Yemen, the war the world has forgotten Its actors as the way to understand the conflict

2017/06/14 Yemen, the war the world has forgotten Its actors as the way to understand the conflict Maria del Mar Cánovas Bilbao 1 INTRODUCTION Since the breakout of the Civil War in Yemen in 2015, tensions in the country has never stopped. Apart from understanding how the Islam is divided and why its branches fight against each other, the main points to know deeply why the Yemeni conflict is still ongoing are the actors. The way the actors are involved in the conflict and how they act are the central subject to analyze the situation in the Republic of Yemen. A full knowledge or understanding of the conflict of Yemen is really difficult because as most analysts denominated it, it is the forgotten war. BASIC INFORMATION ABOUT YEMEN Yemen, officially called the Republic of Yemen, is a country situated between the Middle East and Africa. It shares borders with Oman and Saudi Arabia and its capital city is also the most populated city, Sana a. Yemen has an estimated population of 23 million habitants. Yemeni population is mostly Muslim and in order to understand the conflict that is going on is must know that Islam has two principal branches, Sunnis and Shiites, that have been the origin of several confrontations along the history and are the key to understand the ongoing conflicts in the Arab World. 2 Those differences have recently gained a greater political weight. Actually, the current Republic of Yemen rose up from a process that was full of divisions and unifications that appeared in the end of the 20 th century. Regarding the economy of the Republic of Yemen is important to say that is based on the exportation of oil. The fall of its price made the incomes of the country reduced 1 Degree in International Studies Philosophy Faculty of University Autonoma of Madrid. 2 The Sunni-Shia Divide (2016). Council On Foreign Relations. Avaliable in https://www.cfr.org/peaceconflict-and-human-rights/sunni-shia-divide/p33176#!/?cid=otr-marketing_url-sunni_shia_infoguide Página 1 de 11

significantly and the security panorama neither contribute to the economic situation. 3 Yemen has survived thanks to the foreign direct aid, mostly given by Saudi Arabia. Yemen since its unification, it has been a democratic republic and the current president is Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-hadi, but he was overthrown since the beginning of the conflict. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In order to understand a conflict is important to know its origins, but in the case of Yemen is not easy to find the turning point. Up until the unification in 1990, Yemen was divided in two parts, the Yemen Arab Republic, also known as North Yemen and the People s Democratic Republic of Yemen or South Yemen. The main differences between them were the religion and so, the culture. North Yemen was predominantly Zaydi Shia and South Yemen was Sunni. Although this is important to understand the conflict and knowing that the origin of the Yemen war was much earlier, a proper analysis to the situation calls for the date back to the Arab Springs. Ali Abdullah Saleh was the president of the Republic of Yemen since the 22th of May of 1990 until the 25 th of February of 2012. One thing important to stress is that this president was Shiite and the current president is Sunni. ONGOING CONFLICT The current crisis happening in Yemen nowadays has its roots in June 2004 when the leader of the Zaydi Shia sect known as the Houthis, Hussein Badreddin al-houti, rebelled against a supposed oppression of the Shia minority by the Sunni government in Yemen. The situation has gotten worse since 2010 when the former president Ali Abdulah Saleh decided to broke the dialogue with the opposition forces, great mistake by Saleh. During the Arab Springs (2010-2013) the Yemeni population raised against the corrupt president by peaceful demonstrations, but they were violent repressed by the government. The promised democratic transition never took place so that, the protests continued. In 2012, Saleh was dismissed and after a referendum, Abd The conflict of Yemen started as an internal war seeking for power, but now is almost an international war where there is also a confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The most tragic consequence of their involvement is that they are polarizing Rabbuh Mansur al-hadi took over the presidency. and radicalizing the conflict, even more. 4 3 Igualada Tolosa, C. (2017). Guerra civil en Yemen: actores y crisis humanitaria. Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos. Avaliable on http://www.ieee.es/galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2017/dieeeo26-2017_guerracivil_yemen_carlosigualada.pdf 4 Almarzoqi, M. (2016). Zero Tolerance for an Iran-Dominated Yemen. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Avaliable in http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/64527 Página 2 de 11

The internal political problems of Yemen are now getting really severe, apart from the fact that Yemen has never had a really strong State apparatus. The main issues that made the unleashing of the war were not only the sharing of power in the national scope but also the structure of the State. Problems that are not solved yet and the belligerent part of the conflict is getting more complicated. ACTORS INVOLVED IN THE CONFLICT In the Yemeni s conflict, there are different parties involved and backed by outside forces that are adversaries in other battles, which made the zone even more instable. Saudi Arabia and Iran are two big powers in the Middle East and also enemies, so their interference and influence in Yemen is making the conflict a war of interests. The Houthis are backed by Iran but the legitimate government of Hadi is backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and also by the United States. In order to understand the role of each actor here is a brief analysis by alliances: Hadi s government and their allies: Saudi Arabia, the United States, United Kingdom France, and the Gulf Cooperation Council The president of Yemen, Abd Rabbuh Mansour al-hadi apart from being politician is a military man, quality that gives him a broad perspective about security and defense issues, crucial in this conflict. Before being the president, he was acting as Página 3 de 11

