Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

Relationships and Rivalries: Assessing Al-Qaeda s Affiliate Network IHS Jane s Consulting In July 2010, the Security and Military Intelligence Consulting Practice of IHS Jane s was commissioned by a U.S. based intelligence client to produce a series of articles focused on Al- Qaeda s Affiliate Network Supplement Focus IHS Jane s brought together a range of Al-Qaeda experts and specialists to examine the factors and dynamics shaping Al-Qaeda s relationships with local affiliate groups Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

Overview Relations with Al-Qaeda s Senior Leadership (AQSL) The Saudi Campaign, 2003-2006 Resurgence in Yemen, 2009 The Christmas Day 2009 attack Current Threat and Future Trajectory Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5

Relations with AQSL Close connections Since its inception, AQAP has been the regional AQ affiliate with the closest relations to AQSL This holds especially true for the original Saudi Arabian AQAP which operated under this name from 2003 to 2006 No regional affiliate has since developed such close relations with AQSL Aims Identical to those of Bin Laden, focusing on Saudi Arabia and undermining the Saud family s legitimacy AQAP militants seen in footage released by the Al-Malahem media organization Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6

The Saudi Campaign, 2003 2006 Drivers Offensive in Saudi Arabia a logical component of Al-Qaeda s transnational strategy Risks Failure might lead to the collapse of support networks (recruits and finances) Collapse Attacks on Muslims led to the erosion of public support and operational decline in the Kingdom One of three compounds attacked in Riyadh on 12 May 2003 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7

Resurgence in Yemen Merger February 2009: merger of Saudi and Yemeni jihadists under AQAP banner Now a distinct group with a close relationship with AQSL Destabilizing Saudi Arabia Professed aim is to destabilize Saudi Arabia, attempting to perpetrate attacks in the Kingdom since 2009 A Fresh Nuance Nasir Al-Wuhayshi (alias Abu Basir), leader of AQAP The destabilization of Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh AQAP outspoken on the illegitimacy of the Yemeni state Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8

The Christmas Day 2009 Attack Incident Attempt to bomb Northwest Airlines Flight 253 in Detroit on 25 December 2009 Marked AQAP s emergence as an important international threat Impact Important propaganda coup for AQSL at a time when under sustained pressure in Pakistan Implications Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab Unclear whether AQAP can repeat such an attack Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9

Current Threat and Future Trajectory Status Despite some suggestions to the contrary, for the time being AQSL remains a more important threat than AQAP Safe Haven Due to internal strife and government ambivalence, Yemen might become the long-term refuge AQSL has looked for in recent years as a potential alternative to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan Focus on Yemen AQAP will first and foremost remain focused on Yemen, but attempts to attack western interests outside of the Gulf region cannot be ruled out AQAP deputy leader Said al- Shihri (alias Abu Sufyan al- Azdi) Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10

Overview AQI: Down, but not out Causes for AQI s resurgence Relations with Al-Qaeda s Senior Leadership Zarqawi and AQSL Zarqawi s Heirs New Strategies Future Trajectory Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12

Down, but not out Significant threat AQI remains the most dangerous terrorist threat to the stability of Iraq Coordinated attacks On 25 August 2010, AQI perpetrated a wave of coordinated attacks in 13 cities across Iraq New escalation? Doubts remain as to whether this activity might lead to a new escalation of violence A collapsed building at the site of a bombing in Baghdad on 25 August 2010. 50 people were killed in a series of attacks in 13 cities across Iraq Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13

Causes for AQI s resurgence Troop Withdrawal U.S. troop withdrawal has provided AQI with the space to rebuild Political Limbo Political limbo in Baghdad is detrimental to an orderly functioning of Iraq s security services Counter-terrorism efforts Iraqi counter-terrorism efforts continue to rely heavily on U.S. support Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14

