I srael and the Diaspora two worlds that are

Italo-Israeli academic Sergio Della Pergola explains that, on the basis of current demographic trends, which show that immigration levels are lower than in earlier decades, Jews risk becoming a minority in their own country and that Israel s leaders, before Hamas s victory in the Palestinian elections, have therefore begun to wonder if it might not be better to retreat into a more small-scale, democratic Jewish State rather than pursue the plan of a larger State. Della Pergola: why Israel wants a small State TRENDS 2 edited by Donato Speroni Baubau I srael and the Diaspora two worlds that are closely linked not only from the religious, cultural and economic viewpoints but also in terms of demographic implications. The Jewish presence in Palestine had grown as a result of immigration even before the birth of the State of Israel. The first to arrive following the 1917 Balfour Declaration by which Britain recognised the right of the Jewish people to create a national home for themselves were Europeans motivated by the sacred flame of Zionism. Nazi persecution gave immigration a further push, although Britain did everything possible at the time to stop the influx of refugees. After the creation of Israel and the 1948 War the migratory flow continued, first from Europe and then from the North African and Middle Eastern countries, where the Jewish communities were marginalised or even expelled by nascent Arab nationalism. There was a further impetus in the 1990s with the large-scale arrival of immigrants from Russia (as well as Ethiopia and, to a smaller extent, from South America), motivated by economic rather than idealistic reasons. Over the years, demographic growth originating from immigration, together with the afflux of capital from the Diaspora and efficient internal administration has helped Israel to strengthen and develop its economy despite the costs of the many wars (to date, military service lasts three years for men and two years for women, with a one-month recall every year) as well as to maintain the Jewish identity notwithstanding the increase in the 75

DELLA PERGOLA: WHY ISRAEL WANTS A SMALL STATE Arab population. Today, however, the flow of arrivals from the rest of the world is trickling to an end, and Israel s leaders are interrogating themselves about the future of the Israeli state in 10 or 50 years time. Among the leading academics to have taken on the role of stimulating this thought process is Sergio Della Pergola, an Italian who has been living in Israel for the last forty years. A professor at the Avraham Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry, he is in charge of the Demographic Project, which produces an annual report, at the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute or JPPPI in Jerusalem. Many Israelis confirm that Della Pergola s projections have had a significant influence on Ariel Sharon s strategic choice to begin the retreat from the occupied territories so as to allow the Jewish state to maintain a balanced demographic situation in the medium and long term as well. east interviewed Della Pergola at his home in Jerusalem. In your first report in 2002 you asked three fundamental questions: Are we facing a Jewish demographic crisis? Will there still be a Jewish Diaspora in 2100? Will the State of Israel have a majority Jewish population in 2050? Since then, these problems have been re-proposed every year. Can we therefore begin with an updated answer? There is undoubtedly quite a marked division between the situation in Israel and what is happening in the Diaspora. In Israel, unusually for a developed country, we are still witnessing a natural growth of the family. The fertility rate (the average number of children per woman, editor s note) is about 2.7 against about 1.2 in Italy. The Israeli population is hence expanding as a result of its own intrinsic strength, even if it has been able to grow faster because of immigration. But isn t it true that immigration is now slowing down? It s true. After the great exodus from the former Soviet Union, the source of immigration is nearing exhaustion. About 20,000 immigrants currently arrive every year: not much compared to a population of seven million Israelis. And immigration now takes place for economic rather than idealistic reasons. Only in part. This might be the case for the approximately 10,000 immigrants still arriving from Russia, a component that has been growing over the last few months and now also originates from towns, confirming fresh problems. But the other half, coming from Western countries, has idealistic or religious motivations (the latter is especially true as regards immigrants from the U.S.). In some cases, such as the 2,500 Jews who arrived from France in 2005, the reason is a feeling of discomfort in the home country. From France? France is undoubtedly a democratic and developed country; however, its Jewish community has suffered cases of physical attacks and synagogues being burned for years basically a preview of the events we have witnessed in the suburbs of French cities in recent months. Still, we re looking at small numbers. I would say it is the Diaspora the presence of Jews in the world itself that is undergoing a great change. Firstly, in developed countries Jews have had access before other communities to the middle and upper classes in which the demographic recession is being seen most strongly. They have adopted lifestyles that preclude reproduction. In addition, there is the phenomenon of assimilation, which is demonstrated in many ways but is 76

