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Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center News of the Terrorism and Israeli- Palestinian Conflict October 28-November 4, 28 The Gaza Strip: Hamas/Izz al-din al-qassam Brigades military display in the Nuseirat refugee camp after completing training exercises (Al-Aqsa TV, October 3). Overview This past week Hamas violated the lull arrangement again when a group of terrorists tried to plant an IED near the Gaza Strip security fence and fired two anti-tank missiles at IDF soldiers. In Judea and Samaria there was an increase in stone-throwing and several pipe charges were discovered. The Palestinian security forces continued their activities to restore law and order to the Hebron district and damage the Hamas infrastructure. Preparations continued for opening the national reconciliation conference in Cairo. Senior Fatah, as well as Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organization figures, are expected to attend. The draft of a document prepared by the Egyptians before the conference was met with reservations from Hamas. The preparations are taking place under the shadow the ongoing Hamas-Fatah propaganda war. The security activities carried out by the Palestinian Authority in the Hebron district have added to the basic lack of trust between the two sides.

2 Important Events The Gaza Strip Anti-Tank Missiles Fired for the First Time since the Inception of the Lull Arrangement On October 31 an IDF force saw a group of terrorist operatives truing to lay an IED near the security fence north of the Sufa crossing. The soldiers approached the terrorists, who fired two anti-tank missiles at them. The force returned their fire and the terrorists escaped. Additional forces arrived and combed the area for other IEDs (IDF Spokesman s website, October 31). The incident marked another violation of the lull arrangement, the first of its type since the arrangement went into effect four months ago. On November 2 the Army of Islam 1 claimed responsibility for the attack (Nablus Television website, November 2). Judea and Samaria Broad-scale stone-throwing continues in Judea and Samaria: November 2 A group of 8 Palestinians threw stones at Israeli security forces near the village of Na alin. The soldiers used riot control equipment to disperse them. In another incident, Palestinians threw stones at an Israeli vehicle south of Nablus. October 3 An Israeli civilian was wounded and his vehicle was damaged by stones thrown southwest of Bethlehem. During a search of the area two suspects were detained. Earlier, Palestinians threw stones at an Israeli bus near Hawara, south of Nablus. There were no injuries; the bus was damaged. October 29 An Israeli civilian was wounded and his vehicle was damaged by rocks thrown southeast of Hebron. October 29 Palestinians threw stones at an Israeli bus southwest of Bethlehem. There were no injuries but the bus was damaged. In another incident stones were thrown at an Israeli vehicle west of Ramallah. There were no injuries and no damage was done. 1 The Army of Islam is a Palestinian network in the Gaza Strip with a few dozen operatives who subscribe to global jihad ideology and maintain contacts with its operatives. It is headed by Mumtaz Dughmush, a member of a powerful Gaza Strip clan. For further information see our May 2, 27 Bulletin entitled The Army of Islam, a radical Islamic Palestinian terrorist group in the Gaza Strip, claimed responsibility for the abduction of British journalist Alan Johnston at http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/english/eng_n/pdf/islam_troops_e.pdf.

3 Counterterrorism Activities During the past week the Israeli security forces counterterrorism activities continued in Judea and Samaria: October 3 The Israeli security forces discovered three pipe charges during an action in Qabatiya, south of Jenin. They were detonated in a controlled explosion. Two weeks ago two IEDs weighing 2 kg (44 lb) were discovered in the same area. October 3 An IDF force found a pipe charge near Bethlehem. It was detonated in a controlled explosion. October 29 During the night a Palestinian shot at an IDF force carrying out counterterrorism activities in the village of Al-Yamoun (northwest of Jenin). The soldiers returned fire and killed the shooter. A hunting rifle was found in his possession. The Palestinian media claimed he was a 67-year old man (Wafa News Agency, October 29). His son was killed a few years ago by IDF fire while he was wanted for Fatah/Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade activities. Thousands of Palestinians attended his funeral and called for revenge. Rifle found in the possession of the Palestinian who shot at IDF forces at Al-Yamoun (Photo courtesy of the IDF Spokesman, October 29).

