How They Believe II an in-depth look at muslim thoughts & beliefs in five arab countries
Zogby Research Services, LLC Dr. James Zogby Elizabeth Zogby Sarah Hope Zogby 2017
Executive Summary During the past two years, we at Zogby Research Services (ZRS) have been engaged in an exhaustive examination of the attitudes of Arab Muslims toward their religion. We have looked at how they understand their faith, how they practice it, and how they see its role in relation to the state and society. In this report, we will draw on the findings of two major studies: How They Believe (HTB, 2016) in which we surveyed 21,473 Muslim citizens in 10 Arab countries; and Attitudes Toward Groups That Politicize Religion (ATGPR, 2017) in which we surveyed 13,469 Muslim citizens in nine Arab countries. The overall data we accumulated in these studies is rich in detail, providing deep insights into our respondents beliefs and practices. It is our hope that these studies can help us better understand the varieties of beliefs and political attitudes of Muslims, as well as offer a roadmap that will provide religious and political leaders an understanding of issues that need to be addressed. * * * For this summary report we have focused on a two key issues: how respondents define being religious, and the differences in the political outlook of those who self-describe as very religious and their compatriots who see themselves as moderately religious or less. We have presented some of the findings for five of the countries: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. We have chosen them because of their unique characteristics, historical development, and different ways each has approached the issues under examination. In the first place, it is clear from the findings that not all Muslims are the same. That there are differences in how Muslims in each of the countries covered in these studies understand their faith and how they see its role in their lives and in their societies should not be surprising. Nor THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES THAT WE FIND ARE NOT DEMOGRAPHIC, BUT RATHER ATTITUDINAL BETWEEN FORMALISTS AND ADAPTERS. is it surprising that there are differences from country to country. What is worth noting is the absence of any significant demographic differences (young vs. old, men vs. women, educated vs. less educated, or upper income vs. middle or lower income) in either religiosity or political attitudes of the respondents. The major differences that we do find are not demographic, but 1
rather attitudinal mainly between those who self-describe as very religious or those who self-describe as moderately religious or less. We call the first group and the second group. As we will spell out below, the differences between the two groups are profound. * * * The are more formalistic and observant of rituals. They pray more often, go to their mosques more frequently, spend more time listening to religious programming, and, in some countries, report consulting fatwas more frequently. They are also less tolerant of other faiths and sects and have a negative view of modernity. It is also noteworthy that largely believe that their own countries are moving in the wrong direction. They believe that religious groups should become more political and seek to govern. And when religious groups do govern, see these groups as having been effective in making their countries stronger and protecting the rights of all citizens despite evidence to the contrary in places like Egypt and Palestine. As an extension of this, are significantly more inclined to support movements that politicize religion, see a strong role for the state in religious affairs, and believe in strict enforcement of a strict definition of Sharia. They also believe in the importance of establishing the Caliphate. Finally, it is with some concern that we note that in most countries covered in these surveys are more inclined than their compatriots to see extremist groups like Daesh or al Qaeda to be mostly right, correct, or rightly guided. * * * The second group we have identified in our studies, the, are less formalistic or rigid in their approach to their faith. They pray and go to their local mosque as often as they can and do not report listening frequently to religious programs or consulting fatwas. They are far more tolerant of other faiths and sects and have a positive view of modernity. strongly support the view that their own countries are moving in the right direction. Rather than rigid ritual observance, they tend to support the notion that religion should lead one to live a better, more moral life. They believe in the civil nation-state and maintain that religious groups should focus on promoting spirituality. They largely share the view that when religious groups have governed, they have made their countries weaker and ineffective 2
