Support, Experience and Intentionality: 2015-16 Australian Church Planting Study Submitted to: Geneva Push Research performed by LifeWay Research 1
Preface Issachar. It s one of the lesser known names in the scriptures. Of specific interest for this report is a reference in 1 Chronicles 12:32 to the Issacharites. The passage specifically says about these people,... the Issacharites, who understood the times and knew what Israel should do. It s a short little statement, but it s a powerful one. They were known, throughout all of history, for their awareness of their times, and their response with appropriate behavior in light of their times. Increasing this awareness is what we are trying to accomplish in this report. Church planting matters. In fact, it matters greatly. First of all the church matters because it s Christ s bride. Beyond that, though, church planting specifically matters because the church is God s intended vehicle to advance the gospel and grow believers into the image of Jesus. So church planting matters, but beyond the fact that it matters, it s important that we know what God is doing in extending the gospel through church planting. What s happening? Are we succeeding? What trends and movements are shaping church planting? The survey results you see in this report represent the largest, most thorough survey done yet on church planting in Australia (The report for the United States is available at www.newchurches. com). The survey asked 728 leaders of new church works (including church plants, revitalizations, mergers and new sites) to share their experience in a 30 minute online survey across many different denominations and church planting networks. Over 140 pastors and new church work leaders completed the survey. This report focuses on the 110 new church works (mostly church plants, but also new sites and plant restarts) started in 2000 or later and are still operating today. The data we collected can be sliced and diced in many different ways. But, the most pressing concerns for those leading church plant efforts include: weekly worship attendance, new commitments to Christ, reaching the unchurched and financial self-sustainability. These metrics serve as our guideposts in understanding the underlying patterns for the most successful church plants and thus the movement of God through church planting in Australia. Some may argue whether other metrics are better, and in some church planting models, these may not all apply. We think there is something here for everyone, no matter their cultural, denominational or theological models of church planting. God is at work through church plants all over Australia. It is an exciting time. We pray we can all see the fingerprints of our Lord in this report, take note of what He alone is doing and how we can follow Him in that work. Under His grace and in His service, Dr. Ed Stetzer, President, LifeWay Research 2
Acknowledgments The 2015-16 Australian Church Planting Study would not have been possible without the partnership and sponsorship of Geneva Push. The study involved many participants, researchers and project managers. LifeWay Research executive director Dr. Ed Stetzer provided general oversight and subject matter expertise. Dr. Phillip Connor, independent consultant for LifeWay Research managed the project and was the lead researcher. LifeWay Research vice president Scott McConnell provided methodological oversight. Lizette Beard, project manager at LifeWay Research oversaw relationships between participating and sponsoring denominations/networks. Scott Sanders, Executive Director of Geneva Push, recruited the partnering Australian organizations and facilitated the systematic recruitment of planter participation with the help of Tom Pattison. Data administrators and church planting leadership from all participating and sponsoring denominations contributed to the project, both in providing contact data and consulting with LifeWay Research on the survey tool. Casey Oliver, statistician at LifeWay Research prepared the online survey tools, monitored completion of surveys, ran much of the analysis, prepared charts and number checked research products. Kevin Walker, research assistant, prepared reports and number checked findings. 3
Summary New Australian church works that have supportive systems, experienced leaders and intentional ministries are more likely to have higher weekly worship attendance, higher annual commitments to Christ, be a quarter or more unchurched congregation and be financially self-sufficient. These findings are part of a new study by LifeWay Research and key partner Geneva Push. The study is based on a survey of 110 church starting leaders between October 2015 and February 2016. New church works surveyed that have supportive systems such as conducting a membership class for new members and enlisting prayer partners generally have higher weekly worship attendance. New church works that are funded by personal networks of church planters as well as church plants that finance other church plants are more likely to be a quarter or more unchurched congregation. New church works that have financial accounting help from their denomination are associated with a higher likelihood of financial self-sufficiency. New church works surveyed with experienced leaders such as previously being part of a church planting staff team have higher weekly worship attendance. Similarly, new church works with church planters having worked previously as a bi-vocational pastor are more likely to see a greater number of new commitments to Christ. Lastly, new church works whose church planters expectations of the church planting experience met reality have higher weekly worship attendance. Finally, new church works who are intentional in offering a variety of ministries such as prayer walking, ministry evangelism (e.g., food banks, clothing, shelters, drug/alcohol recovery) and community service projects meeting practical needs are more likely to be a quarter or more unchurched congregation. 4