Relations with Al-Qaeda s Senior Leadership (AQSL) Setbacks AQI has suffered numerous setbacks since 2007 Leadership losses Most importantly, the loss of its leaders Abu Ayyub al-masri and Abu Omar al-baghdadi on 18 April 2010 Propaganda coup A re-emerging AQI would be an important propaganda coup for AQSL This photo released by the U.S. military in June 2006 shows Abu Ayyub al-masri, one of two AQI leaders killed in April 2010 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15

Zarqawi and AQSL Re-branding In October 2004, Abu Musab al-zarqawi renamed his organization AQI Independent However, Zarqawi did not submit to AQSL command and control AQI remained an independent organization rather than an Al-Qaeda affiliate Mixed results The change of name evoked the perception that Al-Qaeda was an organization of truly global reach Equally, Zarqawi s indiscriminate use of violence tainted AQI s and AQSL s image Abu Musab al-zarqawi was killed in a U.S. air strike on 7 June 2006 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16

Zarqawi s Heirs Dual leadership After Zarqawi s death, AQI chose a dual leadership model Increasing AQSL influence Under the new head of AQI, Abu Ayyub al-masri, AQSL s influence on AQI grew Losing ground The site of a joint U.S. and Iraqi forces raid in April 2010 that led to the death of AQI leaders Abu Ayyub and Abu Omar But from early 2007, AQI quickly lost ground in Iraq Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17

New Strategies High-profile terrorism AQI changed from an insurgency bent on controlling territory to a group focused on high-profile terrorism Baghdad focus String of attacks mainly in Baghdad since August 2009 Still capable Attacks on 25 August 2010 a reminder of AQI s capabilities Two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) targeted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Finance in Baghdad on 19 August 2009, killing some 120 people Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18

Future Trajectory Under pressure AQI remains under pressure, its communication with AQSL is curtailed Iraqi state Future of AQI depends on the trajectory of the current Iraqi state Remaining dangerous In any scenario, AQI will remain a force to be reckoned with for years The scene outside the Iraqi Ministry of Justice following an SVBIED attack on 25 October 2009. 150 people were killed in two SVBIED explosions that day Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19

Shabab: Origins Founded in 2003, and initially led by Aden Hashi Farah Ayro. June 2006: instrumental in bringing the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) to power. December 2006: Ethiopia s intervention sees Shabab emerge as an independent group leading the Islamist insurgency. Currently led by Ahmad Abdi Aw Muhammad Godane alias Abu Zubayr. Ayro Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22

Shabab: Aims & Objectives Create an Islamist state in Somalia governed according to the group s radical interpretation of sharia. Expel all foreign forces (i.e. AMISOM). Overthrow President Ahmed & the TFG. Purge Somalia of un-islamic practices. Geographical boundaries between peoples are just artificial fabrications. Our ultimate goal is to have the land of Allah ruled by means of strict Islamic laws. Sheikh Ali Muhammad Rage alias Ali Dheere, October 2009 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23

Shabab: Al-Qaeda Connections Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan Fazul Abdullah Muhammad Killed 14 Sep 2009. The decisions included waging jihad in the Eastern and Horn of Africa regions in order to liberate the Islamic communities and to link up our jihad to the global one, led by Al-Qaeda and Sheikh Osama bin Laden. Sheikh Fuad Muhammad Khalaf Shangole, February 2010 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24

Shabab: Beyond Somalia August 2009: Australia Four Australian nationals with supposed links to Shabab arrested in Melbourne over alleged plot to attack Holsworthy army base. January 2010: Denmark Somali national who had allegedly been in contact with Shabab was arrested following a failed attempt to kill Kurt Westergaard. July 2010: Uganda 76 people killed in twin suicide bomb attacks in Kampala. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25

