Why Did Islamist Parties Win, and What Does It Mean? Danish Institute for International Studies October 30 2012 Ellen Lust Gamal Soltan Jakob Wichmann
The Islamist won the elections in Egypt and Tunisia Egyptian Election Tunisian Election Nour Party other Ennahda 25% The Initiative 2% 45% PDM 7% 41% 8% Wafd Party ETTAKATOL 9% Freedom and Justice Party 15% Other 7% Egyptian Bloc Popular Petition 12% 13% CPR 2
Why Islamists Won? Three Potential Explanations 1. Islam Resonates with Arab, Muslim Voters 2. Islamist Parties provide Social Welfare Services in the Absence of the State 3. Islamist Parties were Better Organized During the Campaign 3
Although values appear stable over past year: Preferences for Islamic, democratic and strong state model Islamic state 42% 38% 46% 47% 39% 38% Democratic- civil state 51% 53% 44% 46% 55% 56% Strong state 7% 9% 10% 8% 6% 6% August September October November May 2012 June 2012 Source: Parliamentary survey 1,2,3 4,5 & 6. Presidential survey 1, 2 4
In stark contrast, support for Islamist parties grew in the lead-up to the election 1 2 Support for Islamist Parties Citizens view of the Nour Party 55 50 52 FJP 50 45 40 47 44 Favorable 45 40 35 30 25 32 34 42 23 Al Nour Party 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 14 25 26 31 8 17 16 Favorable minus unfavorable 20 15 10 5 0 10 August 7 September 7 October 10 November Early December 19 Late December -5-10 -15-20 -25-30 -35-40 -25-39 August -14-39 September -8-34 October -23 November -30 Early December -29 Late December Unfavorable Source: Parliamentary survey 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6. 5
Support for Islamist parties stronger among those in need 1 2 3 Islamists more likely to be poor Less Educated More Rural Car owner 14% 9% Illiterate/ barely read Below High School 22% 17% 29% 19% Urban 48% 36% No 86% 91% High and Upper Highschool 44% 39% Rural 52% 64% College 17% 13% Non-islamic party voter Islamic party voter Non-islamic party voter Islamic party voter Non-islamic party voter Islamic party voter Source: Parliamentary survey 4, 5 & 6. 6
Islamist parties have superior organizational resources 1 2 3 More campaign volunteers More active members More full time staff Total number of campaign volunteers Total number of active members Type of staff in parties 25% 63% Part-time 25.000 100.000 75% 11.900 38% Full time 24.500 Islamic parties Non-Islamic parties Islamic parties Non-Islamic parties Islamic parties Non-Islamic parties Source: Interview with 7 political parties in Egypt, August September 2012 7
Islamist Parties Mobilized both New and Old Voters Split of Old and New Voters Old and New Voter Choices 100% Non voters Old voters 31% 19% Islamist parties 80% 81% 50% New entrants Non-islamist parties 20% 19% Old voters New entrants Source: Presidential survey 1 8
What Does it Mean? Implications of Islamists Victory Immediate Impact: Focus on Women Long-Term Implications: The Transition Process 9
Not An Outcome Driven by Men Women vote as much for Islamists as men 100% Islamist 72% 72% Non-Islamist 28% 28% Male Female Source: Parliamentary survey 4, Parliamentary survey 5, Parliamentary survey 6 10
Men and Women have similar concerns 1.649 1.602 100% Security and stability 39% 38% Inflation 15% 26% Unemployment 25% 18% poverty and income reduction Absence of trust in authority figures Other 4% 4% 12% 7% 3% 8% Male Source: Parliamentary survey 4, Parliamentary survey 5, Parliamentary survey 6 Female 11
Men and women have similar views Agreement on the statement: "Men have priority over women in employment" 100% Strongly agree 47% 49% Agree 27% 24% Somwhat agree Disagree 5% 5% 14% 14% Completely disagree 8% 8% Source: Parliamentary survey 3 Male Female 12
Long-Term Implications for Transitional Politics? Secularists domestic and abroad tend to view Islamist takeover reflecting deep-seated, values Fear of spreading message and power prompts support for illiberal and anti-democratic policies However, Illiberal policies have potential for inducing preference falsification that strengthens Islamist parties 13
Moving Forward: Recognize Fluidity and Keep the Playing Field Open Need to resist supporting efforts to limit liberal freedoms, discourse International actors need to avoid temptation to shore up secularists vs. Islamists Counter-productive Not necessarily more liberal, democratic outcomes Respond to the needs of the center Need to emphasize iterative processes and seek ways to avoid entrenchment of early winners Roles of local level elections Emphasis on media freedoms, freedom of association, political parties laws, etc. 14
The transitional process has made participation in elections more attractive to the youth, women and urbanized voters 1 New entrants are younger 2 New entrants are more likely to be female 3 New entrants are more urbanized 60+ 11% 10% 51-60 16% 11% 18% Male 61% 49% Urban 33% 49% 41-50 21% 20% 31-40 21% Rural 67% 18-30 30% 41% Female 39% 51% 51% Old voters New entrants Old voters New entrants Old voters New entrants Source: Presidential survey 1 15