WWL 2017: Compilation 1 All short versions of country persecution dynamics Last updated: 31 January 2017 Open Doors International / World Watch Research Unit 2 February 2017 research@od.org www.opendoorsanalytical.org
WWL 2017: Short version of all 50 country persecution dynamics Edition: 2017-01-10 / fully updated 2017-01-31 Contents North Korea Rank 1... 3 Somalia Rank 2... 4 Afghanistan Rank 3... 6 Pakistan Rank 4... 7 Sudan Rank 5... 8 Syria Rank 6... 10 Iraq Rank 7... 11 Iran Rank 8... 12 Yemen Rank 9... 15 Eritrea Rank 10... 18 Libya Rank 11... 20 Nigeria Rank 12... 21 Maldives Rank 13... 23 Saudi Arabia Rank 14... 21 India Rank 15... 27 Uzbekistan Rank 16... 29 Vietnam Rank 17... 32 Kenya Rank 18... 34 Turkmenistan Rank 19... 36 Qatar Rank 20... 37 Egypt Rank 21... 38 Ethiopia Rank 22... 40 Palestinian Territories Rank 23... 42 Laos Rank 24... 44 Brunei Rank 25... 45 Bangladesh Rank 26... 47 Jordan Rank 27... 49 Myanmar Rank 28... 50 1
Tunisia Rank 29... 51 Bhutan Rank 30... 52 Malaysia Rank 31... 54 Mali Rank 32... 55 Tanzania Rank 33... 57 Central African Republic (CAR) Rank 34... 59 Tajikistan Rank 35... 60 Algeria Rank 36... 62 Turkey Rank 37... 64 Kuwait Rank 38... 66 China Rank 39... 68 Djibouti Rank 40... 70 Mexico Rank 41... 71 Comoros Rank 42... 73 Kazakhstan Rank 43... 74 United Arab Emirates (UAE) Rank 44... 75 Sri Lanka Rank 45... 76 Indonesia Rank 46... 77 Mauritania Rank 47... 79 Bahrain Rank 48... 80 Oman Rank 49... 81 Colombia Rank 50... 82 2
North Korea Rank 1 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 92 / Position: 1 WWL 2016: Points: 92 / Position: 1 2. Main persecution engines: The main persecution engine affecting Christians in North Korea is Communist and post- Communist oppression blended with Dictatorial paranoia. North Korea remains at the top of the World Watch List. Hopes that Kim Jong Un would be more open for reforms have faltered and he is evidently pursuing a policy of unpredictable purges to consolidate his power. Christianity continues to be viewed as Western and hostile. Christians try to hide their faith to avoid being arrested and sent to labor camps. Most parents even refrain from introducing their children to the Christian faith out of fear that something could slip their tongue should anyone ask about Christian activities. There are only two of the four WWL categories of Christianity existing in North Korea: A small percentage of the historical Christian communities (in existence prior to the Korean War) have been able to hide their faith and form an underground church. There are also communities of converts to Christianity from a Communist or a Kim Il Sung/Kim Jong Ilbackground. Christians from both categories risk arrest, labor camp and death. The overall pressure on Christians remains at virtually the same extreme level as in WWL 2016. Citizens are expected to give praise to the leading Kim family, and to no-one else, leaving no room for any deviation. All spheres of life show extreme pressure levels, with maximum scores in the private, church, and national spheres of life. While the pressure on the church and national spheres is typical for Communist countries (which in theory still applies to North Korea), the pressure on the remaining spheres shows that no religion is tolerated in this system of totalitarian Dictatorial paranoia. The violence level is scored at a very high level. Reports of violent incidents can rarely be published due to security reasons. More than twenty Christians were killed and more than one hundred were arrested in the WWL 2017 reporting period. 6. Future outlook: The regime seems to isolate itself deliberately (as seen in its series of rocket and nuclear tests), but its biggest challenge is its relationship with China. The nation still depends heavily on China economically and cannot afford to be abandoned by it. China, although increasingly unhappy with the regime s behavior, still has reasons to keep North Korea afloat, one reason being a potential influx of refugees. Even if 2017 may bring some changes, such as improvements in the economy, nothing will improve for Christians, given that they are regarded as enemies of the state. [Word count: 459] Return to Contents (page 1) 3
Somalia Rank 2 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 91 / Position: 2 WWL 2016: Points: 87 / Position: 7 2. Persecution engines: The two main persecution engines are Islamic oppression and ethnic antagonism. Organized corruption and crime has also become visible. Somalia has been on the World Watch List since 1993. Islam was already firmly established in Somalia before the arrival of Christianity. Somalia s tribal system - as an informal way of governing Somalia - is very resistant to modern government models and more robust than the formal state structure. Since the downfall of Ziad Barre in 1991, Somalia has become a safe haven for Islamic militants. MBBs in the country have been facing massive problems and their killing is very common. A mere suspicion leads to a rushed public execution. Al-Shabaab has been orchestrating similar attacks against Christians in Kenya. The only WWL category of Christianity truly existing in Somalia are the communities of converts to Christianity with a Muslim background (MBBs). The faith of these MBBs must stay hidden for them to survive. All persecution engines active in the country affect them. (Expatriate Christians are restricted to chaplaincies for soldiers - e.g. among officers of the African Union Mission, AMISOM - and workers in Mogadishu and do not exist as a separate WWL category.) Christians in Somalia experience extreme pressure in all spheres of life. Pressure is strongest in the private, national and church spheres of life which all show maximum scores. Whereas pressure resulting from Islamic oppression manifests itself in all spheres of life, the persecution engine Ethnic antagonism is most visible in the community and family spheres of life, which have lower score. The score for violence increased by more than six points and is now at a very high level. The persecution engine Organized corruption and crime together with the lack of law and order in many parts of the country has led to this increase in violence. The overall persecution situation in Somalia reveals that there is a strong desire within the society to eliminate Christianity from the country, verging towards ethnic cleansing. 6. Future outlook: Elections are expected to be held in 2017. Whatever the election results, the persecution engines Islamic oppression, Ethnic antagonism and Organized corruption and crime will still continue to operate in the country. In addition, in the near future: Al-Shabaab will continue targeting MBBs. It is unlikely that ruined churches will be reopened. If the Africa Union troops leave the country, al-shabaab will be emboldened again and might pose additional threat to Christians in the country and beyond. 4
