Improved Security Provides Opening for Cooperation March April 17 Survey Findings Page 1
National Survey (excluding areas currently held by ISIS) March 26 April 21, 17 The research 1,338 respondents (unweighted 2, respondents) 293 Baghdad respondents (unweighted 5 respondents) 5 South respondents (unweighted 5 respondents) 363 West respondents (unweighted 5 respondents, including interviews in Mosul city) 184 Kurdistan respondents (unweighted 5 respondents) Margin of error on national sample: +/- 2.19 +/- 4.4% in each region Oversamples of those who lived under ISIS interviews in the Khazer M1 camp, Ninewa 1 interviews in Salahaddin, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year 1 interviews in Anbar, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year Data excluded from national sample, since selected on criteria (not randomly) Page 2
The Iraq Dashboard Bounce back from historic lows Metric/survey question Current % Change Jan 16 Movement Country direction, % right, total 39 +29 Much Better Security, % better, total 6 +26 Much Better Electricity supply, % better, total 39 +12 Better Corruption, % better, total 13 +3 Stable Job opportunities, % better, total 12 +1 Stable Abadi favorability, % favorable among Shia 46 +15 Better Abadi favorability, in West 68 +52 Much Better Sectarianism, % better, total 62 +32 Much Better Iraq is mostly unified %, total 45 +3 Stable Sunni/Shia relations, % better, total 84 +4 Much Better KRG/Baghdad relations, % better, total 22 +18 Better Kurdish direction, % right, Kurdistan only 43 +15 Better Page 3
Improved security drives optimism Page 4
Overall country mood rebounds Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? 1 Right direction Wrong direction 82 8 6 45 5 5 5 48 54 65 51 55 65 59 4 44 41 41 37 44 4 31 41 34 26 39 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 1 Page 5
Optimism in all regions except Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Jan 16 +29 +31 + +28 +16 +59 +3 Right direction 1 8 95 6 59 57 64 62 62 64 4 39 41 32 36 35 34 Total Urban Rural Baghdad South West Kurdistan 3 Page 6
Iraqi priorities shift as security improves Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address Jan 16 Corruption Jobs and unemployment 41 43 +3 +5 Security 34-12 Sectarianism Basic services like electricity and water High prices Education and schools Infrastructure, like roads and bridges Health care services Internally displaced Iraqis 15 14 13 13 9 9 3 1 3 4 5 +5-8 +4 +6 N/A N/A -6 Page 7
Perceptions of Army improve dramatically Page 8
1 8 6 58 More than 4 in 5 now favorable to Army Now, Generally I'd like speaking, to rate your do you feelings approve toward or disapprove some people, of the organizations, job Haider al-abadi and things, is doing with as prime minister? 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. Favorable Unfavorable 66 59 81 4 32 18 19 12 Oct-1 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Page 9
1 Strong ratings for Army, except in Kurdistan Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. Jan 15, favorable % Favorable % Unfavorable +22 +14 + +67 +8 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8 81 95 95 88 12 2 3 6 1 67-1 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 1
Army and PMUs get most of the credit for liberation Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS? Army Hashd al-shaabi Peshmerga International forces Haider al-abadi Religious leaders The central government Tribal leaders Political leaders 15 13 1 8 7 2 2 63 76 4 6 8 Page 11
Credit for liberation, by region Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS? Baghdad South West Kurdistan Army Hashd al-shaabi Peshmerga International forces Haider al-abadi 4 2 7 6 3 7 6 2 17 25 4 43 78 79 91 92 92 93 4 6 8 1 Page 12
Army seen to represent all Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents: All Iraqis 77 Only Shias Both Shia and Sunni 8 7 A specific political party or leader A foreign country Only Sunnis 3 2 4 6 8 Page 13
Only Kurdistan disagrees on army representing all Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents: Baghdad South West Kurdistan All Iraqis Only Shias Both Shia and Sunni A specific political party or leader 2 2 6 5 7 8 11 2 9 87 83 16 36 19 4 6 8 1 Page 14
West also now more favorable to PMUs Page 15
1 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 Hashd al-shaabi also now more favorable in West Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. Jan 16, favorable 74 19 9 6 % Favorable % Unfavorable +7-4 +2 +22 -- 1 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan 6 28 2 76 Page 16
Strong job approval, but regional tensions apparent Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Iraq's Army/Hashd al-shaabi/pershmerga is doing in the fight against ISIS? 1 8 6 4 Approve Disapprove 99 96 95 96 97 96 85 77 67 59 51 49 45 41 32 32 23 1 3 4 4 3 13 2 Baghdad South West K'stan Baghdad South West K'stan Baghdad South West K'stan Iraqi National Army Hashd al-shaabi Peshmerga Page 17
