Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle. global local Islam

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2 Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle global local Islam

3 Kathrin Lenz-Raymann (lic. phil.) works in the field of political consulting in Zurich, Switzerland. Her research interests include social and human security, counter-terrorism policies and human rights.

4 Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle Counter-Terrorism and Freedom of Religion in Central Asia

5 This thesis was accepted as a doctoral dissertation by the Faculty of Arts of the University of Zurich in the spring semester 2014 on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel, Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder. This project was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at transcript Verlag, Bielefeld All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. All photographs and cover illustration: Lisa Harand Cover layout: Kordula Röckenhaus, Bielefeld Printed by Majuskel Medienproduktion GmbH, Wetzlar Print-ISBN PDF-ISBN

6 Content Thanks 13 Summary Introduction Research Interest Theoretical Background Methods Databases, Country Reports and Country Profiles 38 PART I REVIVAL OF ISLAM: CASE STUDIES OF ISLAMIC GROUPS 2. Features of Central Asian Folk Islam General Remarks on Islam Sunni Hanafi Madhab Sufism Folk Islam: Saints Culture and Mazar Worshipping Salafi Islam: Social Transformation and Political Islam Catchwords, Misconceptions and Important Terms Political Islam and Salafism Jihadists: Armed Warriors for the Caliphate Islamists: Political Parties Modernists and Neo-Fundamentalists: Social Transformation Typology of Islamic Groups Folk-Islamic Groups Non-Traditional Islamic Groups 110

7 PART II POLITICS AND ISLAM: CASE STUDIES OF POLITICAL REGIMES 5. History of Politics and Islam in Central Asia Early Empires and Islamization of Central Asia The Communist State and Islam in Central Asia General Comparison of Contemporary Regimes Demographic Situation Socio-economic Situation Political System and Government Bodies Comparison of the Contemporary Role of Religion in Politics Freedom of Religion and The Concept of Recognition Secularity in the Constitution Content of Religious Laws Institutions Involved with Religion Procedures Concerning Religion Comparison of Law Enforcement Security Strategies and Counter-Terrorism Laws Security Forces International Cooperation in the Security Sector Comparison of the Judiciary: Trials and Torture Typology of Religious and Counter-Terrorism Politics Typology of State Regulation of Folk Islam Typology of State Regulation of Non-Traditional Groups 236

8 PART III SECURITIZATION: THEORY AND SIMULATION MODEL 10. Securitization Theory: Legitimacy in Security Politics Legitimacy in Securitization Theory Vocabulary and Units of Analysis Securitization of Islam in Central Asia Model Description Overview and ODD-Protocol Simulation Setup Simulation Results: Revival of Islam Threatened Reference Objects Securitizing Moves Model Verification and Validation Sensitivity Analysis Verification: Mutual Reinforcement of Securitization Validation: Simulation Results and Empirical Data Conclusions Conclusions from Computer Simulation General Concluding Remarks 290 Literature 293 Appendix Appendix A: Official Documents and Websites 319 Appendix B: NetLogo Code for Simulation 321 Appendix C: Initial Values and Parameters for Simulation 324

9 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Muslim Population in Central Asia: Sunnis and Shiites 50 Table 2: Typology of Non-Traditional Islamic Groups 112 Table 3: Demographic Benchmarks 142 Table 4: Ethnic Composition of Central Asian Societies 144 Table 5: Religious Composition: Muslims and Christians 145 Table 6: Economic Benchmarks 147 Table 7: Poverty Benchmarks 151 Table 8: Numbers of Migrant Workers Abroad 153 Table 9: International Trading Partners 154 Table 10: Infrastructural Benchmarks 156 Table 11: Human Development Index 157 Table 12: Political Systems and Presidents 161 Table 13: Structure and Composition of Parliaments 165 Table 14: Freedom and Democracy Indices 169 Table 15: Religious Committees 196 Table 16: Muftiates and Muftis 202 Table 17: Paramilitary Resources 217 Table 18: Military Resources 221 Table 19: Political Terror Scale 230 Table 20: Legal Status of Salafi Groups in Central Asia 236 Table 21: Religious Persecution Index 239 Table 22: Detainees on Religious Grounds 240 Table 23: Securitization Theory in the Central Asian Context 252 Table 24: Conflict Assumptions for Vicious Circle Hypothesis 254 Table 25: Securitization in the Simulation 258 Table 26: ODD-Protocol 259 Table 27: Application of Data for Simulation Model 267 Table 28: Calculation of Context-Legitimacy 268 Table 29: Initial Values for Simulation 268 Table 30: Interactions of Agents 269 Table 31: Context-Legitimacy (Simulation Parameter) 272 Table 32: Capacities of Security Forces (Simulation Parameter) 273 Table 33: PTS (Simulation Parameter) 277 Table 34: Validation of Terrorist Attacks 283 Table 35: Validation of Timing of Securitizaton by State Actors 284