Metrics of New Church Work Success in Australia The average number of weekly worship attendees in Australian new church works surveyed ranges from 38 in the first year to about 70 by year four. As a matter of perspective, the average weekly worship attendance of new church works surveyed in Australia is very similar to church plants surveyed in Canada according to a recent 2015 study. While the average number of people attending worship services in church plants surveyed in the United States seems to be much higher than new church works surveyed in Australia, the more evangelical context of the United States probably explains this difference. R 2 of average weekly worship attendance by year and by core team size and first worship attendance Worship Year Core Team Size First Worship Service Attendance Attendance Year 1 0.37 0.34 Attendance Year 2 0.36 0.23 Attendance Year 3 0.23 0.17 Attendance Year 4 0.07 0.10 New commitments to Christ, on average, appear to be lower in Australia compared with the United States. The annual average for the number of new commitments to Christ in new church works surveyed is under 5 for the first few years in Australia while it is well above 10 in the United States. By means of another comparison, the average annual number of new commitments to Christ in Canada is slightly higher than in Australia, slightly below ten for each of the first few years. It should be noted that two of the consistent factors positively associated with higher worship attendance, unsurprisingly, are the size of the core team and the attendance at the first worship service. This relationship between beginning size and eventual size certainly decreases by year four, but the core team size still explains about 7% and first worship service attendance explains about 10% of the variability in average attendance in year 4. 5
Similarly, the share of congregants in new church works in Australia surveyed who are a quarter or more unchurched (55%) seems to be lower than both the United States (69%) and Canada (61%). Unfortunately, the design of the Canadian and American church planting surveys do not allow for exactly equal comparisons when it comes to self-sufficiency. Nonetheless, it appears that the rate of financial self-sufficiency in Australian new church works surveyed appears to be somewhere between the self-sufficiency rate in Canada and the United States. By year five, about half of new church works surveyed in Australia were financially self-sufficient. These American and Canadian comparisons with Australian new church works surveyed are not meant to be discouraging, but give a realistic picture of the trends for new church work metrics between the three national contexts. The Australian religious climate is historically different than the U.S. And although some may say that the Australian context is more similar to Canada when it comes to new church works, it is still not exact. It is possible, based on these metric comparisons, that the lift-off for new church works in Australia is sometimes slower, takes more perseverance and is not yet at the multiplication level occurring in the United States. 6
Brief Methodology Several Australian denominations and church planting networks participated in the study. Lists of church plants and church planters were provided to LifeWay Research for contact. Findings represent church plants, new church sites and church plant restarts started in 2000 or later and still existing today, leaving 110 churches for analysis. Factors associated with new church work success were determined by multivariate regression analysis statistically significant factors after controlling for church demographics, denomination/church planting network, state, church planter characteristics and other new church work characteristics. Two of the common sources of error in survey research are sampling error and non-response error. In this study, all new church works provided by denominations and church planting networks were invited to participate. Some denominations and networks were unwilling to participate in this study (though a complete list of missing groups has not been compiled); thus, not allowing the study to have a complete picture of new church works in Australia. Nonetheless, this was a census with no error introduced by sample selection among participating denominations and networks. While this survey had the highest number of participating new church works ever to complete a survey that we know of in Australia, the response rate was typical of many surveys today (about 15%). No quantitative measurements of all new church works started since 2000 exist with which to compare these respondents. Consequently, it is uncertain how representative this survey is of new church works started since 2000. However, great care was taken at every step of the process to eliminate systematic response bias wherever possible. The full methodology and limitations of the study can be found at the end of this report. With a small number of churches to analyze, findings are limited to the most consistent patterns across most new church works involved in the survey. 7
Support A variety of support systems, both for church members and provisions from outside of the new church works by individuals and church planting organizations seem to be associated with more successful church plants. New church works surveyed that conduct a membership class for new members generally have higher weekly worship attendance. In fact, Australian new church works that have a member class consistently have a third to more than half higher attendance compared with those new church works without a membership class. New church works enlisting prayer partners to pray also seem to have higher weekly worship attendance. Although the attendance difference is not as great as for those new church works with a members class, there is generally a 10 person difference in the average weekly worship attendance between new church works with and without prayer partners. 8
New church works that have financial accounting help from their denomination are associated with a higher likelihood of financial self-sufficiency. More specifically, the difference among new church works surveyed reaching financial self-sufficiency within 5 years is about 10 percentage points. New church works that are funded directly from the church s pastor or staff as well as new church works that finance other church plants are more likely to be a quarter or more unchurched congregation. In fact, the percentage difference is quite large (47% to 67%) among new church works that are funded directly from the church s pastor or staff. Experience New church works surveyed with experienced leaders are more successful by several measures. A church planting pastor who was previously part of a church planting staff team is associated with a higher average weekly worship attendance. This difference is not substantially great until years three and four where new church works with an experienced pastor have more than 10 additional worship attendees compared to new church works without an experienced church planter. 9
