Is the Bible a reliable source of Information? - Prove of the existence of an all-knowing, almighty God by propheticmathematical evidence - By Werner Gitt, Braunschweig The one striking feature that distinguishes the Bible from all other world literature is, without doubt, the many prophecies that have already been fulfilled in time and space. More than 3000 prophetical statements have happened just as they were announced, often several hundred years previously. Not one prophecy is known that has been fulfilled differently than predicted, a fact that presents itself as a unique criterion for testing the reliability of the Bible. The Bible is peerless as we will show in this section. The Bible was written over a time-span of about 1600 years by more than 40 different authors who were authorized and inspired by God. These authors had no possibility of coordinating their work. All they had in common was their trust in the living God and the driving force of His Holy Spirit, who enabled them to write the truth (2 Peter 1:21). The numerous prophecies fulfilled, often after several centuries, show the Bible to be the word of truth. It is significant that a biblical prophecy has never been shown by historical or scientific facts to be false. Let us pick just one example that was fulfilled in the last century from the large number of prophetical statements, namely, the return of Israel from the diaspora: The scattering and return of Israel God had presented His people Israel with a blessing or a curse, according to whether they were obedient or disobedient toward Him. Deuteronomy 28:64-65 states that if they were disobedient they would be scattered over all the earth: Then the LORD will scatter you among all the nations, from one end of the earth to the other. Among those nations you will find no repose, no resting place for the sole of your foot. The scattering of the Jews began with the destruction of Jerusalem by the Romans in 70 A.D; but God in Jeremiah 16:14-15 had already promised their return to their promised land several centuries before this event: However, the days are coming, declares the LORD, when men will no longer say, 'As surely as the LORD lives, who brought the Israelites out of Egypt,' but they will say, 'As surely as the LORD lives, who brought the Israelites up out of the land of the north and out of all the countries where he had banished them.' For I will restore them to the land I gave to their forefathers. Israel has existed again as a nation since 1948 and Jews have returned to Israel from all around the world. The land of the north is mentioned especially from all the 1
countries of the earth. Is it not remarkable that Moscow and Jerusalem lie on the same line of longitude? It is not difficult to see that the biblical term 'land of the north' means the former Soviet Union. Since 1989, 840,000 Jews have returned to Israel from that gigantic country. This represents one sixth of all Jews in today's Israel. It is not surprising that God makes special reference to the home-comers from that region. Mathematical calculations As Biblical prophecies almost always refer to extremely rare or even unique events that occurred since the creation of the world (e.g., the parting of the Red Sea: Exodus 14:21; reversal of the direction of the sun's shadow on the sundial: 2 Kings 20:4-11). The high improbability of such unique events resulting from chance makes the probability of less than one in a million a realistic assumption. The American Bible teacher P. W. Stoner calculated empirically the likelihood of the random fulfilment of the nine prophecies about the destruction of Babylon according to Isaiah 13 as 1 in 5000 million. In our following calculations, however improbable their chance of fulfilment may be, we will use the extremely high probability p = 0.5 (1 in 2), for the chance fulfilment of each prophecy. In this way we will be very conservative before drawing our conclusions from the results of our calculations. This high value for p more than compensates aspects that our model cannot consider, such as: Many prophecies appear in the Bible more than once. A remarkable event like the return of Jesus is referred to several times. However, we must remember in the case of such multiple references that they are not merely repetitions of previously documented Bible statements but, rather, they include expansion of earlier details. Nevertheless, most prophecies do occur only once. The laws of mathematical probability require that all events be independent of each other. (A simple example: if we throw a die twice the outcome of the second throw is totally independent of the first. This independence condition is fulfilled by most of the prophecies. In several cases, however, the sequence of the individual events is significant, where event B cannot take place ahead of event A. The details of the sacking of Tyre in Ezekiel 26 are an example of this. According to Dake's Bible [D1], 3268 verses (v) contain biblical prophecies 1 that have already been fulfilled. In the following calculation we will make the simplifying assumption that the number of verses, v, containing fulfilled prophecies is equal to the number of fulfilled prophecies, n P. This simplification is certainly true in the majority of cases; overall, however, n P will be several percent smaller than v. As we will see, even this effect will be more than compensated by the extremely conservative value, p = 0.5 that we have chosen for the basic probability of chance fulfilment. 1 Lists of prophecies: Finis Jennings Dake (1902-1987) painstakingly investigated the Bible for its prophecies, as well as other aspects, and compiled them statistically. With the prophecies for each book of the Bible, he points out by marginal notes that, for example, this is the n th prophecy of the current book. He also describes whether a prophecy has already happened and after each book of the Bible there is a summary of the statistics. 2
