (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 214 17
Financial Efficiency Bank Lending-Deposit Spread (%) Bank Return on Asset (ROA) (%, after tax) 12 1 8 6 4 2 211 212 213 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, 211 212 213 214 214 Bank Return on Equity (ROE) (%, after tax) 25 2 15 1 5 211 212 213 214 18
Financial Stability Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (%) Bank Capital to Total Assets (%) 25 2 15 1 5 211 212 213 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 211 212 213 214 214 Bank nonperforming loans to gross loans (%) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 211 212 213 214 19
Islamic Finance Islamic Banking Share in Total Banking Assets (%- 1H215) Iran Sudan 1 1 Brunei Saudi Arabia 49 49 Kuwait 38,9 Yemen 33 Qatar 26,1 Malaysia 23 Bangladesh UAE 19,4 18,4 Djibouti 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Source: IFSB, Islamic Financial Stability Report 216 2
Islamic Finance Shares of Global Islamic Banking Assets as of 1H215 4 37,3 35 3 25 2 19 15 1 5 9,3 8,1 5,9 5,1 2,9 1,7 1,6 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,6,4,3 3,1 Source: IFSB, Islamic Financial Stability Report 216 21
Islamic Finance Islamic Finance Country Index Rankings, top 2 Countries Countries IFCI Rank 216 IFCI Rank 215 IFCI Rank 211 Malaysia 1 2 2 Iran 2 1 1 Saudi Arabia 3 3 3 United Arab Emirates 4 4 7 Kuwait 5 5 5 Indonesia 6 7 4 Qatar 7 8 13 Bahrain 8 6 8 Pakistan 9 1 6 Bangladesh 1 11 9 Sudan 11 9 1 Egypt 12 13 12 Turkey 13 12 14 Jordan 14 15 19 United Kingdom 15 14 15 Oman 16 19 -- Brunei Darussalam 17 17 19 United States of America 18 16 14 Sri Lanka 19 18 22 Lebanon 2 21 18 Source: Global Islamic Finance Report 216. Edbiz Consulting, May 216 22
Thank You 7 th Meeting of COMCEC Financial Cooperation Working Group October 2 th, 216 Ankara, Turkey