Prashant Mavani, is an expert in current affairs analysis and holds a MSc in Management from University of Surrey (U.K.). Above all he is a passionate teacher.
Roots of nuclear history in Iran Under a 1950s agreement, the United States agrees to provide a nuclear research reactor in Tehran and power plants. In 1968, Iran signs Non-Proliferation Treaty The Iran-Iraq war, from 1980-1988, changes Iran's thinking about the nuclear program. It was in 1984 when it decided to go for a nuclear bomb. As per The New York Times, it got help from the Father of Pakistan s nuclear weapons program Abdul Qadeer Khan. In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the then President of Iran becomes a divisive figure in world affairs, cheering on the development of Iran s nuclear program despite orders from the United Nations Security Council to halt it, calling for Israel to be wiped off the map ' and describing the Holocaust as a myth.
Sunni vs. Shia Problem started some 1400 years ago after the death of Prophet Mohammad Two sides clashed over who should succeed the Prophet. Both groups agree that there is one God and Prophet Mohammad is messenger. They both follow 5 pillars of Islam and read Quran. Disagreement of interpretation has caused such a division. It is a common knowledge that this part of the world is rich in oil. This has also led to a cut throat competition between both the groups. The hostility between Iran and Israel is well known. Israel is believed to have nuclear weapons. Furthermore, if Iran gets nuclear weapons, then it can keep its rivals in this region under its feet.
Since Iran's undisclosed nuclear activities came to light, the country has been hit by a raft of sanctions - by the United Nations, European Union, United States of America and some other countries. These include a ban on the supply of heavy weaponry and nuclear-related technology to Iran, a block on arms exports, asset freezes, travel bans, bans on trade in precious metals, and bans on crude oil exports and banking transactions, among others. The sanctions have contributed to a fall in the value of the Iranian riyal and to rising inflation, with the cost of basic foodstuffs and fuel soaring. This has hit ordinary Iranians, with some rare protests reported. Under the 2013 interim deal, Iran got some sanctions relief in return for curbing its enrichment activities.
Multiple deadlines were missed as negotiators sought to build on an interim deal struck in November 2013 after the election of the moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who promised to end his country's international isolation. Nearly two years of lengthy, dense and highly technical discussions have resulted in a 159-page treaty with five annexes that is fittingly arcane and complex. Finally in 2015, the nuclear agreement signed in Vienna by six world powers and Iran promises to have a sweeping impact on both the citizens of the Islamic Republic and potentially the geopolitics of the entire Middle East.
1. Uranium Stockpile Give up 97% of its enriched uranium From 10,000kg down to 300kg Five important pillars of the agreement 2. Uranium Enrichment Uranium comes in different levels of enrichment A purity of 90% is what is needed to make weapons Iran can produce modest amount of uranium enriched to low levels at 3.67%. This will continue for 15 years 3. Centrifuges reduction Centrifuges are machines used to enrich uranium It has to give up 2/3rd of its centrifuges From 19000 it will be down to 5000 1000 more allowed for Research and Development 4. Inspections UN inspectors will have access to nuclear facilities But, Iran can challenge request for access This can take up 24 days and some critics say its enough to hide things 5. Sanctions relief USA + EU + UN will remove many economic, financial and energy sanctions.
On July 14, 2015, the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the European Union (EU), and Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to ensure that Iran s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. October 18, 2015 marked Adoption Day of the JCPOA, the date on which the JCPOA came into effect and participants began taking steps necessary to implement their JCPOA commitments. January 16, 2016, marks Implementation Day of the JCPOA. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has verified that Iran has implemented its key nuclear-related measures described in the JCPOA, and the Secretary State has confirmed the IAEA s verification. As a result of Iran verifiably meeting its nuclear commitments, the United States and the EU have lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, as described in the JCPOA.
Coming back to West Asia Until 2011, the main conflict in the region was between friends of America and friends of Iran. In 2016, Iran and USA started talking and agreeing with each other. US, Iran and both sets of their allies are involved in regional wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Syria: Iran has spend billions supporting Assad regime. The west wants him out. Iraq: Arabs, Americans and their friends are on the same side against ISIS. Recently, there was a Kurdish referendum. Saudi Arabia and its friends in the region has cut off ties with Qatar. The relations between Turkey and Europe is getting bitter. Israel and Saudi Arabia are key western allies and they are also Iran s most significant regional adversaries. They are not happy about the deal nuclear deal at all. Finally, in 2017 USA had its change of guard and Donald Trump takes over.
United Nation General Assembly, Sep 2017 President of USA Mr Trump threatened to step out or withhold certification. As per the condition, Trump has to certify the deal every 90 days. The next deadline is 15th Oct 2017. Trump believes that the deal is an embarrassment and Iran will have weapons in 5 years. If he does not gives his nod, then the Congress will have two months to decide. Then it can put some fresh sanctions on Iran. E3 i.e. France, Germany and U.K. tried to persuade Trump but he has made his mind. Europe will now try to lobby Congress. Europe is arguing that so far Iran has not breached the agreement. The trade relation of EU and Iran in the first 6 months of this year is at $12 billion. Note: This is a UNSC resolution. It belongs to International Community and not to any 1 country. Iran said that the accord cannot be renegotiated. China and Russia are not going to accept the stand of USA. China has invested huge amount of money in Iran.
Side effects Iran can go for nuclear arms. Iran s Revolutionary Guards could unleash Shia militia against U.S. troops in Iraq, and expand support to Afghan insurgents just as Mr. Trump s surge gets underway. Saudi-Iran tensions would spike, and the risks of a U.S.-Russia confrontation in West Asia would jump dramatically. More broadly, abrogation of the JCPOA would be devastating for Washington s credibility in future diplomacy. In future, it would be very difficult to bring North Korean regime on table.
India-Iran In October 2016, Iran was India s largest supplier of crude oil. India is also funnelling Iranian oil into its expanding strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), with a view to holding 90 days supply against contingencies. Tehran has consistently offered New Delhi very favourable terms, including non-dollar oil sales and other commercial attractions. Both nations have reached agreement on the expansion of several industrial facilities at the port of Chabahar. India to have operating rights in the Farzad B gas field, which lies within Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf. Iran buys basmati rice and sugar from India, as well as various agrochemicals and petroleum products.
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