The probability, P, that all n P = 3268 prophecies have been fulfilled by chance is calculated by multiplying 0.5 by itself 3268 times: P = 0.5 3268 1.7 x 10-984. The number P = 1.7 x 10-984 is so unimaginably small that we will try to picture it with the help of an anthill model [G1]. It is important to understand the magnitude of this number P because it gives us a measure of the reliability of the Bible and the degree of its Author's knowledge. The Anthill Model In order to demonstrate how infinitesimally small P is, let us imagine an ant heap in which there is only one red ant among all the other black ones. It is easy to agree that the larger the ant heap the smaller the probability of picking out the one red ant by chance (i.e. blindfolded). The question now to be answered is the comparison C1: C1: How many ants must be in the ant heap for the probability of picking out the one red ant by chance to be the same as the probability of 3268 prophecies being fulfilled by chance? Let us now try to approach this interesting question step by step. While on a lecture tour in Portugal some time ago, I was invited to speak to some scientists at the University of Lisbon about why I think that the Bible is reliable. I talked about the many prophetical statements which had already been fulfilled and I soon came to mention our number P = 1.7 x 10-984. Is it possible that all these predictions have happened by chance, or is there a God who is behind everything? If we can absolutely exclude chance, then the question of the trustworthiness of the Bible is answered and establishes the Author's omniscience. In that case, all these prophecies represent the truth. If the prophetic statements were indeed true, and only explicable through the foreknowledge and omnipotence of God, then we would be justified in concluding that all the other parts of the Bible must also be true. Whether the chance fulfilment is conceivable or not can be shown computationally in a superlative manner. What follows is how I explained my above-mentioned ant model in Portugal. While the author believes that it would be worthwhile to read the details of the calculations with this model, the reader may opt to jump ahead to the Conclusions from the Above Calculations section. 1. The water glass: there was a glass of water in front of me and I posed the rhetorical question whether a glass full of ants would be enough to satisfy C1. My standard ant occupies a volume of 10 mm 3 so that there would room for about 20,000 of them in my water glass. The probability of picking out the one red ant by chance is therefore P 1 = 3
1/n 1 = 1/20,000 = 0.00005. Compared with P, P 1 is much too large. We have to increase the number of ants. 2. The bathtub: now consider a bathtub full of ants. There is room for n 2 = 36 million of them. The probability of finding the one red ant by chance is P 2 = 1/n 2 = 2.8 x 10-8. This number is also far too large compared with 1.7 x 10-984 (7 zeroes after the decimal point, in comparison with 983 zeroes). We need more ants! Let us also consider another significant question in this context: if the Bible contained considerably fewer prophecies than 3268 then we would need fewer ants to reach a comparable probability. There must be a number of prophecies whose probability of fulfilment is the same as the probability of picking the red ant out of the bathtub at random. In other words: if there were only n P prophecies in the Bible, then their random fulfilment would have the same probability of obtaining the red ant with one random trial into the bathtub full of ants. The number is easy to calculate 2 : n P = 25. 3. Portugal: since we only managed to reach the equivalent of n P = 25 prophecies with a bathtub full of ants, we will have to increase the number of ants drastically. In Lisbon, I proposed covering the whole of Portugal with a layer of ants 5 meters deep. The area of Portugal is 92,000 km 2 so that the number of ants, n 3, covering Portugal to a depth of 5 meters would be n 3 = 4.6 x 10 19. How shall we find the red one by chance in this heap? Well, let us take a hot-air balloon, drift for several hours over Portugal, land somewhere and pick an ant while blindfolded. What is the probability that we select the only red one? In this case, P 3 = 1/n 3 2 x 10-20. Results in our normal world with such a low probability are regarded in physics as impossibilities. However, we are still a very long way from P = 1.7 x 10-984, as we can see from the fact that, here, n P would be 65 still far below 3268. What must we do? One Portuguese scientist proposed covering not just little Portugal but the whole earth with ants, and to increase the depth of ants from 5 to 10 meters! Would that be enough? 