TRENDS 2 Olycom (2) _Israel is not experiencing a population decline, but immigration is slowing down. Perhaps Jews will no longer be in the majority in the future. These considerations have played a significant role in the strategic choice of Sharon (above right: before his stroke) to begin the retreat from the occupied territories (above left: protests to keep the Gaza strip) fundamentally based on mixed marriages and the tendency to insert children into mainstream society. So the numerical ratio between Jews in Israel and Jews in the Diaspora is changing? We can already state that 40 per cent of the Jewish population lives in Israel, another 40 per cent in the U.S. and 20 per cent in the rest of the world, but the proportion of Jews in Israel is increasing. Where do Jews live, besides in Israel and the United States? The largest communities are in France, Canada, the U.K. and Germany. It is mainly the Russian community that has remained in the former Soviet Union. In Germany? There has been substantial immigration from the USSR. Then there is Australia, to which a significant part of the substantial South African community has also moved, as well as Argentina and Brazil where, however, the presence is dropping because of the economic crisis. Basically, to understand the demographic trends of international Jewry we must consider the fact that Jews tend to progressively adapt to the general situation. Jewish communities remain stable in places where it is possible to live better; where there is precariousness, as in Poland or Russia, or even persecution, as in the Arab States, the communities disappear. Hence a correlation tends to establish itself between Jewish communities and the centres of the capitalist system. Don t the centres of the capitalist system also attract Israelis? I read in one of your reports that one-third of Israeli youth wishes to emigrate. According to a new social survey that came out recently, 80 per cent of Israelis are happy to stay in this country. However it is true that, against annual immigration levels of 20,000 people, about 15,000 people leave the country, especially for the United States and other Western countries. Some even return to Russia, in a typical case of failed integration. For young people, the exodus is mainly linked to job possibilities. And there is a reason for this. Israel is a small, educated country. The 77

DELLA PERGOLA: WHY ISRAEL WANTS A SMALL STATE U.S. in comparison is a huge market. It is clear that in supplying 3,000 new physicists we are up against a strong brain drain. One of our challenges is precisely that of understanding how to create a society that gives people sufficient qualified work opportunities. In this new situation, are there changes in the political relationship between Israel and the Diaspora? I d say we are beginning to come to terms with the problem. For example, I have been asked to form part of a commission set up by the President of the Israeli Republic a consulting forum to begin an exchange of ideas. Until now Israel has not seriously taken opinions expressed in the Diaspora into consideration, and on the other hand many Jewish organisations in the rest of the world have only superficially claimed to represent Jewish ideas. Basically, however, Israel can no longer count on an inflow of other Jews in the coming years. Provided there are no upheavals. For example, who could have imagined the collapse of the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1990s and the arrival of over a million immigrants? However, it is true that Israel can now only count on its own demographic resources. And how does this change the policy of the Jewish State? The question is precisely whether we want to continue to be a Jewish State. We have said that there are seven million citizens in Israel today, 5.5 million of whom are of Jewish origin (only 5.2 million as far as the rabbinate is concerned, but we maintain a definition that also includes non-jews in Jewish families or in any case assimilated). Then there are 1.4 million Arab Israelis in the Negev and Galilee, most of them Muslim but with a Christian component as well, plus 20,000 Druze living in the Golan Heights. Have you included East Jerusalem in your count of the Arab population of Israel, i.e. those with voting rights? Yes, because East Jerusalem was annexed in 1967. There are about 250,000 Palestinians. To complete the count of those who live within Israel s current borders, there are about 200,000 foreigners, prevalently African or Asian and mainly Muslim. The figure does not include the occupied territories. Precisely. There are about 1.3 million residents in Gaza and 2 million in Cisjordan. Including the settlers? No: there are about 240,000 Jews living in the territories, excluding the 8,500 who have evacuated Gaza, but we have already counted them as part of the Israeli population. What is the conclusion? It s a quick calculation. If we add them all up, there are 5.2 or at the most 5.5 million Jews on the one hand and about 5 million non-jews on the other. With these numbers and the different birth dynamics, the demographic overtaking process will happen tomorrow, if not today itself. I understand. Where does this lead? To quote someone else s phrase, I would say Israel has understood that it can allow itself only two of the following three characteristics: 1) being a Jewish State; 2) being a big State; 3) being a democratic State. If it does indeed wish to be a big State, i.e. extending to all the territories, it must accept that it will lose its Jewish identity or its democratic nature, denying citizenship to Arabs or even sending them away as the Israeli extreme right wants us to do. Hence Ariel Sharon s choice of favouring a smaller but democratic and Jewish State and the start of the retreat from the occupied territories. Of course we cannot reduce everything to demography, but these considerations have indeed weighed. On the other hand, there are those who prefer a large democratic State, even if this would mean a dilution of the Jewish component. Yes, this is the theory of a part of the Israeli Left the so-called post-zionists as well as some Arab leaders, including in the PLO. Even Arafat had understood towards the end that the demographic factor played to his advantage and no longer spoke of two States. 78

