A SWOT ANALYSIS for the CSP FOR THE EVANGELICAL METHODIST CHURCH USA

A SWOT ANALYSIS for the CSP FOR THE EVANGELICAL METHODIST CHURCH USA 2006-2008 PREFACE The 28 th General Conference approved the report of the General Board of Evangelism which included strategies for denominational restructuring and future strategic planning for the denomination to become a Missional multiplication movement. Their report is included in the Appendices. The General Conference also approved the study and implementation of realignment of district conference boundaries by the General Council. This Comprehensive Strategic Plan (CSP) fulfills the directive of the July 2006 General Conference. 1

NOTE: This process was approved by the 28 th General Conference, July 2006 (circle at the far left). The preparation for the birth of this CSP has seen a 12 month process. This concept of organizational changes has been shared in written form and discussed at two different sessions of each Annual District Conference for approximately six years. INTRODUCTION of the SWOT ANALYSIS Lyle Schaller, in his book, A Mainline Turnaround, observed, The Twin Towers of the World Trade Center fell on September 11, 2001 because they were subjected to conditions they were never equipped to bear. (They) were designed to withstand the impact of a medium-sized aircraft carrying only a modest load of fuel and traveling at a speed of perhaps 350 miles per hour (p. 15). The same challenges face the EMC and our sister denominations. We have not been designed to function in the challenges of the 21 st Century. The challenge is to be structured to facilitate a Missional multiplication movement. Missional is defined as going out, not simply inviting people into the church. A truly missional focus requires a system that embraces change, endorses flexibility in methods and acceptance of ministry stylistic differences. The highest priority is on contextual church planting available in all ethnic contexts and a local church community 2

based ministry. Change for a Missional purpose, not change for change sake. We must be willing to adjust in order to minister in the changing face of our North America mission field. This will make us look at the church more organically than organizationally. We must design our denomination to more easily embrace change. We must dispel any fears that adjusting to a changing culture is the same as adapting to that culture and losing theological distinctive and biblical moorings. What are the changes we can make to become a Missional movement? To do nothing is not an option. We are proposing to streamline the denomination and empower the local church. The plan is to reduce the organizational structure to a more efficient model. Our Vision: The promotion of scriptural holiness as a positive message and lifestyle for our local churches and their communities with worldwide church multiplication Missional priorities. Our Purposes: To provide a climate in which a movement of church multiplication emerges for the entire denomination consistent in each conference. Elimination of present growth inhibitors by planting conferences with a fresh DNA infusion of vision, purpose, and multiplication. Constructing the models for church multiplication with flexibility for the emerging ethnic diversity and regional cultures across the USA. Equipping the pastors and lay people for ministry and growth in their communities. ENVIRONMENTAL STUDY PREFACE Auditing Standards/Nonprofit/Politics The auditing standards for nonprofits are increasingly changing requiring competency of the bookkeeper and additional risk and controls standards. In the context of the war on terror the not-for-profit status may become a renewal status requiring stringent independent auditing standards for renewal. Following Enron, Congress passed Sarbanes Oxley legislation. These regulations are now being applied to not-for-profit organizations. Tax exemption for churches and nonprofits may be challenged. Ethnic Changes in North America The census bureau estimates by 2014 people of color will comprise 50 percent of ages 1-18. The nation s minority population now tops 100 million according to the US Census Bureau estimate released May 17, 2007. That s one in three U.S. residents. Hispanics remain the largest minority group, at 44.3 million, and accounted for almost half the nation s total growth of 2.9 million from July 1, 2005 to July 1, 2006. Non-Hispanic blacks group grew 1.1 percent to 36.7 million in 2006 from 2005. As Hispanics settle in areas where whites are aging and fewer are being born, they re transforming classrooms, workplaces and entire communities. The non-hispanic white school-age population grew 4% since 2000, while the number of Hispanic school-age kids surged 21%. The white under-15 population declined in all but nine states since 2000. 3