If the elections to be held in 2017 went seriously wrong, the situation in the country could deteriorate even further. [Word count: 472] Return to Contents (page 1) 5
Afghanistan Rank 3 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 89 / Position: 3 WWL 2016: Points: 88 / Position: 4 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Afghanistan are Islamic oppression (main) and to a lesser extent Ethnic antagonism and Organized corruption and crime. Afghanistan has been a volatile region for centuries. It was ruled by Persians and gained independence as a state in 1709. The north-western part of the country is also known as Khorasan, a term which gained prominence in January 2015 when militants pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), announcing the introduction of a caliphate of Khorasan. Those militants are fighting Afghan government troops in the north-eastern part of the country and continue attacking Muslim minorities like the Shia Hazara. In a wave of attacks in July, August and October 2016, both the Taliban and the IS made displays of their power. Communities of converts to Christianity from a Muslim background (MBBs) are the only WWL category of Christianity in Afghanistan. Shops and other family businesses have been destroyed just on the mere suspicion that someone might be a convert. The overall pressure on Christians is at an extreme level and increased slightly in the WWL 2017 reporting period. Pressure is at an extreme level in all spheres of life. This pressure, resulting from Islamic oppression, is exerted mostly by families, friends and community, but also by local religious leaders. The state authorities are weak, and Islam is a welcome unifying factor, especially as society agrees that conversion away from Islam cannot be tolerated. The level of violence against Christians remains very high, just a fraction lower than in the WWL 2016 reporting period. There were several killings of MBBs after their conversion had been discovered by the wider family. In other families, Christian converts have been delivered to mental hospitals as no-one with clear senses would ever leave Islam. If Christian converts are discovered, their property is destroyed or given away to others. This can occur even upon the mere suspicion of someone having become a Christian. 6. Future outlook: The biggest challenges for Afghanistan in 2017 will be: The dire security situation; The huge influx of refugees sent back by Pakistan and Iran; The increase in opium production which is known to fund armed militant groups and foster corruption, thus fuelling the persecution engines Islamic oppression and Organized crime and corruption, which in turn affects the small and deeply hidden Christian communities. [Word count: 441] Return to Contents (page 1) 6
Pakistan Rank 4 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 88 / Position: 4 WWL 2016: Points: 87 / Position: 6 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Pakistan are Islamic oppression (main) and to a lesser extent Organized corruption and crime. The army continues to follow a policy of distinguishing between good and bad Islamic militants. While it fights the latter, it courts the former (e.g. Lashkar-e-Toiba, now Jamaat-ud-Dawah, and the Haqqani network) and uses these groups as a means of active intervention in neighboring countries such as Afghanistan and India. The army does act against insurgents adhering to Islamic State (IS), however, whose presence is reportedly growing in Pakistan. But the Taliban are still alive and able to carry out attacks, as was shown in the Easter 2016 bombing in Lahore which they explicitly claimed was aimed at Christians. Sunday gatherings for worship are still possible for Christians, but all other meetings are strongly discouraged. Of the four WWL categories of Christianity, only three exist in the country, all of which are experiencing persecution. Historical Christian communities are still able to function but have to put up with a stronger control and monitoring. Communities of converts to Christianity from a Muslim background (MBBs) suffer the brunt of persecution from both radical Islamic groups and families and neighbors. Non-traditional Protestant Christian communities are under closer scrutiny and suffer frequent attacks, especially when they are active in outreach amongst Muslims. The overall pressure on Christians remains at an extreme level and even increased slightly in the WWL 2017 reporting period. Pressure deriving from the persecution engine Islamic oppression is present in every sphere. Pressure is extreme in all spheres of life but the church sphere. While pressure in the private, family and community spheres is typical for Islamic countries, the pressure in the national sphere points to an increasingly restrictive government. The violence score is the maximum possible for the second consecutive year. Christians have suffered from numerous killings, attacks on churches, abduction of women, rape, forced marriages and evictions from homes and displacements in-country and abroad. Other religious minorities like Shiites and Ahmadis have suffered from such attacks as well. 6. Future outlook: The army and government are still trying to distinguish between good and bad Islamic militant groups, and it is the religious minorities - including Christians who will continue pay the price for this approach. The highly unjust and arbitrary blasphemy laws continue to haunt the country and its religious minorities. All hopes for changes to this law have so far been premature. It is unlikely that 2017 will be any better, Islamic oppression will continue to haunt religious minorities including Christians. [Word count: 477] Return to Contents (page 1) 7
