Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP

Transcription

1 ELECTORALCHANGE.CA Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP A comparison of the first-past-the-post results to PRP results Dave Brekke and Ted Dean 9/1/2013 A compilation of the results of the 2008 Alberta provincial election compared to the results of PRP electoral system results using the same election data.

2 Summary To acquire proportional seats without adding seats, two adjacent ridings were made into one riding with the assistance of Alberta friend, Larry MacKillop. Eight-two ridings became forty-one ridings plus forty one proportional seats. The proportional seats helped reach a closer match between votes of political parties and seats won by them. Ten electoral areas were established to give relative closeness to proportionally elected MLAs and the voters who helped to elect them. Each electoral area had four, six, eight or ten MLAs, half representing ridings and half representing their electoral area. For electoral area results, see below. For more on how this system would work and other election results go to The Riding of West Yellowhead is not included in this analysis to allow for an even number of ridings. That riding stays its present size, has preferential voting, but will not be in a proportional electoral area. 1

3 General Comparison of Systems on Alberta 2008 Provincial Election Results All Seat Groupings 10 Seats or Less Political Party PC Liberal NDP Wildrose Green Popular Vote of 82 Ridings 489, ,235 78,636 64,157 42,128 9, Value of 1 Seat ,370 votes UNDER CANADA'S PRESENT FPTP ELECTORAL SYSTEM Total seats in this Analysis: Over / Under (-) Represented Effective voters in the area out of: voters 442,823 52,793 10, ,325 TOTAL Effective voters: 506, Of voters 2

4 UNDER PRP Total seats in this Analysis: Over / Under (-) Represented Effective voters in the area out of: voters 484, ,786 64,562 56,145 19, ,325 TOTAL Effective voters: 871, of voters 3

5 Northern Alberta Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP Ridings and Candidates in Northern Alberta Electoral district Candidates Votes of Popular Vote Received Peace River PC Frank Oberle 7, ,265 Liberal NDP Adele Boucher Rymhs 2, ,248 Wildrose Georg Beinart 2, Green Dunvegan-Central Peace 13,028 PC Hector Goudreau 4,147 Liberal Bob Woken 288 NDP Nathan Macklin 1,202 Wildrose Dale Lueken 2,339 Green Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo 4,519 PC Guy Boutilier 7, ,758 Liberal Ross Jacobs 2, NDP Mel Kraley Wildrose Green Reginald (Reg) Normore

6 Lesser Slave Lake 12,319 3,384 PC Pearl Calahasen 1,109 Liberal Steve Noskey 426 NDP Habby Sharkawi Wildrose 273 Green Bonnie Raho Grande Prairie Wapiti 5,145 PC Wayne Drysdale 9, ,304 Liberal Augustine Ebinu 2, NDP Manuella Campbell 1, Wildrose Art Proctor 1, Green Grande Prairie Smoky PC Mel Knight 4,769 1,089 Liberal John Croken 832 NDP Neil Peacock 1,049 Wildrose Todd Loewen Green Rebecca Villebrun 15,738 Lac La Biche-St. Paul 6,527 PC Ray Danyluk 10, ,627 Liberal Alex Broadbent 2, ,003 NDP Della Drury 1,

7 Bonnyville-Cold Lake 4,437 PC Genia Leskiw Wildrose Green Liberal Justin Yassoub 389 NDP Jason Sloychuk Wildrose 350 Green Jennifer Brown Barrhead-Morinville- Westlock 8,312 1, Athabasca- Redwater 7,484 1,379 1,225 15,031 PC Ken Kowalski 15, Liberal Leslie Penny 3, NDP Rod Olstad 2, Wildrose Green Dan Evans Carl Haugen (SC) PC Liberal NDP Jeff Johnson Bill Bonko Peter Opryshko 22,839 6

8 Wildrose Green Mike Radojcic Phyllis Penchuk 7

9 Proportional Seat Modeling Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters Paired Proportiona +/- of pop Votes Seat +/- of pop vote Seats l Seats vote s PC , ,989 9 Lib , NDP , WR , Green , , ,

