National Election Study-Pre-poll 1996-Findings

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1 Q1: Lok Sabha elections (to elect MPs) are to take place next month. Have you heard about it? 1: No : Yes Q2: Are you going to vote this time? 1: No : Yes a: (If no) Why? Valid (%) Valid 1: Not likely to be here : Do not feel like voting : Fear of violence etc : Others Total Missing 9: N.A Q3: Have you made up your mind about who to vote for in the coming election? 1: No : Yes Q4: If Lok Sabha elections were to take place tomorrow, who would you vote for? Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 1

2 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : INC(S) : INC(Tiwari) : Shiv Sena : IUML : In League : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : RSP : Forward Bloc : RPI : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : HVP : PWP : MGP : UGDP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : KC(M) : KC(J) : TDP(Naidu) Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 2

3 86: PMK : KCP : HPU : AGP : TUJS : Don't know : Refusal Q5: And what about state elections - who would you vote for in the assembly elections? 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : INC(S) : INC(Tiwari) : IUML : PDP (Madani) : In League : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : RSP : Forward Bloc : CMP : JSS 3.0 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 3

4 66: HVP : AIADMK : DMK : KC(M) : KC(J) : PMK : AGP : Don't know : Refusal/N.A Q6: At the time of elections, people talk about different problems. I would like to have your views on it. What are the main problems people like you face today? a: 1st response 01: Unemployment : Poverty : Price rise : Economic problem : Loan problem : Shelter : Food and clothing : Water problem : Electricity : Transport problem : Educational problem : Law and order problem : Corruption : Terrorism problem : Political instability problem : Lack of prob : Problems for women 20.2 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 4

5 32: Casteism problems : Religious problems : Alcoholism problems : Poor exploitation : Fall in moral values : Agricultural problem : Land for cultivation : Low price for agricultural product : Lack of industries : Flood : Local problems : Other problems : Don't know/can't say : Not specified 30.3 b: 2nd response 01: Unemployment : Poverty : Price rise : Economic problem : Loan problem : Shelter : Food and clothing : Water problem : Electricity : Transport problem : Educational problem : Hospital problem : Law and order problem : Corruption Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 5

6 22: Terrorism problem : Political instability problem : More population : Problems for women : Casteism problems : Religious problems : Alcoholism problems : Poor exploitation : Agricultural problem : Land for cultivation : Low price for agricultural product : Lack of industries : Other problems : Don't know/can't say : Not specified c: 3rd response 01: Unemployment : Poverty : Price rise : Economic problem : Loan problem : Shelter : Food and clothing : Water problem : Electricity : Transport problem : Educational problem : Corruption : Terrorism problem 26.3 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 6

7 23: Political instability problem : Lack of prob : Problems for women : Casteism problems : Religious problems : Alcoholism problems : Poor exploitation : Agricultural problem : Land for cultivation : Low price for agricultural product : Industries problems : Other problems : Don't know/can't say : Not specified Q7: Which party is best suited to solve these problems? 00: No party : Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : UDF in Kerala : INC(Tiwari) : BJP-Shiv Sena : Shiv Sena : IUML 13.1 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 7

8 28: PDP (Madani) : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc : JSS : NF-LF : RPI : ASDS : Mixed Coalition : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : HVP : PWP : MGP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : HPU : AGP : Don't know : Refusal/N.A Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 8

9 Q8: I would like to know your views about government formed by several parties (coalition governments). Some people say there is no harm in it. Some others say that under special circumstances there is no other way out except coalition government. While others say that it is not desirable under any circumstances. How about you? Would you say that: 1: There is no harm in it : It is to be accepted under special circumstances : It is not acceptable under any circumstances : Can't say/don't know Q9: Suppose there were no parties or assemblies and elections were not held-do you think that the government in this country can be run better? 1: No : Yes : Can't say/don't know Q10: Now let me ask about the last Lok Sabha election held five years ago in 1991 ( four years ago in 1992 ). Were you able to vote in that election? 1: No : Yes : Don't remember a: (If No) What was the main reason you could not vote? Valid (%) Valid 0: Not eligible : Not included in voter s list : Out of station : Not well Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 9