Mujahideen legend Jalaluddin Haqqani Date of birth unknown. Member of Zadran tribe who became a madrassah teacher. 1979-1989 Afghan-Soviet War Emerged as powerful commander affiliated to Yunis Khalis faction of Hizb-i- Islami. 1989-1991 Najibullah falls After 12-year siege, Khowst City falls to Haqqani s forces in March 1991. A year later, he captures Gardez as the Najibullah government collapses. Jalaluddin Haqqani photographed before he started dying his beard Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27

Taliban minister 1992-1996 Civil War Severed as Minister of Justice in the mujahideen government and tried to reconcile warring factions. Taliban ally Joined Taliban movement in 1996 and led its forces in fighting Tajik and Uzbek factions north of Kabul in the winter of 1996-1997. Islamic Emirate minister Jalaluddin Haqqani photographed in Miram Shah circa 1991 Served as Minister of Frontier Affairs in the Taliban s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29

Gracious host Afghan-Soviet War Hosted the young Osama bin Laden, who helped fortify defensive positions. May 1998 Bin Laden holds press conference at Zhawar Kili to publicise jihad against US. August 1998 US military strikes Zhawar Kili in retaliation for bombing of embassies in East Africa. The US military released satellite imagery of the Zhawar Kili complex after carrying out cruise missile strikes in August 1998 (above). US soldiers inspected the site in early 2002 (left). Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30

From father to son Sirajuddin Haqqani Son of Jalaluddin s second, Arab wife. Aided by brothers Badruddin and Nasriuddin US has issued a USD5 million reward for information that leads to his death or capture, making him Afghanistan s most wanted man. CJTF-82 statement Oct 2007 The Haqqani Network is clearly in the hands of Sirajuddin. He has adopted extremist tactics that his father would not approve of. He is the principle suicide facilitator in the region. He has close relations with foreigner jihadists, including Al-Qaeda. He is expanding his influence beyond P2K. Sirajuddin has given several press interviews. We want the independence of Afghanistan and no foreign troops on Afghan soil before any possibility of peace talks We have brotherly ties with Al- Qaeda, they are our Muslim brothers fighting for the same cause, but we do not need any support from them because we are strong ourselves. Reuters, March 2009 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31

Kabul attack network Capital attacks 14 Jan 2008 Serena Hotel 27 April 2008 Mujahideen day parade 7 July 2008 Indian embassy 11 Feb 2009 attacks on ministries 19 May 2009 Bagram air base 28 Oct 2009 UN guesthouse Pioneering tactics First use of fidayeen gunmen strapped with explosives in Kabul. Complex attacks with gunmen and SVBIEDs. Allies Collaborates with other Afghan insurgent factions as well as Al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e- Tayyiba. Afghan security forces respond to the attack on the Ministry of Justice on 11 Feb 2009 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32

Sabari district centre bombing The Sabari district centre bombing on 3 March 2008 killed two US soldiers and several Afghans. The Islamic Jihad Union claimed responsibility, releasing a video of the attack (above) and identifying the bomber as German national of Turkish descent Cuneyt Ciftci (top right). One version of the video featured Jalaluddin (bottom right), who denied reports that he had died. Sirajuddin told a Pakistani newspaper that he masterminded the attack. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33

Al-Qaeda videos February 2010 April 2010 July 2010 Muaad al-turki (Turkish) carried out a SVIED attack on FOB Salerno, Khowst Abu Ziad al-makki (Saudi) carried out SVIED attack on US base at Bowri Tanah, Khowst Luqman al-makki (Saudi), Musa al- Turki (Turkish) and Musa al-afghani attacked border police in Paktika Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34

FOB Chapman bombing 30 Dec 2010 Sirajuddin Haqqani Interview with Al-Balagh April 2010 Jordanian bomber Humam al-badawi (alias Abu Dujannah al-kuransani) appeared in both an Al-Qaeda video (above) and with Hakimullah Mehsud in a video released by TTP media arm Umar Studio (below). The great hero, the mujahid for the sake of Allah, Abu Dujanah al-khurasani, may Allah accept him, in this blessed martyrdom operation which killed senior officials from the US intelligence, the CIA. Those who were killed were an elite intelligence group who were responsible for attacking the mujahideen in those areas, especially the leaders of the mujahideen After killing this group we managed to break the backbone of the enemy, and the effectiveness of their operations targeting the mujahideen were reduced by 90 per cent. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35

