FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 29, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Toss up in Wisconsin Senate race Raleigh, N.C. Presumed Wisconsin Democratic Senate nominee, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, has made up ground against her potential opponents since PPP last polled the race last October. She is now pretty much running even with Republican frontrunner. Baldwin has improved three points against Thompson, from trailing 44-46 in the previous poll to leading 46- now; five points against former Rep., from a 44-43 lead to 47-41; and four points versus State House Speaker, from a 44-40 lead to a 47-39 one. The two parties are polarized in all three match-ups, but Baldwin trumps by taking six- to 18-point leads with the huge 36% plurality who say they are independents. This is a reversal from the previous poll, when the three Republicans led by one to 13 points with unaffiliated voters. Thompson still has by far the highest name identification. Only 16% have no opinion of their former governor, and those who do break down roughly evenly 41% favorably and 42% unfavorably, almost unchanged from October (42-42). Baldwin is the next best known, and has slightly upped her image from 28-30 to 31-31, putting her on par personally with Thompson, though 38% are not yet sure how they feel about her. By a 47-37 margin, the state s Republican faithful would still prefer someone more than Thompson as their standard-bearer, but his name recognition at this point dictates that he still leads a three-way match-up 39-22-22 over Fitzgerald and Neumann, and tops them each head-to-head by nine or ten points. The Wisconsin Senate race looks like a toss up, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. Democrats are united behind Tammy Baldwin and Republicans are united behind, making this one of those contests that really will be determined by independents. PPP surveyed 900 Wisconsin voters, as well as an oversample of 556 usual Republican primary voters, from February 23 rd to 26 th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/- 3.3%, and +/-4.2% for the primary sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
Wisconsin Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin?...31%...31%...38% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...19%...38%...42% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...23%...34%...43% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...41%...42%...16% If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Jeff Fitzgerald, who would you vote for? Tammy Baldwin...47%...39% Undecided...14% If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican, who would you vote for? Tammy Baldwin...47%...41% Undecided...12% Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican, who would you vote for? Tammy Baldwin...46%...% Undecided... 9% Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008? John McCain...40% Q9 Barack Obama...52% Someone else/don't remember... 8% Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? Very liberal...10% Somewhat liberal...19% Moderate...31% Somewhat...25% Very...15% Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...54% Man...46% Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat...33% Republican...31% Independent/Other...36% Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. White...90% Other...10% Survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Q13 If you are 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to, press 2. If, press 3. If you are older, press 4. 29...10% 30 to...28%...42%...20% Q14 Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union? Yes...29% No...71% Survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