in protecting the rights of all citizens. Logically then, are far less supportive of movements that politicize religion, and do not support a strong role for the state in religious affairs. They also believe that the state should act either in the spirit of Sharia or as a civil institution. Finally, are largely inclined to see extremist groups like Daesh or al Qaeda either as not Muslims or as a misguided perversion of Islam. * * * For this report we present the findings in five Arab countries: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. It is noteworthy that the sizes of the two groups the and the vary from country to country. are one-half of Saudis, twofifths of Tunisians, and only about one-quarter of Egyptians, Moroccans, and Emiratis. On the other hand, are about three-quarters of Emiratis, Moroccans, and Egyptians, three-fifths of Tunisians, and one-half of Saudis. Which of the following statements comes closest to describing the role religion plays in your life? I am a very religious person. My faith directs my daily life. I am a moderately religious person. I try to balance the requirements of my faith with the pressures and requirements of my daily life. Religion plays a very small role in most of my daily activities. 26 51 24 41 29 40 40 49 33 60 34 9 27 26 11 In the narrative analysis below, we present results from the two studies in two sections: I. How respondents define being religious ; II. How they view the relationship between religion and the state, and the role of movements that politicize religion. 3
I. How respondents define being religious From May 5 to June 17, 2016, Zogby Research Services surveyed more than 21,000 Muslim citizens in 10 Arab countries in an effort to understand their attitudes toward religion and their personal religious behavior. Diving deeply into the data from five countries in this survey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt, is instructive in that we can learn what respondents mean they say they are very religious. That is, what specific behaviors and beliefs about religion co-occur in respondents who self-describe as very religious versus what behavior and beliefs about religion co-occur among respondents who self-describe as moderately religious or who say religion plays a very small role in my daily life. This review of the data leads us to better understand the two groups of interest for this report: and. Which of the following best describes your religious practice? I pray 5 times each day, and go to my mosque as often as I can. 54 16 54 18 71 5 85 22 36 12 I pray 5 times a day, praying at home or work. 41 27 41 51 10 26 15 25 45 23 I pray at home or work, when I can. 5 43 5 21 20 44 1 18 18 47 Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding. I don t pray that often. 0 14 0 9 <1 26 0 35 1 19 We reviewed the responses to a question about religious practice, comparing the data for (who self-describe as very religious ) and (who self-describe as moderately religious or who say religion plays only a small role in their daily lives ). What we find is that prayer behavior, how often and where people pray, tends to track self-reported levels of religiosity. For example, when asked about their religious practice, majorities of in each of the five countries say they pray five times each day and go to their mosque as often as they can, including as many as 85% of these respondents in Tunisia and 71% in Morocco. These rates are three to twelve times higher than the rates of who say the same; just 5% of 4
in Morocco, and between 12-22% of these respondents in the other four countries pray five times a day and go the mosque as often as possible. On the other hand, pluralities of in the UAE (43%), Morocco (44%), and Egypt (47%) say they pray at home or work when they can. And significant percentages of in Tunisia (35%), Morocco (26%), Egypt (19%), and the UAE (14%) say they don t pray that often. Just as we find this concrete example of adherence to religious behavioral norms, we also find beliefs about religion and its role mirror these behavioral patterns. Which of the following best describes your point of view? For me, religion is the source of my personal spiritual strength. For me, religion is the source of morality, teaching me right from wrong. Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding. 75 45 81 61 47 31 49 32 53 25 25 55 19 39 53 69 51 68 47 75 In all five countries, are more likely than to view religion as the source of my personal spiritual strength. More than three-quarters of in the UAE (75%) and Saudi Arabia (81%) and a majority of in Egypt (53%) hold this view, which is 20-30 points higher than the percentage of in these countries who agree ( in the UAE: 45%, KSA: 61%, Egypt: 25%). Alternatively, are more likely than to view religion as the source of morality, teaching THE FORMALISTS ARE MORE FORMALISTIC IN THEIR APPROACH TO RELIGION AND ARE MORE OBSERVANT OF RITUALS. me right from wrong. More than two-thirds of in Morocco (69%), Tunisia (68%), and Egypt (75%), and a majority of in the UAE (55%) hold this view, between 16 and 30 points higher than the percentage of who agree ( in Morocco: 53%, Tunisia: 51%, Egypt: 47%, the UAE: 25%). 5
