UNITED NATIONS EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON RECENT AND FUTURE TRENDS IN FERTILITY Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat New York, 2-4 December 2009 Fertility Prospects in Israel: Ever Below Replacement Level? Sergio DellaPergola The S. Argov Chair in Israel-Diaspora Relations Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics The A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry The Hebrew University of Jerusalem sergioa@huji.ac.il
Israel's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 2.98 in 2008. In the 2009 HDI assessment Israel's ranked 27 th out of 182 countries. Israel's projected TFR was the highest among 38 countries with very high human development. A higher TFR obtained in only six additional countries ranked up to 100 th. Hence the lead question: ever below replacement level?
One of the crucial analytic issues is whether relatively high levels of fertility essentially reflect the failure to curb the birth rate or rather wanted children? Are relatively high fertility rates a transitional stage toward the unavoidable decline toward and below replacement or a societal feature bound to stay in the long run? We explain fertility patterns in the past in the light of socio-economic, demographic and cultural determinants that operated both at the individual and at the broader societal level.
We analyze fertility goals through different measures of attainment, intention and appropriateness, and outline public attitudes towards possible policy interventions aimed at affecting fertility in the future. We also question whether country population projections relying on a single set of demographic assumptions are appropriate for societies that, like Israel's, encompass several sub-populations with significantly different demographic patterns.
Source: Inglehart and Welzel, 2005. WHERE IS ISRAEL?
Total fertility rates, by religion groups Israel, 1955-2008 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Total Israel Jews Muslims Christians Druse Not classified 3 2 1 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics.
a. Age 450 Total fertility rates, Jews and Muslims Israel, by age, 1960-2008, and by district, 1996-2008 450 400 400 350 350 300 250 200 150 Up to 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ 300 250 200 150 Up to 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ 100 100 50 50 0 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2006-08 Jews b. District 11.0 0 11.0 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2006-08 Muslims 10.0 10.0 9.0 Jews total 9.0 Moslems total 8.0 J Jerusalem 8.0 M Jerusalem 7.0 J Northern J Haifa 7.0 M Northern M Haifa 6.0 J Central 6.0 M Central 5.0 4.0 J Tel Aviv J Southern J West Bank 5.0 4.0 M Tel Aviv M Southern 3.0 J Tel Aviv-Yafo city 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. Jews 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Muslims
TFR of Israel born, post-secondary education attained, and labor force participation Jewish women, Israel, 1955-2005 5 80 4 70 60 Israel Native Jews % Ed13+ 25-34 % LabF 18-34 3 50 2 40 30 Percent 1 20 10 0 1955-9 1960-4 1965-9 1970-4 1975-9 1980-4 1985-9 1990-4 1995-9 2000-4 2005 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. 0
Total fertility rates among Jews Israel, Russia and the United States, 1947-2008 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 Israel Jews total Israel Jews born Eur-Am Israel born Israel father b. Eur-Am Russia Jews Russia total pop. U.S. Jews U.S. total pop. 1.00 0.50 0.00 1947-51 1952-56 1957-61 1962-66 1967-71 1972-76 1977-81 1982-86 1987-91 1992-96 1997-01 2002-06 2007-08 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics; United Nations, Population Division (2008); DellaPergola, 2009; Tolts, 2008
10 Total fertility rates among Muslims and Christians in Israel, Palestinian Territory and neighboring countries 1955-2010 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Israel Moslems Israel Christians Palestinian Territory Lebanon Syria Jordan Saudi Arabia Egypt 2 1 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics; United Nations, Population Division (2008).
Percent satisfied with life, by selected population characteristics Israel, 2002-2007 100 100 Total Total 90 Jews and others 90 Ultra-orthodox Thereof Jews Religious Arabs and others Traditional 80 Immigrated 1990+ 80 Non religious 70 70 60 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Population group Religiosity, Jews 100 100 Total Total 20-24 90 25-44 90 Very religious 45-64 Religious 65-74 Not so religious 80 75+ 80 Not religious 70 70 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Age 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Religiosity, Arabs 100 100 Total Total 90 Did not study 90 Up to 2000 Studied, no diploma 2001-4000 High school matriculation 80 Post secondary Academic degree 80 4001+ 70 70 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Education * 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Income
Family Size Preferences of Married Jewish Women Israel, 1974-2005 1988 b 2005 c Number of children 1974-75 a Total Total Total Without Haredim d Currently born 2.5 2.5 2.3 Personally intended 3.8 3.5 4.1 3.5 Most appropriate for an Israeli family of social status same as respondent s 3.4 4.0 3.8 Ideal for an Israeli family 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.6 a Source: Goldscheider and Friedlander (1986). b Source: Kupinsky (1992b). c Source: Survey of Attitudes and Behaviors Concerning Family Size among Israel s Jewish Population, 2005. d Very religious, residentially concentrated.
