BACKGROUNDER No. 3142 The Threat of Islamist Terrorism i Europe ad How the U.S. Should Respod Robi Simcox Abstract As recet evets i Nice ad Asbach demostrate, Europe faces a ogoig threat from Islamist terrorism. The Uited States also remais a key target for ISIS, al-qaeda, ad their supporters. The U.S. ad Europe have a shared eemy ad must assist each other i the defese of liberal ad democratic values. For its part, the U.S. must take the fight to ISIS ad al-qaeda i the Middle East ad Africa ad be willig to kill or capture its eemies. The U.S. must also take a multifaceted approach to tryig to halt the flow of foreig fighters. I Europe, several coutries blighted by terrorism ot oly have devoted scat resources to tacklig this problem, but also have take a isufficietly robust lie o terrorist activity. The U.S. should ecourage its Europea allies to reverse this tred. It ca also assist Europeas i breakig dow itelligece firewalls that exist withi idividual atios while tryig to improve pre-existig itelligece-sharig arragemets. Europe faces a persistet threat from Islamist terrorism. 1 It is oe that has icreased with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq ad al-sham (ISIS), the al-qaeda offshoot that ow cotrols sigificat parts of Iraq ad Syria. The director of Europol recetly described the curret situatio as the highest terrorist threat we have faced for over 10 years. 2 These security cocers are beig exacerbated by uprecedeted levels of migratio ito Europe from impoverished ad/or war-tor areas of the Middle East, Africa, ad the Balkas, with ISIS kow to have targeted such routes for ifiltratio. ISIS displayed its ability to strike at the heart of Europe durig attacks i Paris i November 2015 ad Brussels i Jauary 2016, while those traied by al-qaeda carried out the Jauary 2015 raid This paper, i its etirety, ca be foud at http://report.heritage.org/bg3142 The Heritage Foudatio 214 Massachusetts Aveue, NE Washigto, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 heritage.org Nothig writte here is to be costrued as ecessarily reflectig the views of The Heritage Foudatio or as a attempt to aid or hider the passage of ay bill before Cogress. Key Poits The likelihood of a terrorist attack has icreased i both Europe ad the Uited States. ISIS, al-qaeda, ad their affiliates must be militarily defeated abroad to help ease the threat at home. The threat to Europe is multifaceted: Attacks could be plaed by al-qaeda or ISIS, by cells or radicalized loers they have ispired, or by returees traied by terrorist groups abroad. Europeas are also vulerable to beig targeted i al-qaeda operatios across the Middle East ad Africa. The U.S. must step up its war agaist ISIS, al-qaeda, ad their affiliates by reviewig the curret strategy for breakig the Islamic State s territorial cotrol ad tryig to plug its flow of foreig fighters. The U.S. should ecourage Europea coutries to take a more robust approach to couterterrorism, break dow iteral itelligece firewalls withi idividual atios, ad attempt to improve pre-existig itelligece-sharig arragemets.
o the Charlie Hebdo offices (also i Paris). The potecy of these groups is ehaced by their ogoig ability to ispire small cells of radicalized supporters livig i the West to carry out attacks o their behalf. The vast majority of plots i the West emaate from such supporters, who have claimed affiliatio with a terrorist group without ever havig traveled to popular safe haves such as Iraq, Pakista, Somalia, Syria, or Yeme. It appears as though Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, the terrorist who killed 84 people with a 19-to truck i Nice recetly, was oe such idividual. The U.S. should assist Europe by steppig up military activities agaist al-qaeda, ISIS, ad their affiliates. There is much it ca do to ease the foreig terrorist fighter threat while also remidig the cotiet of its ow military resposibilities. I additio, the U.S. should assist Europeas i breakig dow itelligece firewalls that exist withi idividual atios, makig better use of pre-existig itelligece-sharig arragemets ad adoptig a tougher approach to law ad order. ISIS: The Cotext The Islamic State of Iraq, the precursor of ISIS ad a al-qaeda offshoot, was perceived by some Wester policymakers as havig bee strategically defeated followig the U.S. surge of 2006 2007 i Iraq, but the terrorist group had beefited from America s effectively havig withdraw both politically ad militarily from Iraq i the 2010 2011 period. It was also boosted by the chaos i Syria, where the Arab Sprig protests were met with bloody persecutio from Bashar al-assad. I both Iraq ad Syria, the Islamic State of Iraq ow had sigificat space from which to operate. I April 2013, Islamic State of Iraq emir Abu Bakr al-baghdadi declared that the al-nusra Frot (ANF), the al-qaeda affiliate operatig i Syria, was essetially a frot for his group. He aouced the creatio of a ew orgaizatio: the Islamic State of Iraq ad al-sham (ISIS). This led to iteral squabblig, with both al-qaeda leaders Ayma al-zawahiri ad ANF emir Abu Mohammed al-joulai attemptig to brig al-baghdadi to heel. Usuccessful i doig so, ISIS was expelled from the al-qaeda etwork i February 2014. Udeterred, i Jue 2014, ISIS cut a swathe throughout parts of orther ad wester Iraq, gaiig sigificat amouts of territory to complemet the territory that it already cotrolled i Syria. ISIS leaders i the same moth declared the retur of the caliphate, with its capital i the orther Syria city of Raqqa. Thousads of Europeas aswered al-baghdadi s call to leave their homes at times, takig etire families with them ad goig to live i the ewly declared Islamic state. With ISIS gatherig i stregth, takig more territory ad committig geocide agaist miority groups, the Uited States iterveed. Sice August 2014, the U.S. ad its coalitio parters (icludig Europeas) have carried out airstrikes agaist ISIS targets, stallig their advace but looseig the group s grip o its territory oly very slowly. ISIS iitially respoded with a series of videos aimed at Wester audieces that featured British terrorist Mohammed Emwazi beheadig multiple America ad British citizes i the Syria desert. Yet the threat to life was destied to spread beyod the Middle East, ad ISIS icreasigly displayed a capacity to strike at targets based well beyod its caliphate. ISIS ad Europe Europe s secularism ad democratic values of equality ad liberty represet a direct challege to the ISIS ideology. Therefore, the ISIS strategy focuses o carryig out attacks to preset Muslims livig i the West with a clear (yet false) choice: apostasy or allegiace to their caliphate. 