10 Valid (%) 4: Did not feel like voting : Prevented by some people : Somebody had already voted : Fear of violence at polling station : Others Total Missing 9: N.A b: (If Yes) Who did you vote for in that election? Valid (%) Valid 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : UDF in Kerala : Shiv Sena : IUML : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc : RPI : Mixed Coalition Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 10

11 Valid (%) 62: SAD : SAD(M) : JMM : HVP : PWP : MGP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : HPU : AGP : Don't know Total Missing 99: Not voted Q11: During the last five years how has the general condition of the entire country been? Has the general condition of the country improved, worsened or has it remained the same? 1: Worsened : Remained the same : Improved : Don't know Q12: When making your mind about who to vote for, what matters more to you-party or candidate? 1: Party : Candidate Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 11

12 3: Both : Don't know/can't say Q13: What is you opinion about the work of the present Congress government at the Centre (In Delhi) for the last five years? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied or not at all satisfied with its work? 1: Not at all satisfied : Somewhat satisfied : Very satisfied : Don't know/can't say Q14: How satisfied are you with the work done by the present ruling party government in the State? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied or not at all satisfied? 1: Not at all satisfied : Somewhat satisfied : Very satisfied : Don't know/can't say Q15: Is there any party you feel close to? 1: No : Yes Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 12

13 a: (If Yes) Which is that party? Valid (%) Valid 00: No party : Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : INC(S) : INC(Tiwari) : BJP-Shiv Sena : Shiv Sena : IUML : PDP (Madani) : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc : NF-LF : RPI : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : HVP : PWP Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 13

14 Valid (%) 71: MGP : UGDP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : KC(M) : KC(J) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : HPU : AGP : Don't know Total Missing 99: N.A Q16: Which party would you like to form the government in Delhi after this election? 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : UDF in Kerala : INC(Tiwari) : BJP-Shiv Sena : Shiv Sena : IUML : PDP (Madani) 2.0 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 14

15 29: In League : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc : NF-LF : RPI : Mixed Coalition : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : HVP : PWP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : HPU : AGP : Don't know : N.A Q17: And, who would you like to be the next prime minister? 01: P.V. Narasimha Rao Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 15

16 02: L.K, Advani : Atal Behari Vajpayee : V.P. Singh : Chandra Sekhar : Kanshi Ram : Jyoti Basu : Laloo Prasad Yadav : Mulayam Singh Yadav : Arjun Singh : Sharad Pawar : Rajesh Pilot : Others : Don't know/can't say Q18: During the last five years, the central government has made many changes in its economic policy. Have you heard about them? 1: No : Yes a: (If Yes) On the whole do you approve or disapprove of these changes? Valid (%) Valid 1: Disapprove : Approve : Don't know/can't say Total Missing 9: N.A Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 16

17 Q19: Recently the Hawala scam (Scandal) has been in the news and the name of several big leaders has figured in it. Have you heard about it? 1: No : Yes Q20: Here in this Lok Sabha Constituency which parties do you think would really be in the main contest this time? a: 1st party 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : UDF in Kerala : INC(Tiwari) : BJP-Shiv Sena : Shiv Sena : IUML : PDP (Madani) : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML 24.2 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 17

18 44: Forward Bloc : NF-LF : RPI : Mixed Coalition : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : HVP : PWP : MGP : UGDP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : HPU : AGP : Don't know : Refusal/Blank 30.3 b: 2nd party 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents 46.5 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 18

19 09: Others : UDF in Kerala : INC(S) : INC(Tiwari) : BJP-Shiv Sena : Shiv Sena : IUML : PDP (Madani) : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc : NF-LF : RPI : Mixed Coalition : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : HVP : PWP : MGP : UGDP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : KC(J) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK 12.1 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 19

20 87: KCP : HPU : AGP : TUJS : Don't know : Refusal/Blank c: 3rd party 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents : Others : UDF in Kerala : INC(Tiwari) : BJP-Shiv Sena : Shiv Sena : IUML : PDP (Madani) : National Front : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc 10.1 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 20

21 48: JSS : NF-LF : RPI : Mixed Coalition : SAD : SAD(M) : SAD(B) : JMM : PWP : MGP : UGDP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : KCP : AGP : TUJS : Don't know : Refusal/Blank d: 4th party 01: Congress : BJP : JD : CPI : CPM : BSP : Independents Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 21