The white population has shrunk in 16 states this decade, including California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. There are 2.5 million more non-hispanic Asians since 2000, a 24.4% increase to 12.9 million. The ethnic churches of the EMC are: Filipino in California, West African in North Carolina, and Hispanic churches in Idaho, North Carolina, Arizona, and Texas. Technology The use of new technologies such as Pod casting and other new delivery tools of information are stretching the technology of local church ministry. A web presence is becoming the norm for people seeking information about the denomination and local churches. Local churches continue to make increasing use of the internet and email for weekly information services. Denominational communications are increasingly dependent upon the internet. Increasingly, people will expect access to everyone anywhere anytime. This includes communications with pastoral staff and church ministries. Economics We are currently experiencing historic increases in the price of oil. The global economy is more integrated than ever, which means changes in one place will ripple quickly around the globe. Only 8 percent of 71 million households have incomes over $100,000. The cities with the greatest job growth are Las Vegas, Orlando, and West Palm Beach. Health care will take an increasing share of the GNP. Societal and Cultural Changes The changing definition of the family such as children living with grandparents, same gender couples, unmarried co-habitation, will impact the work place and church ministries. The 55 and older group (Baby Boomers) is re-emerging and re-inventing itself.. None of them think they re old or are ever going to be old (USA Today, 3.9.07). Previous definitions of Senior Adult will be inadequate for the 21 st century. Ministries will need to be more youth oriented than traditional senior adult ministries. Persons over 55 are not transient. Retirees are no longer moving to Arizona or Florida. Only 5% of people over 55 move in any given year, and of those, half stay in the same county and three-fourths in the same state (USA Today, 3.9.07). Persons over 55 are working past the typical retirement age. Most of their life has been one of quality. They will not settle for a below average ministry for those 55-plus. Ministry with excellence must be the norm. Active retirement communities for 55 and older are a new phenomena and on a fast track. It is estimated that Homebuilders will start construction on 145,000 homes in 55-plus communities this year (USA Today, 3.9.07) High School graduates will peak in 2009 at 3.2 million young people. Today there are 33 million teenagers with only 4% projected to be evangelical believers. Compare this to 35% evangelical adults in the present Baby Boomer generation. This is a 31% decrease. Ninety per cent of all people who come to Christ do so before the age of twenty. 4

SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGTHS Commitment to the Scriptures as divinely inspired, inerrant, and the rule of faith and practice. A strong biblical heritage for orthodoxy. Commitment to the teaching and preaching of entire sanctification as a positive experience where the heart is cleansed from self-centeredness. Commitment to global evangelization from the founding of the denomination of 1946. EMC personnel are represented in 27 countries around the world. A stewardship of the scriptural vision of John Wesley and Francis Asbury s for Methodists in America. A positive atmosphere of growth with clearly articulated Missional priorities. A Cabinet of Superintendents with the ministry experience, commitment to kingdom growth, and an emerging team concept. An encouragement for the growth in the last eight years has been a functioning office of the General Superintendent and a commitment by the Cabinet of Superintendents to act and function as a team. A modest, but growing EMC endowment. WEAKNESSES A declining denomination as we entered the 21 st century had produced a negative self image. The denomination experienced a decline of -37.6% in membership; -45.8% in worship attendance; -40.7% in conversions; -25.2% in churches from 1976-1999. In 1976 there were 140 congregations with 10,502 members. The composition was 59 churches with less than 50 members; 41 churches with 50 to 100 members; 12 with 100 to 125 members; 12 churches with 125 to 150 members. The decline is greater if the starting point is 1968 with 151 churches. (See graph, Appendix 5) Superintendents and pastors lacking expertise and training in goal setting, development of vision and mission statements, and skills in strategic planning. Boards of Ministerial Relations using differing standards for pastoral candidacy for entrance into the ministry. Independent minded pastors, lacking commitment to the denomination and Discipline, encouraging local churches to withdraw from their conference. Lack of understanding of the connectional aspect of the denominational structure. This is seen in the fear of centralization at the general level. An unwillingness to surrender to what has been our historical administrative structure for what is best for the Kingdom through the EMC. An urgent question facing the EMC in these days, and has been for several years is, what to do with middle management ministry. Missional Priorities and denominational programs such as Pastor s continuing education and credentialing the Pastors School set by the General Conference are sometimes non-existent in a district. Instead of the ability to bring a unified vision through a one conference concept, every district superintendent created individual visions for their conference. The result was a silo management structure that isolated superintendents and districts into separate entities. The connectional aspect of the church was minimized. There was no unified vision or Missional priorities. 5