Vice President since 3 of October 1994 to 25 February 2012 and then, since June 2012 he has been the President Of Yemen (then called Republic of Yemen). The Houthis overthrew the government of Hadi, and the president returned to Yemen after eight months of exile in November 2015, so Hadi was obliged by the situation to seek for support and help. First of all he fled to Aden but he went to Saudi Arabia where the Yemeni Government made a coalition with the assistance of the United States. This coalition was built in order to prevent something happen as in Iraq. 5 Since Obama became took office, the United States became an important external actor in this conflict. They had made, not only important military efforts but also economic in order to stabilize the Yemen government and strengthen their security forces. For years, drone attacks have been their main exe of the counterterrorism strategy. 6 This method is really criticized but Obama declared on January 2015 that the unique alternative would have been deploying U.S troops in the region, something that was and is not sustainable. Nowadays, Trump s administration decided to intensify the drone strategy and has ordered the Pentagon to enhance the campaign against AQAP in Yemen. (After an airstrike) (Source: The New York Times) Saudi Arabia has also cobbled together with the Gulf Cooperation Council (saving Oman). The GCC is a regional unity project gathering the oil-rich Arab monarchies of the Gulf, which are Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Their areas of expertise are border security, intelligence cooperation, and 5 Gopalakrishnan, M (2016). Why is Saudi Arabia interested in Yemen?. Deutsche Well. Avaliable on http://www.dw.com/en/why-is-saudi-arabia-interested-in-yemen/a-36000785 6 Fuente Cobo, I. (2015). Yemen, o como convertirse en Estado fallido. Panorama geopolítico de los conflictos 2015. Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos (IEEE). Página 4 de 11

development support, at least of Qatar, Oman and the UAE. Although Oman is in theory not involved, Qatar has been the most proactive of the Gulf Emirates in seeking to resolve Yemen s internal problem. However, Kuwait, for several historical reasons, is more reluctant to be involved in this war, but now this is changing and his economic aid is basic right now. 7 This coalition also received logistical and intelligence support from the United Kingdom and France. They also are sponsors of the resolution 2216 adopted on 14 April of 2015 by the United Nations Security Council, which basically say that sanctions will be imposed on individuals that are undermining the stability of Yemen. The Houthis and their allies: Iran and the Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh Ali Abdullah Saleh is the former president of Yemen since 22 of May 1990 until 25 of February 2012. Previously he was the president of the Arab Republic of Yemen or also known as North Yemen since 1978. He formally announced an alliance with Houthi fighters. They have backed Saleh for several reasons; the most significant one is that Saleh s successor, Hadi, restructured the army showing his preference for the Republican Guard. The Republican Guard had been under the command of Saleh s son and it is considered the best division of the army. Saleh s supporter as a way of revenge rejected any invitation to political participation. The political and military leader of the Houthis, Abdul-Malik al-houti, is seen as the only one who could protect their interests. The Houthis are a Shiite group from Sa dah (North Yemen) and they are the most powerful military force in the North and they joined the military forces of the former president Saleh against president Hadi. They arise in the beginnings of the 90 s as a political-religious movement but they became politically active after 2003 opposing Saleh for backing the U.S-led invasion of Iraq 8. They organized a coup d état and they took control of several government buildings. After this happening, the UN had to take part and although the efforts made by the United Nations to negotiate, they failed and the Houthis declared themselves in control of the state. They have backed Saleh for several reasons but the most significant one was that Saleh s successor Hadi restructured the army showing his preference towards the Republican Guard. The Republican Guard has been the command of Saleh s son. It is considered the best division of the army and the most competent. In a way of revenge Saleh s 7 Burke, E. (2013). EU-GCC Cooperation: Securing the Transition in Yemen. GRC Gulf Papers. Gulf Research Center. Avaliable on https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/166407/edward_burke_-_eu- GCC_Cooperation_Securing_the_Transition_in_Yemen_1042.pdf 8 Al Batati, S. (2015). Who are the Houthis in Yemen?. War & Conflict. Aljazeera. Avaliable on http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/yemen-houthis-hadi-protests- 201482132719818986.html Página 5 de 11

