Intelligence Bulletin

Transcription

1 Intelligence Bulletin (U//FOUO) Islamic State Members and Supporters Continue to Incite for Lone Wolf Attacks in the West (U) Scope Central Florida Intelligence Exchange Brevard Indian River Lake Martin Orange Osceola Seminole St Lucie Volusia (U//FOUO) This bulletin was created by the Central Florida Intelligence Exchange (CFIX) in order to address continued posts on social media by Islamic State members and supporters, calling for lone wolf or small cell attacks in the West. The CFIX bases its analysis in this bulletin from open source reporting and internet postings with varying degrees of reliability, especially in regards to the true intention and capabilities of terrorist organizations and their supporters. This information is intended to support local, state and federal government agencies along with other entities in developing / prioritizing protective and support measures relating to an existing or emerging threat to homeland security. (U) Overview (U//FOUO) With their extensive online presence and effective media strategy, the Islamic State has been successful in motivating sympathizers to carry out attacks in the West. A recent example of their influence would be the attempted attack at the Muhammad Cartoon Art Exhibit in Garland, Texas by two Islamic State supporters, one of which had online connections to Islamic State members. (U//FOUO) On 14 May 2015, the Islamic State s Al-Furqan Media released an audio statement from Abu Bakr al-baghdadi. In the statement al-baghdadi encouraged Muslims everywhere to either make hijrah to the Islamic State or carry out attacks at home, he stated: So there is no excuse for any Muslim who is capable of performing hijrah to the Islamic State, or capable of carrying a weapon where he is, for Allah (the Blessed and Exalted) has commanded him with hijrah and jihad, and has made fighting obligatory upon him...and we call upon every Muslim in every place to perform hijrah to the Islamic State or fight in his land wherever that may be. (U//FOUO) In addition to al-baghdadi s statement, prominent Islamic State supporters and fighters have been distributing a significant amount of written and visual propaganda calling for lone wolf or small cell attacks in the West. The recurring theme throughout their messaging is the continued call for attacks against law enforcement and military. High confidence generally indicates judgments are based on high-quality information or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment. A high confidence judgment is not a fact, or a certainty, however, and such judgments still carry risk of being wrong. Medium confidence generally means information is credibly sourced and plausible but not sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a high level of confidence. Low confidence generally means the information s credibility or plausibility is questionable, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences or significant concerns or problems exist with respect HANDLING NOTICE: This information is the property of the CFIX and may be distributed to federal, state, tribal and local law enforcement, DoD and U.S. Intelligence Community personnel on a need-to-know basis. This document contains sensitive information FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY that cannot be released to the public, the media, or other personnel who do not have a valid "need-to-know" without prior CFIX approval. Further distribution without CFIX authorization is prohibited.

2 (U) Dates of Significance (U//FOUO) The CFIX has no specific or credible intelligence indicating any threats to Central Florida relating to forthcoming dates of significance. However, terrorist groups and extremist individuals, both domestic and international, are known to choose dates of significance to carry out attacks in order to cause greater emotional harm, which makes commemorative events an ideal target. (U//FOUO) On 24 April 2015, a Kiwi fighter with the Islamic State posted a YouTube video where he advised supporters in New Zealand and Australia: Commence your operations, even if it means you have to stab a few police officers, soldiers on Anzac Day. 1 (U//FOUO) On 18 April 2015, Australian police arrested five individuals who they believe were planning to attack law enforcement officers at an Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) Day ceremony. The alleged attackers planned to use weapons such as firearms, knives and vehicles. 2 (U//FOUO) On 19 March 2015, a female member of the Islamic State posted to her followers on Twitter a message suggesting the targeting of Veterans, Patriot, Memorial etc Day parades.. go on drive by s and spill all of their blood or rent a big truck and drive all over them. 3 (U//FOUO) In the weeks leading up to Ramadan and the first anniversary of the establishment of the Caliphate, the Islamic State will likely escalate ground activities and push out corresponding propaganda to incite and mobilize their supporters. Forthcoming Dates of Significance 25 May 2015 Memorial Day 18 June 2015 First Day of Ramadan 29 June 2015 Anniversary of the Establishment of the Islamic State s Caliphate 4 July 2015 Independence Day (U) Targeting Law Enforcement, Military and Government Personnel (U//FOUO) The CFIX assesses with medium confidence based on recent events and guidance provided in jihadist propaganda, that law enforcement officers, military personnel and government officials will continue to be targeted by HVEs inspired by the Islamic State and their supporters. In recent months, Islamic State supporters on Twitter have provided specific guidance for collecting information against Western security forces, using open source tools and physical surveillance, which can be used for future targeting. 4, 5 (U//FOUO) Listed below are recent samples of propaganda from the Islamic State and their supporters listing law enforcement, military and government officials as targets: (U//FOUO) In a Twitter post, a Western fighter with the Islamic State suggested that lone wolves could carry out an attack by sacrificing a car for the sake of Allah by using two tanks of cooking gas placed on back seat. Park in front of police station and light a fire.

