Yearbook of International Religious Demography 2015

Yearbook of International Religious Demography 2015 Edited by Brian J. Grim Todd M. Johnson Vegard Skirbekk Gina A. Zurlo LEIDEN BOSTON

Contents Preface IX List of Illustrations XI Editors and Contributors Introduction XIX XV part 1 The World by Religion 1 The World by Religion 3 Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo Non-Religionists 3 Agnostics 5 Atheists 5 Religionists 13 Baha is 17 Buddhists 21 Chinese Folk-Religionists 28 Christians 30 Confucianists 31 Daoists 31 Ethnoreligionists 39 Hindus 44 Jains 45 Jews 53 Muslims 56 New Religionists 61 Shintoists 68 Sikhs 70 Spiritists 73 Zoroastrians 80 Part 2 Religions by Continent 2 Religions by Continent 87 Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo Religions in Africa 87 Religions in Asia 89

vi contents Religions in Europe 89 Religions in Latin America 91 Religions in Northern America 93 Religions in Oceania 96 Part 3 Case Studies and Methodology 3 Global Population Projections by Religion: 2010 2050 101 Marcin Stonawski, Vegard Skirbekk, Conrad Hackett, Michaela Potančoková, Phillip Connor and Brian Grim Motivation 101 Data and Methods 102 Results 107 4 Trends, Patterns, and Determinants of Interreligious Partnerships in Austria (1971 2001) 117 Raya Muttarak and Maria Rita Testa Data and Methods 118 Descriptive Results 120 Multivariate Results 123 Discussion 132 Conclusion 133 5 The International Demography of Atheists 136 Ariela Keysar Atheists Worldwide 137 Demographics of Self-defined Atheists and Non-believers 144 The Nones 147 Other Methodological Challenges 149 Conclusion 151 6 Tracking the Emigration of Christians from the Middle East 154 Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo Changing Demographics of Global Christianity 155 Changing Demographics of Middle Eastern Christianity 157 Major Christian Traditions in the Middle East 159 Conclusion 159 7 Misunderstood Population? Methodological Debate on Demography of Muslims 163 Yaghoob Foroutan Background 163

Contents vii Methodology 164 Research Results 165 Concluding Remarks 168 8 Historical Demography of Hasidism: An Outline 177 Marcin Wodziński Traditional Resolutions 178 New Take 180 What is Next? 184 Conclusions 184 9 Global Religious Diversity 187 Brian J. Grim Levels of Religious Diversity 189 Regions 192 Diversity vs. Pluralism 197 About the Index 197 10 Christians, Muslims, and Non-religionists in the Context of Religious Diversity, 1910 2010 200 Todd M. Johnson Religious Diversity Index 201 Religious Diversity by Religion 204 Conclusion 210 Part 4 Data Sources 11 Data Sources 215 Juan Carlos Esparza Ochoa and María Concepción Servín Nieto General Sources 215 Data Archives 217 Sources by Country 217 Appendices Glossary 227 World Religions by Country 241 Index 270