10 Western and Central Alberta Electoral district Party Candidates Red Deer North 4,715 PC Mary-Anne Jablonski 11, ,770 Liberal Richard Farrand 5, NDP Shawn Nielsen 1, Wildrose Urs Lehner 1, Green Rueben Tschetter 1, Red Deer South 20,846 7,139 PC Cal Dallas 3,414 Liberal Diane Kubanek 597 NDP Teresa Bryanton 949 Wildrose Ed Klop 609 Green Evan Bedford Whitecourt-Ste. Anne 6,019 PC George VanderBurg 14, ,106 Liberal Mike Grey 3, NDP Leah Redmond 1, ,146 Wildrose Link Byfield 2, Green Stony Plain 23,291 8,467 PC Fred Lindsay 2,552 Liberal Bill Fraser 976 NDP Shelina Brown 9

11 793 Wildrose Sandy Pariseau 571 Green Nora Shea Drayton Valley-Calmar 5,931 PC Diana McQueen 12, Liberal Norma Block 1, NDP Luanne Bannister ,053 Wildrose Dean Schmale 2, ,877 Green Edwin Erickson 2, Rocky Mountain House 19,911 6,188 PC Ty Lund 849 Liberal Norm McDougall 279 NDP Jorge Souza 1,156 Wildrose Fanie van Heerden 699 Green Jennifer Ripley 643 Wilf Tricker (SC) Innisfail-Sylvan Lake 6,967 PC Luke Ouellette 14, ,539 Liberal Garth Davis 2, NDP Tophie Davies ,215 Wildrose Wayne Edmundson 3, Green Lisa Grant 1, Anthony Haggarty (Ind) Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills 23,323 7,837 PC Richard Marz 1,038 Liberal Tony Vonesch 268 NDP Andy Davies 2,572 Wildrose Curt Engel 10

12 518 Green Kate Haddow 119 Bruce Hutton (SPA) Banff-Cochrane 4,727 PC Janis Tarchuk 11, ,753 Liberal Patricia K. Robertson 4, NDP Anne Wilson Wildrose 2, ,353 Green Dan Cunin 2, Zrinko Amerl (Ind.) Foothills-Rocky View 21,626 6,916 PC Ted Morton 2,200 Liberal Herb Coburn 196 NDP Ricardo de Menezes 1,797 Wildrose Joseph McMaster 937 Green Larry Ashmore Not Included in Paired Ridings West Yellowhead 4,206 PC Robin Campbell 1,932 Liberal Lisa Higgerty 1,054 NDP Ken Kuzminski 326 Wildrose Earle Cunningham 296 Green Scott Pickett 11

13 Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters Paired Seats Proportional Seats +/- of pop vote Pct Seats Seats +/- of pop vote PC , ,906 Lib , NDP , WR , Green , , ,116 64,906 12

14 East and Central Alberta Electoral district Candidates Strathmore-Brooks 7,623 PC Arno Doerksen 14, Liberal Gerry Hart 2, NDP Brian Stokes Wildrose Amanda Shehata 1, Green Chris Bayford Drumheller-Stettler 20,364 6,986 PC Jack Hayden 1,463 Liberal Tom Dooley 276 NDP Richard Bough 1,062 Wildrose Dave France 353 Green Amanda Bolton Battle River-Wainwright 7,968 PC Doug Griffiths 14, ,260 Liberal Horst Schreiber 2, NDP Doris Bannister Wildrose Green Will Munsey Vermilion-Lloydminster 18,827 7,013 PC Lloyd Snelgrove 826 Liberal Robert Sawatzky 482 NDP Wendy Myshak Wildrose 364 Green Ngaio Hotte Leduc-Beaumont-Devon 13

15 9,045 PC George Rogers 20, ,329 Liberal Joyce Assen 3, ,057 NDP Lisa Erickson 2, ,008 Wildrose Sharon MacLise 1, Green Kevin Colton 1, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville 28,230 11,169 PC Ed Stelmach 1,343 Liberal Earl J. Woods 1,233 NDP Clayton Marsden Wildrose 551 Green Ryan Scheie Wetaskiwin-Camrose 7,726 PC Verlyn Olson 15, ,646 Liberal Keith Elliott 2, ,078 NDP Sarah Mowat 1, Wildrose Tyler Knelsen 1, Green Midge Lambert 3, Lacombe-Ponoka 25,825 8,202 PC Ray Prins 1,200 Liberal Edith McPhedran 560 NDP Steve Bradshaw 911 Wildrose Daniel Freisen 3,226 Green Joe Anglin 14

16 Proportional Seat Calculation for Central and East Alberta Total Area Results FPTP Results Effectiv e Voters Paired Seats Proportional Seats +/- of pop vote Votes Seats +/- of pop vote PC , ,109 Lib , ND , P WR , Gre , ,022 58,