10 Table 36: Validation of Constraints on Religious Freedom 286 Table 37: Initial Values and Parameters for Simulation 324

11 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Numbers of Suicide Attacks in Central Asia 20 Figure 2: Repression-radicalization Hypothesis 23 Figure 3: Vicious-circle Hypothesis 26 Figure 4: Percentages of Muslims Identifying with a Sufi Order 63 Figure 5: Percentage of Muslims Supporting Folk Islam 67 Figure 6: Quran Reading by Central Asian Muslims 78 Figure 7: Approval for Terrorist Attacks Compared to Support for Sharia 84 Figure 8: Attitudes towards Political Islam among Central Asian Muslims 89 Figure 9: Relationship between Religion and Modernity 98 Figure 10: Preference for Democracy or a Powerful Leader 163 Figure 11: Frequency of Prayers and Visitation of Religious Services 234 Figure 12: Perception of Religious Policies by Central Asian Muslims 234 Figure 13: Different Religious Groups Compete for Influence 271 Figure 14: Unofficial Islam Supercedes Official Islam 272 Figure 15: Arbitrary Arrests Lead to Protest 274 Figure 16: Clouds of Protestors Gather 275 Figure 17: Political Islam s Share of Unofficial Islam 275 Figure 18: Radicalized Detainees Released asjjihadists 276 Figure 20: No Detentions and No Protests 281 Figure 21: Detentions and Protests 281 Figure 22: Protestors, Jihadists and Casualties 282 Figure 23: Simulation Results 289

12 LIST OF IMAGES Image 1: Mosque at Baytik Baatir Mazar 65 Image 2: Gravestone of Baytik Baatir s Friend 65 Image 3: Shayk at Baytik Baatir Mazar 66 Image 4: Meeting at the IRPT Headquarter in Dushanbe 95 Image 5: Kabiri, President of the IRPT 96 Image 6: Manas University in Bishkek 99 Image 7: Madrasa supported by Gülen Movement in Bishkek 101 Image 8: Gülen Radio Maral in Bishkek 102 Image 9: Kyrgyz Member of Tablighi Jama at 107 Image 10: Private Religious Class in Bishkek 192 Image 11: Kazakh Muftiate in Almaty 198

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14 Thanks This study is my doctoral thesis and was financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF). I am glad for having had this opportunity to work and do research in my special field of interest. First of all, my thanks go to my doctoral committee, consisting of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel (Institute for Strategic Studies, Wädenswil), Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof (University of Zurich) and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder (University of Basel). In particular, Albert Stahel strengthened my critical mind concerning world politics and the strategic decision-making of nation states. His faith in my scientific endeavours gave me the self-confidence to keep going with my work. My simulation model profited from the long-time simulation experience and advice of Armando Geller (co-founder of Scensei, and affiliated with the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University in Washington) and Lukas Schmid (head of the Institute for Innovation, Design und Engineering at the University of Applied Sciences of St. Gallen). Their critique enabled me to improve the model and made me realise that a lot would still have to be done to bring it up to date. Many people enriched this study by giving me formal or informal interviews in Central Asia. I cannot name all of them because some could face difficulties with their restrictive governments. I am very thankful for their hospitality and openness to discuss with me their religious and political worldviews. My Kyrgyz friends in Switzerland enabled me to come into contact with many people in the field and were always open to discuss the topic of my research with me. Without them this study would not have become as vivid, well-researched and detailed as it has. They helped me with their knowledge of local languages, by sharing their own research and life expe-

15 14 SECURITIZATION OF ISLAM IN CENTRAL ASIA riences with me, and by contacting their relatives and friends in the region. Aijamal Huonker was also employed by SNF in the project to do research in local online newspapers as well as on official websites, and also helped me to transcribe some interviews. Baktygul Karimova was especially helpful by advising me on how to do research in the field and by introducing me to many people in the field. Another special thanks I owe Lisa Harand. She enabled me to undertake a research trip to Central Asia by looking after my daughter during my interviews there. The wonderful pictures she took enrich this study with insights that words cannot capture. After a common vernissage we copublished a by-product of my dissertation the photobook Re- Islamisierung in Zentralasien. Our collaboration showed me that scientific research is even more valuable if it is illustrated in a way accessible to the broader public. My former English teacher, Lee Mackenzie, reviewed my texts carefully and I am indebted to him not only for grammar corrections but also for many comments on style. Except from myself, no-one read my texts as carefully as he did, and I think no-one will do so in the future. Apart from his professional help, I am very happy that he was on my side during the whole process of the development of this study. To take a broad view, without my employment at econcept AG, this study would have been much more difficult to accomplish. By giving me very good and flexible working conditions, Barbara Haering enabled me to work, complete my doctorate and also give birth and raise two wonderful girls all at the same time. Last but not least, I want to thank my friends and, most of all, my husband and family members who have been patient enough to enable me to fulfil this work which has become a matter that is close to my heart.