Winning the Peace: The Army and PMUs Page 18
High expectations for ISIS defeat this year Based on what you know, how long do you think it will take for Iraq to be fully liberated from ISIS? Within one year More than one year Never Sept. 15, within one year 8 +23 +1 +21 +51 +7 6 4 73 7 59 49 48 58 33 28 18 18 4 2 2 1 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 19
Most want army in liberated areas for security I am now going to read a list of different security forces in Iraq. Based on what you know, which ONE of the following should provide security for areas liberated from or currently occupied by ISIS such as Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddin? The Iraqi army 48 The Iraqi Army The Iraqi police Hashd al-shaabi 16 Mosul 7% Ninewa camp 69% Peshmerga Hashd al-shaari Ninewa Guards PKK or YPG 7 4 2 Anbar 7% Salahaddin 46% 4 6 8 1 Page
West and Kurds worry about PMU violence Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of Hashd al- Shaabi committing violence in liberated areas? Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of the Iraqi Army and Security Forces committing violence in liberated areas? Very/Somewhat Little/Not Very/Somewhat Little/Not 1 1 8 6 4 89 82 69 62 55 45 36 3 16 8 Total Baghdad South West K'stan 8 6 4 9 81 73 65 67 34 3 25 18 9 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Page 21
Most want PMU integration; Kurds/IDPs want them disbanded Now thinking specifically about Hashd al-shaabi, what do you think should be done with Hashd al-shaabi after Iraq is liberated from ISIS. Be dissolved and integrated into the Iraqi Army 4 Be given more power as a separate military force Completely disband and turn over its weapons Remain as it is but return to their home governorates Remain as it is but stay only in contested areas Remain as it is and deploy to provinces that were not contested by ISIS 7 7 5 16 23 West: % Kurdistan: 6% Ninewa camp: 51% 1 3 4 5 Page 22
1 Divisions on PMUs entering politics Do you approve or disapprove of Hashd al-shaabi becoming more involved in the political process by registering new political parties and having candidates in the next elections? 8 Approve Disapprove 96 6 4 47 47 61 54 35 36 49 48 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan 1 Page 23
1 Broad support for compulsory army, except in North Do you approve or disapprove of the Iraqi Army re-instating the policy of compulsory military service for all Iraqi men 18 years and older? Approve Disapprove Jan 15 +5 +3-3 +24-6 Approve 8 6 74 81 81 77 63 4 34 25 18 22 16 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 24
Understanding ISIS s Rise Page 25
Most blame corruption, but West and Kurds blame Maliki Which TWO of the following do you blame the most for the rise of ISIS in Iraq: Corruption 42 Sectarian tensions in Iraq 36 Treatment of Sunnis by former Prime Minister Maliki 31 Political parties Foreign governments Poor economic conditions 29 28 Top choice in West (52%) and Kurdistan (47%) Treatment of Sunnis by Iraqi Security Forces 9 1 3 4 5 Page 26
ISIS successful strategies: intimidation and persuasion Now, I am going to read you a list of potential reasons why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq over the last few years. Please tell me which ONE of these is the most important reason for why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq ISIS used threats of violence 39 ISIS offered people an attractive form of religion 23 ISIS offered people money and a better life ISIS offered protection from the central government and security forces 9 19 Kurdistan s first choice: 32% ISIS offered better services than local or central government 5 1 3 4 Page 27
Religion behind why some joined ISIS Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS? Religious beliefs 48 Forced to join 36 Poor government performance Poor economic situations 28 3 Injustice from the government 24 Treatment by other sects Pressure from family and friends 12 11 1 3 4 5 Page 28
Why some joined ISIS, by region Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS? Baghdad South West Kurdistan Religious beliefs Forced to join Poor government performance Poor economic situations Injustice from the government 14 17 21 23 25 35 26 33 23 3 33 39 37 41 44 46 52 51 56 4 6 Page 29
The fight against ISIS has helped to unify Iraq The fight against ISIS has helped unify the people of Iraq. The fight against ISIS has further divided the people of Iraq. 1 8 6 4 78 87 85 86 56 31 6 7 14 11 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 3
