Succession in Saudi Arabia Q

Transcription

1 Succession in Saudi Arabia Q

2 This page intentionally left blank

3 Succession in Saudi Arabia Q Joseph A. Kechichian

4 ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / SUCCESSION IN SAUDI ARABIA Joseph A. Kechichian, 2001 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published 2001 by PALGRAVE 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE is the new global publishing imprint of St. Martin s Press LLC Scholarly and Reference Division and Palgrave Publishers Ltd (formerly Macmillan Press Ltd). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kechichian, Joseph A. Succession in Saudi Arabia / Joseph A. Kechichian p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Saudi Arabia Politics and government 20th century. 2. Saudi Arabia Kings and rulers Succession. I. Title. DS K dc A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Letra Libre, Inc. First edition: June

5 For Angelica, who gives meaning to it all

6

7 Contents Acknowledgments A Note on Transliteration xi xiii Introduction 1 The Kingdom in the Twentieth Century Decision-Makers Succession and Heir Apparent Abdallah Prince Sultan and the Sudayri Seven King Fahd s Outlook King Fahd s Offspring Pressures on Succession The Influences of Religion and Tribal Behavior on Succession The Legacy of Islamic Succession The Legacy of the Ottoman Empire The Legacy of the Rashid Dynasty Lessons Learned Methodological Approach Chapter 1 The Current Generation 23 The Al Saud Family: Size and Structure The Legacy of King Abdul Aziz Seniority Maternal Lineage Full Brothers Grandsons of Abdul Aziz Characteristics Descendants of Abdul Aziz s Brothers Cadet Branches Aristocratic Families The Succession Issue Before King Fahd King Saud bin Abdul Aziz Assessment

8 viii King Faysal bin Abdul Aziz Assessment King Khalid bin Abdul Aziz Assessment King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz Succession and Heir Apparent Abdallah Prince Sultan and the Sudayri Seven King Fahd s Outlook The Succession Dilemma Chapter 2 The Next Generation 71 The 1992 Edict Salman bin Abdul Aziz New Leaders Biographical Details Muhammad bin Fahd Abdul Aziz bin Fahd Mit ab bin Abdallah Khaled bin Sultan Bandar bin Sultan Abdul Aziz bin Salman Sultan bin Salman Saud bin Faysal Turki bin Faysal Fahad bin Abdallah bin Muhammad Secularism, Religiousity, and Political Participation Regional Rivalries Western Encroachment Oil Policy Potential Alliances Cadet Branches of the Al Saud Chapter 3 Perceptions of Security Concerns 91 The Alliance with the Religious Establishment King Abdul Aziz and the Ikhwan Crises Under Saud bin Abdul Aziz ( ) The 1970s Challenge to Prince Abdallah Uprisings in the Eastern Province ( ) The 1979 Makkah Mosque Takeover and the Neo-Ikhwan Sunni Extremism

9 ix Stability and Factionalism in the Armed Forces Uprisings in the 1950s Royal Saudi Air Force Defections (1962) Coup Plots ( ) The Armed Forces in the War for Kuwait Security Perceptions The Religious Opposition The Al Saud Response The Worldly Opposition The CDLR s Influence The Al Saud Response The Iraqi Threat The Iranian Threat Elite Views Toward Iran Evolving Elite Views Toward Iran An Assessment of the Iraqi and Iranian Threats Chapter 4 Direction of Family 129 A Family Corrective Move The Challenge The Response Military Opposition The Challenge The Response Revolution and Disintegration The Challenge The Response An Assessment of the Three Responses Chapter 5 An Assessment of the New Alliances 141 Ruling Family Politics An Assessment of the New Alliances Conclusion Appendices 1. Interviews Chronology Mainline of Succession and Cadet Branches Twentieth-Century Al Saud Leaders 171

10 x 5. Maternal Linkages Among Sons of King Abdul Aziz The Sons of Abdul Aziz Leading Grandsons of Abdul Aziz Provincial Governors The Cabinet (June 1999) Leading Religious Figures in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Secular Petition to King Fahd (December 1990) Religious Petition to King Fahd (February 1991) King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz: Address to the Nation on the New Laws, March 1, The Basic Law of Government The Majlis al-shura Law The Law of the Provinces Heir Apparent Abdallah: Address to Majlis al-shura (January 13, 1996) 241 Notes 243 Bibliography 267 Index 279