International attack planning? New York Times 29 September 2010 [Detained German jihadist Ahmed] Sidiqi mentioned the Haqqani network in Pakistan as being involved in the plot [to carry out attacks in Europe]. Associated Press 30 September 2010 Although he characterized the plot as immature, the Pakistani official warned against underestimating the suspects, whom he said have backing from al-qaida, the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban, all groups that are separate yet interconnected. German nationals Shahab Dashti (Abu Askar) (left) and Javaid Siddiqi (Abu Safiyya) pose for the camera in a still released by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Dashti was reportedly killed in a drone strike carried out in North Waziristan in October. US officials said there was a surge in strikes to disrupt international attack planning. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36

ISI asset New York Times 19 October 2010 At least four Taliban leaders, three of them members of the Quetta shura and one of them a member of the Haqqani family, have taken part in discussions [with the Afghan government], according to the Afghan official and a former diplomat in the region. Jalaluddin Haqqani (left) with General Hamid Gul, director general of the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence Richard Barrett UN Al-Qaeda & Taliban team Interview with Jane s, Sep 2010 I think the father is very ideologically driven, and perhaps the sons too, but the ISI says that Haqqani is essentially a warlord and they still believe that he will do what he is told with the right incentives. I hope so. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37

Going Native Islam in Southeast Asia is a mansion, in which there are many rooms Defining the future of the competitive ideological landscape: Democracy vs. the Islamic State Ruins of the Sari Club in Bali following the 12 October 2002 bomb attack Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40

The Aceh Cell: A Strategic Surprise Southeast Asia 2001-2011: From Second Front to Model for Counterterrorism and back again? Doctrinally and operationally, Al-Qaeda in Aceh represents one of transnational jihadism s most ambitious ventures in the region yet. Image of a training camp from a video released on 5 March by a group referring to itself as the Al-Qaeda Organization Gateway to Mecca Province Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 41

Al-Qaeda s Mutation Lessons learned from 10 years of transnational jihad The tactical, and larger strategic shift: From indiscriminate bombing and limited vigilante action to revolutionary struggle The central question for the Islamist movement in Southeast Asia what does the Islamic revolution require to succeed? Noordin Mohammed Top was killed in a police raid near Solo, Central Java, on 17 September 2009 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42

Al-Qaeda s Reinvention Al-Qaeda but with Asian Characteristics The indigenization strategy and the imperatives of missionary and political struggle Defending Islam against the forces of apostasy, Christians, Hindus and Ahmadis: An emergent AQ-Vigilante Islamist nexus? A police officer outside a terrorist hideout in Solo the day after a raid led to the death of Noordin Mohammed Top Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 43

Future Prospects The rootedness of the Islamist vision in the Indo-Malayan archipelago Is it a mansion with many rooms. or a House Divided? Image of a training camp from a video released on 5 March by a group referring to itself as the Al-Qaeda Organization Gateway to Mecca Province Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 44

Thank you any questions? Tim Pippard Senior Consultant, Security & Military Intelligence, IHS Jane's tim.pippard@ihsjanes.com Guido Steinberg Researcher, Middle East & Africa, German Institute for International & Security Affairs guido.steinberg@swp-berlin.org Will Hartley Manager, Jane s Terrorism & Insurgency Centre will.hartley@ihsjanes.com Jeremy Binnie Principal Terrorism Analyst, IHS Jane s jeremy.binnie@ihsjanes.com Eric Brown Research Fellow, Center on Islam, Democracy & the future of the Muslim World, Hudson Institute ericb@hudson.org Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 45