SELECTED INDICATORS ON WORLD JEWRY Country Jewish Population Index of Human Jewish Recent Ever Aliyah Tourists Violent (Core Definition) Development Day-school Out- Visited to Israel Antisemitic Attendance marriage Israel incidents Value World Rate (%) Rate (%) (% of Rank Jew. Pop. projected Most Most Most 1970 a 2005 b 2020 c 2002 d 2002 d recent a recent a recent a 2004 e 2004 e 2004 f World 12,633,000 13,033,000 13,558,000 0.956 0.273 1 177 20,893g 1,505,606g Israel 2,582,000 5,235,000 6,228,000 0.908 22 97 5 North America 5,686,000 5,652,000 5,581,000 0.939-0.943 4-8 2,132 422,700 United States 5,400,000 5,280,000 5,200,000 h 0.939 8 29 i 54 35 1,890 379,127 17 Canada 286,000 372,000 381,000 943 4 55 35 66 242 43,573 52 Latin America 514,000 398,000 364,000 0.888-0.463 29-153 1,238 63,784 Argentina 282,000 185,000 162,000 j 0.853 34 50-55 45 >50 458 11,734 8 Brazil 90,000 97,000 90,000 j 0.775 72 71 45 >50 237 11,414 5 Mexico 35,000 40,000 42,000 0.802 53 85 10 >70 53 14,668.. Other countries 107,000 76,000 70,000 j 0.888-0.463 29-153 75 15-95 >50 490 25,968.. Europe non-fsu 1,331,000 1,161,000 1,030,000 0.956-0.734 1-88 3,174 751,254 g France 530,000 494,000 482,000 0.925 16 40 40-45 >70 2,003 257,484 96 United Kingdom 390,000 298,000 238,000 0.930 12 60 40-45 78 363 146,482 84 Germany 30,000 115,000 108,000 0.921 19 <20 >60 >50 85 75,895 50 Hungary 70,000 50,000 34,000 0.837 38 <15 60.. 112 6,868 3 Other EU k 171,000 150,000 134,000 0.946 0.842 2-42 10-25 33-75 >50 314 205,551.. Other non-eu l 140,000 54,000 34,000 0.956 0.751 1-88 5-20 50-80.. 297 57,449.. FSU m 2,151,000 380,000 173,000 0.853 0.671 36-116 10,127 100,010 g Russia 808,000 235,000 130,000 j 0.795 57 <15 80.. 3,982 55,702 45 Ukraine 777,000 84,000 25,000 j 0.777 70 <15 80.. 3,055 24,207 16 Rest FSU Europe 312,000 40,000 15,000 j 0.853-0.681 36-113 <15 65-75.. 984 8,619.. FSU Asia 254,000 21,000 3,000 0.766-0.671 78-116 <15 50-75.. 2,106 8,795.. Asia (rest) n 104,000 19,000 21,000 0.938-0.482 9-149 285 95,208 Africa 195,000 79,000 60,000 0.853-0.273 35-177 3,880 43,367 South Africa 118,000 73,000 57,000 0.666 119 85 20 70 82 12,609 5 Oceania 70,000 109,000 101,000 0.946-0.542 3-133 56 17,226 Australia 65,000 102,000 95,000 0.946 3 65 22 54 14,871 16 a Source: Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics, The A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. b Source: DellaPergola, American Jewish Year Book (2005). Provisional data. c Source: adapted from DellaPergola, Rebhun, Tolts (2000), medium variant. d A measure of a country s public health, educational attainment, and economic standard of living. Source: United Nations Development Programme (2004). e Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (2005). f Tel Aviv University Center for the Study of Antisemitism (2004). g Including countries not reported. h After downward reduction following NJPS 2001. i Based on incomplete sample from NJPS 2001. j Revised population projections for 2020. k Without Baltic states. l Including Turkey m With Baltic states. n Without Israel, FSU and Turkey. So Sharon has opted for a small and democratic Israeli republic to safeguard its Jewish character. It remains to be seen whether this choice will be confirmed in the new political scenario. However, what is Judaism in Israel? This is a very topical issue in the country. A recent survey informs us that Orthodox Jews form 10-11 per cent of the total population, a little over half a million. But Israeli society as a whole is a continuum between the religious and the secular, with infinite variations: those who wear the kippa (the traditional Jewish head cover, editor s note), those who eat Kosher, those who strictly keep the Saturday Sabbath or do only some of these things, or perhaps none. However, it is a society where 95 per cent of those who define themselves as Jews gather periodically around old customs, which are significant in defining the culture of the group. In other words, even if many Jews in Israel are no longer religious, they nevertheless feel the need to mark their own identity. Yes, I would say that s it. It is an important characteristic, not least in consideration of the geographical framework in which Israel exists. For the moment, at least, diluting this identity would risk distancing us from democracy and the values of more advanced societies. 79