chapter 10 Christians, Muslims, and Non-religionists in the Context of Religious Diversity, 1910 2010 Todd M. Johnson Over the past hundred years the religious landscape around the world has changed dramatically. Throughout the twentieth century there was an exodus of Europeans from Christian churches, but since 1970 religious adherence is on the rise globally, largely due to the collapse of Communism and to the recent growth of nearly all religions in China (Johnson and Grim 2013).1 Additionally, primarily because of migration, today people from a variety of religious (and non-religious) backgrounds are increasingly living in close proximity. This changing global religious landscape reflects changes in religious diversity by country. Religious diversity can be measured for any population grouping (Johnson and Grim 2013),2 but here it is expressed primarily in national terms. Religious diversity is present at two levels: intra-religious and inter-religious. Intra-religious diversity encompasses the diversity found within a given world religion (for example, traditions such as Roman Catholicism, Orthodoxy, and Protestantism within Christianity), whereas interreligious diversity describes the degree of over-all diversity of world religions (Islam, Hinduism, Judaism, and so on) in a given population or geographical area. This chapter focuses primarily on levels of inter-religious diversity (Johnson and Ross 2009). Religious diversity, normally measured for a whole country s population, can also be examined in the context of a particular religion. Most people have experienced an increase in the religious diversity of their home countries, yet people of the same religious background can live in countries with widely differing religious diversity. Thus, each individual religion has a different degree of regional or global diversity based on where its adherents live (measured by country). Changes over time within a single religion and differences between religions can then be observed. Individual secularization, which involves personal conversion out of a religion, is one significant way by which a population becomes more diverse (since both agnosticism and atheism are considered religious categories). Another way is conversion from one religion to another. In Africa during the twentieth century, for example, this typically involved conversion from tribal religions to either Christianity or Islam. A third way is the migration of religionists from one location to another. By virtue of these three 1 Globally, the percentage of atheists and agnostics has declined since the collapse of Communism in the former Soviet Union. 2 Parts of this article were adapted from Johnson and Grim s chapter on measuring religious diversity. koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2015 doi 10.1163/9789004297395_011

RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910 2010 201 dynamics births/deaths; conversion in/conversion out; immigration/emigration most of the countries of the world are becoming more diverse in their religious makeup. It is important to note that, within a particular country, inter-religious diversity can vary greatly from one locale to another, because religious adherents often cluster in local communities. Such is often the case for countries receiving significant numbers of immigrants or refugees, many of whom settle in major metropolitan areas (Johnson and Ross 2009). Nonetheless, for the purposes of this study national levels of religious diversity will be examined. Religious Diversity Index The Religious Diversity Index (rdi), based upon the Herfindahl Index, describes the inter-religious diversity of a particular country s or region s population using a scale from 0.00 (no diversity) to 1.00 (most diverse) (Laine 1995; Barro and McCleary 2006; McBride 2008; Johnson and Ross 2009; Grim and Finke 2007).3 The Herfindahl Index (also called the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, hhi), which measures the concentration of competitors within a market or industry, is calculated as the sum of the squares of the market share of each competitor.4 For example, the maximum hhi score (1002, or 10,000) occurs when a country has a single religious group. To translate this into a diversity measure, its inverse (HHI max HHI) is used; if only one religious group is present, HHI max HHI = 10,000 10,000 = 0, indicating no religious diversity. For a country in which four religious groups are present with shares of 40%, 30%, 20%, and 10%, the hhi is 3,000 (1,600 + 900 + 400 + 100 = 3,000), and its inverse is 10,000 3,000 = 7,000. In a country with eight religious groups of 12.5% each, the inverse hhi represents high religious diversity (12.52 8 = 1,250; inverse = 8,750). For ease of comparison with other indexes, these figures are converted into a scale ranging from 0.00 (no diversity) to 1.00 (greatest possible diversity), resulting in the Religious Diversity Index (rdi). 3 The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (hhi), sometimes called the Simpsons Ecological Diversity Index, is named for economists Orris C. Herfindahl and Albert O. Hirschman, who were the first to use it to measure industry concentration (that is, the extent to which a small number of companies account for the majority of a given market). 4 That is, HHI = s12 + s22 + + s N 2, where s1, s2, s N represent the percentage shares of each competitor and N is the total number of competitors. The rdi is calculated as 1 [(ρ 1/N) / (1 1/N)], where ρ = [(r1 /100)2 + (r2/100)2 + + (r N /100)2] and r1, r2, r N represent the percentages of a country s total population that profess adherence to each of N different religions (in this analysis, N = 18); each r i value is divided by 100 to change it from a percentage to a fraction. Thus, when a population exhibits the maximum possible religious diversity (each religion claims an equal percentage of adherents), then r i = 100/N for each religion, ρ = 1/N and rdi = 1. Conversely, if there is no religious diversity (that is, 100% of a country s population adheres to a single religion), then r1 = 100, all other r i values = 0, ρ = 1, and rdi = 0.

202 Johnson Calculating measurements on both the country and world regional levels5 provides a local perspective of diversity (country-level) as well as a cross-national view of diversity (world regional-level). Table 10.1 reports on diversity at the regional level, showing that between 1910 and 2010, all but five regions in the world experienced increases in aggregate rdi levels.6 The greatest regional increases, primarily due to migration, were found in Western Europe (+0.47), Australia/New Zealand (+0.45), Eastern Asia, (+0.42), Northern Europe (+0.38), and Northern America (+0.31). In each of these cases, the regional changes are due to changes measured at the national level. Despite significant changes in religious affiliation since 1910, Asia has remained the most religiously diverse continent in the world (rdi = 0.53), with Eastern Asia the most diverse region (rdi = 0.79). In 1910 more than 50% of Asia s population was Chinese folkreligionist or Buddhist; today, these adherents together total only 22% (Johnson and Grim 2014). Ethnoreligionists declined from 5.6% of the population in 1910 to 3.7% in 2010. These declines were the result of gains by Muslims (from 16.6% to 26.0%) and Christians (2.4% to 8.5%). However, greater proportional gains were made by agnostics (0.0% to 11.8%) and atheists (0.0% to 2.8%), especially in China (Johnson and Grim 2014). These religious changes in Asia are not entirely surprising, considering the inherently pluralistic nature of Asian culture (Phan 2004). It is also common for Asians to cross national boundaries in search of employment, such as the large Indian and Filipino migrant worker communities in various Persian Gulf countries. The World Bank estimates that three million Indonesian women work abroad, primarily in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia, and mostly in domestic work (Varia 2004). Nonetheless, increases in religious diversity are particularly apparent in the global North (e.g., Western Europe, with a change of +0.47 from 1910 to 2010), where secularization and immigration continue to diversify the religious landscape. The rdi changes over time for different reasons. It is important to have the relevant data on religions by country to understand the context of the rdi. Table 10.2 reports that religious diversity in the ten largest countries shows changes in more than one direction, or even reports no change where there has been significant change. Countries like China and Japan have become more diverse over time as a majority religion (Chinese folk-religion and Buddhism, respectively), decrease over time. Similarly, in India, Hinduism has lost some of its market share since 1910, thus increasing the country s diversity. The United States has also experienced a parallel trend in relation to Christianity (Brazil also, but less so). An opposite trends is found in Indonesia, where the largest tradition in 1910 was ethnoreligionists (tribal) at 45% but in 2010 was 5 At the regional and global levels, rdis are calculated using the formula (RDI1 f1) + (RDI s f s ) + + (RDI N f N ), where RDI1, RDI2, RDI N represent the RDIs of each individual country; f1, f2, f N represent each country s fractional share of the regional or global population; and N is the total number of countries in the region or the world. 6 The five regions not experiencing an increase in religious diversity from 1910 2010 were Southern Africa ( 0.17), Micronesia ( 0.16), Western Asia ( 0.13), Northern Africa ( 0.12), and South-eastern Asia ( 0.09).

RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910 2010 203 Table 10.1 Religious Diversity Index (rdi), 1910 and 2010, by un region, continent, and globe Continent/region Population 1910 rdi 1910 Majority adherents 1910 Population 2010 rdi 2010 Majority adherents 2010 Africa 124,541,000 0.28 Ethnoreligionists 1,031,084,000 0.38 Christians Eastern Africa 33,012,000 0.31 Ethnoreligionists 342,595,000 0.45 Christians Middle Africa 19,445,000 0.09 Ethnoreligionists 124,978,000 0.26 Christians Northern Africa 31,968,000 0.24 Muslims 199,620,000 0.12 Muslims Southern Africa 6,819,000 0.50 Ethnoreligionists 58,803,000 0.33 Christians Western Africa 33,296,000 0.37 Ethnoreligionists 305,088,000 0.53 Muslims Asia 1,026,693,000 0.37 Chinese folk 4,165,440,000 0.53 Muslims Central Asia 7,550,000 0.07 Muslims 61,694,000 0.23 Muslims Eastern Asia 554,135,000 0.37 Chinese folk 1,593,571,000 0.79 Agnostics South Asia 338,168,000 0.36 Hindus 1,681,407,000 0.38 Hindus South-eastern 93,859,000 0.50 Buddhists 597,097,000 0.41 Muslims Asia Western Asia 32,982,000 0.26 Muslims 231,671,000 0.13 Muslims Europe 427,044,000 0.10 Christians 740,308,000 0.36 Christians Eastern Europe 178,184,000 0.20 Christians 296,183,000 0.29 Christians Northern Europe 61,473,000 0.04 Christians 98,795,000 0.42 Christians Southern Europe 76,828,000 0.04 Christians 154,712,000 0.28 Christians Western Europe 110,558,000 0.03 Christians 190,618,000 0.50 Christians Latin America 78,254,000 0.09 Christians 596,191,000 0.15 Christians Caribbean 8,172,000 0.04 Christians 41,625,000 0.27 Christians Central America 20,806,000 0.02 Christians 160,546,000 0.08 Christians South America 49,276,000 0.12 Christians 394,021,000 0.16 Christians Northern America 94,689,000 0.07 Christians 346,501,000 0.38 Christians Oceania 7,192,000 0.08 Christians 36,659,000 0.41 Christians Australia/nz 5,375,000 0.06 Christians 26,773,000 0.51 Christians Melanesia 1,596,000 0.13 Ethnoreligionists 8,729,000 0.15 Christians Micronesia 89,400 0.30 Christians 498,000 0.14 Christians Polynesia 131,000 0.01 Christians 660,000 0.08 Christians Global total 1,758,412,000 0.27 Christians 6,916,183,000 0.45 Christians Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed September 2014).

204 Johnson Table 10.2 Ten most populous countries by rdi and religion, 1910 & 2010 Country rdi 1910 Major religions rdi 2010 Major religions China 0.37 F80%, B13%, M5% 0.81 Q33%, F30%, B15% India 0.36 H80%, M14%, T3% 0.47 H73%, M14%, C5% United States 0.07 C96%, J2%, Q1% 0.37 C80%, Q14%, J2% Indonesia 0.66 T45%, M40%, N10% 0.38 M79%, C12%, T2% Brazil 0.08 C96%, T3%, U1% 0.18 C91%, U5%, Q2% Pakistan 0.32 M83%, H14%, K3% 0.08 M96%, C2%, H1% Nigeria 0.43 T73%, M26%, C1% 0.60 C46%, M46%, T8%, Bangladesh 0.49 M66%, H32%, T1% 0.21 M89%, H9%, B1% Russia 0.31 C83%, M9%, J6% 0.35 C81%, M11%, Q6% Japan 0.36 B80%, S15%, N4% 0.64 B56%, N26%, Q10% B = Buddhists; C = Christians; F = Chinese folk-religionists; H = Hindus; J = Jews; K = Sikhs; M = Muslims; N = New religionists; Q = Agnostics; S = Shintoists; T = Tribals; U = Spiritists Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed September 2014. Muslims at 79%. Indonesia s rdi has fallen considerably. Pakistan has also become less diverse, largely because of partition in 1948 when large numbers of Hindus moved to India. The limitations of this method can especially be observed in the case of Russia, where the 100-year trend shows little change. However, Russia experienced one of the most tumultuous religious upheavals of any country in the 20th century, with the rise of state-imposed atheism that drove Orthodox Christianity underground, only for it to be revived post-1991. Religious Diversity by Religion Having determined the religious diversity of each country in 1910 and 2010, it is now possible to apply these findings to each religion. This creates figures that can be compared in two ways: (1) by religion over time (e.g., Christians in 1910 and 2010); and (2) between religions in a single year (e.g., Muslims vs. non-religionists in 2010). For the purposes of this study, adherents of three of the world s largest religions Christians, Muslims, and non-religionists (including both agnostics and atheists) are examined. Together these represented 68% of the world s population in 2010. Table 10.3 reports the religious diversity (calculated by country) for the 22 United Nations regions, 6 continental areas, and entire globe for both 1910 and 2010. Additional columns report on the religious diversity experienced by adherents of each of three religions first Christians, second Muslims, and finally non-religionists.

RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910 2010 205 Table 10.3 Christians, Muslims, and non-religionists in the context of religious diversity, 1910 2010 Country Country Christians Muslims Non-religionists rdi 1910 rdi 2010 rdi* 1910 rdi 2010 rdi 1910 rdi 2010 rdi 1910 rdi 2010 Africa 0.28 0.38 0.49 0.41 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.34 Eastern Africa 0.31 0.45 0.61 0.43 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.46 Middle Africa 0.09 0.26 0.06 0.21 0.40 0.54 0.00 0.25 Northern Africa 0.24 0.12 0.30 0.20 0.24 0.12 0.23 0.13 Southern Africa 0.50 0.33 0.53 0.33 0.54 0.34 0.54 0.33 Western Africa 0.37 0.53 0.28 0.60 0.41 0.46 0.00 0.58 Asia 0.37 0.53 0.32 0.51 0.35 0.24 0.33 0.78 Central Asia 0.07 0.23 0.10 0.44 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.26 Eastern Asia 0.37 0.79 0.36 0.81 0.37 0.81 0.37 0.80 South Asia 0.36 0.38 0.37 0.44 0.33 0.22 0.36 0.46 South-eastern Asia 0.50 0.41 0.31 0.28 0.64 0.40 0.26 0.64 Western Asia 0.26 0.13 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.10 0.19 0.20 Europe 0.10 0.36 0.09 0.34 0.32 0.40 0.07 0.43 Eastern Europe 0.20 0.29 0.19 0.28 0.31 0.34 0.18 0.36 Northern Europe 0.04 0.42 0.04 0.41 0.03 0.45 0.05 0.46 Southern Europe 0.04 0.28 0.03 0.27 0.38 0.36 0.06 0.30 Western Europe 0.03 0.50 0.03 0.50 0.01 0.51 0.03 0.51 Latin America 0.09 0.15 0.08 0.14 0.39 0.24 0.45 0.22 Caribbean 0.04 0.27 0.04 0.23 0.34 0.50 0.02 0.50 Central America 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.02 0.09 South America 0.12 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.42 0.23 0.46 0.20 Northern America 0.07 0.38 0.07 0.38 0.07 0.39 0.07 0.39 Oceania 0.08 0.41 0.07 0.38 0.11 0.50 0.07 0.51 Australia/nz 0.06 0.51 0.06 0.51 0.07 0.50 0.07 0.51 Melanesia 0.13 0.15 0.27 0.14 0.26 0.49 0.45 0.21 Micronesia 0.30 0.14 0.24 0.13 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.15 Polynesia 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.11 Globe 0.27 0.45 0.10 0.34 0.34 0.27 0.13 0.69 Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed September 2014). * The religion-specific Religious Diversity Index, denoted here with lower-case letters (rdi), is calculated by weighting the rdi for each country by that country s share of all adherents of the religion of interest in its region. That is, rdi R = (RDI1 a R1 ) + (RDI s a R2 ) + + (RDI N a RN ), where rdi R represents the religionspecific rdi for adherents of religion R (Christians, Muslims, non-religionists, etc.); RDI1, RDI2, RDI N represent the RDIs of each individual country; a R1, a R2, a RN represent each country s fractional share of the regional or global population of religionists R; and N is the total number of countries in the region or the world.

206 Johnson Christians Globally, Christians live in contexts of greater religious diversity in 2010 (rdi = 0.34) than in 1910 (rdi = 0.10).7 Nonetheless, the recent figure is still lower than the global figure for the world s population in 2010 (rdi = 0.45). Christians were concentrated in Europe and the Americas in 1910 but can now be found in Africa and Asia as well. In 1910, 95% of all Christians lived in countries that were 80% or more Christian (Johnson and Grim 2014). In 2010, this had fallen to just over 50%. Figure 10.1 shows that more than 70% of all Christians in 1910 lived in countries with a Religious Diversity Index (rdi) value of 0.1 or less.8 This had fallen to less than 20% by 2010, with the value range of 0.30 < rdi 0.40 having the greatest single proportion of Christians in 2010. Regional observations include a massive shift in over-all religious diversity in Europe, Northern America, and Oceania. In each case, Christians lived within very little religious diversity in 1910 and now live in significantly diverse contexts. At the same time, the situation in Africa and Asia is more complicated. In Africa, the religious diversity for Christians has increased in some regions and decreased in others. In many countries, conversions from tribal religion to Christianity over the century have greatly decreased religious diversity (for example, Angola was 83% ethnoreligionist in 1910 and 93% Christian in 2010). In Asia, Christians experienced increased diversity in Eastern Asia (rdi = 0.36 in 1910 to rdi = 0.81 in 2010) but decreased diversity (rdi = 0.29 in 1910 to rdi = 0.27 in 2010) where Christian populations have been declining through emigration. Muslims Unlike Christians, Muslims (as a whole) today live in less-religiously-diverse countries than in 1910. While they lived in countries more diverse (rdi = 0.34) than the global average (rdi = 0.27) in 1910, by 2010 they lived in countries less diverse (rdi = 0.27) than the global average (rdi = 0.45). Figure 10.2 shows that while less than 20% of all Muslims lived in countries with rdi values of 0.1 or less in 1910, this had increased to more than 30% by 2010. Forty percent of all Muslims lived in South and Central Asia in 2010 (Johnson and Grim 2013:19). South Asia is only slightly more religiously diverse over the century (rdi increasing from 0.36 in 1910 to 0.38 in 2010) but where Muslims live it has become less diverse (rdi falling from 0.33 in 1910 to 0.22 in 2010). At the same time, South-eastern Asia, home to another 14% of the world s Muslims in 2010, had also become less diverse (rdi for 7 rdi values give an indication of the over-all religious diversity of a population or area of interest. They do not, however, describe how residents of a country experience that religious diversity (or the lack thereof). For example, a country with a Christian percentage of 99.5% might have the same rdi (0.01, say) as one with a Christian percentage of 0.5%. Yet the lack of diversity will look very different depending on whether one is part of an overwhelming majority or a tiny minority. 8 This low rdi value can result from two different scenarios. For example, both Andorra and Angola had an rdi of 0.01 in 1910. But whereas Andorra was 99.6% Christian, Angola was only 0.6% Christian (and 99.4% ethnoreligionist). They both had the same rdi, but present vastly different contexts for Christians.

RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910 2010 207 Figure 10.1 Christians in the context of religious diversity (0.0 1.0), 1910 2010 Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed September 2014). Note: The labels on the graph above represent the upper end of the range of rdi values. That is, 0.1 represents values falling in the range 0.0 rdi i 0.1; 0.2 represents 0.1 < rdi i 0.2; 1.0 represents 0.9 < rdi i 1.0. Muslims dropping from 0.64 in 1910 to 0.40 in 2010). Part of the explanation of decreasing religious diversity for Muslims is the decline of non-muslim minorities in key countries such as Indonesia (the country with the most Muslims), which was 40% Muslim in 1910 and 79% Muslim in 2010. Migration patterns of Muslims (e.g., from Africa to Europe) are bringing Muslims into more religiously diverse regions. All European regions are more diverse in 2010 than in 1910 with the greatest change in Western Europe (rdi = 0.01 in 1910 to rd i = 0.51 in 2010).