3 I order to preset this choice, ISIS has take a multi-proged approach to strikig Europe. Cetrally Cotrolled Attacks. Carryig out attacks i Europe has bee a ISIS goal for over two 1. Islamism is defied as a belief that God rather tha ma should make law ad that Islam is ot oly a religio, but also a all-ecompassig sociopolitical system. 2. Mark Stoe, Terror Threat to Europe Highest for 10 Years, Sky News, March 9, 2016, http://ews.sky.com/story/1656134/terror-threat-to-europe-highest-for-10-years (accessed April 21, 2016). 3. Frederick W. Kaga, Kimberly Kaga, Jeifer Caffarella, Harlee Gambhir, ad Katherie Zimmerma, Al Qaeda ad ISIS: Existetial Threats to the U.S. ad Europe, U.S. Grad Strategy: Destroyig ISIS ad Al Qaeda, Report Oe, Istitute for the Study of War, Jauary 2016, p. 24, http://www.uderstadigwar.org/sites/default/files/planex%20report%201%20--%20finalfinalfinal.pdf (accessed July 15, 2016). 2
years. 4 A key figure i these plas has bee Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a Belgia citize of Morocca origi who first traveled to Syria at the begiig of 2013. He was tasked by Abu Mohammed al-adai, ISIS spokesma ad the head of ISIS s exteral operatios wig, with plaig terrorist operatios i Europe ad was quickly coected to a series of plots i Belgium ad Frace. May 2014: Brussels, Belgium. Mehdi Nemmouche, a Frech citize of Algeria origi, shot ad killed four civilias at the Jewish Museum i Brussels. Nemmouche, a ISIS-aliged terrorist who had fought i Syria, is thought to have spoke to Abaaoud over the phoe i Jauary 2014. Jauary 2015: Verviers, Belgium. By Jauary 2015, Abaaoud had retured to Europe from Syria ad was i cotact with three other recetly retured ISIS terrorists based i Verviers, Belgium. Accordig to a Belgia federal prosecutor, the Verviers cell was plottig immiet terrorist attacks o a grad scale, which were thwarted by Belgia authorities i Jauary 2015 whe they stormed a buildig occupied by the cell, killig two ad arrestig oe. Explosives, AK-47s, walkie-talkies ad police uiforms were discovered i the buildig. April 2015: Paris, Frace. Algeria-bor Sid Ahmed Ghlam plaed what Frech authorities described as a immiet attack o churchgoers ad is suspected of havig murdered a gym istructor whose body was discovered o April 19, 2015. Before he could carry out his plot, Ghlam accidetally shot himself i the leg ad had to call a ambulace. Frech authorities coected ot oly Abaaoud to the plot, but also aother ISIS operative, Fabie Clai, a Frech citize based i Syria. It is thought that Ghlam ad Clai were i cotact ad that Ghlam had met multiple associates of Clai s i Turkey before the plaed attack. August 2015: Paris, Frace. Four moths later, i August 2015, Ayoub el-khazzai, a Morocca, attempted to gu dow passegers i a trai travellig betwee Amsterdam ad Paris. Passegers, icludig two members of the U.S. Army, restraied him. El-Khazzai is believed to have bee set o this missio by Abaaoud. I the same moth, Frech authorities arrested a Frech citize, Reda Hame, o his way back from traiig i Syria. Abaaoud had dispatched Hame back to Europe with istructios to acquire a gu, kill civilias, ad the hold hostages util he was martyred. November 2015: Paris, Frace. O November 13, 2015, oe of ISIS s gradest Europea plas succeeded. A shockig total of 130 people were killed i Paris after a series of shootigs ad suicide bombigs carried out by ISIS operatives i four cafes, a football stadium, ad a music veue. The primarily Frech cell that coducted the attacks cotaied returees from the Syria Iraqi coflict, ad Abaaoud was suspected of beig o the scee durig the attacks o the cafes i Paris. I the aftermath of the Paris atrocities, Abaaoud was killed i a Frech police raid i St. Deis, a Paris suburb. The suspected overall commader of the cell, a Algeria called Mohammed Belkaid, was the killed i a police raid i Brussels o March 15. Belkaid had already begu to plot a set of follow-up attacks i Brussels, with two teams carryig out gu ad bomb attacks. Salah Abdeslam, a member of the Paris cell who ditched his suicide vest ad retured to Brussels o the ight of the attack, was arrested days later. March 2016: Brussels, Belgium. The ISIS threat to Europe exteded beyod these idividuals. O March 22, other members of the etwork Ibrahim al Bakraoui, Najim Laachraoui, ad Mohamed Abrii travelled to Brussels Airport armed with Kalashikov rifles ad several bombs. They fired ito the crowd at the check-i area ad the detoated ail bombs that they had placed o their luggage trolleys. Just over a hour later, Khalid al-bakraoui committed a suicide bombig i a Brussels metro statio usig the same type of bomb. The attacks killed 32. 4. Ibrahim Boudia, a Frech citize, fought with ISIS i Syria i late 2013 ad was the dispatched back to Frace i Jauary 2014 to carry out a attack i Europe. Boudia had acquired explosives i preparatio for a attack before his February 2014 arrest. 3
The Paris ad Brussels attacks were precisely what itelligece officials hoped was a thig of the past: A large cell was able to acquire gus, ammuitio, ad triacetoe triperoxide (TATP), the explosive used i the suicide vests, all without detectio. Difficulty i pullig off a attack o this scale i recet years had meat that aspirig terrorists had emphasized the use of gus ad kives i simpler, cruder attacks. A plot such as the May 2013 deadly stabbig of a British soldier by violet Islamists i Lodo was regarded as the template for the future: a very small team carryig out a crude attack usig a weapo that was legal to possess ad easy to acquire. The recet ISIS attacks i Europe have show that this is ot ecessarily the case. Crowdsourcig. Former New York Police Departmet Director of Itelligece Aalysis Mitch Silber has described aother ISIS tactical approach: crowdsourced jihad. 5 This ivolves takig work traditioally performed by employees (aka cardcarryig members of ISIS) ad issuig a ope call for idividuals outside the orgaizatio to carry it out. This approach was ecapsulated i a audio recordig released i September 2014 ad featurig Abu Mohammed al-adai, who implored supporters to lauch a series of operatios, regardless of their sophisticatio: If you ca kill a disbelievig America or Europea especially the spiteful ad filthy Frech or a Australia, or a Caadia, or ay other disbeliever from the disbelievers wagig war the rely upo Allah, ad kill him i ay maer or way however it may be. Do ot ask for ayoe s advice ad do ot seek ayoe s verdict. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a kife, or ru him over with your car, or throw him dow from a high place, or choke him, or poiso him. 6 The message from al-baghdadi was clear: Supporters of ISIS should do whatever they could with whatever came to had. There are umerous examples of ISIS-ispired but ot ISIS-cotrolled terrorism i the West. There were 32 ISIS plots i the West from the declaratio of the caliphate i Jue 2014 through August 2015. 7 America, Caada, ad Australia were targeted o multiple occasios, ad 13 plots targeted seve separate Europea coutries. These icluded the attacks by Omar Abdel Hamid el-hussei, the Morocca guma who targeted a free speech evet ad a syagogue i Copehage, Demark, i February 2015, killig two, ad Amedy Coulibaly, the Frech guma who killed five people over a two-day period i Paris Jauary 7 ad 8 ad pledged loyalty to Abu Bakr al-baghdadi i a video that was uploaded to the Iteret ad dissemiated o Twitter after his death. Al-Qaeda ad Europe Like ISIS, al-qaeda wats to create a caliphate that serves as a base from which to expad ad attack the West. The groups differ maily over tactics. ISIS focuses o carryig out attacks immediately; al-qaeda is playig a loger game. Abu Mohamed al-joulai, the head of Syria s al-qaeda affiliated al-nusra Frot, has spoke of how [t]he istructios that we have are ot to use al-sham as a base to lauch attacks o the west or Europe. This is ot due to a ideological distaste for doig so, but rather so as ot to muddy the curret war i Syria. 8 Thus, despite al-qaeda s ot carryig out attacks with the frequecy of ISIS, this does ot mea that the threat has disappeared. Ope Source Jihad. Uder sigificat pressure from U.S.-led couterterrorism operatios agaist its seior leadership, al-qaeda has modified its approach to targetig Europe. Complex operatios such as 9/11 have become less feasible, ad oe brach of al-qaeda has istead attempted to ispire supporters livig i the West to act idepedetly. 5. Mitch Silber, Crowdsourced Jihad: The New Tred i Homegrow Terror, The Cipher Brief, July 8, 2015, https://webcache.googleusercotet.com/search?q=cache:qhcfrhl5tqj:https://thecipherbrief.com/article/crowdsourced-jihad-ewtred-homegrow-terror+&cd=1&hl=e&ct=clk&gl=us (accessed April 21, 2016). 6. Hele Davidso, Isis Istructs Followers to Kill Australias ad Other Disbelievers, The Guardia, September 23, 2014, http://www.theguardia.com/world/2014/sep/23/islamic-state-followers-urged-to-lauch-attacks-agaist-australias (accessed April 21, 2016). 7. Robi Simcox, We Will Coquer Your Rome : A Study of Islamic State Terror Plots i the West, The Hery Jackso Society, September 2015, p. 3, http://heryjacksosociety.org/wp-cotet/uploads/2015/09/isis-brochure-web.pdf (accessed July 15, 2016). 8. Agece Frace-Presse, Syria Not a Lauchig Pad for Attacks o West Says al-nusra Chief i TV Iterview, May 27, 2015, https://www.yahoo.com/ews/chief-al-qaedas-syria-affiliate-pledges-o-attacks-221912033.html?ref=gs (accessed April 21, 2016). 4
Islamist Targetig of Europea Jews the targetig of Jews is a feature of Islamist attacks i Europe. For example, i Jauary 2016, a IsIs-ispired 15-year-old stabbed a Jewish teacher with a machete. three IsIs supporters stabbed a Jewish teacher i the same city as part of a attack i November 2015. the Batacla, the Parisia music veue targeted by IsIs i November 2015, was historically Jewish-owed (beig sold oly shortly before the actual attack). Amedy Coulibaly; Omar Abdel Hamid el-hussei (both i 2015); ad Mehdi Nemmouche (2014) all specifically targeted Jews. this is ot merely a cosequece of the rise of IsIs; it also represets buildig o a broader Islamist tred. I 2012, Mohammed Merah specifically targeted Jews i a set of shootigs i the south of Frace, as did a husbad ad wife covicted i the u.k. for their pla to attack Jews i the orth of Eglad. Followig the 2011 death of Fazul Mohammed, Osama bi Lade s trusted adviser i east Africa, documets were discovered i his possessio relatig to attacks o Jewish areas of Lodo amog other targets. I the summer of 2010, al-qaeda i the Arabia Peisula (AQAP) published its first editio of Ispire, a Eglish-laguage magazie. The braichild of two America al-qaeda members based i Yeme, Awar al-awlaki ad Samir Kha, Ispire champioed the otio of Ope-Source Jihad, providig [a] resource maual [that] icludes bomb makig techiques, security measures, guerrilla tactics, weapos traiig ad all other jihad related activities. [T]he ope source jihad is America s worst ightmare. It allows Muslims to trai at home istead of riskig a dagerous travel abroad. 9 A recet Istitute for the Study of War paper characterized Ispire as revolutioary for the Salafi-jihadi commuity i that it was the first to combie the religious justificatios for jihad i colloquial Eglish with how-to mauals. 10 Copies of Ispire frequetly tur up i terrorism ivestigatios i the West. Particularly popular is the article o how to Make a Bomb i the Kitche of Your Mom, which gives istructios o buildig a bomb usig easy-to-acquire igrediets ad material. 11 This was thought to be of use to Tamerla ad Dzokhar Tsaraev i makig the bombs they used i the Bosto maratho bombig of April 2013, which killed three ad ijured 264. Traiig ad Fiacig. Prior to 2015, al-qaeda s last major successful operatio i Europe was the suicide bombigs o the Lodo trasport etwork o July 7, 2005. Yet the raid o the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazie proved that terrorists were still those operatig i Europe who had bee traied by the group ad were determied to carry out attacks o its behalf. Charlie Hebdo was selected for targetig by al-qaeda s cetral leadership after the magazie published a picture of the Islamic prophet Mohammed. Cherif ad Said Kouachi, two Frech terrorists traied by AQAP i Yeme i 2011, carried out the raid. Seior AQAP figure Nasser bi ali al-asi claimed credit for the attack o the group s behalf, with the group deferrig to the Kouachis whe it came to tactics ad timig of the operatio. Attacks Abroad ad Kidap for Rasom. Al- Qaeda poses a sigificat regioal threat, ad Europeas based i al-qaeda s favored areas of operatio have bee murdered by the group i the followig terrorist attacks: The Jauary 2013 I Ameas gas complex assault, carried out by a factio of Al-Qaeda i the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM); The September 2013 Westgate Mall attack i Nairobi, Keya, carried out by al-qaeda s Somali affiliate, al-shabaab; The November 2015 AQIM attack o the Radisso Blu hotel i Bamako, Mali; ad 9. Ope Source Jihad, Ispire, Issue 1 (Summer 2010), p. 32, https://azeli.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/aqap-ispire-magazie-volume-1-ucorrupted.pdf (accessed July 15, 2016). Emphasis i origial. 10. Kaga et al., Al Qaeda ad ISIS, p. 24. 11. The AQ Chef, Make a Bomb i the Kitche of Your Mom, Ispire, Issue 1 (Summer 2010), pp. 33 40. 5
ISIS Recruitmet of Crimials Betwee February ad December 2004, Abu Bakr al-baghdadi s detetio at Camp Bucca i Iraq helped to give him the coectios that would evetually lead to the creatio of IsIs. I Europe, too, IsIs s raks have bee swelled by their ability to draw i idividuals previously coected with crimes, which rage i seriousess from petty to violet. For example: Bertrad Nzohaboayo, shot ad killed at a police statio i Frace i Jauary 2015 after carryig out a kife attack that ijured three, had a history of petty crime. Amedy Coulibaly, who carried out a series of attacks i Paris i Jauary 2015, had bee covicted of assault ad served time i jail for armed robbery. He had bee ivolved i shopliftig, drug dealig, the sale of stole goods, ad armed robbery. Omar Abdel Hamid el-hussai, who killed two people i separate attacks i Copehage i February 2015, was ivolved i street gags ad had bee set to jail for stabbig a passeger o a trai. He had bee arrested for other violet crimes. Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a key IsIs operative who helped pla the November 2015 attacks i Paris, had spet time i three separate jails, havig bee covicted of assault ad attemptig to break ito a garage ad havig bee arrested for stealig. salah Abdeslam, a fellow member of the cell, had bee arrested with Abaaoud durig the garage break i ad also spet time i jail. tarek Belgacem, who carried out a attack agaist Frech police with a meat cleaver i Jauary 2016, had a crimial past related to drug offeses. Khalid el-bakraoui, part of the cell that committed suicide attacks i Brussels i March 2016, had carried out multiple bak robberies ad carjackigs. His brother Ibrahim, also part of the Brussels cell, likewise was ivolved i a bak robbery, shootig a police officer with a Kalashikov i the process. Both me were jailed but released early. Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, the terrorist who killed 84 people by ruig them over with a truck i Nice i July 2016, was kow to local law eforcemet for past offeses that ivolved assault, domestic violece, ad robbery. this tred is ot cofied solely to Europe. More tha oe i five IsIs plotters i the broader West who either carried out attacks or were plaig to do so had past crimial records or were kow to law eforcemet. the most commo feloies related to drugs, violet crime, or robbery. 1 1. Robi Simcox, We Will Coquer Your Rome : A Study of Islamic State Terror Plots i the West, The Hery Jackso Society, September 2015, p. 3, http://heryjacksosociety.org/wp-cotet/uploads/2015/09/isis-brochure-web.pdf (accessed July 15, 2016). The Jauary 2016 AQIM assault o the Spledid Hotel i Ouagadougou, Burkia Faso. Al-Qaeda also has regularly kidapped Europeas i order to extract rasoms from their govermets. The U.S. ad the Uited Kigdom have bee highly critical of this, believig that these paymets ot oly sustai al-qaeda operatioally, but also icetivize further kidappigs. 12 Isufficiecy of Europe s Approach to Couterterrorism Followig the Paris attacks, Foreig Fighter Surge Teams comprised of represetatives from the FBI, the Departmet of Homelad Security, ad the Departmet of State were deployed to a umber of Europea atios to provide couterterrorism assistace o border issues ad itelligece sharig. This assistace has icluded Belgium ad Greece but will also 12. A British tourist kidapped i Mali was murdered by AQIM i May 2009 whe the U.K. govermet refused to meet the kidapper s demads. 6
iclude Frace ad Germay. This was a welcome developmet, as the approach of idividual Europea coutries to Islamist terrorism is failig i several key areas. The followig shortcomigs i Belgium, for example, were exposed by the latest ISIS attack. Domestic Itelligece Sharig. After terrorist attacks i Europe both those that are thwarted ad those that are ot there are cosistet calls from leaders ad officials of the Europea Uio (EU) for much greater itelligece sharig through a ew Europea body desiged specifically for this purpose. Belgia Prime Miister Charles Michel has eve called for the creatio of a Europea CIA. 13 Yet the very ature of itelligece gatherig meas that coutries will be reluctat to give away their secrets ad how they acquired them to other coutries, eve allies. As Sir Joh Sawers, the head of Britai's MI6, has stated, the service who first obtais the itelligece has the right to cotrol how it is used, who else it ca be shared with, ad what actio ca be take o it. It s rule umber oe of itelligece sharig. 14 There are soud reasos for this: If disclosures are made too readily, sources ca easily be compromised ad agets idetified, killed, or tortured. There also are very differet privacy ad surveillace expectatios withi Europe. The Edward Sowde disclosures were treated somewhat apathetically i the U.K., for example, compared to how they were treated i Germay. This is partially due to historical experiece. I Britai, the cocept of spyig cojures up images of James Bod ad Bletchley Park; i Berli, it evokes recet memories of the Stasi. There is, however, a much more immediate problem tha a lack of cotiet-wide itelligece sharig: Europea coutries domestic police, military, ad itelligece agecies do ot share iformatio. As U.K. Foreig Secretary Philip Hammod recetly commeted: [M]ost of our parters i Europe have a iteral ad a exteral agecy ad the two do t always work closely together. Usually for historical reasos they have regarded themselves as totally differet. [T]hey just do t have the operatioal itegratio. [T]here are differet legal structures, differet powers eve turf wars. 15 This is partially due to size ad structure: Frace has 33 separate itelligece-collectio agecies, for example, 16 ad there are six separate police forces i Brussels aloe. 17 Whe it comes to itelligece sharig, multiple attempts have bee made to help govermets coordiate efforts to track foreig terrorists across iteratioal borders. Iterpol s Foreig Terrorist Fighter (FTF) program was formed i September 2014 for precisely this purpose. The Focal Poit Travelers (FPT) agreemet, lauched by Europol i February 2015, had a similar aim: focusig o collaboratio betwee law eforcemet agecies i the U.S. ad the EU. However, a similar issue has blighted both programs. The FPT iitiative also suffers from a lack of buy-i from parter atios ad a icomplete database of ames (approximately oly 2,000). 18 More tha 50 coutries have cotributed to the FTF database, but oly aroud 5,000 ames are o this database. 19 This is approximately oe-fifth of the total of foreig terrorists thought to have travelled to Syria ad Iraq. 13. Robi Simcox, Europe, Stop Tryig to Make Itelligece Sharig Happe, Foreig Policy, April 14, 2016, http://foreigpolicy.com/2016/04/14/europe-stop-tryig-to-mak-brussels-paris-bombigs/ (accessed April 21, 2016). 14. Sir Joh Sawers, Sir Joh Sawers s Speech Full Text, The Guardia, October 28, 2010, http://www.theguardia.com/uk/2010/oct/28/sir-joh-sawers-speech-full-text (accessed April 21, 2016). 15. Sam Joes, UK Hits at Europea Ati-terror Red Tape ad Turf Wars, The Fiacial Times, April 6, 2016, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ec468104-fb4b-11e5-b3f6-11d5706b613b.html#axzz454fvmair (accessed April 21 2016). 16. Adam Nossiter, As Terrorists Cross Borders, Europe Sees Aew That Its Itelligece Does Not, The New York Times, March 23, 2016, http://www.ytimes.com/2016/03/24/world/europe/as-terrorists-cross-borders-europe-sees-aew-that-its-itelligece-does-ot.html (accessed April 21, 2016). 17. Rya Heath, Zoya Sheftalovich, ad Chris Spillae, Belgium s 12 Worst Terror Misses, Mistakes ad Misuderstadigs, Politico.EU, March 29, 2016, http://www.politico.eu/article/the-dirty-doze-12-mistakes-that-codemed-brussels-to-terror-attacks-isil/ (accessed April 21, 2016). 18. Maïa de La Baume ad Giulia Paravicii, Europe s Itelligece Black Hole, Politico.EU, December 3, 2015, http://www.politico.eu/article/ europes-itelligece-black-hole-europol-fbi-cia-paris-couter-terrorism/ (accessed April 21, 2016). 19. News release, Iformatio Sharig a Defece Agaist Foreig Terrorist Fighters INTERPOL Chief, INTERPOL, September 30, 2015, http://www.iterpol.it/news-ad-media/news/2015/n2015-146 (accessed April 21, 2016). 7
There is also aother issue with the use of Iterpol: It has bee uwillig to susped the may despotic, authoritaria govermets that are members of the orgaizatio ad that have access to its databases. 20 The potetial for abuse of the system, with such govermets issuig Red Notices for political dissidets ad oppoets, is clear; i fact, this abuse has already take place. 21 This makes relyig o the veracity of the iformatio i the FTF database highly problematic. Fudig. The Brussels attack demostrated a worryig lack of capability amog certai parter atios. Few Europea coutries have advaced couterterrorism apparatuses or have devoted sigificat resources to defedig homelad security. For example, Belgium s domestic itelligece agecy has oly slightly more employees tha there are Belgias who have goe to fight i the Syria Iraq theater. 22 With the ISIS threat i Europe as advaced as it is, eve coutries that have ot bee scarred by terrorism must icrease spedig i this area. Law ad Order. Despite arrestig Salah Abdeslam, a member of ISIS s Europea etwork cell, Belgia authorities did ot questio him util the day after he was captured, ad the for just two hours. This iterrogatio focused o the attacks i Paris ad Frace s applicatio for a Europea arrest warrat. No questios were asked about future operatios. The Brussels suicide bombigs occurred shortly thereafter. It is this type of itelligece failure that led oe U.S. couterterrorism official to questio the competece of certai Europea itelligece agecies: Whe we have to cotact these people or sed our guys over to talk to them, we re essetially talkig with people who are I m just goig to put it blutly childre. They are ot pro-active, they do t kow what s goig o. They re i such deial. 23 Belgium s tolerat approach to law ad order also cotributed to the Brussels attacks. Oe of the bombers, Ibrahim el-bakraoui, was released approximately six years early from a 10 year setece for shootig a police officer with a Kalashikov rifle durig a bak robbery. Despite breakig his parole coditios that he ot be allowed to travel abroad he was picked up i Turkey i Jue 2015 ear the border with Syria el-bakraoui remaied free to carry out his attack i February 2016. Ability of ISIS to Hide i Plai Sight ad the Lack of Huma Itelligece. I the case of both the Paris ad Brussels attacks, a major terrorist cell used a Europea capital city as a base from which to acquire all of the materials eeded to costruct suicide vests ad pla complicated assaults. O multiple occasios, this plaig wet uoticed or ureported by the local commuity, suggestig distrust of the local police withi this commuity. Furthermore, the Belgia authorities, despite beig aware of the Molebeek muicipality s reputatio for radicalism, were uable to peetrate this cell with a huma asset i order to gai itelligece. A improvemet i either of these areas could have preveted the Brussels bombigs. Curret ad Future Challeges Military Impedimets. It is imperative that the ability of ISIS to gover territory be removed etirely or shruk massively, ad this ca be achieved oly militarily. I the short term, ISIS would seek to lash out agaist the West i retaliatio. Therefore, security may be most imperiled i the immediate aftermath of ay sigificat loss of territory that ISIS suffers. I the log term, however, loss of territory will pucture the image of ivicibility that ISIS attempts to covey. It will help to discredit its ideology ad legitimacy ad subsequetly will make it harder for ISIS to recruit foreig terrorist fighters. The curret U.S. military strategy agaist ISIS ivolves airstrikes ad dispatchig a limited umber of U.S. troops to provide support to local forces attemptig to retake ISIS territory. As part of this strategy, it is expected that the Iraqi army evetually 20. Ted R. Bromud ad David B. Kopel, Necessary Reforms Ca Keep Iterpol Workig i the U.S. Iterest, Heritage Foudatio Backgrouder No. 2861, December 11, 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/12/ecessary-reforms-ca-keep-iterpol-workig-i-the-us-iterest. 21. Ted R. Bromud, Puti s Log Arm: How Russia Uses Iterpol to Harass Oppoets, The Weekly Stadard, March 2, 2015, http://www.weeklystadard.com/putis-log-arm/article/859638 (accessed April 21, 2016). 22. Loveday Morris, Belgia Spy Chief Says He Wared o Budget Cuts as Jihadi Threat Grew, The Washigto Post, November 24, 2015, https://www.washigtopost.com/world/brussels-prepares-to-ease-security-lockdow-but-attack-fears-stay-high/2015/11/24/49bdda6a- 9226-11e5-befa-99ceebcbb272_story.html (accessed April 21, 2016). 23. Michael Weiss, Nacy A. Youssef, ad Nadette de Visser, U.S. Officials Bash Shitty Belgia Security Forces, The Daily Beast, March 22, 2016, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/22/u-s-officials-bash-shitty-belgia-security-forces.html (accessed April 21, 2016). 8
will attempt to retake Mosul from the South, ad Turkey will have to close the border with Syria so that ISIS has o space from which to regroup. Eve if this strategy were to prove successful, however, the etire veture is complicated by the sigificat presece of Iraia-backed Shia militia groups that are fightig for territory of cultural ad strategic ifluece to them ad are heavily mistrusted by the Sui populatio. Several other factors are udermiig the America military effort. For example, as the attacks i Brussels ad Paris prove, ISIS curretly poses a greater threat to Europea security tha it poses i the U.S., yet approximately 80 percet of airstrikes agaist ISIS are carried out by the U.S. 24 Whe it comes to the military cotributio agaist ISIS, the U.S. s closest ally is Frace, which carries out approximately 12 percet of the airstrikes. 25 The U.K. also has cotributed airstrikes, but the overall Europea effort (ot to metio the meager cotributio by the Gulf Cooperatio Coucil) is clearly dwarfed by the Petago s. While the size ad capacity of its military make it logical for the U.S. to assume a leadig role i this war, this does ot mea that Europea govermets should shirk their resposibilities. Oly five of NATO s 28 members (the U.S., U.K., Greece, Estoia, ad Polad) meet the requiremet to sped at least 2 percet of their GDP o defese. Give the variety of dagers the West curretly faces, this is uacceptable. Idepedet Returee Fighters. ISIS has ecouraged foreigers to travel to the caliphate ad fight alogside it i Iraq ad Syria. This has icreased the mapower of its army ad the legitimacy of its ewly formed state. While ot all joied ISIS, betwee 5,000 ad 6,000 Europeas are ow thought to have traveled to Iraq or Syria. 26 It is believed that almost 2,000 have ow retured to their coutry of origi. 27 There is cocer about the threat that these terrorist-traied idividuals pose upo retur. As FBI Director James Comey has commeted, Foreig fighters travelig to Syria or Iraq could, for example, gai battlefield experiece ad icreased exposure to violet extremist elemets. [T]hey may use these skills ad exposure to radical ideology to retur to their coutries of origi. 28 There does ot eed to be operatioal oversight from Raqqa for returig terrorists to carry out attacks; the caliphate has already provided all of the igrediets they eed. So far, the returees that have carried out attacks appear to have bee a part of the Abaaoud exus. Therefore, while the threat from returig fighters is very real, it has ot yet provably maifested itself with loe, radicalized actors carryig out attacks. The presece of a surroudig etwork has remaied importat so far. Turkish Border Issues. The Europea foreig fighter pipelie to ad from Syria/Iraq commoly rus through Turkey, a coutry that is a short, cheap flight away from Europe. The threat to Europe from ISIS-ispired terrorism caot be eased uless the log-ruig issue of the porousess of the Turkish Syria border is resolved. This is o easy matter; the border betwee Turkey ad Syria is over 500 miles log. However, the U.S. govermet has specifically ecouraged Turkey to deploy thousads of troops betwee the border tows of Kilis ad Jarabulus, a 60-mile stretch that ISIS curretly uses to shuttle foreig terrorist fighters icludig the Paris attackers i ad out of the caliphate. Turkey has recetly made attempts to improve border security, but this was ot always the case. Turkey adopted a stauchly ati-assad approach from the early days of the Syria civil war. This was due i part to legitimate cocers about a massacre occurrig i a eighborig coutry (more tha 250,000 have died i 24. Mark Thompso, U.S. Military Pla for Loomig ISIS Offesive Takes Shape, Time, February 26, 2015, http://time.com/3722740/isis-islamic-state-military/ (accessed April 21, 2016). 25. Tom Bowma, U.S., Frech, Russia Airstrikes Cotiue to Attack ISIS Targets i Syria, NPR, November 18, 2015, http://www.pr.org/2015/11/18/456541230/u-s-frech-russia-airstrikes-cotiue-to-attack-isis-targets-i-syria (accessed April 21, 2016). 26. Stoe, Terror Threat to Europe Highest for 10 Years, ; Agece Frace-Presse, More tha 6,000 Europea jihadists i Syria, EU Official Says, April 13, 2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ews/worldews/middleeast/syria/11531884/more-tha-6000-europeajihadists-i-syria-eu-official-says.html (accessed April 21, 2016). 27. Barbara Starr, Terror Threat i Europe as High as It s Ever Bee, Officials Say, CNN, February 3, 2016, http://www.c.com/2016/02/03/ europe/europe-threat-isis/idex.html?sr=twcnn020316europe-threat-isis0755pmstorygalphoto&likid=20944023 (accessed April 21, 2016). 28. James B. Comey, Statemet Before the House Homelad Security Committee, Washigto, D.C., September 17, 2014, https://www.fbi.gov/ews/testimoy/worldwide-threats-to-the-homelad (accessed April 21, 2016). 9
the Syria civil war, with Bashar al-assad usig chemical weapos ad barrel bombs ad carryig out torture o a idustrial scale) ad i part to sectaria impulses coicidig with strategic iterests i expadig the ifluece of Sui goverace i the Middle East. The cosequece of this approach was that Turkey opeed its border to Syria rebels followig the 2011 revolutio. Oe U.S. official commeted that [t]hey more or less let all kids of people i Nusra was some of them, some of them were secularists, Islamist, o-al- Qaeda groups. They were t siglig out ay group to favor, it was more of a laissez faire approach. 29 Accordig to a paper published by the Foudatio for the Defese of Democracies, Turkey is usig these irregular fighters i a bid to facilitate Assad s overthrow. 30 This attitude allowed large umbers of Westerers to travel to Syria via Turkey ad joi al-qaeda ad ISIS-aliged groups. As violet Islamist groups became more promiet i the oppositio, Turkey failed to toughe its border security. Turkey retais its ati-assad positio, oe that has bee hardeed by Russia s ifluece o Assad ad a sharp deterioratio i relatios betwee Turkish Presidet Recep Tayyip Erdoga ad Russia Presidet Vladimir Puti occurrig followig Turkey s dowig of a Russia fighter jet i November 2015. There is ow a suggestio from U.S. officials that Turkey s attitude toward border security has chaged. 31 This chage, however, has surely occurred because ISIS has ow carried out bombigs withi Turkey itself. The Refugee Crisis. A uprecedeted level of migratio ito Europe from the Middle East, Africa, ad the Balkas is fudametally chagig the cotiet. Eve excludig legal migratio, the EU s exteral border force estimated that 1 millio people etered Europe illegally i 2015. 32 The true umber, as the agecy accepts, will clearly be larger. There are o easy aswers i dealig with this problem, but security cocers must go had i had with humaitaria cocers, ad there is o doubt that there is a severe problem whe it comes to screeig. Oe diplomat told the House Committee o Homelad Security that refugees were barely screeed at all, commetig that there are o real cotrols. [The authorities] take figerprits, accept whatever idetificatio they provide if they have oe ad sed them o their way. The committee cocluded that a large proportio of the refugees ad migrats that have etered Europe this year are uregistered, ad eve those who have bee registered upo arrival have goe through a process that is rife with security holes. 33 For example, eve if registratio forms, photographs, ad figerprits are take, they are rarely cross-checked with couterterrorism watch lists. It is hardly surprisig, the, that Has Georg- Maasse, head of the Budesamt für Verfassugsschutz, Germay s domestic itelligece agecy, has cocluded that we have repeatedly see that terrorists have slipped i camouflaged or disguised as refugees 34 ad that Geeral Philip Breedlove, NATO Supreme Allied Commader Europe, told the Seate Armed Services Committee that the terrorists, ad the returig foreig fighters are clearly a daily part of the refugee flow i Europe. 35 29. Joatha Schazer ad Merve Tahiroglu, Borderig o Terrorism: Turkey s Syria Policy ad the Rise of the Islamic State, Foudatio for Defese of Democracies, Ceter o Sactios ad Illicit Fiace, November 2014, p. 10, http://www.defeddemocracy.org/cotet/uploads/publicatios/borderig-o-terrorism.pdf (accessed April 21, 2016). 30. Ibid. 31. Adam Etous, Gordo Lubold, ad Dio Nissebaum, U.S. Urges Turkey to Seal Border, The Wall Street Joural, November 27, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-urges-turkey-to-seal-syria-border-1448674401 (accessed April 21, 2016). 32. Daielle Sherida, Terrorists Exploitig Border Chaos to Retur from Syria, The Times, April 6, 2016, http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/ews/politics/article4728392.ece?sharetoke=ffa70f79d5119440aa5506f0d0b33e08 (accessed April 21, 2016). 33. Report, Syria Refugee Flows: Security Risks ad Couterterrorism Challeges, Prelimiary Fidigs of a House Homelad Security Review, Committee o Homelad Security, U.S. House of Represetatives, November 2015, p. 7, https://homelad.house.gov/wp-cotet/uploads/2015/11/ HomeladSecurityCommittee_Syria_Refugee_Report.pdf (accessed April 21, 2016). 34. Reuters, Germa Spy Agecy Says ISIS Sedig Fighters Disguised as Refugees, February 5, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germay-security-iduskcn0ve0xl (accessed April 21, 2016). 35. Associated Press, Terrorists a Daily Part of Refugee Flow ito Europe, NATO Commader Says, March 2, 2016, http://www.foxews.com/world/2016/03/02/terrorists-daily-part-refugee-flow-ito-europe-ato-commader-says.html (accessed April 21, 2016). 10
This has already show itself to be a productive tactic for ISIS. Two Iraqi cell members who carried out suicide attacks i Paris were able to eter Greece as refugees after producig fake Syria documetatio. A Palestiia bomb maker, Ahmad al-ami, also etered Europe with Syria refugees i the summer of 2015. 36 The impact of usig the refugee crisis to ifiltrate Europe i this maer is exacerbated by the fact that large umbers of ISIS sympathizers ad other pre-existig radical etworks were already operatig i the cotiet. Some of these sympathizers have carried out attacks i Europe or have bee thwarted from doig so. The presece of hardeed ISIS terrorists, recruiters, ad bomb makers from the Syria Iraq coflict who are ow potetially operatig amog, or eve guidig, some of those already radicalized idividuals oly heightes the threat that Europe faces. Impact o the Uited States Europe ad America possess a shared value system ad way of life. Both (broadly) share a belief i freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law, free speech, religious freedom, judicial idepedece, ad a respect for miority rights. They also share may of the same eemies, icludig ISIS ad al- Qaeda. There is clearly a shared iterest i ot allowig mutual values to be imperiled by a mutual eemy. The U.S. has demostrated a edurig commitmet to Europea security. Over 50,000 Americas were killed i World War I, ad aother 291,577 died durig World War II. Durig the Cold War, the Wester alliace particularly the U.S. U.K. Special Relatioship was fudametal i facig dow the threat of Commuism. It is vital that this alliace remais itact if ISIS, al-qaeda ad its supporters are to be strategically defeated. Otherwise, previous America sacrifices for Europe will have bee i vai. U.S. lives also are at risk. Americas have bee killed by Europea ISIS terrorists. It was a radicalized British citize, Mohammed Emwazi, who i August 2014 beheaded James Foley ad Steve Sotloff, the America hostages captured i Syria. Americas were imperiled by Ayoub el-khazzai s plaed trai attack i August 2015, a America college studet was killed i Paris i November 2015, four Americas were killed i the Brussels attack of March 2016, ad aother three were killed i the Nice attack of July 2016. The potetial for further casualties is clear. Americas make aroud 2.5 millio trips to Britai per year. A estimated 187,000 Americas (approximately the same as the populatio of Salt Lake City, Utah) live i the U.K., ad approximately 100,000 more live i Frace. America compaies ad military bases housed throughout Europe also are potetial terrorist targets; al-qaeda s Nizar Trabelsi was covicted i September 2003 for plaig a suicide attack agaist a NATO base housig U.S. soldiers i Brussels. Without America egagemet, Europe also might disegage militarily. Europe is overwhelmigly reliat o the U.S. military s capacity to wage war, but the U.S. also requires military support from its Europea allies. As well as cotributig to the actual fightig, Europea powers ca provide logistical support ad traiig assistace; Europea backig also adds iteratioal legitimacy to military itervetios. Yet a Jauary 2014 article i The Guardia, based o coversatios with seior officials at the Miistry of Defece (MoD), reported a growig reluctace i a icreasigly multicultural Britai to see U.K. troops deployed o the groud i future operatios abroad. This subsequetly affected MoD strategic defese reviews. Accordig to these military sources, there was a resistace i a icreasigly diverse atio to see British troops deployed i coutries from which U.K. citizes, or their families, oce came. There is also cocer that British troops have bee see takig actio maily i Muslim societies. 37 This was a euphemistic way of sayig that as domestic Muslim opiio disapproved of British military actio abroad, deployig troops abroad as i Iraq ad Afghaista would o loger be possible due to the U.K. s demographic compositio. I the U.K. s case, although may Europea coutries are vulerable to similar pressures, the scale of 36. Alfred de Motesquiou, Pr Pierre Mols : Nous avos soigé Abdeslam comme importe quel patiet, Paris Match, March 31, 2016, http://www.parismatch.com/actu/iteratioal/la-traque-de-l-artificier-de-daech-937879 (accessed July 19, 2016). 37. Patrick Witour, Multicultural Britai Rejectig Foreig Coflict, MoD Admits, The Guardia, Jauary 22, 2014, http://www.theguardia.com/uk-ews/2014/ja/22/multicultural-britai-foreig-coflict-mod (accessed April 21, 2016). 11
immigratio ito Europe caot be completely disassociated from atioal security ad foreig policy strategy. This ca oly have bee exacerbated by the refugee crisis. It is therefore vital that the U.S. remais egaged i the regio to remid Europe of its iteratioal resposibilities militarily, as upalatable as they may be to parts of the Europea electorate. What Needs to Be Doe There are several actios that the Uited States ca take to limit ad ultimately to defeat the threat of Islamist terrorism, both i the U.S. ad i Europe. Specifically: Break the Islamic State s cotrol of territory. The Islamic State derives much of its legitimacy from its success. The group s magazie, Dabiq, trumpets ISIS victories as a sig of Allah s favor ad eve has a recurrig feature, I the Words of the Eemy, which cosists of quotatios by seior Wester officials lametig ISIS gais. Drivig ISIS from its coquered territories will udermie the group s legitimacy ad hurt its ability to recruit. America leadership is eeded to achieve this. I the first istace, the U.S. should work to liberate Iraq ad help it to retai territorial itegrity. Cotiue to focus o defeatig both al-qaeda ad ISIS, icludig their regioal affiliates. Military defeat of ISIS ad al-qaeda i the Middle East ad Africa will ehace security i both the U.S. ad Europe, ad ISIS ad al-qaeda s regioal affiliates must all be cosidered part of the same fight. This meas focusig ot just o orthwest Pakista, Iraq ad Syria, but also o such coutries as Libya, Yeme, Afghaista, ad Somalia. Be willig to capture the eemy. Itelligece is vital to the war effort. That meas the U.S. must focus ot solely o killig al-qaeda ad ISIS leaders, but also o capturig them. This has ot bee prioritized durig the Obama Admiistratio. The capture ad iterrogatio of terrorists provides a isight ito their operatios that is ot acquired with a droe strike. Keep up the pressure o Turkey ad be willig to assist i securig Turkey s border with Iraq ad Syria. This is vital to prevetig the foreig terrorist flow i additio to beig a key compoet of the curret U.S. military strategy to dey ISIS territory from which to regroup. Expad the Foreig Fighter Surge Teams program throughout Europe. The U.S. must also provide assistace to vulerable Europea govermets i idetifyig those who aspire to travel to Syria or Iraq ad those who have retured. The Departmets of Homelad Security ad State are already assistig i Europea border security efforts, as well as ecouragig greater itelligece sharig ad coordiatio where possible. This should cotiue. Reform Iterpol to improve trackig of foreig fighters. No orgaizatio is perfectly placed to share iformatio iteratioally regardig foreig fighter travel, but Iterpol may be the oe that is best suited to this task. These efforts must be appropriately staffed ad fuded ad must be secure agaist efforts by dictatorships to exploit them. Ecourage Europea atios that are vulerable to terrorist attack to icrease spedig o itelligece ad adopt a more aggressive approach to couterterrorism. By carryig out two major attacks i a matter of moths, ISIS has proved that the curret approach to couterterrorism i Europe is isufficiet. The U.S. should ecourage Europea coutries to adopt a much more aggressive stace toward this issue. Reject calls for a EU-wide iformatiosharig etwork but ecourage Europea parters to break dow domestic itelligece firewalls. Istead of focusig o creatig a overly ambitious ew trasatioal EU framework, Europe should focus o ecouragig achievable domestic itelligece reforms withi idividual Europea coutries. The U.S. should provide assistace to its Europea allies o the breakig dow of itelligece firewalls withi coutries, which would help them to streamlie their operatios ad their dissemiatio of data. 12