2008 Vote 2008 Vote John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember Baldwin 31% 4% 54% 20% 31% 56% 11% 33% 38% 40% 36% 47% Fitzgerald 19% 39% 5% 12% 38% 14% 57% 38% 42% 46% 38% 50% Neumann 2008 Vote John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember 23% 44% 8% 14% 34% 17% 48% 34% 43% 39% 44% 52% Thompson 2008 Vote John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember 41% % 22% 43% 42% 18% 64% 30% 16% 17% 14% 27% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
2008 Vote 2008 Vote John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember Baldwin/Fitzgerald Baldw in/neum ann Tammy Baldwin 47% 8% 80% 34% Tammy Baldwin 47% 8% 80% 36% 39% 77% 8% 41% 41% 80% 11% 40% Undecide d 14% 15% 11% 25% Undecide d 12% 12% 9% 24% Baldwin/Thompson Tammy Baldwin Undecide d 2008 Vote John McCain Barack Someone else/don't Obam a remember 46% 5% 80% 32% % 84% 14% 50% 9% 11% 6% 18% Baldwin liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 31% % 57% 36% 7% 4% 31% 10% 8% 18% 49% 67% 38% 25% 35% % 43% 29% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Fitzgerald liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 19% 6% 3% 8% 37% 43% 38% 64% 56% 50% 17% 10% 42% 30% 41% 42% 47% 47% Neum ann liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 23% 8% 4% 11% 38% 57% 34% 66% 46% 40% 19% 12% 43% 25% 50% 49% 43% 31% Thompson liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 41% 13% 20% 35% 59% 69% 42% 78% 66% % 23% 19% 16% 9% 14% 21% 18% 12% liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Baldw in/fitzgerald Tammy Baldwin 47% 80% 89% 60% 14% 5% 39% 11% 3% 22% 70% 84% Undecide d 14% 9% 8% 19% 16% 11% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Baldw in/neum ann liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Tammy Baldwin 47% 85% 88% 59% 14% 5% 41% 12% 3% 25% 75% 82% Undecide d 12% 3% 8% 16% 11% 13% Baldwin/Thompson liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Tammy Baldwin 46% 80% 86% 58% 14% 5% % 15% 8% 31% 76% 90% Undecide d 9% 5% 7% 12% 10% 5% Baldwin Wom an Man 31% 30% 32% 31% 26% 36% 38% 44% 32% Fitzgerald Wom an Man 19% 16% 23% 38% 36% 41% 42% 48% 36% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Wom an Man Wom an Man Ne umann Thompson 23% 21% 25% 41% 39% 44% 34% 33% 36% 42% 42% 44% 43% 46% 39% 16% 20% 12% Baldw in/fitzgerald Tammy Baldwin Unde cided Wom an Man 47% 49% 46% 39% 34% 43% 14% 17% 11% Wom an Man Baldw in/neumann Tammy Baldwin 47% 49% 46% 41% 38% % Unde cided 12% 13% 10% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Party Baldwin/Thompson Tammy Baldwin Wom an Man 46% 48% 44% % 42% 48% Baldwin Democrat Republican Independent/Other 31% 54% 3% 34% 31% 10% 57% 27% 38% 36% 39% 39% Unde cided 9% 10% 8% Fitzgerald Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other 19% 5% 41% 14% 38% 59% 10% 44% 42% 36% 49% 42% Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other Neumann 23% 8% 44% 19% 34% 50% 14% 38% 43% 42% 43% 43% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Thompson Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other 41% 17% 66% 41% 42% 69% 15% 42% 16% 13% 19% 17% Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other Baldwin/Fitzgerald Tammy Baldwin 47% 86% 4% 49% 39% 6% 82% 31% Undecided 14% 8% 14% 19% Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other Baldwin/Neumann Tammy Baldwin 47% 88% 4% 48% 41% 6% 84% 36% Undecided 12% 6% 13% 16% Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other Baldwin/Thompson Tammy Baldwin 46% 87% 2% 47% % 9% 88% 41% Undecided 9% 4% 9% 13% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Race Race White Other White Other Baldwin 31% 31% 34% 31% 31% 31% 38% 39% 36% Fitzgerald 19% 20% 15% 38% 37% % 42% 43% 39% Ne umann Race White Other 23% 24% 18% 34% 33% 43% 43% 43% 39% Thompson Race White Other 41% 42% 37% 42% 43% 41% 16% 16% 23% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Race Race White Other White Other Baldw in/fitzgerald Baldw in/neumann Tammy Baldwin 47% 46% 54% Tammy Baldwin 47% 47% 54% 39% 40% 31% 41% 42% 32% Unde cided 14% 14% 15% Unde cided 12% 11% 14% Baldwin/Thompson Tammy Baldwin Unde cided Race White Other 46% % 54% % 46% 34% 9% 8% 12% Baldwin 29 30 to 31% 27% 29% 34% 30% 31% 20% 26% 33% 39% 38% 53% 46% 33% 31% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
