Special Report Faith Formation 2020: Envisioning the Future 3 Part One. A Way to Think about the Future of Faith: Creating Scenarios for Faith Formation 2010-2020 6 Part Two. Thirteen Trends & Forces Affecting the Future of Faith Formation in a Changing Church and World 13 Part Three. Envisioning the Future: Four Scenarios for the Future of Faith Formation 2010-2020 35 Part Four. Descriptions of the Thirteen Trends & Forces Affecting the Future of Faith Formation in a Changing Church and World Copyright 2009 LifelongFaith Associates, LLC. ISSN #1939-5299. No articles may be reprinted without permission.
Faith Formation 2020 Lifelong Faith Lifelong Faith is published quarterly by LifelongFaith Associates, LLC. ISSN #1939-5299 Managing Editor John Roberto jroberto@lifelongfaith.com Design Brian Parda, Alias Creative LifelongFaith Associates 40 Brighton Road Naugatuck, CT 06770 203-729-2953 www.lifelongfaith.com Individual Subscriptions One year (4 issues) $36 Two years (8 issues) $64 (Canadian residents add $12; other countries add $20.) Group Subscriptions 2-5: $32 per subscription 6-9: $28 per subscription 10+: $26 per subscription Subscribe by mail or online at www.lifelongfaith.com. Be sure to visit www.lifelongfaith.com for resources and information about lifelong faith formation and the work of LifelongFaith Associates. Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 2 From the Editor
Part One Creating Scenarios for the Future of Faith Formation in a Changing Church and World Introduction: Thinking about the Future Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 3 The Scenario Planning Process
Scenario Planning Process Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 4
Resources on Scenario Planning Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 5
Part Two Thirteen Trends and Forces Affecting the Future of Faith Formation in a Changing Church and World Outside-In Thinking Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 6 Trend 1. Declining Participation in Christian Churches
Trend 2. Growth in No Religious Affiliation Trend 3. Becoming More Spiritual and Less Religious Trend 4. Influence of Individualism on Christian Identity and Community Life Trend 5. Increasing Social, Cultural, and Religious Diversity in the U.S. Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 7
Trend 6. Growing Influence of Hispanic/Latino Religious Faith Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 8 Trend 7. Identifying a New Stage of Life: Emerging Adulthood Trend 8. The Rise of a Distinctive Post- Boomer Faith and Spirituality
Religious Tinkering (Robert Wuthnow) Expressive Communalism (Richard Flory and Donald E. Miller) Four Emerging Forms of the Post-Boomer Spiritual Quest: Innovators, Appropriators, Resisters, Reclaimers (Richard Flory and Donald E. Miller) Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 9
Trend 9. Changing Structures and Patterns of Family Life in the United States Delaying Marriage. Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 10 Having Fewer Children and Later in Life. Decreasing Number of Children in Two-Parent Households. Increasing Number of Unmarried Couples Living Together. Increasing Time Caring for Children.