17 Southern Alberta Electoral district Candidates Calgary-Fort 4,123 PC Wayne Cao 13, ,770 Liberal Carole Oliver 3, ,178 NDP Julie Hrdlicka 1, Wildrose Travis Chase 3, Green J. Mark Taylor 1, Airdrie-Chestermere 23,255 9,374 PC Rob Anderson 1,973 Liberal John Burke 609 NDP Bryan Young 2,362 Wildrose Jeff Willerton 660 Green David Brandreth Highwood 7,715 PC George Groeneveld 13, ,647 Liberal Stan Shedd 3, NDP Carolyn Boulton ,405 Wildrose Daniel Doherty 2, Green John Barret 1, Livingstone-Macleod 21,255 6,037 PC Evan Berger 1,534 Liberal Mike Judd 476 NDP Phil Burpee 16

18 988 Wildrose Jack Macleod 371 Green Bryan Hunt Little Bow 5,150 PC Barry McFarland 9, ,080 Liberal Everett Tanis 1, NDP Duane Petluk ,051 Wildrose Kevin Kinahan 6, Green Marie Read Cardston-Taber- Warner 4,374 PC Broyce Jacobs 436 Liberal Ron Hancock 190 NDP Suzanne Sirias 4,325 Wildrose Paul Hinman 180 Green Billy Turner Lethbridge East 17 18,375 4,715 PC Jason Herasemluk 9, ,582 Liberal Bridget Pastoor 9, NDP Tom Moffatt 1, Wildrose Grant Shaw 1, Green Helen McMenamin Lethbridge West 23,474 5,002 PC Greg Weadick 4,022 Liberal Bal Boora 1,179 NDP James Moore

19 855 Wildrose Matt Fox 392 Green Brennan Tilley Cypress-Medicine Hat 5,640 PC Leonard Mitzel 11, ,023 Liberal Dick Mastel 5, NDP Manuel Martinez Wildrose Dan Pierson 1, Green Bright Pride Medicine Hat 19,432 5,388 PC Rob Renner 3,625 Liberal Karen Charlton 484 NDP Diana Arnott 746 Wildrose Clint Rabb 285 Green Karen Kraus 18

20 19 Alberta 2008 Provincial Election as Analyzed With PRP

21 PC Lib NDP WR Gre Paired Seats Proportional Seats Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters +/- of Votes Seats +/- of pop pop vote vote , , , , , , , ,791 58,

22 Edmonton Central Candidates PC Tony Vandermeer 7, Liberal Dawit Isaac 3, NDP Ray Martin 8, Wildrose Brian Dell Green Frederick Pivot Robin Porteous (SC) ,882 PC Andrew Beniuk Liberal Brad Smith NDP Brian Mason Wildrose Travis Loewen Green Mohamad Maie PC Bill Donahue 6, Liberal Laurie Blakeman 7, NDP Deron Bilous 8, Wildrose James Iverson Green David Parker 1, Margaret Saunter (AP) ,095 PC T.J. Keil Liberal Tim Vant NDP Rachel Notley 21

23 Wildrose Green Adrian Cole PC Heather Klimchuk 9, Liberal Bruce Miller 11, NDP Arlene Chapman 3, Wildrose Elden Van Hauwaert Green Peter Johnston ,299 PC Wendy Andrews Liberal Kevin Taft NDP Erica Bullwinkle Wildrose Kyle Van Hauwaert Green Cameron Wakefield PC David Dorward 12, Liberal Hugh MacDonald 10, NDP Sherry McKibben 3, Wildrose Green David Zylstra 1, ,492 PC Gene Zwozdesky Liberal Aman Gill NDP Stephen Anderson Wildrose 22

24 Green Glen Argan Naomi Rankin (Com) PC Fred Horne 9, Liberal Rick Miller 9, NDP Mike Butler 2, Wildrose John Baloun Green Kate Wyrostok ,129 PC Carl Benito Liberal Weslyn Mather NDP Christina Gray Wildrose Robert Leddy Green David Hruska 23

25 Proportional Seat Calculation for Edmonton Central Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Paired Seats Proportion al Seats +/- of pop vote Votes Seat s +/- of pop vote PC , ,620 Lib , ,792 ND , ,616 P WR , Gre , ,897 55,

