CONGREGATIONS ON THE GROW: SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS IN THE U.S. CONGREGATIONAL LIFE STUDY

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1 CONGREGATIONS ON THE GROW: SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS IN THE U.S. CONGREGATIONAL LIFE STUDY The U.S. Congregational Life Survey (USCLS) was a poll of individuals who attend church or other worship facilities in the United States of America. On the same weekend in April, 2001, more than 300,000 worshipers in over 2000 congregations associated with more than 50 denominations and religions completed a four-page questionnaire. The instrument was comprehensive, containing scores of items covering areas such as property and geography, congregational size and attendance records, community involvement, social services, spiritual growth, history of the congregation, congregational practices, staffing, and worship activities. The USCLS originated from the Research Services Office of the Presbyterian Church (USA) in Louisville, Kentucky under the direction of Cynthia Woolever, then Associate for Congregational Studies. USCLS used the same generic questionnaire in every congregation, which in some cases used multiple terms in order to be relevant to the many different faith groups involved. In addition to the survey of attenders, USCLS requested that a key informant from each congregation complete a congregational profile form and also included a questionnaire describing the pastor or leader of each congregation. The latter questionnaire was a piggyback on the USCLS research from a study of pastoral leadership by Duke University. The Seventh-day Adventist Church in the United States was invited to be one of the participants in the study. Over 500 randomly-chosen Adventist congregations were encouraged to participate, and 131 agreed to take part in the study. However, 94 congregations actually -1-

2 returned data - all of them with completed attender questionnaires filled out by 5,596 worshipers. All but one of these congregations also completed a congregational profile. Previous papers have reported on the survey of attenders, particularly in comparing Adventist worshipers with the national averages of all faith groups participating in the study. This paper will deal with the 93 congregations that completed the congregational profile - specifically what items tend to predict growing or declining congregations. One of the items on the survey gathered information on average weekly attendance from 1996 to A growth or loss percentage for each congregation was calculated and correlated with other survey items to determine those characteristics of fast-growing churches. Areas probed were community involvement, social services, spiritual growth, political and theological orientation, and life-style standards. Some Congregational Descriptors For the average attendance at worship services in 1996, 18 churches did not give a figure. Presumably, they did not have records that far back. Of those that did answer, 37 had between 1 and 50; 16 had between 51 and 100; 16 had between 101 and 200; and 6 had more than 201 in average attendance. By 2001, only 4 were not able to answer; 37 still had 1 to 50; 22 had 51 to 100; 21 had between 101 and 200; and 9 had more than 201 in average attendance. -2-

3 Therefore, as recently as 2001, nearly two-thirds (64%) had fewer than 100 members in average attendance at worship services. While Adventists have some large churches, particularly in connection with major institutions, most churches are small. The most common method of reaching out to non-members is encouraging present members to invite people they know (88%). This is followed by mailing or distributing newsletters, letters, or flyers (76%) and sponsoring outreach services or other events aimed at the general public (72%). At the bottom of the list of 14 options is trying to identify and contact people who have recently moved into the area (13%). Out of a possible 23 social-service or community activities, the most employed by far was emergency relief or material assistance (78%). Next came health-related programs at 53%. Only one church engaged in political or social justice activities, and no congregations provided activities for unemployed people. While the majority of congregations do utilize small groups, only 19% of them make these groups part of their strategy to involve people in community service or mission. Once people have joined the congregation, sustained growth requires procedures to retain them. For this purpose, 73% have a plan of follow-up visits by clergy or lay members, and 54% attempt to assign the new members to some task within the congregation or in service to the community. About half use electronic mail to communicate with members or attenders. Practices Related to Increased Attendance Pearson correlations (r) were calculated between the Congregational Growth Rate (CGR) and various internal and out-reach practices. Ten items proved to be significant beyond the.05-3-

4 level - four of these beyond the.01 level. Table 1 displays these correlations in the descending order of strength. TABLE 1 CORRELATIONS OF USCLS VARIABLES WITH CONGREGATIONAL GROWTH RATES USCLS Variable Correlation Significance _ 1. Congregation has prohibitions against dancing Provided sporting events/teams in previous 12 months Congregation has prohibitions against gambling Provided voter registration/education last 12 months Congregation has sound financial base Placed paid ad in newspaper in last 12 months Congregation tends to be politically liberal Congregation founded more recently Congregation has some type of prayer groups Calls on homes of people who visit congregations Some of these correlations may be counter-intuitive. Numbers 1 and 3 are both negative correlations. This indicates that congregations that do not have specific prohibitions against dancing and gambling were more likely to increase in attendance over the five-year period in question. It is rather unlikely that few if any Adventist churches are promoting either dancing or -4-