Trend 10. Rediscovering the Impact of Parents and Families on Faith Practice Parental Influence. Embedded Family Religious Practices. Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 11 Trend 11. Living in a Digital World Internet Usage Continues to Increase. Wireless and Mobile Usage Continues to Increase. Increase in Social Networking
Increase in Children (2-11) Online. Growing Embrace of Technology by Churches. Trend 12. Educating in New Ways Trend 13. Increasing Numbers of Adults 65 and Older Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 12
Part Three Envisioning the Future: Four Scenarios for the Future of Faith Formation in 2020 (Version 1.0) Two Critical Uncertainties for Faith Formation 2010-2020 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 13
Scenario Matrix for Faith Formation 2020 (Version 1.0) Dominant Cultural Attitude toward Organized Religion Scenario #4. Participating in Church Activities, but Faith and the Spiritual Life Are Not Important Receptive to Organized Religion Scenario #1. Vibrant Faith and Active Engagement in the Church Community People s Hunger for God and the Spiritual Life Low Scenario #3. Unaffiliated and Uninterested Resistant to Organized Religion High Scenario #2. Spiritual, but Not Religious Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 14
Scenario #1. Vibrant Faith and Active Engagement in the Church Community Overview of Scenario #1 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 15 Key Features of Faith Formation in 2020 for Scenario #1
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Scenario #2. Spiritual, but Not Religious Overview of Scenario #2 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 24
Key Features of Faith Formation in 2020 for Scenario #2 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 25
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Features from Scenario 1 Features from Scenario 4 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 28
Scenario #3. Unaffiliated and Uninterested Key Features of Faith Formation in 2020 for Scenario #3 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 29
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Scenario #4. Participating in Church Activities, but Faith and the Spiritual Life Are Not Significant Overview of Scenario #4 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 31 Key Features of Faith Formation in 2020 for Scenario #4
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Part Four Descriptions of the Thirteen Trends and Forces Influencing the Future of Faith Formation in a Changing Church and World Trend 1. Declining Participation in Christian Churches What if Present Trends Continue: The World of 2020 Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 35
A Case Study Research Note Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 36 Trend 2. Changing Patterns of Religious Identification and Affiliation in the U.S. The Rise in No Religious Affiliation
Changing Religious Affiliation Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 37 Trend 3. Becoming More Spiritual, Less Religious
Trend 4. Influence of Individualism on Christian Identity and Community Life 1. Excessive Religious Individualism Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 38
2. The Rise of a Culture of Therapeutic Individualism Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 39
Instrumentalist View of Religious Faith Trend 5. Increasing Social, Cultural, and Religious Diversity in the United States Ethnic Diversity Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 40
Religious Diversity Major Religious Traditions in the U.S. 2008 (Pew Research) Religious Affiliation of Young Generations (Pew Research) Congregations and Diversity Trend 6. Growing Influence of Hispanic/ Latino Religious Faith on U.S. Christianity Growing Numbers Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 41
Among Latinos, differences in religious identification coincide with important differences in demographic characteristics, beginning with nativity. In the Hispanic foreign-born population, for example, 74% of adults identify as Catholic, compared with 58% of the native born. Hence, the demographic composition of religious congregations also differs. While about two-thirds (68%) of Hispanic Catholics are foreign born, just a bit more than half (55%) of Latino evangelicals are immigrants. Given the differences in nativity, it is not surprising that Latino Catholics are less likely to speak English and tend to be less educated and poorer than Hispanics of other religious traditions. Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 42 Distinctive Form of Christianity
Trend 7. Identifying a New Stage of Life: Emerging Adulthood Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 43
Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 44 Trend 8. The Rise of a Distinctive Post-Boomer Faith & Spirituality 1. A Generation of Tinkerers
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2. Four Emerging Forms of the Post- Boomer Spiritual Quest: Innovators, Appropriators, Resisters, and Reclaimers Innovators Appropriators Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 46
Resisters Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 47 Reclaimers
3. A New Post-Boomer Spirituality: Expressive Communalism Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 48 Trend 9. Changing Patterns of Family Life in the United States 1. Delaying Marriage
2. Having Fewer Children and Later in Life 3. Decreasing Number of Children in Two-Parent Households 4. Increasing Number of Unmarried Couples Living Together 5. Increasing Time Caring for Children: Changing Patterns of Family Time Use Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 49
Keeping Childcare Time High Reducing Other Activities Feeling Pressure Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 50
Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 51 Trend 10. Rediscovering the Impact of Parents and Families on Faith Practice 1. Parental Influence
2. Embedded Family Religious Practices Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 52
4. Shifts Congregations Make When Adopting a Family Perspective Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 53
Trend 11. Living in a Digital World 1. Continuing Rise in Internet Usage Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 54
Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 55 2. Increase in Wireless Internet Use
Mobile Devices 3. Increase in Social Networking Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 56
4. Growing Up Online: Growth Rate of Children Online Outpaces Overall Internet Population Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 57 5. Growing Embrace of Technology by Churches
Trend 12. Educating in New Ways Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 58
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Trend 13. Increasing Number of Adults 65 and Older A Demographic Revolution, A New Stage of Life Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 60
My Time: Making the Most of the Rest of Your Life Summer 2009 Lifelong Faith 61