OPPORTUNITIES A Wesleyan coalition of networking holiness denominations in resources and personnel. Hamblen-Bruner endowment annual interest income has created financial stability and a stream of funding for USA church multiplication and global evangelism in Mexico and Myanmar. The opportunity to proclaim and live out the scriptural message of holiness in our local churches at a time when interest in holy living is increasing. Marketing the positive congregation connectional structure of the denomination that is appealing to American Christians, particularly the security of doctrinal soundness without drifting and the local church property held in trust by the congregation trustees. Opportunities through the web and technology to market the EMC. A positive atmosphere of growth. From 1999 to 2005 the denomination has experienced movement from decline to growth with +9.3% membership growths; worship +14.8%; conversions +16.5%; churches +1.0%. The denomination is poised to focus on adding new churches. The focus for improving the health of the local church has been modestly successful as reflected in the percentages. A further encouragement for growth is the instruction in and the proper operation of the congregational and connectional (par. 61) system of church government. What have we learned? Answer: Local churches and pastors began to understand the Discipline guidelines and operate with a unified procedure. This has eliminated some conflicts and growth inhibitors. The resolve and ability to deliver the greatest ministry impact of support for our local churches and our pastors. THREATS Retreating from changing of the present organizational model/structure and not maintaining the growth patterns since 1999. This could result in a plateau by 2010. A structure that was created after 30 years of history in 1976 and now 30+ years later requires something different. The present structure served the EMC to the end of the last century, a new structure is necessary for this century. A sense of being alone for pastors and churches who receive very limited contact and fellowship from the superintendents, fellow pastors, and other local churches. This is especially true of churches which are on the fringe areas of a district conference and have more contact with the district conference membership in the adjacent conference. This is due to geography and cultural affinity, e.g. being more mid-western than eastern or southern. The proposed legislation of government review and more stringent requirements for renewal of nonprofit status in the near future will most likely include financial auditing. Such nationally mandated auditing standards for nonprofit organizations are forcing significant changes by the General Board of Finance for all conference levels to meet the same standards. A key requirement is a person with competency in accounting practices to meet the auditing standards. This adjustment will require organizational changes. The advice from the auditors is immediate actions toward full compliance for all the standards. In 1976 only a portion of the restructure plan was adopted, the change from two annual conferences to seven districts. Instead of adopting a recommended Board of Superintendents, the office of General Superintendent was weakened, diluted, 6

and redefined. What has been the effect of this structure? Solo management styles among the superintendents in each district. Instead of a denomination, an association mindset made inroads so we became seven separate denominations which we labeled as districts. General Council members becoming sectarian in their leadership that focuses on the district in which they serve above the needs and vision for the entire denomination. Loss of theological identification by society. Theology is becoming less important to church people. The young adult generations, baby busters and Mosaics (multi-cultural), are leaders in pursuit of new models of faith and expression. Within the next five years they will boldly introduce a flood of unique expressions of faith that will cause heightened tensions with the older generations of believers. (The Barna Group) The percent of adults who say they are Christian is dropping about one percent per year. (The Barna Group) Churches across America have de-emphasized Bible teaching. (The Barna Group) Increasingly American Christians are biblically illiterate. The younger a person is, the less they understand about the Christian faith. (The Barna Group) 7