5 gambling. A more likely explanation is that these prohibitions are symbols for congregations that are more law-oriented and strict on standards in general. It is suggested that churches that do not make rules of behavior their major emphasis are more likely to attract new people with a message of grace. The other negative correlation is number 6. Perhaps putting out-reach emphasis on ads in papers is not the best way to attract newcomers. It may be that growing churches are more likely to work with a personal people-to-people approach. This is supported by the inclusion of number 10 where members call on the homes of people who visit their congregations. Note that number 10 does not quite reach significance by the conservative.05 standard, but it is very close. It was decided to include it because of this (some behavioral scientists use the more liberal.10 standard) and because it offers an excellent counterpoint to number 6. Congregations that offer services appealing to people with a wide variety of needs tend to increase attendance. Correlations 2 and 4 - sporting events and voter registration/education - may be taken as proxies for this whole concept. People are attracted to places where their felt needs are being met. Congregations with stronger financial resources (number 5) are in better position to offer such services. In order to meet human needs, it is necessary to have assets. Congregations that are financially strapped have difficulty in providing a wide variety of services such as noted above. Correlation number 7 is a little difficult to explain. Politics in and of themselves would have little to do with church growth. But research has shown that people who are politically liberal tend to be somewhat theologically liberal - though there is not a one-to-one -5-

6 correspondence. So this may be tapping the same root as numbers 1 and 3. Congregations that are more open and accepting are more likely to encourage visitors to return. Correlation number 8 notes that congregations founded more recently tend to grow more than those that have been established longer. Newer congregations will have fewer inactive members and often a younger membership. They may also be more open to new ideas and approaches to community outreach. Finally, congregations that employ small prayer groups are more likely to increase in attendance. This is not only because God honors their faith but also because they give new contacts a place to become involved. Newcomers are invited to belong to a group where they can know all members personally and where they can have a sense of belonging and family. While each of these correlations is important in itself, the ten do not necessarily make a compact package. This is because there is overlap between the variance of the CGR being explained by the various items. For example, numbers 1 and 3 both touch on the same theme so both are not necessary in constructing a package that will explain relationships to growing congregations. The variance is removed by a statistical method known as multiple regression. The program will create an equation that first picks the item with the highest correlation with CGR (number 1). Then it examines the remaining variables to determine which will add the next most predictive power to the equation. It continues this way until no more variables can be added that will significantly improve the equation in its correlation with CGR. In the present case four of the ten significant variables were selected to make a package which will be the best predictor of church attendance increase - given the variables that are available. Table 2 displays the regression. -6-

7 TABLE 2 REGRESSION OF SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES ON CONGREGATIONAL GROWTH RATES Step Variable R R 2 Beta+ 1 Congregation has prohibitions against dancing * 2 Provided sporting events/teams in last year # 3 Congregation tends to be politically liberal * 4 Voter registration/education in last 12 months # _ + betas for step 4 # significant beyond the.05 level * significant beyond the.01 level As noted, all four variables in this equation are significant-two beyond the.05 level and two beyond the.01 level. The R column gives the multiple correlation. It rises with each new item added until no further items from the present set would be significant at the.05 level. Thus this package of four items correlates with congregational growth rate at a very strong correlation in behavioral science research. The R 2 column gives the square of each correlation in the previous column. These figures may be interpreted to show the variance between the package and CGR. In other words, these four variables, when taken together, predicts about 47% of the variance in growth rates, leaving about 53% to be predicted by a variety of other items. Since people and congregations face so many factors that influence their behavior, it is never possible to determine -7-

8 all of these. Most remain unknown. However, a prediction of 46% is considered very strong in research of this type. The column marked beta may be interpreted as showing the relative strength that each item contributes to the package. Thus step 1 at is more than twice as influential as step 2 at.210 in contributing to the understanding of what influences growth in church attendance. Each step in the equation is marked by a beta, but these betas change as additional items are added to the equation. As noted, the betas listed are those from the final four-step model. It is important to note that the prediction of 46% of variance in CGR is effective only when all four items are in the equation. A different package would predict differently. However, this model is the best that can be obtained from the items included on the questionnaire. Additional items might yield stronger or weaker results. It is impossible to know without trying them. In drawing conclusions, it is well to remember - as noted above - that the specific items like dancing or voter registration may not be important in themselves. Rather they function as proxies for background attitudes and practices. The four items in the regression suggest two major themes. First, a congregation that is not forbidding and legalistic but one that is caring, accepting, and considers people more valuables than rules. Second, a congregation that seeks to serve both its members and its wider community by providing services that meet felt needs of a variety of persons. Such a congregation is likely to see an increase in attendance over a period of years. It is a place where people feel at home. -8-

New Presbyterian Congregations

The U.S. Congregational Life Survey New Presbyterian Congregations Deborah Bruce Katie Duncan Joelle Kopacz Cynthia Woolever 2013 Published by Research Services A Ministry of the Presbyterian Mission Agency