11 Acknowledgements The publication of this book is the clearest indication that the Al Saud have reached a very high level of political maturity. Inasmuch as the subject is sensitive, the mere fact that so many Saudis both from the ruling family as well as among the Kingdom s intellectual community found merit in discussing it with an outsider demonstrates that what was once a taboo subject has become common. To an analyst, this is a solid sign of political emancipation, yet another indication of how strong the family s foundation is. In the course of writing this book, as well as its companion volume on The National Security of Saudi Arabia (coauthored with Theodore W. Karasik, forthcoming), I visited the Kingdom on three separate occasions. Appendix 1 lists the individuals who were interviewed for both volumes and I thank them all. There are, nevertheless, several individuals who deserve special accolades. First, I wish to thank HRH Dr. Faysal bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, now a professor of political science at King Saud University in Riyadh. My genuine respect and affection for him is based on a firm belief that Prince Faysal is a true Al Saud. His intervention with the Ministry of Information opened several doors that, in turn, allowed me to exchange views with a slew of individuals. I hasten to add, however, that Prince Faysal is not responsible for my analysis. Dr. Fouad Al-Farsy, the Kingdom s affable minister of information, was equally generous with his time. I thank him for instructing his ministry to make the necessary arrangements during my visits to Riyadh and Jeddah. Finally, I owe a special debt of gratitude to Drs. Abdul Aziz Al-Fayez and Othman Y. Al- Rawaf, both of whom are now members of the Majlis al-shura. My friendship with them is long-standing, ever since their tenures at King Saud University. Both have always welcomed me and entertained my fallacious opinions, even if we held different views on a variety of subjects. Although the idea for this study first crossed my mind while I was at the RAND Corporation, it was Dr. Samantha Ravich, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., who ensured its realization. In her capacity as the international security and

12 xii Succession in Saudi Arabia foreign policy program officer with the Smith Richardson Foundation (in Westport, Connecticut), Dr. Ravich encouraged me to apply for a grant that, fortunately, was approved in the fall of As I had just started my own consulting firm after leaving the RAND Corporation under difficult circumstances the opportunity was doubly satisfying. Drs. Marin Strmecki and Dale Stewart, also from the Smith Richardson Foundation, proved to be congenial colleagues, as they approved a timely extension to complete my work and coordinated the grant s various requirements at the University of California in Los Angeles (UCLA). At UCLA, Drs. Irene Bierman and Afaf Lutfi al-sayyid Marsot, respectively the director and the deputy director of the G. E. von Grunebaum Center for Near Eastern Studies, have hosted me between the fall of 1998 and the spring of Both encouraged this and other endeavors and along with a number of UCLA students who attended my seminar on the subject provided useful comments at an early stage. I am grateful to both for their support. It is a remarkable coincidence that my association with UCLA and especially Dr. al-sayyid Marsot should move in the direction it is, given that she published my first scholarly work on Saudi Arabia in the International Journal of Middle East Studies, back in I have always cherished her confidence in my work. I also thank Jonathan Friedlander, Susan E. Sims, Natalie Jacob, Lisette Hurtado Mora, Diane James, and Tamika Merrick, all with the Center s administration. Anthony Scardino, one of my students from Pepperdine University (where I taught a course on the Persian Gulf in the fall of 1998), and Theodore W. Karasik, my longtime research colleague, provided solid assistance and I thank both of them for their help. Professor R. Hrair Dekmejian from the Department of Political Science at the University of Southern California was kind enough to read the manuscript in its draft from and offer various comments. I thank this accomplished scholar, who knows Saudi Arabia well, for both his time and his numerous recommendations. Finally, the Palgrave team deserves special accolades for preparing the manuscript for publication. Karen Wolny, my editor, Ella Pearce, Sonia Wilson, and Rick Delaney all proved to be dedicated to this effort. Rodney Williams copyedited the text with skill. I thank each one for performing well beyond the call of duty.

13 A Note on Transliteration Amodified version of the Library of Congress transliteration system has been adopted throughout the book. In rendering Arabic words and names, however, I relied on the style used by the International Journal of Middle East Studies. Thus a name that is commonly rendered in English, for example Mohamed, becomes Muhammad, and Mecca becomes Makkah. Whenever known, I used the common English spellings for proper names, as well as for names of countries. Thus Fahd rather than Fahad (although the latter is used if the individual writes his name with that spelling) and Saudi Arabia rather than Su udi Arabia. Because this study deals extensively with personalities, and since so many names sound identical, an effort has been made to identify individuals by their names, their fathers first names, and, whenever possible, their grandfathers first names thus, Heir Apparent Prince Abdallah bin Abdul Aziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud, instead of Prince Abdallah. In a few cases, including with Heir Apparent Abdallah, the full name is not repeated each and every time, to avoid excessive verbiage. For practical purposes, all diacritical marks for long vowels and velarized consonants have been eliminated. Arabic speakers will know the correct reference for the transliterated words throughout the text.