Similarly, new church works with church planters having worked previously as a bi-vocational pastor are more likely to see a greater number of new commitments to Christ. Again, this difference is not seen until a few years later. More specifically, in year three the average annual number of new commitments to Christ is about double among new church works with church planters having worked previously as a bi-vocational pastor. unchurched when considering their use of prayer walking. Lastly, new church works whose church planters expectations of the church planting experience met reality have higher weekly worship attendance. About a third more people are in weekly worship among new church works when expectations met reality. Similarly, new church works with ministry evangelism (e.g., food banks, clothing, shelters, drug/ alcohol recovery) and community service projects meeting practical needs are associated with a quarter or more unchurched congregation. Intentionality New church works who are intentional in offering a variety of ministries such as prayer meeting or walking neighbourhood throughout the duration of the new church work are more likely to be a quarter or more unchurched congregation. About 10 percentage points separate the share of new church works who are a quarter or more 10
Methodology Overview In 2015, Dr. Ed Stetzer and the LifeWay Research team invited several denominations and new church planting networks in the United States, Canada and Australia to take part in an expansive study measuring the health and success of new church works such as church plants, revitalizations, mergers and new church sites. Geneva Push took the lead in championing this study in Australia with cooperation from many denominations and church planting networks. The primary goal of the project was to clearly identify factors associated with higher worship attendance, new commitments to Jesus Christ, reaching the unchurched, becoming financially self-sufficient and the multiplication of new church works soon after the new church work was started. (Due to the low number of responses, no statistically significant findings for church multiplication were possible.) 11
Developing the Survey Tool and Fielding the Survey The development of the questionnaire closely followed the content of the 2007 U.S. Church Planting Study done by the Center for Missional Research at the North American Mission Board. The questionnaire for the main survey was developed by Dr. Phillip Connor, researcher for the 2007 study, along with expertise from Lizette Beard, Scott McConnell and Ed Stetzer. Feedback to the questionnaire on items related to the Australian context was provided by Scott Sanders (Executive Director Geneva Push), Andrew Heard (President of FIEC, church planter, Geneva Push director), John Bellamy (senior researcher for NCLS, Anglicare researcher) and Ben Thow (Baptist church planter, simple church planter, CROSSVIEW member) Major differences from the 2007 U.S. questionnaire were 1) changing baptisms to new commitments to Christ, 2) a greater assortment of choices and rankings for church models, 3) greater number of questions about small groups, church demographics, pastor demographics and starting additional new church works and 4) uniquely Australian demographic categories for ethnicity. Unlike the 2007 study, this study did not seek to answer questions surrounding survivability. The questionnaire was available in English only. The questionnaire was fielded October 2015 through February 2016 as an online survey. Pastors of known new church works were emailed invitations to complete the survey. This list of pastors and churches were provided by participating organizations and included both new church works who had closed and continued to operate at present. Each pastor/church was contacted five times by email to complete the survey. If the survey was not completed after these invitations, the pastor/ church was contacted by phone. With 728 potential contacts to respond to the survey, 110 completed surveys could be used for analysis more than a 15% response rate. This response rate is on par with many email invitation surveys. Findings Findings provided in this report restrict the analysis to survey respondents who started churches in 2000 or later, continue to exist today and were started as new church plants, church plant restarts or new church sites. 1 A statistical technique called multivariate regression analysis was used to determine what factors were significantly related to a higher number of new commitments to Christ, a congregation consisting of majority unchurched and being financially self-sufficient within five years of being planted and having planted. All regression analyses controlled for church organization, province, basic church composition (education, race and ethnicity composition, age breakdown, immigrant composition) and pastor characteristics (education, race and ethnicity, age, marital status). Significant factors are considered important and consistently true across all new church works no matter their location, church composition or planter characteristics. Project limitations No standard demographics across all new church works in Australia were available for comparison to this 2015-2016 study. Consequently, it is uncertain how representative this survey is of new church works started since 2000. However, the bulk of major organizations starting new church works in Australia participated in the study, providing a high level of certainty that the findings represent a wide approach to starting new works. Nonetheless, few closed works responded to the survey, indicating that the survey data leans more toward churches that continue to exist today. It is also suspected that non-english speaking congregations are underrepresented. These data limitations can be muted by focusing analysis on the internal relationships of factors associated with a healthy and a successful new church work (net of other factors) rather than focusing on actual attendance or commitment rates alone. Readers are encouraged to focus on general themes rather than precise differences in numbers. 1 Comparisons to the United States and Canada in this report are not exactly comparable. The U.S. findings do not include church plant restarts or new church sites, but only church plants. Moreover, the U.S. findings represent church plants started 2008 or later, not 2005 or later like in Canada or 2000 and later used in this Australian report. 12
Appendix: What do the new works and church planters surveyed look like? The following charts describe the new church works and church planters surveyed in the study. It is unknown whether church planters responding to the survey represent the general population of new church works in Australia. No such census of new church works has taken place. Thus, the description below is meant to show the shape and activities of new church works included in the survey, not to provide a representative view of all recent Australian new church works. Denominational breakdown Facilities 13
Promotion Finances States and territories Year begun 14
Worship styles Cross-cultural or multi-ethnic 15
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