Sudan Rank 5 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 87 / Position: 5 WWL 2016: Points: 84 / Position: 8 2. Persecution engines: Two intertwined engines are present in the country: Islamic oppression and Dictatorial paranoia. Sudan has been on the World Watch List since 1993 and was mostly within the top 20 over the years. The persecution in the country is systematic and reminiscent of a policy of ethnic cleansing. Under the authoritarian rule of al-bashir and his party, there is no rule of law in Sudan; press and media laws have been restrictive, and freedom of expression has been highly curtailed. The ethnic-cultural landscape is complicated: Arab versus Ethnic Africans, Muslim versus Christian. The secession of South Sudan in 2011 did not solve these problems. This is particularly true for Ethnic Africans, as a significant number are Christian and still living in the country. Historically, Islam is deeply embedded in Sudan s society and the government is strictly implementing the policy of one religion, one culture and one language. There have been ongoing conflicts in different parts of the country. In Sudan all WWL categories of Christianity are affected: Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians, historical Christian communities, communities of converts to Christianity (here with a Muslim background MBBs) and non-traditional Protestant Christian communities all live under serious persecution. Government security officials harass and intimidate them. Overall, the pressure on Christians in Sudan rose considerably in the WWL 2017 reporting period and is at an extreme level. Pressure is at extreme levels in all spheres of life, but highest in the church and national spheres and lowest in the private sphere. Both engines, Dictatorial paranoia and Islamic oppression, are creating very hostile environment for Christians, while Islamic oppression is mainly active in family and community spheres, dictatorial paranoia is a main problem in national and church spheres. The score for the violence is less than in WWL 2016 but remains at an extreme level. There were numerous arrests, attacks on churches and Christian buildings and killings (above all in the Nuba Mountains). The overall persecution situation for Christians has got worse since the independence of South Sudan as the government of Sudan is making progress in implementing its policy of one religion, one culture and one language. 6. Future outlook: For Christians in Sudan the future looks gloomy: Above all both engines Islamic oppression and dictatorial paranoia will remain the main engines in the country. The government of 8
Sudan will almost certainly continue arresting, harassing and expelling Christians. It will continue to be very difficult to get permission to build churches or renovate existing ones. With regard to the Nuba Christians, the government of Sudan seems intent on targeting them indiscriminately. Al-Bashir looks like he will continue taking his hardline approach in dealing with the international community. [Word count: 499] Return to Contents (page 1) 9
Syria Rank 6 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 86 / Position: 6 WWL 2016: Points: 87 / Position: 5 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Syria are Islamic oppression and Ethnic antagonism (blended with Islamic oppression). The roots of the Syrian civil war are complicated, but the religious component is primarily Sunni versus Shia (including Alawite). The Syrian opposition becoming increasingly Islamized and the civil war is becoming a form of jihad against the Syrian government. The geographical concentration of Christians in strategic areas is an important factor in their vulnerability, as is their alleged support to the government. Of the four WWL categories of Christianity, three are present in Syria and experiencing varying degrees of persecution: Historical Christian communities, communities of converts to Christianity from a Muslim background (MBBs), non-traditional Protestant Christian communities (such as Baptist, Evangelical and Pentecostal congregations). Overall, the pressure on Christians in Syria is at an extreme level and even rose slightly compared to WWL 2016. But this increase is due to adjustments based on the availability of more information. In reality pressure on Christians did not change compared to the WWL2016. Pressure in all spheres of life reached extreme levels and was strongest in the church, community, and national spheres of life. This is typical for a situation in which Islamic oppression is the main persecution engine, combined with Dictatorial paranoia. Though lower than in WWL2016, the level of violence is still extreme. Most Christians have fled areas held by Islamic militants (including IS), leading to a lower number of violent incidents. Also, many churches were already destroyed in the previous reporting period. Another factor is the difficulty to receive confirmed information from a country in the chaos of civil war. The overall situation in Syria is characterized by heavy persecution of all types of Christians in areas held by IS and Islamic militants and by considerable pressure being put on MBBs in the entire country. 6. Future outlook: With the continued support of Russia and Iran, the Syrian regime is expected to maintain its power mostly in the western part of the country. Islamic militants are likely to control much of eastern Syria. Instability is likely to stay for the next few years and this is affecting local Christians, causing them to flee. However some Christians make a deliberate choice to stay and reach out to their fellow countrymen. [Word count: 431] Return to Contents (page 1) 10
