THE CHANGING RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE: THE RISE OF THE UNAFFILIATED Daniel Cox @dcoxprri
RISE OF THE UNAFFILIATED Trends The Current Landscape 2
Religious AffiliaBon in the US, 1974-2050 Protestant Unaffiliated Linear (Protestant) Linear (Unaffiliated) Catholic Non-Christian Religion Linear (Catholic) Linear (Non-Christian Religion) 100 80 60 63 49 26 22 20 7 0 4 4 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 2023 2030 2037 2044 2051 Source: General Social Survey, 1974-2012; PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2013 and 2014. 3
Growth of the Religiously Unaffiliated, 1991-2014 All Americans Young Adults (18-29) 34 30 20 22 10 8 6 0 Sources: General Social Survey,1991-2012; PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 4
Religious AffiliaBon by Age 100 80 60 20 0 11 16 24 34 3 4 5 5 6 7 10 9 5 5 18 9 9 16 6 8 11 20 16 8 12 27 10 22 16 10 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Don't know/refused Other religion Unaffiliated Other World Religions Jewish Other ethnic Christian Hispanic Catholic Hispanic Protestant Black Protestant Mormon White Catholic White mainline Protestant White evangelical Protestant Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 5
Generational Divides: White Evangelical Protestants vs. Unaffiliated Percent who identify as White Evangelical Prot. vs. Unaffiliated by Age (Moving Averages) 35 35 White evangelical Protestant Unaffiliated 30 27 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 11 Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 6
POLITICAL PROFILE Poli9cal Party and Vote Abor9on and Same- sex Marriage Role of Religion in Public Life 7
Party Identification and Ideological Identification Party Identification Among Unaffiliated and All Americans Republican Independent Democrat Other/ Don't know Unaffiliated 11 50 32 7 All Americans 22 31 7 0 20 60 80 100 Ideological Affiliation Conservative Moderate Liberal Other/ Don't know Unaffiliated 22 29 42 7 All Americans 37 28 28 6 0 20 60 80 100 Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 8
The Religion Vote, 2004-2012 Percent who voted for Democratic presidential candidate 100 90 80 70 60 50 30 20 10 0 21 26 20 White evangelical Protestant 47 43 44 44 44 White Catholic White mainline Protestant 2004 2008 2012 75 75 72 65 67 Hispanic Catholic 78 74 70 69 86 94 95 Unaffiliated Jewish Black Protestant Note: All Protestant categories include individuals who identify as Protestant or other Christian Sources: National Exit Polls, 2004-2012 9
Support for Legalized Abortion and Same-sex Marriage Percent who Agree That... Unaffiliated All Americans Abortion should be legal in all/most cases 55 75 Favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally 54 77 0 10 20 30 50 60 70 80 90 Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 10
Attitudes about the Role of Religion in Society Percent who AGREE that... Unaffiliated All Americans Religion causes more problems than it solves. 32 71 It is important for children to be brought up in a religion so they can learn good values 23 67 It is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values. 13 48 0 10 20 30 50 60 70 80 Source: PRRI, American Values Survey, October 2013. 11
THE THREE TRIBES OF THE UNAFFILIATED Atheist/Agnos9c Secular UnaMached Believers 12
The Three Tribes of the Unaffiliated 24 24 Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believer 52 Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 13
Unaffiliated Sub-Groups by Gender Men Women All Unaffiliated 55 45 Atheist/ Agnostic 63 37 Secular 55 45 Unattached Believer 47 53 0 20 60 80 100 Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas 2014. 14
Unaffiliated Sub-Groups by Race/Ethnicity 100 80 60 20 4 4 4 6 4 4 6 2 12 9 13 13 3 9 7 17 69 78 69 60 Don't know/ Refused Other/Mixed Race API Hispanic Black White 0 All Unaffiliated Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believer Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 15
Unaffiliated Sub-Groups by Educational Attainment 100 80 60 11 18 31 15 24 11 18 30 7 12 30 Don't know 35 Post-graduate College graduate Some college 20 26 41 51 High school or less 0 All Unaffiliated Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believer Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 16
Political Orientation 100 80 60 20 Self-identified Political Ideology 7 7 10 15 22 22 29 24 29 30 32 57 42 29 Other/ Don't know Conservative Moderate Liberal 0 All Unaffiliated Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believer Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 17
Support for Legalized Abortion and Same-sex Marriage Percent who Agree That... All Unaffiliated Atheist/ Agnostic Secular Unattached Believer 75 Abortion should be legal in all/most cases 60 75 87 Favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally 58 77 79 90 0 20 60 80 100 Source: PRRI, American Values Atlas, 2014. 18
The Impact of NegaBve Church Teachings about LGBT People on Millennial DisaffiliaBon Thinking about the reasons you are no longer affiliated with your childhood religion, how much a factor was negative religious teachings about or treatment of gay and lesbian people? 4 14 Very important 44 17 Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 21 Don't know/refused (VOL.) Source: PRRI, LGBT Issues & Trends, February 2014. 19
THE CHANGING RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE: THE RISE OF THE UNAFFILIATED Daniel Cox @dcoxprri