4 Statistical Data Monthly Distribution of Rocket Hits in Israeli Territory 3 241 257 25 196 2 145 149 15 113 1 87 59 65 5 1 8 1 2 Oct. Nov, Dec. Jan Feb Mar Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8, Oct.-8 Monthly Distribution of Mortar Shells Fired into Israel 4 373 35 3 25 228 2 87 1 19 136 13 26 158 15 1 3 3 5 Oct. Nov. Dec Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct.-8

5 Monthly Distribution of Attacks 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Grenades Explosive Charges Suicide Bombers Personal Assaults Anti-Tank Fire Small Arms Fire Monthly Distribution of Israeli Casualties 82 9 8 7 53 46 6 5 Total Killed Total Wounded 23 2 9 1 17 2 2 2 25 3 1 33 8 27 2 1 4 8 3 15 1 4 3 2 1 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8

6 The Lull Arrangement Update The Gaza Strip Crossings This past week the Gaza Strip crossings operated normally, with the exception of October 3, when they were closed because of a mistaken report of rocket fire into Israeli territory. The Rafah Crossing This week as well the Rafah crossing was open intermittently for the passage of patients and pilgrims from Egypt to the Gaza Strip. On November 4 it opened for three days for patients, foreign passport holders, students and others with authorization (Wafa News Agency, November 4). The Tunnel Industry On October 28, 29 and November 2 the Palestinian media reported that about 2 tunnels between the Gaza Strip and Executive Force collapsed after stormy weather and heavy rainfall. According to Egyptian security sources, 13 tunnels were destroyed (Agence France Presse, November 3). Some of them had been dug under the cemetery in Rafah, and graves collapsed into the flooded tunnels (Quds Press), October 29). A number of men were injured and three were reported missing. The cemetery in Rafah. Tunnels dug between the Gaza Strip and Egypt collapsed, destroying several graves (Al-Aqsa TV, October 29). A few days after the tunnels were flooded their owners began reconstructing them by drying the area around the openings on the Palestinian side. On the Egyptian side tunnel owners faced reconstruction difficulties because of the broad deployment of Egyptian forces in the area (Felesteen, November 2). In the middle of Sinai the Egyptian security forces uncovered an explosives cache containing eight rockets ready for smuggling into the Gaza Strip (Al-Khalij, October 3). Hamas propaganda ignores and even denies the continuing smuggling of large quantities of weapons into the Gaza

7 Strip through the tunnels and sends foreign correspondents the false message that the tunnels are only used to smuggle civilian goods and are necessary because of Israel s siege of the Gaza Strip. 2 The Abducted Israeli Soldier, Gilad Shalit Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak told an Israeli reporter on October 31 that according to my information, Gilad Shalit s condition is good He added that the Palestinians aren t stupid. They know that if they kill him there will be repercussions. He said that there would be an answer to the letter Shalit recently received (Smadar Peri, Yedioth Ahronoth, October 31, 28). 3 Hamas continues its threats to abduct other Israeli soldiers to be used as bargaining chips for the release of Palestinian prisoners. At a police commanders graduation ceremony in Gaza, Tawfiq Jaber, police chief in the Gaza Strip, called for more Israeli soldiers to be abducted, saying that even if we have Shalit, we will [still] bring a thousand more Shalits to release prisoners from the jails of the occupation (Al-Aqsa TV, October 3). Attempts have been made to carry out the threats on the ground: on September 21, 28, the Israel Security Agency and IDF forces detained Jamal Atallah Sabah Abu Duabe, a resident of Rafah who tried to infiltrate into Israeli territory through the Egyptian border to abduct Israeli soldiers and smuggle them into the Gaza Strip. 4 The terrorist organizations have also been holding training exercises simulating the abduction of Israeli soldiers (See below). The Future of the Lull Arrangement Musa Abu Marzuq, deputy head of Hamas s political bureau, said that the lull arrangement was a national Palestinian need and that extending it would be done nationally (i.e., by the various Palestinian terrorist organizations and not only by Hamas). He admitted that Israel kept to the terms of the lull arrangement in general when it came to security activity, despite a number of exceptions. However, he said, with regard to the crossings Israel does not meet even one of the commitments concluded with the Egyptians (the Jordanian newspaper Al-Sabil, October 28). 2 For further information see our October 28, 28 Bulletin entitled Hamas has lately regulated the flourishing tunnel industry in the Gaza Strip at http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/english/eng_n/pdf/ct_e9.pdf. 3 During the recent summit meeting in Damascus, French president Nicolas Sarkozy gave a letter to the Emir of Qatar from Gilad Shalit s father. On September 4 it was passed on to Khaled Mashal, head of Hamas s political bureau in Damascus, and according to media reports was delivered to Gilad Shalit. 4 For further information see our October 26, 28 Bulletin entitled The Israeli security forces detained a terrorist from Rafah who infiltrated into Israel through Egypt at http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/english/eng_n/pdf/ct_e8.pdf.