Iraq Rank 7 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 86 / Position: 7 WWL 2016: Points: 90 / Position: 2 2. Main persecution engines: The main persecution engine affecting Christians in Iraq is Islamic oppression. Ethnic antagonism (blended with Islamic oppression), Organized corruption and crime and Denominational protectionism are also present to a lesser extent. Christians have lived in Iraq for two millennia but are currently on the verge of extinction. Iraq has suffered from years of structural uncertainty, conflict and instability under a government incapable of enforcing the rule of law and providing a minimum of security. Iraq is divided in two parts, the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north and the large remaining Arab part. Sectarian divisions have further fragmented Iraqi society under the influence of Islamic militants, not least in the establishment of the Islamic State (IS) caliphate. On the other hand, there are also glimmers of hope as opportunities arise for churches to reach out to refugees. Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians have not been counted as a separate category here as these Christians do not usually function as a separate group. Historical Christian communities and non-traditional Protestant Christian communities are seriously affected by persecution, especially by radical Islamic movements, authorities and non-christian leaders. Communities of converts to Christianity (here from a Muslim background MBBs) suffer severely from persecution, especially from family but also from all the above mentioned drivers if their faith is known. The overall pressure on Christians is at an extreme level and rose slightly compared to the WWL 2016 reporting period. Extreme levels of pressure are recorded in every sphere of life. This is typical for a situation in which there are many different persecution engines acting. Pressure from Islamic oppression affects all five spheres of life especially for converts. Ethnic antagonism (blended with Islamic oppression) is most prevalent in the family and private spheres of life. Organized corruption and crime is mostly expressed in the community and national spheres of life. Denominational protectionism particularly affects the church, family and private sphere of life. The violence score is very high but dropped compared to WWL 2016 (which covered the beginning of the Islamic State caliphate). There were less violent incidents against Christians as many fled areas controlled by IS and other Islamic extremists. The overall persecution situation in Iraq is characterized by impunity, the threat of attacks by Islamic extremists and second class treatment by the authorities. 6. Future outlook: Though it may take time, IS is expected to be expelled from territory it took over. The political powers are united in the battle against IS but may be drawn into a power struggle with the Kurds who are expected to further pursue independence. Christians risk being drawn into this struggle for power. [Word count: 488] Return to Contents (page 1) 11
Iran Rank 8 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 85 / Position: 8 WWL 2016: Points: 83 / Position: 9 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Iran are Islamic oppression (main), and Dictatorial paranoia and Organized corruption and crime (both secondary). Dictatorial paranoia is blended with Islamic oppression. In the Islamic Revolution of 1979 the Shah was removed and Iran was changed into an Islamic Republic. Shia Islamic clerics took political control, today headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran s current leaders see the expansion of the influence of Shia Islam in the Middle East as a means of continuing the revolution. Christianity is considered a Western influence and threat to the Islamic identity of the Republic. Apart from Christians, the rights of other religious minorities like Jews, Baha i s and Zoroastrians, as well as Dervish and Sunni Muslims are violated as well. Communities of converts to Christianity from a Muslim background (MBBs) are the largest group and experience the most persecution. Nontraditional Protestant Christian communities who evangelize Muslims are the second most persecuted group. Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians from Asia and the West suffered from some forced church closures. Historical Christian communities made up of Armenian and Assyrian Christians are protected by law but are treated as second-class citizens Overall, the pressure on Christians is at an extreme level and rose slightly in the WWL 2017 reporting period. The pressure is at an extreme level in all spheres of life and highest in the church and national spheres. Combined with a very high score for violence, this is typical for a situation in which government officials are the main drivers of the persecution engine Dictatorial Paranoia which in the case of Iran is blended with Islamic oppression. Pressure resulting from Islamic oppression is present mostly in the private and family spheres and is exerted particularly on MBBs and Christians who minister to them, which are often from non-traditional Protestant Christian communities. Pressure in the community sphere is exerted on all types of Christianity, including Christians from Historical Christian communities. The level of violence is very high and increased in comparison to the WWL 2016 reporting period and included the arrest of approximately 193 Christians. The overall persecution situation in Iran is caused by a strict Islamic government which aims to eradicate or restrict any influence, including Christianity, that could endanger its position of power. 6. Future outlook: The nuclear deal of mid-2015 has led to a further escalation of the powerstruggle between the reformist and conservatives elements of the Iranian political spectrum. The latter are suppressing all elements considered a threat to the Islamic character of the regime: i.e. Iranians with ties to the West and religious minorities, including Christians and 12
Baha i s. This situation is not expected to change in the short run. [Word count: 500] Return to Contents (page 1) 13
14
Yemen Rank 9 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 85 / Position: 9 WWL 2016: Points: 78 / Position: 11 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Yemen are Islamic oppression and Ethnic antagonism (blended with Islamic oppression). Yemen is in a complex and devastating war fought between Muslim sects and split over various tribes. Sunni militant groups like al-qaeda and Islamic State (IS) use the chaos to gain territory and impose their rules. The country has seen political turmoil and violence since 2012 when the former president was ousted. Meanwhile, Yemen is facing a dire humanitarian crisis. 80% of the population is in need of some form of humanitarian assistance and more than half of the population is food insecure, making Yemen s hunger crisis one of the worst in the world. Of the four WWL categories of Christianity, only the communities of converts to Christianity from a Muslim background (MBBs) are currently left in the country. Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians (e.g. from the West, Africa and Asia) have mostly left due to the devastating war in which civilians bear the brunt of the violence. Overall, the pressure on Christians in Yemen is at an extreme level and rose considerably compared to WWL 2016. The high level of pressure is explained by the war and the departure of most expatriate or migrant Christians. As a result only indigenous Christians have been focused on in the WWL research and they experience the highest levels of persecution. Pressure in all spheres of life is at an extreme level, but is strongest in the private, national, and church spheres of life. This is typical for a situation in which there are mostly MBBs in a country and Islamic oppression is the main persecution engine, blended with Ethnic antagonism. The level of violence is very high and increased compared to WWL 2016. There were more reported cases of Christians killed for their faith and churches and/or Christian buildings attacked. The most serious anti-christian incident was an attack on a Catholic home for elderly and disabled in which 16 people were killed, four of them were nuns. An Indian priest was abducted by the assailants. The overall pressure in Yemen characterized by a volatile persecution situation which corresponds to the current chaotic and lawless situation of war in Yemen. 6. Future outlook: An end to the war is not expected in the near future. Meanwhile, Yemen s humanitarian and economic situation is catastrophic. Analysts expect Islamic militant groups to remain in the country for the next few years. This means extreme levels of violence and pressure on Yemen s religious minorities are likely to continue, especially for Christians as they are mostly 15
converts from Islam and hence particularly vulnerable. Nevertheless, reports show that more Muslims are turning to Christ than ever before. [Word count: 500] Return to Contents (page 1) 16
17
Eritrea Rank 10 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 82 / Position: 10 WWL 2016: Points: 89 / Position: 3 2. Persecution engines: Three persecution engines operate in Eritrea: Dictatorial paranoia (main), Islamic oppression and Denominational protectionism. Although Eritrea dropped in score and rank (due mainly to a reduction in violence), there has been an upward jump in score over the past decade and this is due to the nature of the Eritrean regime which is authoritarian and intolerant towards any form of association, dissent, and free expression. The government s attempt to control all religious institutions was particularly evident in the deposing and replacing of the Patriarch of the Eritrean Orthodox Church (EOC) in 2007 who has now been under house arrest ever since. High pressure is also being exerted by the EOC on those leaving the EOC to join Evangelical or Pentecostal groups. The situation in Eritrea is also contributing to the global refugee crisis: Thousands have been fleeing the country. In October 2016, a UN Human Rights Commission of Inquiry investigated the human rights crisis in Eritrea and recommended that the Eritrean government be referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague. All WWL categories of Christianity exist in Eritrea and face severe persecution: Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians, Historical Christian communities, communities of converts to Christianity (from a Muslim background MBBs but here also including churchchangers from an Orthodox background) and non-traditional Protestant Christian communities. Overall, the pressure on Christians went down considerably in the WWL 2017 reporting period but remains at an extreme level. Pressure is at an extreme level in all spheres of life, with highest scores being recorded in the national and community spheres of life. This is typical for a situation in which Dictatorial paranoia is the main persecution engine. In Muslim dominated areas, persecution is strong in the private and family spheres of life, especially affecting MBBs. This is the result of the persecution engine Islamic oppression. The score for violence is over 50% lower than in WWL 2016 but is still at a high level. Over the last years, thousands of Christians have been arrested and imprisoned and many died as prisoners. There are still many Christians languishing in prisons just because of their faith. 6. Future outlook: Despite reports from human rights groups, Eritrea has not yet faced serious consequences for its appalling human rights record. Considering past trends, the following seem likely: The Eritrean government will continue its authoritarian course, oppressed Eritreans will continue to flee the country and non-traditional Protestant Christian communities will continue to be regarded as agents of the West. 18
The Eritrean government will continue forcing Christians to join the army without upholding the rights of conscientious objectors. The Eritrean Orthodox Church and radical Muslims will continue persecuting converts. [Word count: 497] Return to Contents (page 1) 19
Libya Rank 11 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 78 / Position: 11 WWL 2016: Points: 79 / Position: 10 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Libya are Islamic oppression and to a lesser extent Organized corruption and crime (blended with Islamic oppression). Libya is still mired in the conflict and chaos that engulfed the nation since Colonel Muammar Gadaffi s regime was toppled. The country had since then been in a state of anarchy with various militant groups controlling different parts of the country. A UN-brokered deal that attempted to bring the various factions into one inclusive Government of National Accord has not been successful. With US and European support, forces loyal to the Unity Government had been able to defeat Islamic State (IS) forces and expel them from their stronghold in Sirte. Of the four WWL categories of Christianity only two exist in Libya: Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians and communities of converts to Christianity from a Muslim background (MBBs). Both experience extreme pressure and high levels of violence. Overall, the pressure on Christians is at an extreme level and increased considerably in comparison to WWL 2016. Pressure is most extreme in the national, church and private spheres. Pressure in the community sphere is also extreme. Tribal ties in Libya are strong and blended with Islamic oppression. Therefore, the pressure from the community on MBBs to return to Islam will be very intense. The violence level is high but lower than in WWL 2016 when it was very high. The impunity of those who perpetrate violent attacks against Christians exacerbates the problem. The persecution situation in Libya is fueled by the state of anarchy in the country and the violent conflict in which Islamic militias are active, resulting in the persecution of both Libyan MBBs and migrant Christians. 