29 30 to 29 30 to Fitzgerald Ne umann 19% 10% 16% 20% 28% 23% 10% 18% 27% 28% 38% 40% 40% 39% 32% 34% 40% 30% 38% 31% 42% 50% 44% 41% 39% 43% 50% 52% 35% 41% Thompson 29 30 to 41% 33% 43% 42% 40% 42% 27% 39% 48% 44% 16% 40% 18% 10% 16% Baldw in/fitzgerald Tammy Baldwin 29 30 to 47% 50% 49% 49% 42% 39% 30% 36% 40% % Undecide d 14% 20% 16% 12% 14% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
29 30 to 29 30 to Baldw in/neumann Baldwin/Thompson Tammy Baldwin 47% 53% 47% 49% 42% Tammy Baldwin 46% 50% 46% 48% 42% 41% 33% 39% 41% 47% % 37% 44% % 51% Undecide d 12% 13% 14% 10% 11% Undecide d 9% 13% 11% 7% 8% Baldwin Union Member? Yes 31% 38% 28% 31% 18% 36% 38% 44% 36% No Fitzgerald Union Member? Yes 19% 9% 24% 38% 53% 32% No 42% 38% 44% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Union Member? Union Member? Yes No Yes No Neumann Thompson 23% 13% 27% 41% 31% % 34% 39% 32% 42% 51% 39% 43% 48% 40% 16% 18% 16% Baldw in/fitzgerald Tammy Baldwin Unde cided Union Member? Yes 47% 64% 40% 39% 23% % 14% 13% 15% No Baldwin/Neumann Tammy Baldwin Union Member? Yes 47% 63% 41% 41% 24% 48% No Unde cided 12% 14% 11% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Union Member? Baldwin/Thompson Tammy Baldwin Unde cided Yes No 46% 64% 39% % 29% 52% 9% 6% 10% survey of 900 Wisconsin voters
Wisconsin Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...42%...12%...46% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...47%...14%...39% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of?...66%...17%...17% If the Republican candidates for Senate were,, and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?...22%...22%...39%...17% If the Republican candidates for Senate were just and, who would you vote for?...32%...42%...26% If the Republican candidates for Senate were just and, who would you vote for?...37%...46%...17% Q7 Q8 Q9 If the Republican candidates for Senate were just and, who would you vote for?...36%...46%...18% Generally speaking, would you prefer that the Republican Senate nominee next year was or someone more?...37% Someone more...47%...17% Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party? Yes...26% No...54%...19% Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not? Are an Evangelical...49% Are not...51% Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? Very liberal... 2% Somewhat liberal... 2% Moderate...17% Somewhat...43% Very...36% Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...51% Man...49% Survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Q13 If you are years old, press 1. If, press 2. If you are older, press3....32%...39%...29% Survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Tea Party ID Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure Yes No Not sure Fitzgerald Ne umann 42% 55% 38% 34% 47% 57% 41% 49% 12% 14% 15% 4% 14% 15% 17% 5% 46% 32% 47% 62% 39% 29% 42% 47% Thompson Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure 66% 67% 67% 62% 17% 22% 15% 16% 17% 11% 18% 21% 2012 GOP Sen Prim ary Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure 22% 33% 21% 9% 22% 32% 18% 22% 39% 28% 43% 42% 17% 8% 18% 27% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Tea Party ID Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure Yes No Not sure Fitzgerald/Neumann 32% 44% 30% 21% 42% 43% 42% 38% 26% 12% 28% 41% Fitzgerald/Thompson 37% 54% 31% 30% 46% 37% 51% 44% 17% 9% 18% 26% Neumann/Thompson Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure 36% 48% 31% 36% 46% 41% 52% 36% 18% 11% 18% 28% Thompson or Someone More Conservative? Someone more Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure 37% 22% 46% 30% 47% 69% 35% 51% 17% 9% 20% 19% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Evangelical? Evangelical? Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not Fitzgerald Ne umann 42% 36% 47% 47% 51% 43% 12% 12% 13% 14% 10% 18% 46% 52% 41% 39% 39% 40% Thompson Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 66% 69% 63% 17% 15% 20% 17% 17% 17% 2012 GOP Sen Prim ary Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 22% 17% 27% 22% 27% 18% 39% 39% 38% 17% 17% 17% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Evangelical? Evangelical? Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not Bas e Are an Evangelical Are not Fitzgerald/Neumann 32% 26% 38% 42% 48% 36% 26% 27% 26% Fitzgerald/Thompson 37% 32% 41% 46% 49% 43% 17% 18% 16% Neumann/Thompson Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 36% 38% 35% 46% 46% 46% 18% 16% 19% Thompson or Someone More Conservative? Someone more Bas e Evangelical? Are an Evangelical Are not 37% 37% 36% 47% 48% % 17% 15% 19% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Fitzgerald liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 42% 27% 37% 30% 41% 49% 12% 27% 6% 15% 14% 9% 46% % 57% 56% 46% 42% Neum ann liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 47% 27% 29% 26% % 60% 14% 39% - 21% 17% 8% 39% 33% 71% 53% 39% 32% Thompson liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 66% 51% 57% 57% 63% 75% 17% 30% 18% 18% 19% 15% 17% 19% 25% 25% 18% 11% 2012 GOP Sen Primary liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 22% 30% 14% 18% 20% 26% 22% 7% 23% 15% 22% 28% 39% 33% 12% 53% 41% 31% 17% 30% 51% 15% 17% 15% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Fitzgerald/Neumann liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 32% 37% 8% 28% 31% 35% 42% 26% 24% 40% 44% 42% 26% 37% 68% 32% 25% 22% Fitzgerald/Thompson liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 37% 37% 31% 27% 34% % 46% 24% 47% 54% 48% 42% 17% 39% 23% 19% 18% 13% Som ew hat Very liberal liberal Moderate Neumann/Thompson 36% 24% 43% 25% 33% % 46% 37% 35% 58% 47% 40% 18% 39% 23% 16% 20% 15% Thompson or Someone More Conservative? Someone more liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 37% 56% 35% 55% 39% 25% 47% 17% 20% 19% 42% 68% 17% 27% % 26% 19% 7% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Wom an Man Wom an Man Fitzgerald Ne umann 42% 35% 49% 47% 41% 52% 12% 10% 14% 14% 11% 17% 46% 55% 37% 39% 47% 31% Thompson Wom an Man 66% 61% 71% 17% 16% 18% 17% 23% 10% 2012 GOP Sen Prim ary Wom an Man 22% 21% 22% 22% 18% 27% 39% 35% 42% 17% 25% 8% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Wom an Man Wom an Man Fitzgerald/Neumann 32% 27% 37% 42% 37% 46% 26% 35% 17% Fitzgerald/Thompson 37% 33% 40% 46% 41% 51% 17% 25% 9% Wom an Man Neumann/Thompson 36% 31% 42% 46% 43% 49% 18% 26% 9% Thompson or Someone More Conservative? Someone more Wom an Man 37% 34% 39% 47% 42% 51% 17% 24% 9% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Fitzgerald Ne umann 42% 37% 46% 41% 47% 40% 53% 47% 12% 14% 9% 14% 14% 14% 12% 16% 46% 48% % % 39% 46% 35% 37% Thompson 66% 66% 66% 66% 17% 12% 20% 19% 17% 22% 14% 15% 2012 GOP Sen Prim ary 22% 25% 24% 16% 22% 18% 22% 28% 39% 33% 39% 44% 17% 24% 14% 13% survey of 556 Republican primary voters
Fitzgerald/Neumann 32% 34% 31% 30% 42% 32% % 48% 26% 34% 23% 22% Fitzgerald/Thompson 37% 37% 39% 34% 46% 38% 46% 55% 17% 24% 15% 12% Neumann/Thompson 36% 34% 37% 38% 46% 40% 47% 52% 18% 26% 17% 10% Thompson or Someone More Conservative? Someone more 37% 30% 38% 42% 47% % 49% % 17% 25% 13% 13% survey of 556 Republican primary voters