8 The Terrorist Organizations Continue Training in the Gaza Strip On October 3 the Izz al-din al-qassam Brigades held training exercises at the Nuseirat refugee camp (in the central Gaza Strip). They included taking control of an Israeli military post using live ammunition and hand grenades. After the exercises Hamas operatives marched through the streets of the refugee camp, ending with a military display at which calls were heard for the release of senior Hamas figure Ayman Nufal, imprisoned in Egypt (Al-Aqsa TV, October 3). Hamas/Izz al-din al-qassam Brigades operatives undergoing military training at the Nuseirat refugee camp (Al-Aqsa TV, October 3). Hamas/Izz al-din al-qassam Brigades military display at the Nuseirat refugee camp (Al-Aqsa TV, October 3). The Palestinian Islamic Jihad website Qudsnet reported a large military exercise carried out by a group called Brigades of the Jihad Fighters in Palestine (in our assessment a fictitious name) in the southern Gaza strip on November 1. The exercises included firing light and medium arms, mortar shells and RPGs, and throwing bombs. The terrorist operatives also practiced abducting Israeli soldiers. Group spokesman Abu Bilal said that the exercises were meant to prove that his organization was ready for any new aggression, especially when the lull arrangement is close to coming to an end (Qudsnet website, November 1). The Second Protest Boat Reaches Gaza s Shores On October 29 a boat reached the shores of the Gaza Strip carrying 27 pro-palestinian activists, members of an organization called Free Gaza (Free Gaza website, October 3). The activists toured the Gaza Strip for three days (Ramattan News Agency, October 3). On November

9 1 Al-Jazeera TV broadcast a press conference from the Gaza port attended by Hamas administration prime minister Ismail Haniya and other senior Hamas figures, who praised the activists and the Popular Committee for the Struggle against the Siege (PalMedia website, November 1). The boat s arrival was received with less media coverage than the first Free Gaza boat. Left: The Free Gaza boat entering the Gaza port (Al-Jazeera TV, October 29). Right: Hamas administration prime minister Ismail Haniya presenting medals to the Free Gaza activists (Al-Aqsa TV, October 29). Hamas and the other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip praised the boat s arrival, representing it as another positive sign of the lifting of the siege of the Gaza Strip. A press conference was held on the boat after it returned to Cyprus, during which Mustafa al-barghouti, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council who sailed with the activists, said that on November 7 another boat would leave for the Gaza shores with 15 members of European parliaments and medical equipment (Ma an News Agency, November 2). The Internal Palestinian Arena The Hamas-Fatah National Dialogue The national Palestinian dialogue is expected to begin on November 9. After the opening session a number of committees will meet to try and translate the Egyptian document of principles (for which Hamas presented a list of reservations) into an agreement between Fatah and Hamas (and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations). When the dialogue ends in early January 29, another conference is planned for Cairo. The Palestinian media have reported that if no agreement is reached, the issue will be transferred to the Arab League (Al-Ayyam, Al-Quds, October 29). The opening session is expected to be attended by PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Hamas political bureau Khaled Mashal and PIJ general secretary Ramadan Shalah (Al-Hayat, Nidaa al-quds website, Qudsnet, October 3). The foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Yemen, Qatar and Syria are also expected to attend (Al-Quds, October 3).