3 (U//FOUO) A Western fighter with the Islamic State recent posted an image of a suicide belt with the following statement: Very discreet, easy to carry & concealed under the clothing. They d never know, walk into a police station (U//FOUO) In a series of posts on Twitter, an Islamic State supporter posted several targeting suggestions, which included: - Shooting up and bombing a veterans care center - Shooting up and bombing a Junior ROTC program - Shooting up and bombing recruitment centers - Killing families of Special Ops personnel responsible for killing OBL (U//FOUO) Listed below are recent suggestions from the Islamic State and their supporters for targeting law enforcement and military: 6 Hoax calls to lure officers to a remote area Spontaneous attacks using edged weapons Run down the targets with a vehicle Burning their homes, vehicles and businesses Targeting officers during shift change Placing explosive devices under police vehicles Small arms attacks such as Nidal Hasan s attack on Fort Hood (U) Exploitation of Political Unrest (U//FOUO) The CFIX assesses with medium confidence that the Islamic Statue and its supporters will continue to exploit racial tensions and anti-police sentiment in the U.S. as a means to mobilize individuals in the West to carry out retaliatory attacks. In recent months, members and supporters have utilized social media to exploit the current discontent in the U.S. over the perceived militarization of law enforcement. Through the use of trending hashtags related to anti-police demonstrations in Baltimore, Missouri, New York and Ohio, Islamic State supporters have encouraged mujahids in the West to use the demonstrations as a cover to carry out lone wolf attacks. 7 (U//FOUO) During the Baltimore riots, supporters of the Islamic State on Twitter retweeted posts describing how rioters cut holes in fire hoses to hinder firefighters from putting out building fires. They also made comments on how it seemed that rioters had developed sophisticated tactics such as strategically starting fires to divert police. (U//FOUO) In a Twitter post, an Islamic State supporter stated: America cant even handle a bunch of youths with bricks, what they gonna do when the Mujahideen arrive with IEDs and RPGs - #BaltimoreRiots. (U//FOUO) In a Twitter post, an Islamic State supporter stated: Fighting the corrupt police is a good thing. They are guard dogs of tyrants. Hope the protesters kill as many as possible. #BaltimoreRiots. (U//FOUO) In a Twitter post, an Islamic State supporter stated: They should behead any cops caught & bomb the rest till they retreat. Simple insurgency tactics would defeat the pigs. #BaltimoreRiots.

4 (U) Additional Targets Suggested by Islamic State Supporters (U//FOUO) In recent weeks, supporters and members of the Islamic State on Twitter have posted various calls for lone wolf attacks in the West. Many of these threats were directed towards military and law enforcement. However, the following targets were also mentioned: Hospitals High Schools Colleges / Universities Churches Amusement Parks Movie Theatres Buses / Train Stations (U) Outlook and Implications (U//FOUO) The CFIX assesses with medium confidence that the potential for lone offender attacks in the West, executed by HVEs inspired by the Islamic State and their supporters will remain elevated throughout the remainder of the year. With their extensive online presence and effective media strategy, the Islamic State with the assistance of their supporters has been successful and will likely see continued success in motivating sympathizers to carry out lone wolf attacks in the West. (U//FOUO) Based on historical guidance from terrorist organizations and current rhetoric from the Islamic State and their supporters, any location or individual in the West would be considered a viable target. However, the following targets have consistently been identified in recent propaganda: Military personnel and installations Law Enforcement Officers Government Officials Large Gatherings Critical Infrastructure Transportation Religious Institutions (U//FOUO) HVEs will most likely continue to use small explosives and firearms. Additionally, we will likely see more spontaneous attacks using knives, edged weapons and vehicles. (U) Reporting Notice (U) The Central Florida Intelligence Exchange is providing this bulletin for situational awareness. For additional information on this product, or to report suspicious activity, CFIX-Cyber@ocfl.net or call (407) (U) Entities and agencies outside the Central Florida Region should report suspicious activity to the appropriate law enforcement agency and their regional or state fusion center. (U) Tracked by: HSEC-8.1, HSEC-8.2, HSEC-8.5, HSEC-8.8

5 1 (U) Stuff, Police in Anzac Security Boost After Jihadist Video, police-in-anzac-security-boost-after-jihadist-video, 24 April (U) WSJ, Australia Arrests Five on Suspicion of Anzac Day Terrorism Plot, 18 April (U) BuzzFeed, Gone Girl: An Interview with an American in ISIS, 17 April (U//FOUO) CFIX Intelligence Bulletin, Islamic State Supporter Initiates Intelligence Campaign for Lone Wolf Attacks Targeting Law Enforcement, Military and Government Officials, 4 March (U//FOUO) CFIX Intelligence Assessment, Jihadist Propaganda Provides Guidance for Lone Offender Attacks Against Law Enforcement, 10 October (U//FOUO) CFIX Intelligence Bulletin, Islamic State Supporter Initiates Intelligence Campaign for Lone Wolf Attacks Targeting Law Enforcement, Military and Government Officials, 4 March (U//FOUO) CFIX Intelligence Bulletin, Islamic State Supporters Attempt to Use Current Unrest in the U.S. to Encourage Lone Wolf Attacks; Recirculate Guidance for Targeting Law Enforcement, 12 December 2014