Which statement best reflects your point of view? To be religious, it is important to be observant and to adhere to all religious rituals. To be religious, it is most important to live a moral life and be good to others. 53 26 92 67 83 25 93 47 58 30 47 74 8 33 17 75 7 53 42 70 The differences are even starker with respect to a very straightforward question about what it means to be religious. More than eight in 10 in Tunisia (93%), Saudi Arabia (92%), and Morocco (83%), and majorities of in Egypt (58%) and the UAE (53%) say that to be religious, it is important to be observant and to adhere to all religious rituals. These responses are twice as likely among ADAPTERS ARE LESS FORMALISTIC OR RIGID IN THEIR APPROACH TO THEIR FAITH. than among in Tunisia, Egypt, and the UAE, and three times higher among Moroccan than. On the other hand, more than seven in 10 in Morocco (75%), the UAE (74%), and Egypt (70%) as well as a majority of in Tunisia (53%) say that to be religious, it is most important to live a moral life and be good to others. This view is held by a scant 8% of in Saudi Arabia and 7% of in Tunisia. Thus, we find that those who self-identify as very religious tend to pray more frequently and more often in the mosque, to hold the view that religion is the source of personal spiritual strength, and that being religious requires observance and adherence to religious rituals; hence, we call this group of respondents. And those who self-identify as either moderately religious or who say religion plays only a small role in their daily lives tend to pray less frequently and to pray wherever they are when they do, to hold the view that religion is a source of morality, and that being religious requires living a moral life and being good to others; hence, we call these respondents. 6
II. How respondents view the relationship between religion and the state, and the role of movements that politicize religion. Between March 19 and April 6, 2017, Zogby Research Services surveyed 13,469 in nine Arab countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine) to explore their attitudes toward political Islam. Specifically, the survey asked respondents about their attitudes toward other sects and faiths, the caliphate, religious groups that politicize religion, Sharia law, extremist groups, and gateway groups. Again, diving deeply into this data in five countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt), using the lens of and, we find a clear pattern of attitudes about issues related to the intersection of Islam and governance. Generally speaking, would you say that things in your country are heading in the right direction or are they moving in the wrong direction? Right direction 26 74 33 70 5 74 7 60 1 25 Wrong direction 71 10 65 18 87 17 82 28 98 67 Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding and because responses of not sure are not included. In general, tend to think that their countries are heading in the wrong direction, while tend to think that they are heading in the right direction. Strong majorities of in all five of the countries reviewed here say their countries are heading in the wrong direction, including almost all in THE FORMALISTS LARGELY BELIEVE THAT THEIR OWN COUNTRIES ARE MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. Egypt (98%) as well as 87% in Morocco, 82% in Tunisia, 71% in the UAE, and 65% in Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, at least seven in 10 in the UAE (74%), Morocco (74%), and Saudi Arabia (70%) as well as 60% of in Tunisia say their countries are heading the right direction. 7
ADAPTERS STRONGLY SUPPORT THE VIEW THAT THEIR COUNTRIES ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. The dissatisfaction among Egyptians at the time of the survey with respect to the direction of their country is clear. In addition to the 98% of who say Egypt is heading in the wrong direction, 67% of agree with this negative view. Do you believe that a caliphate or a Muslim state unifying all Muslims into one single state would be a positive development? Positive 57 30 87 34 98 21 93 45 98 31 Negative 34 55 13 56 0 67 4 47 2 62 Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding and because responses of not sure are not included. are far more likely than to believe that a caliphate, or a Muslim state unifying all Muslims into a single state, would be a positive development. There is near unanimity among in Egypt (98%) and Morocco (98%) that a caliphate would be positive, and very strong positives among in Tunisia (93%) and Saudi Arabia (87%). A majority of in the UAE (57%) say that a caliphate would be a positive development, though the numbers indicate significantly less enthusiasm than the other countries in this report. Majorities of in Morocco (67%), Egypt (62%), Saudi Arabia (56%), and the UAE (55%) say a caliphate would be a negative development. Should religious movements focus on providing spiritual guidance or should they seek to become political and govern? Provide spiritual guidance 44 85 33 79 25 85 35 81 23 78 Become political and govern 55 13 65 19 73 12 64 18 76 18 Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding and because responses of not sure are not included. 8