supporters rejected any invitation to political participation. But nowadays, tensions escalate between Saleh and Houthis. (Searching for survivors after an airstrike) (Source: France Press) Afterwards, the Houthis with Saleh established the Supreme Political Council (SPC), a governing body that intent to be the government but the legitimate government was the Hadi s one because they were elected democratically. No single country has recognized the SPC as the Yemeni Government and the United Nations was also totally opposed to this body. The Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi called for dialogue inviting them to create the Yemeni National Dialogue in order to solve the country s problems in a peaceful way 9. When this Conference ended they reached two conclusions; that the transition process had to be extended one year more (that is why Hadi remained on the power until January 2015) and the implantation of a federal State formed by six regions, something that created more conflict, specially in the Southern states. Nowadays the situation is quite different. Saleh appeared to turn against the Houthis and wanted the Supreme Political Council dismantled. 10 Saleh is also taking into 9 Schmitz, C. (2014). Yemen s National Dialogue. Middle East Institute. Avaliable on http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/yemen-houthis-hadi-protests- 201482132719818986.html 10 Shuja Addin, M (2016). Yemen s Houthis and former President Saleh: An Alliance of Anymosity. Policy Alternative. Arab Reform Initiative. Avaliable on http://www.arabreform.net/en/file/1635/download?token=res1uxjd Página 6 de 11

consideration the UN peace plan in Yemen and although he had many conditions before forming the government, he is open to negotiations. The Houthis are neither alone, Iran is their international backer; they have their military support and also provide them with armament. Apart from these, Iranian and regional sources claims Reuters said Tehran was providing Afghan and Shi ite Arab specialist to train Houthis and act as an advisers. Iran seeks to defeat Saudi Arabia and the U.S in the region and the Houthis want to recover the political power over Sana a, which is also backed by the rivals of Iran. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Terrorism has also a place in this conflict. The Yemeni branch of al-qaeda has strengthened as the conflict in the region escalated. It is called Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and is considered by the US as the most active operational franchise of al-qaeda. This organization was dismantling in 2003 but they could reorganize since 2006, under the leadership of Yemeni terrorists, which escaped from prision. 11 (Al Qaeda in Yemen) (Source: Europe News) This organization counts with terrorist trained in Somalia and that has good relations 11 Reinares, F (2011). La situación en Yemen y la amenaza terrorista de Al Qaeda. Real Instituto Elcano. Available on http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/web/rielcano_es/contenido?wcm_global_context=/elc ano/elcano_es/zonas_es/terrorismo+internacional/reinares_al-qaeda_yemen Página 7 de 11

with al-shabab. 12 Yemen s counterterrorism measures are really weak due to the political disturbances that are consuming all efforts and resources and AQAP is taking advantage of the situation. The civil war has coincidentally fortified AQAP by making Western powers pull back and the Yemeni and Saudi Arabia forces to concentrate on the fight against Houthi rebels. The United States reacted with a large counterterrorism campaign primarily consisting of drone strikes against his leaders. 13 This organization is capable of mounting deadly operations inside Yemen directed at Saudi Arabia and against the United States and its European allies. But, its primary targets continue to be foreigners, tourists and the energy infrastructure. 14 The intention of AQAP organization is to be integrated in the Yemeni population by providing them with their basic needs and trying to adjust the government structure. THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS Yemen s current situation is almost an unknown conflict for the Western world and the main reason is that there is no repercussion on the media. Violations of human rights and abuses occur almost everyday in Yemen but for the media are indifferent. Yemen is one of the most, not to say the poorest countries in the Middle East. (Child suffering from famine) (Source: World federation of Trade Unions) 12 Yihadist movement from Somalia, which joined al-qaeda in 2012. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States since 2008. 13 Report about Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Counter Extremism Project. Avaliable on https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/al-qaeda-arabian-peninsula-aqap 14 Yemen: terrorism is not its only problem. NATO Review. Avaliable in http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/yemen/yemen_terrorism/en/index.htm Página 8 de 11

According to the United Nations, one of the worst humanitarian crisis where almost 19 million people are needed of medical assistance and more than 7 million Yemeni citizens suffer from hunger. 15 Since March 2015 the conflict has caused more than 7.400 deaths and around 40.000 injured. Apart from this, the battleground that has been installed on Yemen and the air strikes on rebel-held areas fronted by the Saudi-led coalition backed by the United States and the United Kingdom has caused more than three million people displaced. This refugee crisis is not important for the Western world because is considered that is far away from Europe but this war could be even more disruptive than the one in Syria. In 2015 more than the 60% of the population in Yemen had to face some form of food insecurity and only half of Yemenis had access to potable water. 16 Nowadays in 2017, the situation is even worst and there are no open hospitals and most of Yemenis have no medical care at all. CONCLUSIONS As a way to conclude this analysis about the actors involved in the Yemeni Civil War I would like to propose some measures. As a multipolar war, multipolar solutions are needed for each pole of the conflict. First of all, dealing with the Houthis is one of the main points. This has to be done by peace takings including their participation because if they are not part of those reunions the political and the security instability will be present in the region forever. In order to avoid make Yemen into a Iranian-Saudi battleground the coalitions with Saudi Arabia and Iran maybe should be reduced in just diplomatic relations but on account of the seriousness of the conflict this proposal could be risky but needed. Second, taking into account the terror threat in Yemen by Al-Qaeda there is an urgency of establishes a strategy against the terrorist group. Some of the measures that have to be included in the strategy should be the development of counterterrorism assistance by supporting the state security forces and also bearing in mind the international training by specialists and increase maritime and border security. Third, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. International assistance is given to Yemen but due to the restrictions made by the coalitions most of the international aid gets just to Aden. So, the support of the United Nations Peacekeeping corps is extremely required and essential. 15 Data from the United Nations High Comissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) 16 Cole, J. (2015). Yemen: the war the world ignores, the refugee crisis it won t able to. Equal Times. Avaliable on https://www.equaltimes.org/yemen-the-war-the-world-ignores#.wtpwshpyhay Página 9 de 11

