The Roman empire ended, the Mongol empire ended, the Persian empire ended, the British empire ended, all empires end, and none lasts forever.

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1 BASIC ARGUMENTATION Alfred Snider, University of Vermont World Schools Debate Academy, Slovenia, 2015 Induction, deduction, causation, fallacies INDUCTION Definition: studying a sufficient number of analogous factual examples, finding a common characteristic, and naming it as a general law or truth. Looking at examples to construct a generalization. From the specific to the general. Useful in proving propositions of past or present fact or value. Historical trends. Public opinion polls. Social science research. Whether a current or past policy is working. We accept many generalizations even though they may not always be true. The Roman empire ended, the Mongol empire ended, the Persian empire ended, the British empire ended, all empires end, and none lasts forever. CHARACTERISTICS OF INDUCTION Examples must be factual. Examples must be analogous same type, species or category. Sufficient number of factual examples. Conclusion is a generalization Features an inductive leap. May use fact or statistical terms and methods. USE OF INDUCTION Induction and the sampling process, not a complete counting. Public opinion polls controlled, uncontrolled, range of error. Case study method lot of knowledge from one example, can add to it.

2 Experimental study number of examples can be reduced by using a control group. Critical thinking example. Empirical method objective, trained observer-reporting observations. Induction and universal laws many things do not need to be proven separately but are accepted rain makes you wet, all humans die, falling objects can hurt us, etc. Induction is the way in which we learn most things early in life. LINES OF ARGUMENT ON INDUCTION Are the facts true? Are the examples isolated or universal New Orleans vs. many cities on organized crime. Do examples cover a proper period of time many times, now, long period of time. Are the examples typical or atypical? Are there significant negative instances? Is the conclusion properly stated? So what? Truth of an argument does not make it significant. DEDUCTION Is useful for: Determining future possibilities Propositions conditioned by if Choice between alternatives Defined: Deductive reasoning is that form of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn from premises. That which is proven is always the conclusion. The syllogism: Humans die (major premise, general truth) You are a human (middle premise, specific) Therefore, you will die (conclusion, general applied to specific) The enthymeme: One of the three statements is generally omitted.

3 This involves the audience, and they are more persuaded when they participate Plus it avoids condescension. Testing an enthymeme involves finding the missing part, inserting it, and seeing if the argument still works. Types of deduction Categorical deduction: Assertion about a category of persons, places or things Specific case is in that category Therefore, the assertion is true of that specific case Faculty members at UVM have advanced degrees Ms. Windplenty is a UVM faculty member Therefore, Ms. Windplenty has an advanced degree Major premise may be untrue or unproven: some people at UVM teach based on their life experience, not with advanced degrees. Minor premise may be untrue or unproven: Ms. Windplenty is not a UVM faculty member Conclusion is untrue: not all members of that category have that characteristic. Utah is conservative state, Mary is from Utah, Mary is conservative. Conclusion is untrue: characteristic is not confined to just that category. Terrorists believe in destruction of property for their cause, ALF believe in destruction of property for their cause, therefore they are terrorists. Use the word only to reveal this flaw. Avoid overstatement. Wrong use of major term. Cats are animals, dogs are not cats, and therefore dogs are not animals. If only cats are animals, then it would be true. Wrong use of minor term. All judges are trained in law, all judges are citizens, and therefore all citizens are trained in law. Conclusion should be some citizens re trained in law. Middle term must be used universally to have a universally. Democrats believe in national health care coverage, Mary

4 believes in national health care coverage, therefore Mary is a democrat; you need to say only democrats. Fallacy of four terms. Stripped down, a deductive categorical argument should have only three terms. People of India are Asians, Chinese are Orientals, and therefore Indians are Orientals. Two negative premises: no sound conclusion from two negatives. Americans are not Asians, Europeans are not Americans, and therefore Europeans are Asians. Disjunctive deduction: Two possible outcomes are outlined, one is negated, and the other is proven. Identified by the terms either or or. For you to pass the course you must either study harder or the professor must become more lenient; the professor will not become more lenient, therefore in order to pass you must study harder. Tactics for analyzing disjunctive deduction: False or unproven major premise. Other alternatives not mentioned. Do both. Deny alternative that is affirmed. Affirm alternative that is denied. Hypothetical deduction: different from cause Differing conditions can influence the outcome of something. Expression of a hypothetical or conditional relationship. If is the key word to look for. If our captain cannot play tonight we will lose the game, our captain cannot play tonight, we will lose the game. If it had rained, the ground would be wet; the ground is not wet; therefore it did not rain. Tactics: Major premise affirms the conditional clause, conclusion must affirm the result. Captain argument If the minor premise denies the result, the conclusion must deny the conditional clause. Rain argument