Majority concerned about ISIS s return Would you say you are very concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups reemerging in Iraq, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging to Iraq? 1 Very/Somewhat Little/Not 8 91 6 4 58 4 74 44 55 49 5 25 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan 6 Page 31
Ninewa after ISIS Page 32
Ninewa camp, Mosul concerns show stark contrast Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address: Security High prices Corruption Health care services Internally displaced Iraqis Basic services like electricity and water Jobs and unemployment Sectarianism Infrastructure, like roads and bridges Education and schools Mosul Ninewa Camp 28 76 7 27 22 23 11 22 5 22 19 12 52 9 7 6 14 3 32 2 4 6 8 Page 33
Support for military governor in Mosul Thinking specifically about Ninewa. Which of the following do you think should govern Ninewa until it has been fully liberated and made more stable: A military governor appointed by the prime minister 46 Mosul: 59% A civilian governor elected by the provincial council 21 Kurdistan: 55% A civilian governor appointed by the prime minister The currently elected governor 9 18 In Ninewa camp: plurality do not choose any option 4 6 8 Page 34
Who would bring stability to Ninewa? Mosul & Ninewa camp Please take a look at the names on this list. Based on what you know, which of the following individuals would do the best job bringing stability to Ninewa? Counterterrorism Commander Abdul Wahhab al-saedi Former Minister of Defense Khalid al- Obedi 21 33 Other Governor Nofal Hammadii Lieutenant General Abdulghani al-asadi Former Governor Atheel al-nujaifi 13 1 7 6 Major General Najm al-juburi 4 1 3 4 Page 35
Outside of Kurdistan, people want Ninewa to stay as is Once Ninewa is liberated which of the following do you think should happen to the governorate: Kurdistan Remain as it currently is 75 24 Be divided along ethnic and sectarian lines into different provinces 7 31 Join the KRG Becomes its own semi-autonomous region like KRG Link up with other Sunni provinces to form a larger semi-autonomous region 6 5 4 21 9 9 4 6 8 1 Page 36
Abadi image rebounds Page 37
Majority approve of Abadi s job again Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-abadi is doing as prime minister? 1 Approve Disapprove 8 6 75 65 63 59 4 19 29 33 38 Jan-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Page 38
Abadi s job approval jumps most in West Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-abadi is doing as prime minister? 1 8 6 4 Baghdad South West Kurdistan 93 85 % that approve 85 83 68 52 48 33 78 64 57 28 24 16 15 18 Jan-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Page 39
1 8 Favorability of leaders Non-Kurdistan Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ Jan 16-2 +18 +25 +16 +7-3 +1 +4-3 6 4 66 55 52 39 21 18 16 6 5 6 - -4-6 -8 23 26 3 37 69 69 66 84 88 63-1 Ameri Sadr Abadi Obeidi Maliki Allawi Hakim Jabouri Nujaifi Khanjar Page 4
Majority want to continue in Abadi s direction I want to continue in the direction Haider al-abadi is taking Iraq. I want to go in a very different direction than Haider al-abadi is taking Iraq. 1 Jan 16 +23 - +8-8 +16-16 +55-45 +4 8 6 4 74 77 53 55 51 33 28 31 17 18 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 41
Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq Page 42
Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq 1. Inclusive institutions need to deliver on citizens high expectations for the future. 2. Prosecution of ISIS members and provision of compensation and psychological support for victims are key priorities. 3. Leaders need to develop a strong vision for the future fighting corruption, creating jobs, and achieving long-term reconciliation. Page 43
Iraqis split on whether country is unified Iraq is mostly a unified country Iraq is mostly a divided country. Jan 15 unified 1 +3 +11-26 +36 +3 8 6 4 81 57 45 48 47 45 49 45 38 15 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 44
Belief that parties need to reconcile, not people Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that Iraq will see greater cooperation between the political parties in the near future? 1 Very/Somewhat Little/Not Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that the different sects and ethnicities living in previously occupied ISIS areas will improve relations among themselves? 1 Very/Somewhat Little/Not 8 8 6 4 37 59 3 7 38 54 48 5 19 76 6 4 61 32 74 22 63 7 27 28 17 7 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 45
Removing quotas, PMU integration key to reconciliation Now, I am going to read you a list of ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve reconciliation in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. Very effective Somewhat effective Ending sectarian quotas for government positions and jobs 42 66 Integrating the Popular Mobilization Units into the Iraqi Army Holding a national dialogue on reconciliation that includes politicians, religious/tribal leaders, CSOs Reducing influence of other countries 33 32 36 72 72 72 More cooperation among the political parties 19 65 Decentralizing power to local governments so that they rely less on the central government 14 57 4 6 8 Page 46