Fourth, the Yemeni Civil War has to be known all around the world in order to receive the support that it deserves. It should have media coverage as the Syria s war or the refugee crisis in Turkey has. As mentioned, Yemen is living the worst and most catastrophically humanitarian crisis but most of the world is not aware of it. Several opinions are given about the lasting peace in Yemen, but my consideration is that the end of this conflict is in hands of the Yemen politicians and their will. Negotiation and diplomacy have, not only to be present in the conflict but also have a real influence on it. BIBLIOGRAPHY Al Batati, S. (2015). Who are the Houthis in Yemen?. War & Conflict. Aljazeera. Al-Faquih, A. (2011). El levantamiento yemení: imperativos para el cambio y riesgos potenciales. Real Instituto Elcano. Al-Hamdani, S., Baron, A., Al-Madhaji, M. (2015). The Role of Local Actors in Yemen s Current War. Yemen in Crisis. Sana a Center for Strategic Studies. Al-Muslimi, F. (2015). What Will the Nuclear Agreement With Iran Mean for the War in Yemen?. Carnegie. Middle East Center. Almarzoqi, M (2016). Zero Tolerance for an Iran-Dominated Yemen. Carnegie. Endowment For International Peace. Blecua, R (2015). Una revolución en la revolución: los Houthi y las nuevas relaciones de poder en Yemen. Real Instituto Elcano. Burke, E (2012). One blood and one destiny? Yemen s relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council. Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States. The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Burke, E. (2013). EU-GCC Cooperation: Securing the Transition in Yemen. GRC Gulf Papers. Gulf Research Center. Cole, J. (2015). Yemen: the war the world ignores, the refugee crisis it won t able to. Equal Times. DeYoung, K., Ryan, M. (2017). Trump administration weighs deeper involvement in Yemen war. National Security. The Washington Post. Fuente Cobo, I. (2015). Yemen, o como convertirse en Estado fallido. Panorama geopolítico de los conflictos 2015. Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos (IEEE). Gopalakrishnan, M (2016). Why is Saudi Arabia interested in Yemen?. Deutsche Well. Hamad Zahonero, L., Gutiérrez de Terán Gómez-Benita I. (2015). Conflicto military y acciones terroristas en Yemen. Documento de investigación 07/2015. Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos (IEEE). Igualada Tolosa, C. (2017). Guerra civil en Yemen: actores y crisis humanitaria. Instituto de Estudios Estratégicos (IEEE). Mitreski, A. (2015). Civil War in Yemen: A Complex Conflict with Multiple Futures. Policy Analysis. Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies. Reinares, F (2010). Qué ocurre con Al Qaeda en Yemen?. Análisis: El terrorismo islamista. El País. Reinares, F (2011). La situación en Yemen y la amenaza terrorista de Al Qaeda. Real Instituto Elcano. Report about Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Counter Extremism Project. Página 10 de 11

Schmitz, C. (2014). Yemen s National Dialogue. Middle East Institute. Shuja Addin, M (2016). Yemen s Houthis and former President Saleh: An Alliance of Anymosity. Policy Alternative. Arab Reform Initiative. Terril, W.A (2011). The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security. Strategic Studies Institute. U.S. Army War College. The Sunni-Shia Divide (2016). Council On Foreign Relations. Torpey, P., Gutiérrez, P., Swann, G., Leveltt C. (2016). What is happening in Yemen and how are Saudi Arabia s airstrikes affecting civilians-explainer. The Guardian. Yemen conflict: How bad is the humanitarian crisis?. (2017). Middle East. BBC News. Yemen crisis: Who is fighting whom?. (2017). Middle East. BBC News. Yemen: terrorism is not its only problem. NATO Review. Yemen s al-qaeda: Expanding the Base (2017). Report Nº 174. International Crisis Group. Página 11 de 11