6. Future outlook: Due to the continuing prominence of local militias, including militant Salafist militias, and the absence of a government that has effective authority across the country, Christians cannot expect their situation to improve substantially in the foreseeable future. Widespread impunity for crimes committed against Christians is likely to continue. Even if the prominence and military might of IS has diminished in 2016, the influence of militant Salafist groups in Libya is going to persist. The existence of rival governments in eastern and western Libya, the prevalence of tribalism and the fact that the country is awash with all kinds of arms mean that the future of Libya (as well as that of Christians in Libya) looks bleak. [Word count: 453] Return to Contents (page 1) 20
Nigeria Rank 12 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 78 / Position: 12 WWL 2016: Points: 78 / Position: 12 2. Main persecution engines: In Nigeria the persecution engines affecting Christians are Islamic oppression (main) and to a lesser extent Tribal antagonism and Organized corruption and crime. Nigeria is a federal country with Christian majorities in the southern states and mainly Muslim majorities in the northern states. Twelve states have instituted sharia, partially or fully since 1999. Since Muhammadu Buhari became president in 2015, Nigeria s military campaign against Boko Haram has been relatively successful in dislodging the group from the territories it had occupied in northern parts of the country. Despite Buhari s intention to fight Boko Haram, which has been responsible for much of the violence against Christians in recent years, the government seems to be reluctant to respond to the continuing violence against Christians in the Middle Belt region caused by Hausa-Fulani Muslim herdsmen. Of the four WWL categories of Christianity, Nigeria has three (since expatriate or migrant Christians usually worship within established congregations): Historical Christian communities, communities of converts to Christianity (from a Muslim background, MBBs) and non-traditional Protestant Christian communities. These are affected to varying degrees in the northern states. Overall, the pressure on Christians in (northern) Nigeria is at a very high level and rose very slightly compared to WWL 2016. Pressure is strongest and at a very high level in the community and national spheres of life. This is typical for all types of Christianity in northern Nigeria where converts to Christianity face enormous pressure to renounce their faith and all types of Christianity are restricted in their access to community resources. Pressure from Islamic oppression is also high in the private and family sphere in northern Nigeria especially in relation to MBBs. The violence score is at an extreme level but not as high as the maximum reached in the WWL 2016 reporting period. The overall persecution situation is fueled by Islamic oppression, but in northern Nigeria and the Middle Belt it is also partly fueled by ethnic antagonism. The prevalence of corruption also exacerbates the situation since it fosters a culture of impunity for those who attack Christians. 6. Future outlook: Islamic oppression and ethnic antagonism are likely to persist in Nigeria in the foreseeable future, making especially northern Nigeria a dangerous place for Christians. Buhari s campaigns against Boko Haram have had some success, but the group is also intensifying its attacks and making more frequent inroads into neighboring countries such as Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Until now, the government has taken no decisive measures concerning the 21
violence of Hausa-Fulani Muslim herdsmen against mainly Christian farmers in the Middle Belt region. However, this situation might change and the government might become more responsive as the prospect of the next election looms larger. [Word count: 493] Return to Contents (page 1) 22
Maldives Rank 13 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 76 / Position: 13 WWL 2016: Points: 76 / Position: 13 2. Main persecution engine: The persecution engine affecting Christians in the Maldives is Islamic oppression blended with Dictatorial paranoia. Internationally, the Maldives still have the image of being a holiday paradise; however, the country follows a strict form of Islam and is struggling with unrest and many political challenges. In September 2015, the defense minister was sacked and Vice-President Abdullah Adeeb was charged with treason for trying to assassinate the president. President Yameen brought about an exit from the Commonwealth in October 2016. Political freedoms continue to be restricted as shown by the new Defamation Law, ratified in August 2016. Freedom of religion is restricted still further since the protection of religion is purely understood to mean the protection of Islam. The protection against destroying religious unity is also worrying, as this wording indicates that the authorities will oppose any perceived deviation from their understanding of Islam. Two types of Christianity exist in the Maldives and are experiencing persecution: Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians are closely monitored and have meeting restrictions. Communities of converts to Christianity (in this case Muslim Background Believers MBBs) bear the brunt of persecution. They are not officially recognized as existing in the country and cannot have contact with the (mostly Indian and Sri Lankan) expatriates. The overall pressure on Christians remains at an extreme level. The authorities have not shown any signs of granting freedom to religious minorities or to any other perceived deviation. Pressure is strongest in the national, church, family and private spheres of life, which all received extremely high scores. While pressure in the national and church spheres is typical for countries suffering from Dictatorial paranoia, the pressure in the private and family spheres points to the difficulties MBBs is facing. Pressure mainly results from Islamic oppression, which is active in all spheres of life and is linked to the understanding that every Maldivian must be Muslim. Finally, the score for violence against Christians has always been very low. Pressure is so all-encompassing that additional violence is simply not needed. Some converts have decided to move abroad in order to avoid persecution. 6. Future outlook: Two worrying trends are apparent: 1) The government continues to restrict public opinion and closed down the main newspaper Haveeru in March 2016. 2) Huge social challenges (especially in relation to a lack of perspective for the island s youth) translate into a growing Islamic radicalization. The Maldives have the highest per capita rate of terrorists fighting 23