208 Johnson Figure 10.2 Muslims in the context of religious diversity (0.0 1.0), 1910 2010 Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed September 2014). Note: The labels on the graph above represent the upper end of the range of rdi values. That is, 0.1 represents values falling in the range 0.0 rdi i 0.1; 0.2 represents 0.1 < rdi i 0.2; 1.0 represents 0.9 < rdi i 1.0. Non-religionists Non-religionists (including both agnostics and atheists) have seen the most profound shift in their religious contexts. In 1910, globally, they lived in countries rdi = 0.13 (rdi = 0.27 for world population) where in 2010 this had risen to rdi = 0.69 (more than the rdi = 0.45 average), the highest of any religious category. The explanation for this shift is fairly simple. In 1910, most non-religious people lived as small minorities in majority Christian countries (Europe and Northern America) whereas in 2010 the largest contingent lived in China, the world s most religiously diverse country. This shift is apparent in

RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910 2010 209 Figure 10.3 Non-religionists in the context of religious diversity (0.0 1.0), 1910 2010 Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed September 2014). Note: The labels on the graph above represent the upper end of the range of rdi values. That is, 0.1 represents values falling in the range 0.0 rdi i 0.1; 0.2 represents 0.1 < rdi i 0.2; 1.0 represents 0.9 < rdi i 1.0. Figure 10.3 below, where 80% of all non-religionists lived in countries rdi 0.10 in 1910 but over 60% in 2010 live in countries where the rdi was greater than 0.80. At the same time, there have been significant regional trends. While in most regions the non-religionists mirror changes in the religious diversity experienced by the general population, in some regions they now live in less religiously diverse countries than in 1910. For example, in South America, they went from rdi = 0.46 in 1910 to rdi = 0.20 in 2010. The

210 Johnson explanation in this case is that most lived in Uruguay in 1910, a religiously diverse country, but now appear in religiously less diverse (i.e., vast Christian majority) countries. In other regions, their fortune has gone in the opposite direction. In South-eastern Asia, while the general population has experienced decreasing religious diversity (rdi = 0.50 to 0.41), non-religionists have experienced increasing religious diversity (rdi = 0.26 to 0.64). Comparing Christians, Muslims, and Non-religionists In light of the trends found in each of these religions, the three can also be compared to each other. The overall trend is quite clear. Muslims today are living in less religious diversity than in 1910 (rdi = 0.34 dropping to 0.27) while Christians are living in more religious diversity (rdi = 0.10 rising to 0.34). But non-religionists clearly live in the most religiously diverse contexts (rdi = 0.13 rising to 0.69). One can also identify key areas of religious diversity. The most religiously diverse region for all three is Eastern Asia (not surprisingly, since this has the highest rdi). But there are important variations for each of the religions by region. For example, Christians in Africa live in more diversity (rdi = 0.41) than either Muslims (rdi = 0.31) or non-religionists (rdi = 0.34). But in Europe, Christians live in the least diverse situations (rdi = 0.34) with Muslims (rdi = 0.40) and non-religionists (rdi = 0.43) in more religiously diverse contexts. In Latin America, Muslims live in more religious diversity (rdi = 0.24) than non-religionists (rdi = 0.22) or Christians (rdi = 0.14). In South-eastern Asia, while religious diversity for the general population is rdi = 0.41, Christians live in less diversity (rdi = 0.28). Muslims, the majority religion, live in rdi = 0.40, and non-religionists live in the most diversity (rdi = 0.64). Conclusion The measurement of religious diversity for whole populations or for individual religions show much variation over time, between countries and regions, and between religions. While people around the world clearly live in more religiously diverse contexts today than they did 100 years ago, not everyone experiences the same degree of diversity. What impact might increasing religious diversity have on human relations? Studies have shown that people living in more religious or ethnic diversity are more likely to form friendships across religious and ethnic lines (Vanhoutte and Hooghe 2012). Consequently, increasing religious diversity affords religionists and non-religionists the opportunity for forging friendships. Tracing these trends provides a context for further studies of the effect of more (or less) religious diversity on religious (and non-religious) communities. Accordingly, the complex trends outlined above can be integrated into a growing understanding of the world s religious and non-religious populations.

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