5 Other forces may be at work. If we increase spending for education it will improve, we will not increase spending, therefore it will not improve. Apply lines of reasoning about causation. CAUSATION: one thing leads to another Cigarette smokers get lung cancer, you smoke, so you will get lung cancer Cause a leads to effect b 1. Look at conditions - some crucial, some irrelevant. 2. Locate a precipitating cause, right before the effect. 3. Look for alternate and remote causes. 4. Look for strength of causation of one factor vs. Others. 5. Look for the necessary cause. 6. Look for sufficient cause. 7. Look for absence of a blocking cause. 8. Look for reciprocal causes that feed on each other. FALLACIES 1. Hasty Generalization 2. Transfer fallacies: Fallacy of composition: true of part is true of whole Fallacy of division: true of whole is true of part Fallacy of refutation: straw person 3. Irrelevant arguments - non-sequiturs does not follow. 4. Circular reasoning: conclusion is restatement of claim. 5. Avoiding the issue Evasion Attack the person Shifts in ground Seizing a trivial point - red herring 6. False dichotomy - bring lunch OR walk to school. 7. Appeal to ignorance - failure to disprove is not proof. Atlantis. 8. Appeal to the crowd - bandwagon effect 9. Appeal to emotions - no substitute for reasoning 10. Appeal to authority - no substitute for reasoning 11. Appeal to tradition - no substitute for reasoning 12. Appeal to humor - no substitute for reasoning

6 13. Ambiguity & equivocation - different use of words, change meaning. 14. Technical jargon. 15. Post hoc fallacy. 16. Damning the origin 17. Wishful thinking 18. Lip service 19. Personification 20. Cultural bias 21. Pointing to another wrong 22. Nothing but objections 23. Demand for perfection. Identify the fallacy (or fallacies) found in the following political arguments. 1. BUSH claimed he would fight budget deficits both in 2000 and He never changed that position, and deserves credit for that. 2. After Pahor was elected the Slovenian economy did poorly, and we should punish in the next election. 3. We are changing so fast that we are losing our true Slovenian roots. Slovenia needs to retain its traditional ways of doing things. 4. The recent attack on homosexuals in Slovenia is the fault of the police minister for not protecting them.. 5. Democrats are the more liberal party in America. Therefore, their candidate will be a liberal. 6. If you are a laborer, you should vote for the UK Labour party! 7. Because Jankovic have not solved Ljubljana's problems, it is time for a change, time to vote for someone else. 8. If violence leads to more violence, Why did WW2 end? Violence does not lead to more violence. 9. America needs to move more cautiously. Uncle Sam is old and tired and needs a rest. 10. The EU is the world's foremost democracy. Other nations who want to be democratic need to copy the EU system. 11. Berlusconi vacations in Sardinia with young scantily dressed models, he cannot be trusted to govern Italy. 12. Merkel brought shame on Germany by allowing herself to be photographed at the beach showing her bare butt 13. Republican: I'm not running against Obama, I'm running against his Socialist ideology. We all know Socialism has failed.

7 14. Gordon Brown had a mental breakdown. If I told you how I found out you would all know my sources. 15. Berlusconi is a rich media man, so he won't make decisions in the interests of the common person. 16.If the Slovenian government wants to spend more on social programs, they will have to raise taxes. 17. Putin met with space aliens in 2007, and it cannot be disproven. 18. Since Obama is going to win, voting for his opponent is throwing your vote away. 19. Republicans love the USA flag more than Barack Obama. Only patriots should be president.

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