Values, Trends, and the Arab Spring

Transcription

1 Values, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, & the Ford Foundation for their support.

2 Overview Between the decline of the liberal age in 1940s-50s and the Arab Spring, the Arab world experienced the upsurge of two major cultural movements: Pan-Arab nationalism Islamic fundamentalism. The Arab Spring is a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity No Arab political unity & decline in the political significance of the army The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool A shift in people s political and cultural values Who participated in the Arab Spring: The case of Egypt?

3 Methodology Survey data available Collected in face-to-face interviews using paper-and-pencil instruments Nationally representative samples using PPS Sample size Dates collected Oversampling Response rate Egypt 3,496 June-Aug 2011 Coptic Christians 93% Egypt 1,677 Jan 2012 None Iraq 3,000 Jan-Feb 2011 None 61% Lebanon 3,034 March-July 2011 Druze 88% Saudi Arabia 2,005 Jan-Feb 2011 Shi a Muslims 73% Survey data pending Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey

4 Sample dispositions Methodology Egypt (2011) Egypt (2012 Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia Male 49% 52% 53% 59% University education 15% 15% 13% 28% 15% Average age Religion: Not asked Sunni* 23% 75% Shi a* 31% 33% 25% Druze 6% Muslim (no sect spec) 86% 29% Christian 14% 0.4% 26% *Muslim sect was not reported in Saudi Arabia but 25% of respondents were from a predominantly Shi a city, and 75% were from predominantly Sunni cities

5 People s Explanations for the Arab Spring: Movements for democracy & economic prosperity % reporting main reaso on for the Arab Spring 7 59% 51% Freedom & democracy 25% 15% Economic equality & prosperity 9% Islamic government 9% 9% 2% 2% 3% Counter Western influence Part of a Western conspiracy 4% Arab unity Egypt Lebanon

6 % Relying A great deal or Somewhat on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information % 74% 62% 49% 49% 28% 14% 14% Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia Satellite TV Internet Mobile

7 Trends in Values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis National Identity Which one of the following best describes you? 1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all 2. I am a Muslim, above all 3. I am an Arab, above all 4. I am a Kurd, above all 5. Other

8 National Identity: Egyptian Muslims % 81% 56% 48% 41% 1% 2% Above all, I am Egyptian Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab %

9 National Identity: 7 56% Iraq 59% 63% 57% 23% 32% Dec Apr Mar Jul Dec Jan % Above all, I am Iraqi

10 % National Identity: Saudi Arabia 75% 46% 44% Above all, I am Saudi Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab % 8%

11 Trends in Values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis Religion & Politics 1.Wishes of the people vs. Shari'a law 2.Characteristics of politicians 3.Secular politics 4.Forms of government

12 Attitudes toward Secular Politics: People s Wishes Versus the Shari a (Forced choice, 2011) % 18% 12% 56% A good govt implements only the law of the shari'a 72% 82% 88% 44% A good govt makes laws according to people's wishes Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia

13 Attitudes toward Secular Politics Which is better in a politician? (Forced choice, 2011) 22% 19% 14% Strong religious beliefs 43% 78% 81% 86% 58% Strong commitment to national interests Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia

14 Egyptian Muslims: People s Wishes Versus the Shari a 7 48% 62% 31% A good government implements only the shari'a law (% strongly agree) A good government makes laws according to the people's wishes (% strongly agree)

15 Egyptian Muslims: Attitudes toward secular politics % Strongly agree/agree % 93% % 57% Egypt would be better if religion and politics were separated Democracy may have problems but it's better than other forms of govt

16 Iraq: Attitudes toward secular politics % Strongly agree/agree that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics are separated % 63% 69% 76% 69% Dec Apr Oct Dec Jan.-2011

17 Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari a & in trust of religious institutions % 31% Shari'a law very important % 46% Trusting religious institutions a great deal

18 Egyptian Muslims: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov t (% Very good) % 79% 68% 9% 2% 5% Democratic political system Strong head of government

19 7 Iraq: % Strongly agree with different forms of government 59% 55% 53% 22% 15% 11% 11% 12% 5% 6% 7% Democracy Islamic government Strong head of government 2004 Apr Army rule

20 Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of government (% Strongly agree/agree) % 58%

21 Trends in Values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis Attitudes toward gender equality 1. A wife must always obey her husband. 2. Men make better political leaders than women do. 3. University education is more important for boys than it is for girls.

22 Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) % 73% 55% 47% 16% 21% 25% Wife must always obey her husband Men make better political leaders University education is more important for boys

23 Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) % 63% 71% 69% 42% 33% 29% 25% 8% A wife should always obey her husband Men make better political leaders University education is more important for boys

24 Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) 7 53% 61% 44% 44% Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband

25 Participation in Demonstrations against the Mubarak Regime among Egyptian Muslims in 2011

26 Egyptian Muslims: Measure of Participation On the scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating minimum to none participation and 10 the utmost participation, where do you put the extent of your participation on this scale? Participation % Participating 1 (Minimum to none) 60.1% 2 6.4% 3 5.5% 4 5.3% 5 4.9% 6 4.3% 7 5.5% 8 4.6% 9 1.7% 10 (Utmost) 1.9% N 3005 Mean (standard deviation) 2.7 (2.56)

27 Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of participation Correlation coefficients Demographics Male.152 ** Unmarried.115 ** Formative years under Mubarak.089 ** Employed.138 ** SES.212 ** Urbanarea.162 ** Organizational membership factor Religious/Political/Charitable membership.008 Attitudes toward government Trust in government ** Rating of government ** Sources of information Radio.066 ** Domestic TV.027 Foreign satellite TV.058 ** Newspaper.212 ** Internet.182 ** Mobile.070 ** ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

28 Egyptian Muslims: Correlations of participation (continued) Correlation coefficients continued Gender segregation Gender mixing doesn t lead to moral decay.039 Liberalism factor Gender equality/socialindividualism/secular politics.140 ** Religiosity Mosque/Church attendance.114 ** Frequency of prayer Identify as religious person * Importance of God in life Morality factor Stealing/Violence/Tellinglies.244 ** Social-Psychological issues Perceived control.103 ** Insecurity.112 ** Free will.205 ** Attitudes toward the West Cultural invasion by the West.006 Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors.152 ** ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

29 Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation OLS Regression Demographics Male.092** Unmarried.049* Formative years under Mubarak.052* Employed.026 SES.054* Urban area.095** Organizational membership factor Religious/Political/Charitable membership Attitudes toward government Trust in government Rating of government Sources of information Radio.035 Domestic TV.018 Foreign satellite TV Newspaper.122** Internet/Mobile.032 ** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed);* Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

30 Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation (continued) OLS Regression continued Gender segregation Gender mixing doesn t lead to moral decay.041* Liberalism factor Gender equality/social individualism/secular politics.058** Religiosity Mosque/Church attendance.016 Frequency of prayer.008 Identify as religious person.013 Importance of God in life Morality factor Stealing/Violence/Telling lies.219** Social-Psychological issues Perceived control.092** Insecurity.111** Free will.143** Attitudes toward the West Cultural invasion by the West Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors.065** Adjusted R ** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed);* Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

31 Summary 1. Increase in national identity 2. Decline in support for the shari a 3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt) 4. Predictors of participation in the Arab Spring: (1) Male, single, formative years under

32 Thank you! Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong