THE SYRIA EFFECT Lebanon page 6-7 Jordan page 10 Turkey page 11

Issue 49 October 2012 1 TERRORISMTRACKER IN THIS ISSUE THE SYRIA EFFECT Lebanon page 6-7 Jordan page 10 Turkey page 11 FOCUS This month s edition focuses on: A bomb attack in Lebanon >> Page 6-7 Threats to foreign interests in Indonesia >> Page 8 Increasing threats from radical Islamist groups in Mali >> Page 9 A foiled terrorist plot in Amman >> Page 10 and The regional dimensions of the PKK >> Page 11 DISCLOSURE The latest threat warnings from governments around the world >> Page 3 WORLD NEWS IN BRIEF A monthly review of terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism activity around the world. >> Page 2 NEWS IN FOCUS A thwarted plot on Islamabad International Airport >> Page 4 an attack on a hotel in Kashmir >> Page 4 a bomb plot against the Federal Reserve Bank in the US >> Page 5 and a terrorist cell on trial in the UK >> Page 5 ATTACKS BY SECTOR A breakdown of business sectors affected by terrorist activity across the world in October >> Pages 12-13 UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED, ALL IMAGES LICENSED FROM PA IMAGES

WORLD NEWS IN BRIEF Issue 49 October 2012 2 AMERICAS On 11 October, Peru s Defense Minister announced plans to increase security along the country s major natural gas pipelines and throughout the Apurimac and Ene River Valley (VRAE) in the Cusco region to help prevent attacks by the Shining Path. Four days before the announcement, suspected Shining Path militants destroyed three helicopters owned by consortium Transportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP) on an airstrip in Cusco. The militants reportedly left a letter at the scene that threatened further attacks against companies working on the Camisea gas project in La Convencion province if war quota payments were not met. EUROPE On 23 October, a suicide bomber attacked a checkpoint in North Ossetia, Russia. The explosion killed a police officer and seriously wounded three others. The Interior Ministry said the bomber was most likely travelling to Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia s capital. The incident is the first suicide bombing in North Ossetia for two years. al-adha holiday, had little effect. Up to 150 people died between 27-28 October even though several opposition groups and the government announced they would adhere to the truce. The jihadist group Jabhat al-nusra rejected the ceasefire, but denied responsibility for a car bomb that killed ten civilians in southern Damascus on 26 September. NORTH AFRICA On 24 October a Libyan terrorist suspect died during a raid on an apartment that contained weapons and explosives in Nasr City, 10km east of central Cairo, Egypt. Media reports suggest he may have been involved in the 11 September attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi. The following day, Egyptian security forces arrested five terrorist suspects in Cairo in connection with the raid. SUB SAHARAN AFRICA On 12 October, a double grenade attack in Nairobi, Kenya, wounded three police officers. The attack occurred in Eastleigh a Somali-dominated area near the capital s central business district 100m from a church that was targeted in a grenade attack on 30 September. No group claimed responsibility, but the authorities suspect Al-Shabaab or its sympathisers were responsible. Al-Shabaab has made repeated threats against Kenya since its military incursion into southern Somalia began last October. SOUTH ASIA On 21 and 22 October, the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), an ethnic separatist group that is active mainly in Meghalaya state, northeastern India, kidnapped three engineers and four local market traders. In the last two months, the group has intensified its attacks, particularly kidnappings, as counterterrorism operations against it have become more frequent. MIDDLE EAST A UN-brokered cease-fire, aimed at curbing violence in Syria over the Eid Recruits training at a Jabhat al-nusra camp in Syria SOUTH EAST ASIA On 7 October, the Philippines announced a preliminary peace agreement with the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), providing a framework for the creation of new autonomous region in the country s south. Shortly afterwards, a government official warned that a breakaway faction of MILF, the Bangsamoro Liberation Freedom Fighters, had threatened to kidnap foreign aid workers in Central Mindanao.

DISCLOSURE Issue 49 October 2012 3 MOMBASA ON ALERT On 30 October, the Kenyan authorities increased security measures in the port city of Mombasa. According to a police report, reportedly seen by Capital FM News, terrorists may be plotting imminent attacks along the coast, including in Mombasa. Three days earlier, Al-Shabaab s leader said Kenya would soon regret its military involvement in Somalia. FCO WARNS OF HIGH TERRORISM THREAT IN LEBANON On 26 October, the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office warned there is now a high rather than general threat of terrorism in Lebanon. The warning came six days after the FCO changed its overall travel advice to the country and began warning British nationals to avoid all but essential travel to Lebanon. The revision to the terrorism threat level came a week after a targeted bomb attack in Beirut killed three people. SECURITY ON ALERT IN NIGERIA The authorities increased security across Nigeria in October ahead of Eid al- Adha. On 24 October, the Nigerian Joint Military Task Force warned that Boko Haram was plotting massive attacks on military and civilian targets in Borno state before, during and after the holiday. On 28 October, a suicide attack against a Catholic church in Kaduna, 800km from Boko Haram s main stronghold in Maiduguri, killed ten people and wounded over 100 others. DISSIDENT THREAT LEVEL TO BRITAIN DOWNGRADED On 24 October, MI5 lowered the threat level from Northern Irelandrelated terrorism to Great Britain from substantial to moderate. The downgrading assesses that an attack by dissident republicans is no longer highly likely but is possible, but unlikely. The last attack by an Irish dissident group on the UK mainland was in November 2001, when a car bomb failed to explode properly in Birmingham city centre. The terrorist threat level to Northern Ireland from Northern-Ireland related terrorism remains severe while the threat from international terrorism to the UK remains substantial. US ISSUES SHARM AL-SHEIKH WARNING On 22 October, the US Embassy in Egypt issued a message advising its citizens to avoid unsecured venues, including bazaars, shopping malls and night clubs or restaurants in Sharm al-sheikh during the Eid al-adha holiday. The warning cited local media reports that security forces had increased their level of preparedness across the Sinai in response to an airstrike in Gaza on 13 October that killed two terrorist group leaders. Several Gaza-based groups threatened to carry out retaliatory attacks against Israel following the airstrike. FRANCE INCREASE SECURITY AT SYNAGOGUES On 7 October, a day after blank bullets were fired at a synagogue in a Paris suburb, France s president said security measures would be increased around Jewish religious sites. The shooting followed a series of raids in Paris, Strasbourg, Nice and Cannes earlier that day where police arrested 11 suspected Islamist radicals and killed a man with suspected links to a grenade attack on a Kosher grocery store in Paris in September. WORD FROM THE UNDERGROUND This bold, heroic operation is the beginning of bigger operations against Iranian military targets that mercilessly oppress the Iranian people and participate in killing our people in beloved Syria... By the grace of God, the fire which Iran has started in the region has now reached Iranian territory and will set Iran all ablaze. On 24 October, a group calling itself Harakat Ansar Iran claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in the port city of Chabahar, southeastern Iran, on 19 October and threatened to stage further attacks against the Iranian regime. The group posted a picture of the alleged bomber on its blog.

NEWS IN FOCUS Issue 49 October 2012 4 PAKISTAN THWARTS PLOT ON ISLAMABAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT On 23 October, Pakistani authorities released a statement saying they had thwarted a suspected Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attack on Benazir Bhutto International Airport, which serves the capital and Rawalpindi. Two TTP terrorists were arrested on suspicion of planning the attack. Pakistan online newspaper, Dawn, reported that the suspects were arrested in a local hotel. According to the Terrorism Tracker database, this is the second foiled TTP plot on Islamabad this year, after the city police arrested two suspected TTP militants and stopped an alleged suicide plot targeting a mosque on 3 January. On the same day, the US Embassy released a security message on its website advising embassy staff against conducting official or personal business at the Serena and Marriott Hotels in Islamabad due to ongoing security concerns. It is unclear if the message was related to the arrests. The arrests came 12 days after a small bomb exploded in a car park at the airport. Airport security officials reported that the bomb was a low intensity device and resulted in no casualties or damage to the car park. Local news reports said the bomb was hidden inside a suitcase placed near a government vehicle, which may suggest it was the intended target. No further details were available. The US Embassy 23 October was the second to name a specific location in the last month; on 7 October the embassy warned its citizens of possible attacks in the capital, specifically mentioning the protected Red Zone and the Marriott Hotel, Serena Hotel, Holiday Inn, Best Western and Margalla Motel. The British and Australian embassies also updated their advice on 7 October, with the FCO warning that local security had been heightened in and around the Red Zone and at the international hotels. HOTEL ATTACKED IN KASHMIR On 19 October, four suspected militants attacked the Silver Star Hotel in the Lasjan area of Srinagar, the capital of Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack comes amid a rise in the incidence of violence in the region in recent months. According to local police accounts, gunmen initially fired on an Indian army vehicle travelling through the area. They then opened fire indiscriminately as they attempted to enter the four-star hotel, before fleeing. The incident killed a hotel staff member and injured two others. The police chief said the army convoy appeared to be the main target of the attack. The Urdu language Kashmir Uzma reported that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) claimed the attack to the newspaper on 20 October. The last attack that LeT claimed occurred on 8 July when militants killed a soldier in the Kadabal Chowk area of Pulwama District, around 25km south of Srinagar. According to the Terrorism Tracker database, the attack was the first to target civilian commercial interests in Srinagar this year. The most recent incident involving a hotel in the city occurred in July 2011, when police defused a 5kg bomb in a local hotel on Boulevard Road, close to Dal Lake, a popular tourist attraction. Security guards at Benazir Bhutto International Airport There has been a decline in the security situation in Indian-administered Kashmir in recent months. Militant groups have targeted civil society and local government members, including a member of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, the ruling party of the state, on 23 September. The Indian Express reported in July that Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) and LeT have recently started recruiting teenagers in Kashmir presumably to mount attacks in the region. Pakistani news outlets reported in July that groups such as HuM and LeT organised rallies and conferences to raise money and recruit new militants likely for potential future attacks.

NEWS IN FOCUS Issue 49 October 2012 5 BOMB PLOT AGAINST FEDERAL RESERVE FOILED On 17 October, US federal agents arrested a Bangladeshi man in a sting operation for allegedly attempting to detonate a 1,000 pound car bomb outside the Federal Reserve Bank in downtown New York. This was the thirteenth self-starter terrorism plot the US authorities have thwarted according to open source reports since October 2010. In nine of the cases, federal agents supplied plotters with phony weaponry. The FBI said the 21-year-old had travelled from Bangladesh to America Police car outside the Federal Reserve Bank on a student visa in January, with the intent of conducting a terrorist attack on US soil. In July, he apparently tried to recruit accomplices on the Internet but unwittingly befriended FBI agents on Facebook who he believed were Al- Qaeda leaders. Quazi Nafis was subsequently put under surveillance and an undercover agent sold him 20 50lb bags of what he believed were explosives. Nafis proceeded to buy detonators and timing devices, and was arrested as he attempted to detonate a car bomb outside the Federal Reserve with a mobile phone. Shortly before the attempted attack, Nafis made a video statement that claimed responsibility for the attack. And according to the FBI affidavit, he had written an article, which he gave to the undercover officer on a thumb drive in which he explained why he had targeted the Federal Reserve and the American economy. Nafis believed his article would be published in AQAP s English language magazine Inspire, and that his attack might disrupt the upcoming presidential election. Inspire has repeatedly encouraged sympathisers to mount attacks in the United States since the first issue was published in June 2010. In the most recent edition, which appeared on jihadist websites on the first year anniversary of Bin Laden s death in May, AQAP cited large strategic economic targets as the second-most important targets for individual jihad operations in the West. The foiled attack seems to show that this message has had some resonance. The FBI affidavit also said that Nafis had considered attacking the New York Stock Exchange and a high-ranking US official before setting his sights on the Federal Reserve. The thwarted plot happened barely a month after federal agents arrested a US citizen in Chicago as he attempted to detonate what he believed was a car bomb outside a bar. The authorities who had monitored the man for months conducted a similar sting operation in which an agent gave the plotter inert explosives to carry out the attack. UK TERRORIST CELL ON TRIAL Three members of an ostensibly homegrown terrorism cell are currently on trial in the UK for planning a major suicide attack that the authorities believe could have caused a greater number of casualties than the July 2005 London bombings. The men, who were arrested in Birmingham in September 2011, face 12 terrorism charges, including plotting to detonate eight homemade bombs in crowded urban areas. Prosecutors told the court that the cell ringleaders travelled to Pakistan in 2009 and 2010, where they were radicalised, received explosives training, and made martyrdom videos. During a major counterterrorism operation, police recorded the men discussing their plans, as well as other potential attack methods. These included smearing hand cream laced with poison on car door handles, and attaching blades on a vehicle and driving it into pedestrians. The latter example seems to reveal how jihadist propaganda produced by AQAP may have influenced the group. The second edition of Inspire, suggested that aspiring jihadists wield butcher blades or thick sheets of steel to the front of a pickup truck to create the ultimate mowing machine. UK and US authorities have disrupted a series of plots that have drawn on operational and tactical advice in Inspire in the past 18 months. Last November, the NYPD arrested an Al-Qaeda sympathiser in his mother s house, as he followed instructions from an Inspire article titled How to make a bomb in the kitchen of your mom.

Issue 49 October 2012 6 ASSASSINATION IN ASHRAFIYEH On 19 October, a targeted bomb attack in Beirut killed Brig. Gen. Wissam Al-Hassan, the head of intelligence at the Internal Security Forces. It was the first high-profile political assassination in Lebanon since the death of Wissam Eid, Hassan s former colleague, in 2008. The attacked occurred as people were returning home from work in Ashrafiyeh district, a Christian area in east Beirut at 1500hrs. The car bomb exploded in Ibrahim Monzer Street, a narrow side road just off Sassine Square, a popular shopping and commercial district where there are several international banks and retail businesses. Immediately after the incident, there were reports of large numbers of casualties with the number of injured reaching almost one hundred. There was much speculation in the press as to the target, ranging from the March 14 Headquarters to the Christian community. By early evening, local authorities confirmed the attack had killed Hassan. Despite initial reports of more casualties, only Hassan, his driver and a passerby Impact of the bomb The bomb scene died as a result of the blast, although there were scores of wounded. The targeted nature of the attack seems to rule out any speculation that this was an indiscriminate sectarian bombing on the Christian community. WHO WAS WISSAM AL-HASSAN? As a top ISF officer, associated with the anti-syrian march 14 movement, there are many potential suspects over Hassan s murder from across the political spectrum. Hassan played a central role in the August arrest and investigation of former minister Michel Samaha, who is alleged to have been plotting bombings against Sunni anti-assad figures in northern Lebanon. Hassan also provided evidence to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, which may have helped the STL indict four men linked to Hezbollah. Conversely, Hassan also worked with Hezbollah to unveil an Israeli spy ring within its ranks in 2009. ANATOMY OF THE ATTACK Hassan was travelling with his driver in a low-profile unmarked, unarmoured car. The attackers had reportedly parked a stolen car in which they planted a bomb that security sources have indicated weighed a TNT equivalent of 60-70kg.

Issue 49 October 2012 7 ASSASSINATION IN ASHRAFIYEH Date Target Vehicle Amount of Explosive 19 October 2012 Wissam Hassan Unarmoured 60-70kg 25 January 2008 Wissam Eid Unarmoured 40-50kg 3 January 2008 Antoine Ghanem Unarmoured 20-25kg 12 December 2007 Francois al-hajj Unarmoured 35kg 13 June 2007 Walid Eido Armoured 80kg 12 December 2005 Gebran Tueni Armoured 40kg 12 July 2005 Elias Murr (attempted) Unarmoured 20-30kg 14 February 2005 Rafiq Hariri Armoured >100 kg Source: US Department of State, 2008 was still attending a meeting abroad. He also reportedly varied his routes and evidently used low profile vehicles. This and the nature of the bombing seem to suggest a high level of preparation for the attack, strong intelligence and competent surveillance. Whoever was behind the bombing, Lebanese opponents of Syria and Hezbollah were quick to blame both and many Lebanese appear to have made up their minds about who was responsible. It seems that after at least three years, political assassinations have returned to Lebanon. Initial reports suggest that as Hassan drove past, someone detonated the bomb remotely. At the time of the attack, there were reports of two bombs and video footage of the immediate aftermath of attack published on Tayyar, show a secondary blast, although this could also have been an exploding fuel tank. The size and the possibility of a second device would distinguish this from previous bombings; if the estimate of the bomb size proves accurate, this would also make it a considerably larger device than previous assassination attacks on unarmoured vehicles. It could be that initial reports overestimated the size of the device as the narrow street intensified the blast. Or, the attackers may have been unsure if Hassan would be in an armoured car. PREPARATION AND OBSERVATION Although few facts about the attack are openly available, it seems to be a highly competent and ruthlessly executed targeted killing against a challenging target. As a high profile intelligence officer, Hassan was reportedly meticulous in planning his movements for personal security to the point that very few people knew he was even in the country, as he spread false reports he Firefighters fighting the blaze caused by the bombing

Issue 49 October 2012 8 POLICE FOIL PLOT IN JAKARTA On 26 and 27 October, units of the counterterrorism force Detachment 88 detained at least 11 suspected terrorists across Java in connection with alleged plots against several international and domestic targets on the island. According to the national police the group s targets include the US Embassy in Jakarta, the US Consulate-General in Surabaya, East Java, the Plaza 89 office building in Central Jakarta that houses several international firms, and the Police Mobile Brigade command centre in Central Java. If details of the alleged plot are confirmed it would be the second plot against foreign interests in Indonesia this year after Detachment 88 shot and killed five alleged militants plotting attacks on at least one Western target in Bali in March. It also would be the first planned attack on international interests in the capital since police broke up a plan to shoot foreign nationals outside the Singaporean Embassy in Jakarta in 2011. Police arrested four suspects in Jakarta, two in Bogor (West Java), three in Solo (Central Java) and two in Madiun (East Java), and also seized at least one bomb, as well as bomb-making materials, and instructions in both English and Indonesian apparently downloaded from the internet. THE ALLEGED CELL According to police, the detained suspects were members of the Salafist group Sunni Movement for Indonesian Society (HASMI). The exact relationship between this alleged group of suspects and a conservative, but previously nonviolent Islamist group, also using the acronym HASMI (but meaning Sunni Movement for Islamic Society) remains unclear. It is not clear from the available information whether former or current members of the non-violent group are involved in the plot, and if it represents the emergence of a violent terrorist plot against international targets from a legal, and hitherto peaceful, group. The police have named one of those arrested as Abu Hanifah who at least two regional academics have indicated may have had links to Noordin Mohammed Top, the leader of the Jemaah Islamiyah splinter cell Tanzim Qaedat al-jihad or Al-Qaeda in the Malay Archipelago. If these links are proven, this would be the second time in little over a month that Indonesian security forces have disrupted plots by cells with apparent links to Top. In mid-september, police arrested another group calling itself Al-Qaeda Indonesia in connection with alleged plots against national parliament and security force buildings in and around the capital. Both the recent anti-western plots also appear to have seen the suspects in possession of comparatively sophisticated explosives. According to one analyst at International Crisis Group, the group arrested in the October raids were also in possession of liquid nitroglycerin. Despite the shared connections to Top and apparently comparable bombmaking capability, the authorities have not revealed information to confirm a connection between the two groups. INTERNATIONAL TARGETS The alleged targets of the plotters reveal a notable deviation from the prevailing attack patterns over the previous three years. The death or imprisonment of much of the previous generation of jihadi leaders in Indonesia including Top seems to have eroded the capability of terrorist networks in Indonesia and shifted their focus to prioritise local state, political and religious targets. While overall, the capability of active militants in Indonesia seems to remain comparatively limited, the plots discovered in the past two months seem Two Detachment 88 officers escorting a detainee to show the lingering influence of men like Top and remnants of Jemaah Islamiyah on Islamist extremist cells. On 29 October, the US Embassy in Jakarta issued a security message to US citizens advising of arrests made in connection with plots against US Mission facilities and other targets. The US Embassy gave no indication that it had reassessed the overall threat level or noted a continuing threat. A Jakarta police spokesman said the force would not deploy additional forces around possible targets.

MALI: GROUPS INCREASE THREATS Issue 49 October 2012 9 Radical Islamist groups controlling northern Mali, including AQIM, MOJWA and Ansar al-din over the past two months have issued threatening statements against ECOWAS member states and possible Western backers of intervention in the region, as momentum builds behind international military action. They have also made calls on the wider Umma, or Muslim community, to join their fight. The statements combined with leadership reshuffles and ongoing cross-border terrorist activity into neighbouring countries such as Algeria and Niger suggests the groups are planning and preparing to defend against the military intervention. And that they will prove difficult to dislodge from the region. Highlighting their potential resources to mount a resistance, on 2 October, the US Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence said AQIM has earned approximately $120m from kidnap for ransom operations over the past decade. Military intervention appears likely in coming months after Mali s interim president officially requested UN approval and assistance for military intervention into the north of the country on 28 September. ECOWAS - the West African regional bloc - plans to provide 3,000 troops to the operation while the French government said it would provide logistical and intelligence support for the mission. On 12 October, the UN issued a resolution giving ECOWAS a 45-day deadline to provide details of the planned use of force before the international body can approve the mission. On 16 October, French Foreign Minister said the intervention would occur in weeks, not months. Seemingly, in response to these developments, throughout the month, AQIM, MOJWA and Ansar al-din stepped up their threats against Western interests. In an interview with AQIM s new Saharan emir Yahya Abu al-hammam on 20 October, he warned that if the Mauritanian government wants to remain outside the scope of being targeted by us [AQIM], then they know more than anyone what they must do. On 12 October, the Egyptian outlet Youm Essabia published another unofficial statement from MOJWA in which it called on Muslims in Mali and neighbouring countries, to fight the armies of the invading Crusaders. The following day AFP quoted the ostensible senior leader of Ansar al-din Oumar Hamaha who threatened the lives of hostages held by AQIM as well as French President Francois Hollande over France s support for intervention. There are conflicting reports about Oumar Hamaha Hamaha s allegiances to different groups in northern Mali, but the reference to AQIM hostages suggests some level of coordination between the radical Islamists. Since July, Hamaha has threatened to attack France, US as well as ECOWAS member states in the event that Mali and the West African bloc deploy troops to the north on several occasions. On 15 July, he warned, We promise that any country that enters into this assault, or participates in this assault, particularly the ECOWAS states, to strike them and move the war to the centre of their leadership, especially their nations capitals In early October, Arabic media quoted a MOJWA spokesman in which he threatened Western countries involved in the intervention and called on Muslims to support the fight. Specifically he said France and other Western countries that back the intervention would lose just as those armies that intervened in Iraq and Afghanistan. The previous month, AQIM warned France against supporting military intervention into northern Mali, stating this would, incur further tragedies and calamities for it and its people.

Issue 49 October 2012 10 PLOT DISRUPTED IN JORDAN At a press conference on 21 October, the Jordanian General Intelligence Department (GID) announced it had foiled a major plot on public areas popular with foreigners in Amman. This marks the first significant terrorist incident in Jordan since the start of the Syrian uprising in early 2011. The security forces arrested 11 Jordanian nationals who they accused of planning a major terrorist attack in Amman timed to mark the anniversary of the last major terrorist attack in the country, which was on 9 November 2005. In 2005, three suicide bombers detonated their charges Jordanian security forces in international hotels, central Amman, killing 60 people. The 11 men planned a complex and potentially deadly attack but were unaware that the GID was following them the whole time. They apparently experimented with explosive materials and carried out surveillance of potential targets, planning to use a combination of explosives, car bombs, machine guns and mortars. The security forces say all the plotters had spent time in Syria, highlighting the challenge to Jordan that the insecurity in Syria poses. The men also planned to bring explosives and mortar shells from Syria and reportedly had advice from terrorists in Iraq. MAXIMISING WESTERN CASUALTIES It seems the suspects selected their targets to maximise casualties. Specifically, they singled out shopping centres, diplomatic centres and residential areas in Amman, including Abdoun, an upmarket area popular with wealthy foreigners where many diplomatic buildings are located. It is unclear which diplomatic interests they wanted to target, but the most recent significant attack, in January 2010, was a roadside bombing against an Israeli Embassy vehicle near the Allenby Bridge crossing with Israel. The Jordanians arrested a taxi driver in connection with the attack but it remains unclear who was responsible. Following the GID announcement, Western governments updated their travel advice, advising of the plot, and on 24 October, the US Embassy issued a notice reminding citizens to maintain a high level of vigilance especially near hotels, tourist sites, and other locations where visitors gather in large numbers. The message implied it was in response to the recent counterterrorism events. THE SYRIA EFFECT Since the first round of arrests, the Jordanian security forces have reported several other security sweeps. The same day as the GID announcement, police picked up a Syrian in Jabal al-hussein in central Amman following a tip-off. That man led them to seven more Syrians in Amman and Irbid who allegedly had illegal equipment. The US State Department, in its 2011 report, described Jordan as a steadfast counterterrorism partner saying that during that year, because of the Jordanian security forces vigilance, several planned attacks were disrupted prior to execution. The same report questions whether the GID would be able to counter the terrorist threat emanating from Syria. Local news outlets report regular incidents of insurgents moving both into and out of Syria, despite army reinforcements along the northern Jordanian border. Highlighting this, on 22 October, the military reported that eight suspected militants tried to cross into Syria, clashed with border guards, and killed a soldier the first reported death of a Jordanian security forces member since Syria in early 2011.

Issue 49 October 2012 11 REGIONAL DIMENSIONS OF THE PKK This month, the PKK maintained the intensity of its campaign against Turkish armed forces in the southeast of the country, and there were several events which suggest the group may be coordinating its activities across borders, most notably that of Syria. According to the Terrorism Tracker database, since early August there has been a monthly average of 22 terrorist attacks in Turkey predominantly targeting security forces. This is since the Turkish army launched a fresh offensive against the group in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq. This figure is 57% higher than the average rate of attacks for the three months preceding the offensive, suggesting the conflict is escalating. This intensification is part of a broader long-term increase in the level of violence in Turkey, but it may also be due to the changing strategic environment in the region, particularly in respect of Syria. In the past year, there has been a 48% increase in the number of attacks compared with the same period in 2010-11. Attacks have become more concentrated in the southeast particularly in areas close to the borders with Syria, Iran and Iraq. The increasing attacks in southeastern Turkey suggests the PKK has built up and can sustain its forces in the area. The geographical clustering of attacks also suggests the group may have increasingly coordinated with affiliates or is directly operating near bases in neighbouring countries. A Turkish media report this month claimed the PKK has established an arrangement with the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK, a Kurdish separatist group in Iran) to smuggle weapons across the border. In addition, on 11 October the Turkish parliament extended an existing mandate for the army to target PKK militants in Iraq for another year which suggests the government expects the PKK presence in Iraq to be a persistent issue in the medium to long term. ANKARA, DAMASCUS, AND THE PKK The long-running confrontation between Ankara and the PKK has its own momentum, which predates the uprising in Syria. However, the deteriorating security situation in northern Syria following the uprising seems to be contributing to an increased risk of terrorist activity in Turkish border areas. The need to contain Kurdish separatist groups in Turkey and Syria has previously seen some level of cooperation between Ankara and Damascus. However, since the Syrian uprising this mitigating factor is unravelling.turkish support for the FSA opposition dramatically increased tension between the countries, especially since Syrian forces fired a mortar shell into a Turkish border town on 3 October. In addition, Turkey has accused the Syrian government of providing support to PKK militants. This raises the possibility that Ankara s efforts to tackle Kurdish separatism will become entangled in the standoff with Damascus. Complicating things further, the PKK is closely affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) a Kurdish group in the north of Syria. With the assent of the Assad government, the PYD has reportedly consolidated its control over several Kurdish towns in northern Syria, and has deployed its own fighters against the FSA insurgency. The PYD now reportedly controls border crossings at Ras al-ain and al- Turkish armed forces Qamishli in northern Syria, which cross into Mardin and Sanliurfa provinces close to the PKK core operating area in the southwest of the country. The Turkish media outlets have expressed concerns that these areas could become a platform for the PKK to launch further attacks against Turkish territory. Currently, there is little open evidence that confirms the Assad regime is supporting the PKK. The PYD has also repeatedly denied that it is allowing the PKK to plan and execute attacks in Turkey from Kurdish areas in northern Syria. However, a senior PKK leader recently indicated the group would carry out violent reprisals on Turkish territory, if the Turkish army attacked Syrian Kurds.

ATTACKS BY SECTOR Issue 49 October 2012 12 OIL AND GAS On 18 October, suspected FARC militants bombed a gas pipeline in Cauca department, Colombia. Burning gas from the damaged pipeline set fire to a nearby village, injuring three people. During the attack, militants reportedly damaged an electrical tower in the same area belonging to the Interconexión Eléctrica power company. FINANCIAL A bomb exploded near the Philippines Land Bank in Sultan Kudarat province on 18 October, but failed to cause any casualties. Security officials suspected the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement of being involved. The explosion was the third to hit Mindanao in under two weeks, and came as several militant groups in the southern Philippines criticised ongoing peace talks. On 8 October, militants detonated a bomb near a natural gas pipeline in southeastern Turkey, causing a stoppage in the flow of gas from Iran. The explosion reportedly left a large crater in the ground in Agri province. Four days earlier, an explosion in the Baku-Tbilisi- Erzurum pipeline stopped the flow of Azerbaijani natural gas to Turkey. Police blamed the PKK for both attacks. In Peru, suspected Shining Path militants burnt three corporate helicopters at a jungle airstrip in Kiteni town, Cuzco region on 6 October. The militants targeted helicopters reportedly owned by Gas consortium Transportadora de Gas del Peru. A Peruvian military spokesman said the army had sent troops to the airstrip to defend against possible future attacks. CONSTRUCTION On 19 October, suspected Boko Haram militants shot and killed a Chinese construction worker in Maiduguri, Nigeria. Three weeks earlier, gunmen killed a Chinese cook working with a construction company, as well as a Nigerian employed by the Chinese firm. No group claimed responsibility for the attack. In Afghanistan s Wardak province, suspected Taliban militants fired a rocket at a construction company building on 10 October, killing two employees and injuring two others. The authorities linked the attack to the Taliban, but no group claimed responsibility. TRANSPORT In India s Assam state, security forces on recovered a bomb from a train track in Barpeta Road railway station 17 October. The bomb, reportedly weighing 800 grams and fitted with electrical wires, was hidden under rocks near the track on platform two. On 3 October in Pakistan, a bomb blast at a busy bus terminus in Karachi damaged the building and led to a suspension of bus services. Militants reportedly placed the bomb under a bus heading towards Swat valley and detonated the device before it left the station. No group claimed responsibility. In northeastern Colombia on 3 October, police evacuated the Santiago Perez Quiroz Airport in Arauca Source: www.terrorismtracker.com department after a bicycle loaded with explosives was found near the main building. Authorities diverted flights to and from the airport until they could defuse the bomb. Approximately 80,000 passengers pass through the airport each year. MEDIA On 14 October, a bomb attack injured a journalist and two others in the Mezzeh district of Damascus, Syria. The device was reportedly fixed to the underside of the journalist s vehicle and exploded in an area where a number of foreign

ATTACKS BY SECTOR Issue 49 October 2012 13 embassies are located. No group claimed responsibility, although Jabhat al-nusra claimed several other targeted attacks, as well as attacks on the pro-government media in the Damascus area in the past three months. On 12 October, Pakistan s media reported that the TTP planned to attack national and international media outlets. This is allegedly in retaliation for media criticisms over the TTP shooting of a 14 year old girl in the Swat earlier in the month. The group has threatened local media outlets in the past, including in June when it threatened Karachi-based Geo TV. TOURISM In India, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) claimed an attack on an army convoy near Srinagar Railway Station in Jammu and Kashmir on 19 October. As the militants attempted to flee the scene, they forced their way into the lobby of a nearby hotel popular with foreign travellers and fired indiscriminately, killing one staff member and injuring two others. Suspected New People s Army militants in the Philippines planted a bomb near the Maxandria hotel in Cagayun de Oro city on 11 October. The police responded to reports of a suspicious package outside the hotel. The device exploded, killing two civilians and injuring a police officer who was inspecting the package. In Nigeria, a bomb detonated inside a hotel in Zaria town, Kaduna state on 3 October resulting in structural damage to the building but no casualties. The hotel s bar was screening a live match from the European Champions League that evening, and the bomb blast was reportedly timed to coincide with the end of the match, when customers were leaving the premises. While no group claimed responsibility for the attack, Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for bombings in Zaria in the past. RETAIL On 13 October in Pakistan, a suicide bomber drove a car into a crowded market in Darra Adamkhel, killing 16 people and injuring 30 others. The incident occurred 30 km south of Peshawar and damaged dozens of shops in the market. No group claimed responsibility; however, the TTP have conducted and claimed several similar large-scale bombings in the area over the past year. Source: www.terrorismtracker.com TERRORISMTRACKER DATABASE AND LIVE THREAT MAP Terrorism Tracker is a comprehensive global database of terrorist attacks and plots. Each terrorist event is geo-tagged to allow its actual location to be viewed using the Google Maps interface. Terrorism Tracker is updated daily, with new events displayed as they occur. Terrorism Tracker will become an essential part of your threat monitoring activities. Access is available free of charge to all clients of Aon s Counter Terrorism team or by subscription from Janusian. For further information about access to Terrorism Tracker please speak to your Aon broker or visit www.terrorismtracker.com. ABOUT AON Aon has developed a unique approach to terrorism risk management, combining expert consulting with the most appropriate risk transfer solutions. Aon s specialist Crisis Management division provides integrated risk mitigation, management and transfer solutions against terrorism, political risk, kidnap for ransom, extortion, product contamination and recall. Aon is the leading global provider of risk management services, insurance brokerage, and human capital consulting, delivering distinctive client value through its 62,000 colleagues and 600 offices in more than 120 countries. Aon is regulated by the Financial Services Authority in respect of insurance mediation activities only. FP ref: 5808. ABOUT RISK ADVISORY Risk Advisory provides security consultancy and services to multinational companies and other large organisations. We have particular expertise in the assessment and management of terrorism risk and in assisting clients to develop suitable security strategies. The Risk Advisory team combines intelligence analysts and security specialists, who work in close cooperation to ensure that our advice is appropriate to the threats our clients encounter and their business needs. www.aon.com crisismanagement@aon.co.uk www.riskadvisory.net/ security-intelligence@riskadvisory.net