26 Sub Edmonton North Electoral district Candidates Edmonton-Calder 4,557 PC Doug Elniski 11, ,839 Liberal Jim Kane 6, ,356 NDP David Eggen 5, Wildrose Green Mike Brown Edmonton Castle Downs 25,041 7,159 PC Thomas Lukaszuk 5,090 Liberal Chris Kibermanis 1,341 NDP Ali Haymour Wildrose 297 Green Bob Reckhow Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert 9,369 PC Doug Horner 17, ,528 Liberal Ray Boudreau 10, NDP Peter Cross 1, Wildrose Green Allan West 1, St. Albert 30,938 8,403 PC Ken Allred 5,598 Liberal Jack Flaherty

27 959 NDP Katy Campbell Wildrose 576 Green Ross Vincent Edmonton Decore 4,577 PC Janice Sarich 8, ,895 Liberal Bill Bonko 6, ,301 NDP Sidney Sadik 3, Wildrose Green Trey Capenhurst , Edmonton Manning 21,487 4,107 PC Peter Sandhu 2,260 Liberal Sandeep Dhir 2,307 NDP Rick Murti 289 Wildrose Phil Gamache 235 Green Odette Boily 2,275 Dan Backs (Ind.) 26

28 PC Lib NDP WR Gre Paired Seats Proportional Seats Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters +/- of pop Votes Pct +/- of pop vote vote , , , , , , ,466 38,

29 Sub Edmonton South Electoral district Candidates Edmonton Ellerslie 4,581 PC Naresh Bhardwaj 16, ,592 Liberal Bharat Agnihotri 10, ,891 NDP Marilyn Assheton-Smith 2, Wildrose Krista Leddy Green Paul Boos Cheryl Ullah (SC) Edmonton-Whitemud 31,549 12,054 PC David Hancock 6,997 Liberal Nancy Cavanaugh 1,023 NDP Hana Razga Wildrose 543 Green Valerie Kennedy Edmonton McClung 7,173 PC David Xiao 13, ,947 Liberal Mo Elsalhy 9, NDP Bridget Stirling 1, Wildrose Kristine Jassman Green Bryan Wyrostok Edmonton Meadowlark 25,918 6,174 PC Raj Sherman 3,423 Liberal Debbie Cavaliere 1,010 NDP Pascal Ryffel 28

30 306 Wildrose Richard Guyon 347 Green Amanda Doyle Strathcona 9,951 PC Dave Quest 19, ,995 Liberal Jon Friel 6, NDP Denny Holmwood 1, Wildrose Green Kate Harrington 1, Gordon Barrett (SC) Sherwood Park 29,783 9,312 PC Iris Evans 3,843 Liberal Louise Rogers 904 NDP Katharine Hay Wildrose 689 Green Rick Hoines 29

31 Paired Seats PC 3 - Lib - 2 ND P - 1 W R - - Gr e Proportional Seats Total Area Results FPTP Results +/- of pop Votes Seats +/- of vote pop vote , , , , , ,250 30

32 Calgary Central Electoral district Candidates Calgary-Nose Hill 4,586 PC Neil Brown 9, ,761 Liberal Len Borowski 9, NDP Tristan Ridley Wildrose John Murdoch 1, Green Nick Burman 1, Calgary-Varsity 23,904 5,353 PC Jennifer Diakiw 6,907 Liberal Harry B. Chase 530 NDP Tim Stock-Bateman 1,043 Wildrose Brennan Ltyle 758 Green Sean Maw Calgary-North Hill 4,281 PC Kyle Fawcett 8, ,573 Liberal Pat Murray 6, ,381 NDP John Chan 1, Wildrose Jane Morgan 1, Green Kevin Maloney 1, Jim Wright (SC) Calgary-East 19,681 4,583 PC Moe Amery 2,433 Liberal Bill Harvey 425 NDP Christopher Dovey 31

33 681 Wildrose Mike McCraken 333 Green Ross Cameron 55 Bonnie Collins (Com) Calgary-Mountain View 4,252 PC Leah Lawrence 7, ,086 Liberal David Swann 11, NDP John Donovan 1, Wildrose Cory Morgan Green Juliet Burgess 1, Calgary-Buffalo 23,141 3,646 PC Sean Chu 4,583 Liberal Kent Hehr 387 NDP Robert Lawrence 32 Wildrose 611 Green Stephen Ricketts 158 Antoni Grochowski (SC) Calgary-Currie 4,552 PC Arthur Kent 10, ,564 Liberal Dave Taylor 11, NDP Marc Power Wildrose Ken Mazeroll 1, Green Graham MacKenzie 1, Calgary-Elbow 26,781 6,130 PC Alison Redford 5,711 Liberal Craig Cheffins 290 NDP Garnet Wilcox 963 Wildrose Dale Nelson