tend to want religious movements to focus on providing spiritual guidance, while tend to think that these movements should seek to become political and govern. Majorities of in all five countries, including about three-quarters of such respondents in Egypt (76%) THE FORMALISTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INCLINED TO SUPPORT MOVEMENTS THAT POLITICIZE RELIGION. and Morocco (73%), as well as 65% of in Saudi Arabia, 64% in Tunisia, and 55% in the UAE, think religious movements should become political and govern. Holding the alternative view,that religious movements should focus on spiritual guidance, are at least three-quarters of in all five countries (UAE: 85%, Morocco: 85%, Tunisia: 81%, Saudi Arabia: 79%, Egypt: 78%). When religious movements do govern, have they made their countries stronger or weaker? Stronger 64 16 79 23 100 17 94 34 75 15 Weaker 35 77 18 69 0 73 6 62 25 81 Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding and because responses of not sure are not included. When asked about the impact of governing religious movements on the countries where they have been in power, tend to say religious movements make countries stronger, while tend to say they make countries weaker. ADAPTERS ARE FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF MOVEMENTS THAT POLITICIZE RELIGION. Majorities of in all five countries, including all in Morocco (100%), 94% in Tunisia, 79% in Saudi Arabia, 75% in Egypt, and 64% in the UAE, say governing religious movements make countries stronger. On the other hand, majorities of, including 81% in Egypt, 77% in the UAE, 73% in Morocco, 69% in Saudi Arabia, and 62% in Tunisia, say such movements make countries weaker when they govern. 9
When religious movements do govern, have they improved the quality of life in their country and protected the rights of all, including minorities? Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding. They made life better. 62 15 80 24 100 31 88 33 88 23 They have not made life better. 38 85 20 76 0 69 12 67 12 77 When asked if governing religious movements improve the quality of life and protect the rights of all including minorities, the responses closely track responses to the previous question. say such movements make life better in the countries where they govern, while disagree. There is unanimity among in Morocco that governing religious movements improve the quality of life and protect the rights of all; at least eight in 10 in Tunisia (88%), Egypt (88%), and Saudi Arabia (80%) agree, as do 62% of in the UAE. On the other hand, more than two-thirds of in all five countries say such movements do not make life better (UAE: 85%, Egypt: 77%, Saudi Arabia: 76%, Morocco: 69%, Tunisia: 67%). Which of the following statements best describes how the state should apply Shariah provisions in Muslim-majority societies? The state should... apply Shariah in all matters related to behavior and custom. 56 34 76 38 91 27 84 42 69 27 govern only according to the spirit of Shariah. 27 28 15 30 8 17 11 27 23 28 govern as a civil institution without Shariah and should defer to religious authorities in matters of faith. Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding. 17 39 8 32 2 56 5 31 7 45 In general, are more likely to want the state to apply Shariah more broadly, while are more likely to say that the state should govern either only according to 10
the spirit of Shariah or as a civil institution without Shariah and should defer to religious authorities in matters of faith. Majorities of in all five countries think that the state should apply Shariah in all matters related to behavior and custom, including 91% of in Morocco, 84% in Tunisia, 76% in Saudi Arabia, 69% in Egypt, and 56% in the UAE. At least six in 10 in four countries (and 58% in Tunisia) think the state should govern only according to the spirit of Shariah or as a civil institution. A majority of Moroccan (56%) as well as pluralities of in Egypt (45%) and the UAE (39%) hold the most liberal viewpoint: that the state should govern without Shariah and leave matters of faith to religious authorities. Which of the following best describes your views on groups like the Islamic State, al Qaeda, Ansar Bayt al-maqdis, and other similar groups? I don t consider them to be Muslims. 