Saudi Arabia: New Strategy in Syrian Civil War Key Judgment: Saudi Arabia has implemented new tactics in the Syrian civil war in an effort to undermine Iran s regional power. Analysis: Shiite Iran continues to endorse and support the al Assad regime in Syria, creating concerns for the Saudi Arabian government. Since the US has engaged Syria and Iran in negotiations instead of enacting military force, as assumed by Saudi officials, Riyadh has turned to new measures in undermining Assad. Officials support moderate nationalist Salafist-jihadist groups under the name of the Islamic Front in an effort to combat religious extremists from al Qaeda, Jabhat al-nusra, and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). While success for the Assad regime would strength Iran s regional influence, Riyadh views jihadist extremists as the largest domestic issue. Efforts have been made to unify the Free Syrian Army and Islamic Front into a coherent rebel force to fight against Assad and limit the power of the ISIL. Reports indicate Saudi Arabia is working with Pakistan to train rebel forces in Jordan and Turkey to fight under the Syrian National Coalition. By using rebel forces and uniting moderate Salafist-jihadist groups, Saudi Arabia seeks to overthrow the Assad regime, reduce religious extremist groups influence in the Middle East, and undermine Iran as a regional powerhouse. Assessment: Saudi Arabia will likely continue to employ new techniques to cripple the Assad regime and serious extremist groups. We expect that Riyadh will reach out to the US for assistance in supporting moderate jihadist rebel groups and training rebel forces in surrounding countries. Saudi Arabia must continue looking for moderate rebel forces to support in Syria, and unite small Salafist-jihadist groups under a common strategy of overthrowing the Assad regime. Without Riyadh orchestrating a unified rebel front, it is unlikely that the Assad regime will fall and the Saudi Arabian goal of undermining Iran s influence will fail. Author: Lauren Parker
Turkey: On-going Dynamics in the Syrian Conflict Key Judgment: Turkey continues to aid the Syrian insurgency despite its public statements of wanting to assist in negotiating an end to the Syrian crisis and wishing to avoid negative relations with Iran. Analysis: On 2 January, 2013, Syrian air radars locked onto two of Turkey s F-16 fighter jets flying reconnaissance on Syrian aircraft in close proximity to the border with neighboring Turkey. Also on that same day, a Turkish truck heading for the Syrian border was stopped, but not searched, after leaving Kirikhan for suspicion of aiding the Syrian insurgency. Turkey s Interior Minister claimed that the truck was delivering aid to some of Turkey s men inside Syria. No confirmation has been given up to this point that the truck was indeed supplying weapons and munitions to Syrian rebels. More recently, on 23 March 2014, a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Syrian MiG-23 fighter after straying into Turkish airspace during heavy fighting with the Syrian insurgency. In light of recent tensions between the two nations, the incident could have turned into open warfare rather than a simple brush-up between the two sides. Assessment: Turkey denies the allegations that it has been supplying and aiding the Syrian insurgency. However, sufficient evidence exists to suggest that Turkey has been supplying the rebels with weapons and fighters. Turkey s international policy of late, along with US policy, has been to seek out Tehran to assist in resolving the Syrian crisis by creating stability in the region instead of overthrowing the Assad regime. However, Turkey is still involved in sending weapons to the insurgency s Supreme Military Council. Turkey supports aiding the Syrian insurgency for two reasons: first, Ankara has publicly aligned itself against the Assad regime and is certain that Assad will remember this act if he remains in power after the crisis; and second, Turkey is aiding the Syrian rebels to achieve revenge for Syrian sponsored attacks along the Turkish border. Tensions have continued to escalate as a result of a Turkish military aircraft being shot down in 2012 by Syrian forces and Turkey returning the favor by downing a Syrian helicopter after entering Turkish airspace in 2013. We assess the tensions and incidents along the Turkish-Syrian border are unlikely to subside until after the conclusion of the Syrian crisis, and could potentially, although unlikely, result in a fullscale, conventional war. Author: Benjamin York