4. The entire earth's surface: the earth has a surface area of 510 million km 2. The number of ants that would fit into the volume of a 10 meter thick shell around the earth would be approximately n 4 = 5 x 10 23. How shall we perform our selection of a single ant from this heap? Let us take a jet and ask the pilot to fly in any arbitrary direction for an arbitrary length of time, say 11 hours and 23 minutes, and then ask him to land amongst the ants. There, where we have landed by chance, we will open the door and blindly pick an ant. What is the chance that we will choose the only red ant? The calculated probability, P 4 = 1/n 4 2 x 10-24. Even this gigantic number of ants would only represent n P = 78 prophecies. We still have too few ants! We have to increase the number of ants to an astronomical number: let us fill the whole universe with them. 5. The entire universe: according to current estimates, the universe has a diameter of 30,000 million light years. One light year is about 9.5 million million km. If we assume a 2 Calculation of n P : P 2 = 1/n 2 = 1/(2 np ); therefore, n P = log n 2 /log 2 = 25.09 25. 4
spherical form then we obtain a volume, V = 1.2 x 10 70 km 3 = 1.2 x 10 88 mm 3. The number of our standard ants which fit into this volume is approximately n 5 = 1.2 x 10 87 all of them black except our single red ant. Now we need a special transport system, a space ship, that can move through this universe of ants at the speed of light and someone with an indefinite lifespan so that he can at will say, after 11,153,000 years of flight open the spaceship s hatch door to pick an ant. The probability that his selection is the one red ant is P 5 = 1/n 5 8.3 x 10-86. This value is far beyond the limit that we have already called physically impossible ; but this is the same probability as if there were only n P = 288 already fulfilled prophecies in the Bible. What shall we do now? If one universe full of ants is not enough we should take several universes. How many? Do we need 10, 100 or even 1000 universes? A Polish member of the audience of a lecture in Danzig made the bold suggestion that 1000 or even millions of universes would not be enough; we would have to take as many universes as the number of ants that would fit into one universe! This proposal is a giant leap forward. Let us see if his suggestion brings us closer to the goal. 6. As many universes as ants that fit into one universe: we have already calculated the number of ants that fit into one universe; so, we now take 1.2 x 10 87 universes. Into all these universes we could fit about n 6 = (1.2 x 10 87 ) 2 = 1.44 x 10 174 ants. How can we make the draw this time? Firstly we use a computer's the random number generator to pick one universe from the more than 10 87 (which is 1000 times larger than one million raised to the power of 14) universes. Let's say it gives is a number between 10 56 and 10 57, that is, an integer with 56 digits. Then we could go to that imaginary 56 th -digit universe, travel through it at the speed of light for thousands of years, stop and pick out an ant. The chance of picking the red ant would be P 6 = 1/n 6 7 x 10-175 ; but even with this unimaginable number of universes we would only cover n P = 578 prophecies. What is the next step? We can only do one thing more. Let us calculate the number of universes which represent n P = 3268 prophecies. 7. How many universes full of ants are needed for 3268 prophecies? We begin with our by now familiar probability P = 1.7 x 10-984. The total number of ants is given by, n 7 = 1/P 5.83 x 10 983. The required number of universes is then, n U 5.83 x 10 983 / 1.2 x 10 87 = 5 x 10 896. We need to understand that 10 896 is an unimaginably gigantic number it is a one followed by 896 zeros. The number of universes that we would need is not only trans-astronomical, but trans-trans-...trans-astronomical! Conclusions from the above calculations Why have I presented all of these staggering numbers, when we have long since left the comprehensibility of our original ant model or the realm of viable possibilities? We have deliberately done these calculations in several steps in order to present a lasting impression of the overwhelming nature of the mathematical calculation. It is vitally important that all readers become vividly aware of the unambiguous and inevitable 5
conclusion to be drawn from them, specifically, that there must be an almighty and omniscient God behind everything. We have seen that the calculations produce such gigantic, trans-astronomical numbers that stretch our imaginative capacity beyond what we can realistically comprehend. We started with the question What is the probability that biblical statements prophesies about future events could be fulfilled by chance? We established that the probability that so many prophecies would later be fulfilled by chance is realistically impossible. Our model contains three assumptions that cause the result of our calculation to be somewhat imprecise: (1) Many prophecies occur more than once in the Bible. (2) In some cases the chronological sequence of the prophecies is significant. This means that the required mathematical independency of events is not always guaranteed. (3) To simplify matters, we have set the number of verses, v, containing fulfilled prophecies equal to the number of fulfilled prophecies, n P., Under 7 above, we estimated the number of universes full of ants n U = 5 x 10 896 that we would need to be comparable to the probability of 3268 prophecies being fulfilled. Even if we were to take half that number n P = 3268/2 = 1634 of prophecies, we would still need n U = 6 x 10 406 universes filled with ants. Thus, the following conclusions have a solid mathematical basis because our conservative assumptions more than compensate for our simplified model. We will now derive five important direct conclusions and two indirect conclusions, each of which is dependent on its predecessors. Direct Conclusions (DC): 1. The prophecies could not have been fulfilled by chance DC1: It is not possible that the biblical prophecies could have been fulfilled by chance. The objection raised by some critics the prophecies have been fulfilled by chance in the course of time is therefore mathematically proven incorrect. 2. Proof of the existence of an almighty and omniscient God DC2: As the prophecies could not have been fulfilled by chance, there has to be an almighty and all-knowing God that supplied these prophecies. 6
3. Prophetic-mathematic proof of the existence of God DC3: As the fulfilment of the prophecies is only possible through God, we have now produced prophetic-mathematic evidence of God's existence 3 based on our calculations. We can also say that the worldview/religion of Atheism has been refuted. 4. Evidence that the God of the Bible is the only existing God DC4: As the subject of our considerations is the prophecies of the Bible, the God of DC2 is none other than the living God of the Bible. Thus all the gods of the diverse religions have been shown not to exist, they are, in the biblical terminology, idols (Psalm 96:5). 5. Proof that at least those parts of the Bible containing prophecies are true DC5: We have produced evidence that at least all those parts of the Bible that contain fulfilled prophecies are true. Indirect Conclusions (IC): From the afore-mentioned direct conclusions (DC), it is also possible to deduce the following indirect conclusions (IC): 3 Proof of the existence of God: there has been much discussion in the course of history of proofs for the existence of God. There have been both strong proponents as well as violent critics; and that has not changed to this day. The Bible itself leads us to the right judgement. Romans 1: 20-21 explains that we can infer the existence of God from the works of Creation with the aid of our understanding: For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities His eternal power and divine nature have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse. For although they knew God, they neither glorified Him as God nor gave thanks to Him. The expression they knew God is a very strong statement. It says that God has revealed Himself independently of the Bible. It is for this reason that I support arguments that point unequivocally to God; but just by accepting proofs of God's existence certainly does not mean that one has come to trust Him. There must also be a revelation from the Bible and the Holy Spirit that Jesus has to be accepted freely as one's personal Saviour. Even if proofs of God's existence do not lead directly to faith in Him, they are, nevertheless, very helpful for dismantling and even eliminating diverse obstacles. 7
1. The prophecies which have not yet been fulfilled, will also be fulfilled according to plan IC1: Of the N = 6408 prophecies of the Holy Bible, n = 3268 have already been fulfilled. Many prophecies (in particular those of the Book of Revelation) refer to the Second Coming of Jesus and the end of world history. These cannot have been fulfilled yet. However, we can deduce that these also will be fulfilled according to plan, just as prophesied. 2. The whole Bible must be true IC2: As we were able to demonstrate that large portions of the Bible are true, it is virtually conclusive that the whole Bible must be true. With this, we have refuted all those critics who claim that the Bible is myth. The seven conclusions above can be summarized as one general conclusion: GC: The existence of an all-knowing, almighty God has been proven to be true by prophetic-mathematical evidence. This God is the God of the Bible and He is the only existing God. The Holy Bible is from God and is the Truth! Now we are certain that the Bible is the word of Truth. We came to this all-important conclusion using mathematical calculations. Various Bible quotes say the same. For example, Jesus prayed to His Father in heaven, Your word is truth. (John 17:17). The apostle Paul declares, I believe everything that agrees with the Law and that is written in the Prophets. Now we have found an information source beyond science that can answer questions that cannot be answered by science. [D1] Dake s Annotated Reference Bible, Dake Bible Sales, Inc., P.O. Box 173, Lawrenceville/Georgia, USA, 1961 [G1] Gitt, W.: So steht s geschrieben, Christliche Literatur-Verbreitung, Bielefeld, 7th extensively reworked edition 2008, 255 pp. 8