49 58 22 31 24 38 15 21 36 40 They are a misguided perversion of the teachings of Islam. They are mostly wrong, but I sometimes agree with issues they raise. They are mostly right, but I disagree with the things they have done. 25 21 29 36 33 48 25 38 33 39 9 17 22 26 2 14 15 25 11 16 8 4 14 6 25 <1 30 13 16 5 They are correct and follow a rightly-guided path. 9 <1 13 1 16 0 14 3 5 <1 Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding. While majorities of respondents overall in these five countries agree that with respect to groups like Islamic State, al Qaeda, and Ansar Bayt al-maqdis they either do not consider them Muslims or regard them as a misguided perversion of the teachings of Islam, there are some troubling findings when we look more deeply at the data. In all five countries, the percentages of who say these groups are mostly right or correct and follow a rightly-guided path are significantly higher than the often negligible percentages of who agree (e.g., in the UAE, : 17% vs. : 4%). In addition, the numbers of who hold these views (i.e., that groups like al Qaeda and Islamic State are mostly right or correct) in Egypt (20%), Saudi Arabia (27%), Morocco (41%), and Tunisia (44%) are worrisome. 11
To what extent do you agree with the following statement? Groups espousing a politicized version of Islam should be seen as potential gateways to extremism. Agree 17 69 13 65 1 54 5 55 1 54 Disagree 83 31 87 35 99 46 95 45 99 46 Agree is an aggregation of responses of strongly agree and somewhat agree. Disagree is an aggregation of responses of somewhat disagree and strongly disagree. Finally, when respondents were asked if they think that groups espousing a politicized version of Islam should be seen as potential gateways to extremism, we find majorities of agreeing that these groups are gateways to extremism and very strong majorities of (in some cases, near unanimity) disagreeing with this assertion. The strongest agreement that groups that politicize religion lead to extremism is among in the UAE (69%) and Saudi Arabia (65%). On the other hand, 99% of in Morocco and Egypt and 95% of such respondents in Tunisia say these groups are not gateways to extremism, as do 87% of in Saudi Arabia and 83% in the UAE. 12
Methodology The approach used for conducting the poll involved face-to-face, personal interviews. Urban as well as rural centres were covered in each country to cover a widespread geography. The sample obtained was nationally representative and comprised adult Muslim males and female citizens, who were 15+ years of age. In the GCC countries (Saudi Arabia and the UAE), where door to door sampling is not possible, a referral sampling approach was used. However, adequate measures were taken to ensure that the sample was not skewed and was broadly representative. Since random, door to door sampling is possible in the remaining countries, a multi-stage sampling methodology was employed for selection of respondents in each country. 2016 Demographics Sunni 89 86 99 98 98 Shia 11 14 1 2 2 Male 50 55 49 49 51 Female 50 45 51 51 49 Under 30 45 41 35 30 38 30+ 55 59 65 70 62 Live in the city 87 83 58 66 46 Live outside the city 13 17 42 34 54 2017 Demographics Sunni 89 85 99 99 98 Shia 10 15 1 1 2 Male 51 51 48 49 50 Female 49 49 52 51 50 Under 30 57 48 35 30 43 30+ 43 52 65 70 57 Live in the city 87 84 64 69 50 Live outside the city 13 16 36 31 50 Country Sample size Survey dates Margin of error Cities/regions Country Sample size Survey dates Margin of error Cities/regions UAE 1,624 5/5/16-6/11/16 ±2.5 Abu Dhabi-Al Ain, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah UAE 1,049 3/19-3/31/17 ±3.0 Abu Dhabi-Al Ain, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah KSA 3,047 Morocco 3,054 5/5/16-6/11/16 5/5/16-6/11/16 ±1.8 ±1.8 Riyadh, Buraidah, Diriya, Abha, Abu Arish, Medina, Khabrah, Shammasyah, Jeddah, Taif, Makkah, Shoa aybah, Dammam, Al Khobar, Dhahran, Tabuk, Hail, Jubail, Hufuf Casablanca, Marrakech, Agadir, Fes, Meknes, Rabat, Kenitra, Tanger, Oujda, Beni Mallal, El Jadida, Khenifra, El Hajeb, Tan Tan, Tiznit, Jerada KSA 2,050 Morocco 1,582 3/19-4/2/17 3/19-4/3/17 ±2.2 ±2.5 Riyadh, Buraydah, Dirap, Dereya, Nazeem, Ammaryah, Onayzah, Khabrah, Shammasyah, Jeddah, Taif, Makkah, Shoa aybah, Dammam, Al Khobar, Dhahran, Jubail and Hufuf Casablanca, Marrakech, Agadir, Fes, Meknes, Rabat, Kenitra, Tanger, Oujda, Beni Mellal, El Jadida, Khenifra, Tiznit Tunisia 2,069 Egypt 4,050 5/6/16-6/8/16 5/5/16-6/17/16 ±2.2 ±1.6 Tunis, Bizerte, Ariane, Le Kram, Raoued, Megrine, Sousse, Sfax, Kairouan, Gaafsa, Tataouine, Tozeur, Kebili Cairo, Giza, Shoubra Al Khima, Alexandria, Port Said, Suez, Mansoura, Tanta, Zagazig, Damanhour, Bani Suwayf, Asyut, Menia, Fayoum, Suhag, Aswan, Luxor, Shaarm Al Shaikh, Arish Tunisia 1,547 Egypt 2,045 3/19-4/2/17 3/19-4/2/17 ±2.5 ±2.2 Tunis, Bizerte, Ariane, Carthage, Sidi Thabet, Megrine, Sousse, Sfax, Kairouan, Gaafsa, Hergla, Belkhir (urban and rural areas) Cairo, Giza, Shoubra Al Khima, Alexandria, Mansura (urban and rural), Menia (urban and rural), Asyut (urban and rural),tanta (urban and rural) 13
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