Jobs and anti-corruption best way to stop ISIS s return Now I am going to read you a list of things that some people think are important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge in Iraq. For each one please tell me if you think that thing is very important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge Very important Somewhat important Creating more jobs and opportunities for youth Fighting corruption Creating tougher security measures to prevent sleeper cells in liberated areas Revising the curriculum in schools to emphasize diversity and coexistence De-radicalizing imams in mosques Creating a national program to de-radicalize youth living under ISIS Launching national dialogue to bring all sects together, decide the future of Iraq Making all armed groups illegal other than the Iraqi Army, police, and Peshmerga Holding referendums to determine status of disputed territories Creating cross-sectarian coalitions between political parties Giving more power to Prime Minister Abadi Creating a new cross-sectarian political party 3 28 25 23 8 71 7 61 58 56 47 42 64 63 54 5 97 94 96 91 89 92 87 77 4 6 8 1 Page 47
Iraqis want prosecution for ISIS members Which ONE of the following do you think should be done to those who committed violent acts on behalf of ISIS? Prosecute all accused ISIS detainees 76 Offer amnesty to individuals not found guilty of serious crimes such as murder, rape, or mutilation 8 Require those found guilty to provide financial compensation to victims 8 Grant amnesty to those who come forward and admit their wrongdoings 3 4 6 8 Page 48
Special courts preferred for prosecution of ISIS members Which ONE of the following would be most effective overseeing the process of prosecuting ISIS members and helping victims of their crimes? Military tribunals 38 B dad 59% A special ISIS-related court 26 Kurdistan: 43% Local justice panels The United Nations and international community The federal court 8 9 9 Tribes 6 1 3 4 5 Page 49
Helping ISIS s victims When thinking about the victims of ISIS, which TWO of the following do you think should be done to help these victims? Financial compensation 73 Psychological support Establish a victims' support organization Recognizing the Yezidi genocide Assist sexual violence victims reintegrate into their communities A monument to those who died fighting ISIS Record and make public the stories of all ISIS victims Protect legal rights of children born as a result of sexual violence 17 11 8 8 8 34 32 Kurdistan 52% 4 6 8 Page 5
Differing views on who should distribute compensation Please tell me which ONE of these you MOST trust to distribute compensation to those most harmed by ISIS. The central government 34 The United Nations 29 West 44% Kurdistan 36% Provincial councils 13 Religious leaders and mosques 11 South 23% Tribal leaders 4 1 3 4 5 Page 51
1 High expectations for government compensation In your opinion, do you think the central government should be required to compensate people who lost property or were injured by ISIS, with the compensation coming from the national budget, even if this means less revenue for salaries and development projects? Yes No 8 84 87 81 94 6 65 4 12 13 16 6 14 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 52
Kurdistan Page 53
Mood rebounds a bit in Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? 1 8 6 85 Right direction Wrong direction 72 7478 74 65 68 63 63 56 49 55 4 9 43 43 3 33 29 28 21 22 23 15 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Page 54
6 4 Barzani approval down; split on another term Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Massoud Barzani serving another term as President of Kurdistan 49 46 Approve 51 49 39 Disapprove 43 6 4 Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing as President of Kurdistan? Δ Jan 16 Total -3 +5 43 52 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Approve Disapprove Page 55
Kurdish referendum result a certainty Kurdistan Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Kurdistan should become an independent country. 1 8 6 65 86 Kurdistan should remain an autonomous region of Iraq. 78 8 96 4 6 15 2 9 Feb-1 Aug-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Page 56
Miscellaneous Page 57
Internet access Do you have regular access to the internet? Do you have a mobile phone with internet access? Yes No Yes No 1 1 8 6 4 64 34 81 19 58 41 65 33 55 41 8 6 4 67 33 82 18 57 43 64 36 73 27 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 58