Somalia: Militants Increase Activity in Mogadishu Key Judgment: Al-Shabaab has increased attacks in Mogadishu to further destabilize Somalia, and allow the militant group to establish a stronghold in the capital. Analysis: On February 21, 2014, al-shabaab militants attacked the Somalian presidential compound in Mogadishu. The group reportedly carried out the attack by blasting a hole in the perimeter wall with a car bomb and exchanging gunfire with African peacekeepers. The two government officials killed in the attack were the secretary to the Prime Minister and the former deputy national intelligence agency chief, General Nur Shirbow. The attack occurred just over a week after another car bombing near the airport in Mogadishu killed two people and wounded four more. The increase in attacks over the past few weeks has raised concerns about the ability of the government and African peacekeepers to secure the capital and conduct an effective counterinsurgency. Assessment: The presence of many supporters of al-shabaab in Mogadishu has made it difficult for security forces to prevent the militants from operating inside the capital. The increase in attacks by al-shabaab will continue to destabilize the security of the government in Mogadishu. The failure of security forces to conduct an effective counterinsurgency will allow the militant group to continue to threaten the control of the government over its Somali territory. The government is preparing for a planned military offensive led by an expanded African Union peacekeeping force to drive the militants out of their remaining strongholds by the end of 2014. We assess the campaign will likely be effective in limiting the presence of al-shabaab in Mogadishu, however, it is unlikely that the militant group will be entirely eradicated from Somalia. Author: Carrie Bowers
Mexico: Militias Form in the Michoacán Region of Mexico to Counter to Drug Traffickers Key Judgment: Militia groups have formed in the Michoacán Region of Mexico due to the actions of local drug trafficking organizations and the lack of intervention from the Mexican government Analysis: Because of the violence of The Knights Templar (a drug cartel based in the Michoacán region of Mexico), self-defense groups have formed to combat the violence stimulated by drug cartels. In February of 2014, an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 civilians have formed militias across over 20 different towns in the Michoacán region of Mexico. These militias are typically made up of civilians (usually male) from a given area or town in the Michoacán region operating illegally to protect their families and livelihoods. Most militias are not supported by the Mexican government, but independently acquire small arms, explosives, and other resources. Certain militia groups have been grandfathered under the Mexican government, but most prefer to operate in a vigilante fashion. Militias that are supported by the Mexican government receive small arms and operational equipment, equipping them to a similar status as Mexican law enforcement or military. However, most militia groups receive strong support from the local population and are assisted in daily operational tasks, recruiting, and acquisition of resources. Assessment: Violence caused by drug cartel operations in Mexico is not a new problem. The Mexican government has been trying to combat drug violence for the past several decades. Militia groups have formed due to the increased violence and lack of effective government intervention. While government intervention is usually the most effective action due to the funding and resources available to the national system, militias are fighting to protect their property, families and livelihoods. The situation is likely to digress if the Mexican government continues responding retroactively. For the situation to improve, the Mexican government should not only extend efforts towards increasing official interdiction, but they should also increase the support of militia groups. In summary, the Mexican government should continue to support and offer advanced training to militia groups across Mexico, thus combating the drug war in an unconventional method. Author: Jacob Knox Advisor: Dr. Gray
Somalia: al-shabaab on the Decline, but Still Dangerous Key Judgment: The Somalia-based terrorist group al-shabaab is in a weakened state due to continued attacks from African Union forces as well as infighting among its leadership. However the group remains dangerous if the international community and security forces do not maintain pressure. Analysis: al-shabaab was the militant wing of the Somali Council of Islamic Courts which seized control over most of southern Somalia in the second half of 2006. Although African Union forces defeated the group in 2007, the group still maintains some control over select areas of central and southern Somalia. This clan-based insurgency continues recruiting, sometimes forcibly, regional sub-clans and their militias, while using guerrilla warfare and terrorist tactics against the Somali Federal Government, African Union peacekeepers in Somalia, and nongovernmental aid organizations. In a notable incident, al-shabaab carried out a successful attack in Uganda in 2010 killing 74 people, who were watching the World Cup. More recently, an attack on a Kenyan shopping mall in September 2013 resulted in an 80 hour siege and 67 deaths. As of 2014, African Union forces have largely degraded al-shabaab s control, especially in Mogadishu and other key regions of Somalia. Assessment: The situation is likely to remain static in terms of how much power al-shabaab welds and how much territory it controls. The overall status and disposition of al-shabaab depends largely on how much pressure African Union forces can maintain on the terrorist group. As long as the US and other Western allies support and train African Union forces, we assess that al-shabaab will continue to struggle to maintain its operational fighting capability and tempo. Author Blaine Rhyne Advisor: Dr. Gray