abroad. In June 2016, Maldivian fighters even threatened the government with attacks since the country s leaders are seen as evil powers they are at war with. [Word count: 486] Return to Contents (page 1) 24
Saudi Arabia Rank 14 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 76 / Position: 14 WWL 2016: Points: 76 / Position: 14 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Saudi Arabia are Islamic oppression (main) and to a lesser extent Ethnic antagonism (blended with Islamic oppression). There is a growing gap between Saudi s large youth population and the ageing monarchs. Youth culture is changing under the influence of satellite TV, the internet and social media. There is also a considerable degree of youth unemployment. The internet revolution has also reached Islamic leaders and several imams have twitter accounts with a large following. The number of Christian converts from Islam and other religions is increasing, along with their boldness in sharing their new faith. Saudi Arabia is one of the few countries in the world without any church buildings. Only two WWL categories of Christians exist in Saudi Arabia: 1) Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians: Of the foreign Christians, it is especially the migrant Christians from low income countries who are affected and treated badly because of their ethnicity and low status. 2) Communities of converts to Christianity, here from a Muslim background (MBBs). Saudi and other nationalities of MBB risk fierce persecution from family, society and government. They have to live out their new faith in deepest secrecy. Overall, the pressure on Christians remains at an extreme level, with a very slight increase from the level recorded in the WWL 2016. [1] The scores for pressure in all spheres of life are at extreme levels, except for the score in the family sphere which is at a very high level. Pressure is most extreme in the church and national spheres of life which is typical for a situation in which Islamic oppression is the main persecution engine. Pressure resulting from the persecution engine Islamic oppression blended with Ethnic antagonism is present mostly in the private, family and community spheres and is exerted by the social environment. Fewer reports of violence were registered compared to WWL 2016, with less confirmed reports of Christians being arrested and Christian gatherings raided. The score remains at a low level. The overall persecution situation in Saudi Arabia is characterized by strong societal and governmental pressure on MBBs in a country whose citizens are expected to be Muslims. 6. Future outlook: In the short run, no major changes are expected. In its annual forecast, the Economist Intelligence Unit, observes the rise of the young deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman who has loosened social restrictions that affect the youth. The struggle with Iran for power in the region is expected to dominate Saudi foreign agenda. The severe religious restrictions 25
that are typical for the persecution engine Islamic oppression in its fully developed form will continue to lead to severe pressure for religious minorities, including Christians. [1] This increase is mainly due to adjustments based on the availability of more information. In reality, pressure on Christians did not change that much compared to the WWL 2016. [Word count: 499] Return to Contents (page 1) 26
India Rank 15 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 73 / Position: 15 WWL 2016: Points: 68 / Position: 17 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in India are Religious nationalism and to a lesser extent Islamic oppression and Communist and post-communist oppression. Furthermore, Christians are facing corruption daily, but this does not especially target them. Since May 2014 India is being governed by a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As a result, radical Hinduism, which was already present under the previous government, has increased steadily. While the level of intolerance increased, and minorities were regularly attacked by radical Hindus, the central government refused to speak out against the perpetrators thus further encouraging them to step up their actions. The level of impunity has gone up markedly. All four WWL categories of Christianity exist in India and are experiencing varying levels of persecution. Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians tend not to be active in outreach and are not usually targeted. Historical Christian communities experience some attacks of vandalism by radical Hindus. Communities of converts to Christianity here from a Hindu background (HBBs) - bear the brunt of the persecution. They are constantly under pressure to return to Hinduism and are often physically assaulted, and sometimes killed. Non-traditional Protestant Christian communities are the second main target because of their involvement in outreach activities and conversion and face regular attacks by radical Hindus. Overall, the pressure on Christians has increased greatly in the WWL 2017 reporting period and is at a very high level in all spheres of life. This is typical for a situation in which several persecution engines are active. Pressure is strongest in the national sphere. Religious nationalism is the main persecution engine and it is present in all spheres of life. Pressure from Islamic oppression is present mostly in the private, family and community spheres and is exerted by the social environment on MBBs, while the pressure from the Naxalite Communists (which affects all categories of Christians) is felt mostly in the community and church spheres. The number of violent incidents against Christians rose in the WWL 2017 reporting period and is at the extreme level (as was the case in WWL 2016). India has one of the highest levels of violent incidents in the WWL 2017. The overall persecution situation in India has deteriorated markedly since the previous World Watch List. 27