22 09: Others : INC(S) : INC(Tiwari) : Shiv Sena : IUML : PDP (Madani) : In League : SJP : SP (Mulayam) : Samata : LF/LDF : RSP : IPF/CPML : Forward Bloc : NF-LF : Mixed Coalition : SAD : SAD(B) : JMM : PWP : AIADMK : DMK : TDP(NTR) : TDP(Naidu) : PMK : KCP : HPU : Don't know : Refusal/Blank Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 22

23 Q21: Have you heard about Kaveri issue (Only for Karnataka, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu)? Valid (%) Valid 1: No : Yes Total Missing 9: Not answered/n.a Q22:.. state government (Only for Karnataka, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu)? Valid (%) Valid 1: No : Yes : Can't say Total Missing 9: Blank Q23: What was the Central Government's attitudes towards the State government (Only for Karnataka, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu)? Valid (%) Valid 1: Acted impartially : Favoured Karnataka : Favoured Tamil Nadu : Can't say Total Missing 9: Not answered/n.a Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 23

24 BACKGROUND INFORMATION Z1: Age (in completed years) Valid (%) Valid 1: Up to 25 years : 26 years to 35 years : 36 years to 45 years : 46 years to 55 years : 56 years and above Total Missing 9: Not mentioned 7.1 Z2: Gender 1: Male : Female Z3: What is your highest level of education? Valid (%) Valid 1: Illiterate : Literate but no formal education : Primary : Middle pass : High school pass : College-no degree : Graduate : Post graduate/professional degree Total Missing 9: N.A. 6.1 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 24

25 Valid (%) Z4: What is/has been your main occupation? 01: Executives, Managers, Professionals and officials : Professionals and officers (Class II) : White-Collar : Class IV employees in Govt./non-Govt. sector : Skilled workers : Craftsmen and Artisans (Group I) : Semi-skilled workers : Craftsmen and Artisans (Group II) : Unskilled workers : Domestic servants/maid servants : Petty business : Small scale business : Large scale business : Farmers with 5 or more acres of land : Farmers with acres of land : Farmers with less than 1 acre of land : Share-cropper : Agricultural labourers with some land of their own : Landless agricultural labour : Tea/Coffee/Rubber plantation workers : Poultry and Dairy farming : Fishermen : Shepherd, Cattle Grazers, Toddy tapers : Hunters : Unemployed/non worker : Student : Housewife : Other occupations Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 25

26 99: Not specified 64.7 Z4: What is/has been occupation of main earner? 01: Executives, Managers, Professionals and officials : Professionals and officers (Class II) : White-Collar : Class IV employees in Govt./non-Govt. sector : Skilled workers : Craftsmen and Artisans (Group I) : Semi-skilled workers : Craftsmen and Artisans (Group II) : Unskilled workers : Domestic servants/maid servants : Petty business : Small scale business : Large scale business : Farmers with 5 or more acres of land : Farmers with acres of land : Farmers with less than 1 acre of land : Share-cropper : Agricultural labourers with some land of their own : Landless agricultural labour : Tea/Coffee/Rubber plantation workers : Poultry and Dairy farming : Fishermen : Shepherd, Cattle Grazers, Toddy tapers : Hunters : Unemployed/non worker : Student : Housewife 30.3 Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 26

27 80: Other occupations : Not specified Z6: What is your Caste Group? Valid (%) Valid 1: Scheduled Caste : Scheduled Tribe : Other Backward Caste : Others Total Missing 9: N.A Z7: What is your religion? 1: Hindu : Muslim : Christian : Sikh : Buddhist : Jain : Parsi 1.0 8: Others 17.2 Z8: Locality 1: Rural : Urban Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 27

28 Z9: Have you got voter s photo identity card? 1: No card, not photographed : Photographed but card not issued : Card issued but defective : Card issued and in order : Others : N.A E1: Was anyone else present at the time of interview? 1: No one present : Others present but they took no part : Others took part : N.A E2: Was the respondent cooperative? 1: Very cooperative : Cooperative but did not seem actively interested : Uncooperative : N.A Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, CSDS Page 28

National Election Study-Mid-poll 1996-Findings

National Election Study-Mid-poll 1996-Findings Q1: During this election campaign, have you attended any election meeting organised by any party candidate? 1: No 8279 89.3 2: Yes 987 10.7 Q2: Has any candidate, party worker or canvasser come to your