ACTUAL AND INTENDED PARITY TRANSITIONS ISRAEL, MARRIED JEWS, 2005 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 Parity transition Women actual Men actual Women intended Men intended
NUMBER OF INTENDED a VS. APPROPRIATE b CHILDREN AMONG CURRENTLY MARRIED c JEWS - ISRAEL, 2005 Gender and age Number of Intended vs. Appropriate Children Same Different Total N 0-2 d 3 d 4 d 5+ d I<A e I>A f Women, 25-45 12 25 11 16 8 28 100 975 Men, 25-50 14 26 11 11 15 22 100 481 Women % difference -14-4 = +45-47 +27 = a. Sum of total number of children born so far plus total additional children expected. b. Number of children most appropriate for family with standard of living same as respondent s. c. Including non-married persons in stable couple relations. d. Same number of children Intended and Appropriate. e. Number of children Appropriate 3, 4, or 5, and fewer children Intended. f. Number of children Appropriate 2, 3, or 4, and more children Intended. Source: Survey of Attitudes and Behaviors Concerning Family Size among Israel s Jewish Population, 2005
Measures of fertility by self-assessed religiosity Currently married Jews, Israel, 2005 Current children Intended children Religiosity selfassessment a Women Men Women Men Total 2.54 2.45 4.11 3.74 Religious end 4.69 4.24 8.76 8.77 Religious 3.78 (3.05) b 7.08 6.94 Religious orientation 3.21 3.74 5.37 5.04 Intermediate 2.77 2.94 3.99 4.23 Secular orientation 2.27 2.36 3.53 3.64 Secular 1.98 2.05 3.07 3.04 Secular end 1.72 2.00 2.82 2.66 a. Cross-classification of normative and behavioral self assessments (reduction of 4 x 4 table). b. Less than 20 cases. Source: Survey of Attitudes and Behaviors Concerning Family Size among Israel s Jewish Population 2005
Logistic regression odd ratios for selected characteristics of Jewish couples with consistent intended and appropriate n. of children Israel, 2005 5.000 100.000 4.500 4.000 Odds Ratios 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 24-29 30-34 35-39 40+ Odds Ratios (Log Scale) 10.000 1.000 0.100 Secular end Secular orientation Intermediate Religious orientation Religious end 0.500 0.000 0-2 3 4 5+ 0.010 0-2 3 4 5+ Intended & Appropriate Children Intended & Appropriate Children Age Religiosity 2.000 1.800 1.400 1.600 1.200 1.400 Odds Ratios 1.200 1.000 0.800 0.600 <12 12 13-16 17+ Odds Ratios (Log Scale) 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse 0.400 0.200 0.200 0.000 0.000 0-2 3 4 5+ 0-2 3 4 5+ Intended & Appropriate Children Intended & Appropriate Children Education Family economic situation Source: Survey of Attitudes and Behaviors Concerning Family Size among Israel s Jewish Population, 2005
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF INCONSISTENCIES: INTENDED > APPROPRIATE TOTAL CHILDREN N. of children appropriate to repondent s social status N. of children actually intended by respondent N. of children actually intended by respondent N. of children appropriate to repondent s social status Wish to out-perform appropriate social norm, investing more of own resources Fear to out-perform appropriate social norm, lacking necessary own resources
Logistic regression odd ratios for selected characteristics of Jewish couples with inconsistent intended and appropriate n. of children Israel, 2005 12 1.6 11 10 1.4 9 1.2 8 Odd Ratios 7 6 5 4 Intended LOWER than Appropriate Intended HIGHER than Appropriate Odd Ratios 1 0.8 0.6 Intended LOWER than Appropriate Intended HIGHER than Appropriate 3 0.4 2 1 0.2 0 24-29 30-34 35-39 40+ Age 0 Secular end Secular orientation Intermediate Religious orientation Religiosity Religious end 2 9 1.8 8 1.6 7 1.4 6 Odd Ratios 1.2 1 0.8 Intended LOWER than Appropriate Intended HIGHER than Appropriate Odd Ratios 5 4 Intended LOWER than Appropriate Intended HIGHER than Appropriate 3 0.6 2 0.4 0.2 1 0 <12 12 13-16 17+ Education 0 Much better than others Somewhat better Same+don t know Somewhat worse Much worse Family's economic situation Source: Survey of Attitudes and Behaviors Concerning Family Size among Israel s Jewish Population, 2005
DIRECT AND INDIRECT SOCIETAL ROLES OF VALUES AND NORMS AFFECTING FAMILY AND REPRODUCTION IN ISRAEL Desirability History and society Social values and norms: Family and reproduction Legislative, executive, judiciary system Social policies: Family and reproduction Demographic trends: Family and reproduction Feasibility
Main factor affecting having one additional child above number intended Currently married Jewish women, Israel, 2005 Factors Number of Intended vs. Appropriate Children Same Different Total 0-2 3 4 5+ I<A I>A Response rate, % 47 82 80 70 70 83 78 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Early childhood care 44 27 24 11 33 31 28 Child education 10 9 8 7 10 14 10 Woman employment 17 22 16 14 19 15 18 Housing 10 13 19 11 10 18 14 Money transfers 2 3 2 16 2 6 5 Tax exemptions 7 6 7 5 0 4 5 Fertility treatment 1 1 4 6 4 2 3 Good to children 8 19 20 30 23 10 17 Source: Survey of Attitudes and Behaviors Concerning Family Size among Israel s Jewish Population, 2005
Our survey of fertility trends in Israel, beyond measurement, has focused on the cultural and socioeconomic context and causality of family formation. Two main conclusions emerge one of method and one of substance.
Israeli society includes population groups less prone to social change, whose fertility is high and whose share of total population consequently tends to grow. These groups swallow the weighted average of national fertility levels and slow down fertility decline. The analytic imperative is not to consider Israel society as one demographic bloc but a conglomerate of different sub-populations. In population projections, after disaggregating society into its components, separate paths of change need to be considered. Different schedules should be developed for different sub-populations later reconstituting the total.
The evidence reviewed points to a conservative pattern of family formation in spite of substantial societal change at the micro- and macro-level. Children are still a much wanted good. While often under stress, Israeli society and its major sub-populations display resilience. Under the hopefully realistic assumption that no major security-related disruption would occur, the unique interplay of ideational and social structural options and constraints in Israel likely leads to continuing relatively high and stable fertility levels in the foreseeable future.