Pastors Views on the Economy s Impact 2018 Survey of Protestant Pastors
2 Methodology The phone survey of 1,000 Protestant pastors was conducted August 29 September 11, 2018 The calling list was a stratified random sample, drawn from a list of all Protestant churches. Quotas were used for church size Each interview was conducted with the senior pastor, minister or priest of the church called Responses were weighted by region to more accurately reflect the population The completed sample is 1,000 surveys The sample provides 95% confidence that the sampling error does not exceed +3.2% Margins of error are higher in sub-groups
3 Methodology Continued Comparisons are also made to the following telephone surveys using the same methodology: 1,002 pastors conducted November 5-12, 2009 1,000 pastors conducted March 1-9, 2010 1,000 pastors conducted October 7-14, 2010 1,002 pastors conducted January 17-27, 2011 1,000 pastors conducted May 18-25, 2011 1,000 pastors conducted May, 2012 1,000 pastors conducted September 11-18, 2014 1,000 pastors conducted January 8-22, 2016
Survey Responses
45% of pastors say the current economy is having a positive impact on their church 100% Among Protestant Pastors 5 80% 60% 40% 32% 35% 20% 12% 13% 0% 2% Very negatively Somewhat negatively Somewhat positively Very positively The economy is having no impact on my church Not sure 6% Q: How is the current economy impacting your church? n=1,000
100% Fewer pastors (14%) report the economy negatively impacting their church than in any previous survey Among Protestant Pastors 6 Very negatively Somewhat negatively No impact Somewhat positively Very positively 80% 66% 60% 57% 54% 59% 58% 56% 50% 46% 45% 40% 20% 0% 33% 35% 30% 33% 32% 27% 25% 24% 25% 23% 16% 14% 13% 12% 13% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% 9% 10% 11% 7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% Nov 2009 Mar 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 May 2012 Sep 2014 Jan 2016 Sep 2017 Sep 2018 Not sure - (6% Sep 2018, 3% Jan 2016, 2% Sep 2014 and Sep 2017, 1% all other surveys) Q: How is the current economy impacting your church?
26% say that they expect last year s tax reform to positively impact their church s finances 100% Among Protestant Pastors 7 80% 60% 49% 40% 20% 0% 3% Very negatively 10% Somewhat negatively 20% Somewhat positively 6% Very positively I do not expect tax reform to impact my church 13% Not sure Q: How do you expect last year s tax reform to impact your church s finances? n=1,000
29% say that their offerings since the beginning of 2018 have been higher than budgeted 100% Among Protestant Pastors 8 80% 60% 48% 40% 29% 20% 19% 4% 0% Higher than budgeted Lower than budgeted About what we budgeted Not sure Q: Since the beginning of 2018, have your offerings been n=1,000
9 42% say that their offerings for 2018 have been above 2017 100% Among Protestant Pastors 80% 60% 40% 42% 37% 20% 15% 6% 0% Above 2017's offerings Below 2017's offerings The same as 2017's offerings Not sure Q: Compared to your calendar year 2017 offerings, have your total offerings so far for 2018 been n=1,000
Approximately what percentage are your calendar year 2018 offerings above or below 2017 s offerings? Among Protestant Pastors 10 Below by 25 or more Below by 10-24 Below by 1-9 3% 4% 8% Same as 2017 41% Above by 1-9 Above by 10-24 16% 18% Above by 25 or more Not sure 5% 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q: Approximately what percentage are your calendar year 2018 offerings above or below 2017 s offerings? n=911
11 Significant Differences Pastor Ethnicity Age Education Level Self-identified Evangelical/Mainline Church Region Denomination Average Attendance
12 Significant Statistical Differences Comparisons were made to determine if there are any significant statistical differences among the church s attendance and region, the pastor s gender, age and ethnicity. Attendance Region Pastor s Gender Pastor s Age Pastor s Ethnicity 0-49 Northeast Male 18-44 White 50-99 Midwest Female 45-54 African- American 100-249 South 55-64 Other Ethnicities 250+ West 65+ Note: Region is defined by US Census regions
13 Significant Statistical Differences Comparisons were also made to determine if there are any significant statistical differences among education level, the self-identified Evangelical or Mainline, and denomination. Education Level Self-Identified Denomination No College Degree Evangelical Baptist Bachelor s Degree Mainline Lutheran Methodist Pentecostal Presbyterian/ Reformed Christian/Church of Christ
How is the current economy impacting your church? Pastors of churches with attendance of 100-249 (50%) and 250+ (52%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than those with attendance of 0-49 (34%) Pastors in the South (52%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than those in the Northeast (33%) and Midwest (38%) Male pastors are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than Females (50% v. 23%) Pastors age 55-64 (48%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than pastors age 18-44 (39%) African-American pastors (36%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat negatively than White pastors (13%) Pastors with no college degree (52%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than those with a Master s degree (43%) Baptists (54%) and Pentecostals (64%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than Lutherans (38%), Methodists (31%), and Presbyterian/Reformed (35%) 14
How do you expect last year s tax reform to impact your church s finances? Pastors of churches with attendance of 100-249 (29%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than those with attendance of 0-49 (19%) Pastors in the Northeast (15%) and Midwest (18%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat negatively than those in the South (8%) Male pastors are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than Females (29% v. 12%) Pastors age 55-64 (28%) and 65+ (30%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than pastors age 18-44 (20%) African-American pastors (38%) and pastors of Other Ethnicities (23%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat negatively than White pastors (11%) Pastors with no college degree (34%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than those with a Master s degree (23%) Evangelical pastors are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than Mainline pastors (31% v. 22%) Baptists (36%) and Pentecostals (37%) are more likely to select Very or somewhat positively than Lutherans (21%), Methodists (17%), and Presbyterian/Reformed (13%) 15
16 Since the beginning of 2018, have your offerings been Pastors of churches with attendance of 100-249 (32%) and 250+ (36%) are more likely to select Higher than budgeted than those with attendance of 0-49 (21%) Pastors in the South (35%) are more likely to select Higher than budgeted than those in the Northeast (23%) and Midwest (23%) Male pastors are more likely to select Higher than budgeted than Females (32% v. 18%) White pastors (29%) are more likely to select Higher than budgeted than African-American pastors (14%) Pastors with a Master s degree (23%) or a Doctoral degree (21%) are more likely to select Higher than budgeted than those with a Bachelor s degree (11%) Baptists (39%) and Pentecostals (40%) are more likely to select Higher than budgeted than Lutherans (21%), Methodists (16%), and Presbyterian/Reformed (21%)
Compared to your calendar year 2017 offerings, have your total offerings so far for 2018 been Pastors of churches with attendance of 100-249 (46%) and 250+ (57%) are more likely to select Above 2017 s offerings than those with attendance of 0-49 (29%) and 50-99 (39%) Pastors in the South (48%) are more likely to select Above 2017 s offerings than those in the Midwest (33%) Male pastors are more likely to select Above 2017 s offerings than Females (45% v. 26%) African-American pastors are the most likely to select Below 2017 s offerings (42%) Pastors with a Master s degree (40%) are more likely to select The same as 2017 s offerings than those with a Bachelor s degree (32%) Baptists (50%) and Pentecostals (54%) are more likely to select Above 2017 s offerings than Lutherans (33%), Methodists (31%), and Presbyterian/Reformed (34%) 17
Pastors Views on the Economy s Impact 2018 Survey of Protestant Pastors