6. Future outlook: Radical Hindu attackers are increasingly enjoying impunity when they harass Muslims or Christians. As a result, the level of fear and uncertainty among the majority of Christians in India is increasing. It is likely that this dangerous trend (i.e. the fact that the government is looking away when religious minorities are attacked) will incite an increase in violence in the coming years. [Word count: 499] Return to Contents (page 1) 28
Uzbekistan Rank 16 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 71 / Position: 16 WWL 2016: Points: 70 / Position: 15 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Uzbekistan are Dictatorial paranoia (which has emerged from Communist and post-communist oppression) and to a lesser extent Islamic oppression. Uzbekistan has one of the harshest dictatorships in Central Asia. The regime will do everything possible to stay in power all forms of opposition and deviations from the norm will be ruthlessly attacked. Christianity is regarded as an alien and destabilizing factor. On top of this Muslim Background Believers (MBBs) experience additional pressure from their social and cultural environment. All four WWL categories of Christianity exist in Uzbekistan and are experiencing some form of persecution. Communities of expatriate or migrant Christians and Historical Christian communities experience the least problems from the government as they do not usually evangelize actively. Communities of converts to Christianity (in this case, converts from a Muslim background, MBBs) bear the brunt of the persecution both at the hands of the state and from family, friends and community. Non-traditional Protestant Christian communities suffer from raids, threats, arrests and fines, especially when the churches have not been registered. The overall pressure on Christians although very high - went down very slightly in the WWL 2017 reporting period. The pressure is extreme in the private, national, and church spheres. Pressure in the family and community spheres is at a very high level. This is typical for a situation in which Dictatorial paranoia is the main persecution engine. Pressure resulting from the persecution engine Islamic oppression is present mostly in the private, family and community spheres and is exerted particularly on MBBs by the social environment. A significant number of violent incidents were reported which has caused the score for violence against Christians to rise from a fairly high level to a high level. The overall persecution situation in Uzbekistan is mainly caused by a paranoid government seeking to increase its control over all areas of life. 6. Future outlook: Uzbek President Islam Karimov died on 2 September 2016. He was quickly succeeded by Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev. This means that for Christians little (if anything) will change: state bodies (police, secret services, mahalla local authorities) will continue to monitor religious activities by various means (bugging homes, tapping phones, infiltrating groups etc.) and visit church services. Raids on house church groups, confiscation of religious materials, interrogation and detention of believers will continue. Pressure on and violence 29
against MBBs from family, friends and local community is likely to continue, if not increase. [Word count: 461] Return to Contents (page 1) 30
31
Vietnam Rank 17 1. Ranking: WWL 2017: Points: 71 / Position: 17 WWL 2016: Points: 66 / Position: 20 2. Main persecution engines: The persecution engines affecting Christians in Vietnam are Communist and post-communist oppression and Ethnic antagonism. Communism is more than just cosmetic in Vietnam as was shown in January 2016, when the new leadership was announced, countering all hopes for a more reformist approach. The Catholic Church is by far the largest Christian community in the country, but government sees it as being tied to a foreign power, the Vatican, and as a remnant from French colonial days. On 18 November 2016 the government adopted a new Law on Belief and Religion, a revised version of its Law No. 92, which limits freedom of religion considerably. All WWL categories of Christianity exist and are affected by persecution. Communities of expatriate or migrant Christian are regularly monitored by the authorities. Historical Christian communities have experienced arrests and land-grabbing by the authorities. Communities of converts to Christianity from a Buddhist or ethnic-animist background face the strongest persecution, which comes not only from the authorities, but also from families, friends and neighbors. Non-traditional Protestant Christian communities tend to gather in housechurches and (like converts) their members are often from ethnic minorities like the Montagnards and face discrimination at various levels of society. The overall pressure on Christians is very high and rose considerably in the WWL 2017 reporting period. This was mainly caused by the authorities reverting to Communist rhetoric and the new draft law limiting religious groups by especially controlling their meetings. Pressure is strongest in the national and church spheres, which is typical for Communist countries. Pressure is also very high in the private sphere reflecting the problems Christian converts from other religions are facing. Pressure from Communist and post-communist oppression and Ethnic antagonism is present in the above mentioned spheres as well as in the community sphere. The pressure here occurs because many Christians belong to ethnic minorities. Finally, the increasing pressure is reflected in a rise in violence against Christians which remains at a very high level. Three Christians were killed for their faith in the reporting period. 6. Future outlook: The Communist Party installed a technocrat rather than a reformer as its new leader. The growing tensions with China may lead to a phase of insecurity and re-orientation and to restricting any views seen as deviating, including Christian ones. Despite having been granted a voice in the drafting process of the law on religion, Christians and other religious minorities 32