34 526 Green Jonathon Sheffield 948 Barry Erskine (Ind) Calgary-Glenmore 6,436 PC Ron Stevens 11, ,213 Liberal Avalon Roberts 7, NDP Holly Heffernan ,025 Wildrose Ryan Sadler 1, Green Arden Bonokoski 1, , Calgary-Egmont 25,118 5,415 PC Jonathan Denis 3,289 Liberal Cathie Williams 447 NDP Jason Nishiyama 676 Wildrose Barry Chase 582 Green Mark McGillvray 2,008 Craig Chandler (Ind.) 33

35 PC Lib NDP WR Gre Paired Seats Proportional Seats Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters +/- of pop Votes Seats +/- of pop vote vote , , , , , , , , ,625 55,

36 Sub Calgary North Electoral district Candidates Calgary-West 8,428 PC Ron Liepert 15, ,693 Liberal Beth Gignac 10, NDP Chantelle Dubois ,273 Wildrose Bob Babcock 3, Green James Kohut 1, Calgary-Bow 32,376 6,687 PC Alana DeLong 5,173 Liberal Greg Flanagan 507 NDP Teale Phelps Bondaroff 1,425 Wildrose Barry Hilenski 845 Green Randy Weeks 171 Len Skowronski (SC) Calgary-North West 8,415 PC Lindsay Blackett 14, ,552 Liberal Dale Martin D'Silva 10, NDP Colin Anderson ,703 Wildrose Chris Jukes 3, Green George Read 1, Calgary-Foothills 30,840 6,088 PC Len Webber 4909 Liberal Mike Robinson 35

37 251 NDP Stephanie Sundburg 972 Wildrose Kevin Legare 411 Green Ian Groll Calgary-Mackay 6,247 PC Teresa Woo-Paw 10, ,048 Liberal Tianna Melnyk 8, NDP Daena Diduck ,609 Wildrose Rob Gregory 2, Green Ryan Smith Calgary-McCall 22,550 4,161 PC Shiraz Shariff 4,279 Liberal Darshan Kang 275 NDP Preet Sihota 542 Wildrose Ina Given 385 Green Heather Brocklesby Calgary-Cross 4,004 PC Yvonne Fritz 6, ,567 Liberal Rob Reinhold 2, NDP Shelina Hassanali Wildrose Gordon Huth 1, Green Susan Stratton , Calgary-Montrose 14,672 2,627 PC Manmeet Bhullar 1,396 Liberal Michael Embaie 512 NDP Al Brown

38 818 Wildrose Said Abdulbaki 262 Green Fred Clemens 2,010 Ron Leech (Ind) 37

39 Paired Seats PC 4 - Lib - 3 ND P - - WR - 1 Gr e Proportional Seats Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters +/- of pop Votes Seats +/- of pop vote vote , , , , , , , , ,438 46,

40 Sub Calgary South Electoral district Candidates Calgary-Hays 6,968 PC Arthur Johnston 13, ,586 Liberal Bill Kurtze 7, NDP Tyler Kinch ,366 Wildrose Devin Cassidy 2, Green Keeley Bruce 1, Calgary-Fish Creek 6,884 PC Heather Forsyth 4,038 Liberal Laura Shutiak 423 NDP Eric Leavitt 1,261 Wildrose Jamie Buchan 556 Green Kerry Fraser Calgary-Lougheed 26,012 7,190 PC David Rodney 14, ,926 Liberal Lori Czerwinski 6, NDP Clint Marko ,620 Wildrose Derrick Jacobson 2, Green Bernie Amell 1, Gordon Laurie (Ind.) Calgary-Shaw 25,753 7,010 PC Cindy Ady 2,958 Liberal John Roggeveen 39

41 334 NDP Jenn Carlson 1,268 Wildrose Richard P. Dur 491 Green Jennifer Oss-Saunders 40

42 Paired Seats PC 2 - Lib - 1 ND P - - WR - 1 Gre Proportional Seats Total Area Results FPTP Results Effective Voters +/- of pop Votes Seats Pct +/- of pop vote vote , , , , , , ,765 28,