1 On November 3 the Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo. Among its members were Musa Abu Marzuq, deputy head of Hamas political bureau in Damascus, and senior Hamas activist Muhammad Nasser. It also includes Mahmoud al-zahar and Khalil al-hayeh, from inside (Middle East News Agency, November 3). The delegation will meet with Omar Suleiman, head of Egyptian general intelligence, to discuss Hamas s reservations to the Egyptian draft (Felesteen, November 3). Egypt has made it clear that it is not willing to make changes in its draft. Egyptian sources said that every change in the document is the responsibility of the Palestinians alone and they will have to agree among themselves (Al-Hayat, October 3). PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas said in a television interview that he had no intention of extending his term of office and that elections for the Palestinian presidency and the Palestinian Legislative Council would be held at the same time in accordance with the law. He said that after the elections he would step down (Palestinian TV, October 31). As to holding presidential and Palestinian Legislative Council elections at the same time, Khaled Mashal said he would agree but only on the following terms: the establishment of a national unity government, the reconstruction of the Palestinian security services, and a time table for reforms within the PLO (Al-Hayat, November 2). Hamas Released Fatah Detainees in the Gaza Strip Ismail Haniya ordered the release of 17 Fatah political prisoners in the Gaza Strip, as, he said, a goodwill gesture for the upcoming internal Palestinian dialogue (PalMedia website, October 3). Hamas expressed its hope that Fatah will reciprocate in Judea and Samaria. While Fatah lauded the release, it was made clear that it did not signal the end of the political prisoner issue. Fatah spokesman Sami al-za arir said that Hamas s prisons were full of political prisoners and that Hamas s recent statement was clear proof that human rights violations against Fatah members continue (PNN, October 3). Hamas police officers graduation ceremonies, at which Hamas administration prime minister Ismail Haniya announced the release of Fatah prisoners (Al-Aqsa TV, October 3).

11 The PA s Security Activities in the Hebron District The Palestinian security services continue their intensive activities in the Hebron district as part of a comprehensive campaign. 5 The activities have been extended to the villages and towns. During the campaign several dozen wanted criminals were detained and weapons, drugs and foods whose expiry dates had passed were confiscated. Road blocks were set up to check for stolen cars. In addition, Hamas operatives were detained, their weapons confiscated, while charitable societies affiliated with Hamas were closed and funds were seized. Samih al-sifi, commander of Palestinian national security, confirmed in an interview that armed groups had been detained and that terrorist attacks had been prevented. However, he added that the objective of the activity was not to stamp out Hamas but to detain armed operatives of the movement and of other organizations. He also said that the deployment of forces in Hebron was an important achievement because it was the first time that Palestinian security services were allowed to enter areas which had previously been closed to them. He said he had met with more than 4 village elders from the Hebron district and received their blessing to continue the campaign. Palestinians who had initially been suspicious of the security services activities were now praising them, he said (Al-Quds Al-Arabi, October 28). Hamas spokesmen continued criticizing the activities of the Palestinian security services, claiming that they are carried out in collaboration with Israel. Sources in Hebron even threatened that Hamas would try to sabotage the security services activities (Time Magazine, October 28). In response to the Hamas claim that the Palestinian security services had turned over to Israel two Hamas operatives detained in Hebron, Waal al-bitar and Ahmed al-awiwi, the Hebron governor, Hussein al- Aaraj, held a press conference with the two sitting next to him in the custody of the Palestinian security services (Ma an News Agency, October 28). The PA Opposes East Jerusalem Arabs Voting in the Jerusalem Municipal Elections The PA announced that it opposed East Jerusalem Arab participation in the Jerusalem municipal elections. Abd al-kader, prime minister Salam Fayyad s advisor, said that participation in the elections, whether as candidates or voters, is a criminal offense, and steps will be taken against criminals, because it is an attack on Jerusalem s sovereignty and Arab nature. Taysir al-tamimi, the chief justice of the Palestinian sharia, issued a fatwa forbidding participation in the elections 5 For further information see our October 27, 28 Bulletin entitled The Palestinian security services carry out intensive security activity in the Hebron district (Update and implications) at http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/english/eng_n/pdf/ct_e1.pdf.

12 and said that it is express recognition of the Israeli occupation (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, October 28). The Coalition of the NGOS in East Jerusalem wrote an open letter warning residents against taking part in the elections, which would only strengthen the Israeli claim to sovereignty over the city (Al- Hayat Al-Jadeeda, November 2).