Trends in International Religious Demography. Todd M. Johnson Gina A. Zurlo

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1 Trends in International Religious Demography Todd M. Johnson Gina A. Zurlo

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10 World Christian Encyclopedia 1 st edition

11 World Christian Database World Religion Database Updated quarterly 234 countries 9,000+ Christian denominations 13,0000+ ethnic groups 5,000+ cities 3,000+ provinces

12 Atlas of Global Christianity

13 The World s Religions in Figures An Introduction to International Religious Demography

14 International religious demography Definition Demography: statistical study of human population characteristics Size, fertility, mortality, migration, net growth, location Social demography: broader array of human characteristics related to populations Health, economics, language, religion Religious demography: the scientific and statistical study of the demographic characteristics of religious populations, primarily with respect to their size, age-sex structure, density, growth, distribution, development, migration, and vital statistics, including the change of religious identity within human populations and how these characteristics relate to other social and economic indicators.

15 Three unique features International Interdisciplinary Chronological

16 The world s religions Indigenous religions Judaism Christianity Islam Hinduism Buddhism East Asian religions Christianity Confucianism Hinduism Buddhism Yoruba religion Judaism Daoism Atheism Christianity Islam Unaffiliated Hinduism Buddhism Folk religion Judaism Other religions Christianity Islam Hinduism Agnosticism Buddhism Chinese folk-religion Ethnoreligion Atheism New religions Sikhism Judaism Spiritism Confucianism Daoism Baha i Jainism Shinto Zoroastrianism

17 Major sources Censuses Surveys & polls Data collected from religious communities

18 Census: Religion Scotland, 2011 Ireland, 2011 England, 2011

19 Census: Ethnicity New Zealand, 2006 USA, 2010

20 Limitations of censuses Honest response Who is counted? Selecting responses from a set list Ethnicity & religion assumptions

21 Surveys & polls Demographic surveys General population surveys World Values Survey, 2005

22 Limitations of surveys & polls Small sample size Non-response Response bias World Values Survey,

23 Data from religious communities Births, deaths, baptisms, personnel, finance, etc.

24 Limitations of data from religious communities Definition of membership Risk of inflation

25 Asking the question One-step census approach vs. two-step survey approach

26 One-step approach 2001 Bulgarian census [One Step choose one] Faith: 1. Orthodox 2. Catholic 3. Protestant 4. Sunni Muslim 5. Shi a Muslim 6. Other 99. None given

27 Two-step approach 1999 Bulgaria European Values Survey [Step 1] Do you have a religious affiliation? A Yes go to question 23 B No go to question 24a [Step 2 if Yes Show Card 23] 23 Which one? Orthodox 1 Muslim 2 Catholic 3 Protestant 4 Other 5

28 Results Different methods yield different results Bulgaria:)Census)vs)Survey) Orthodox& &Not&stated&;&Not&applicable& 83& 59& 4& 27& Census&2001& EVS&2008& 1999

29 Current trends 1. The world is getting more religious 2. Changes in Chinese-folk religion, Islam, and ethnic religions 3. Christianity has shifted to the global South 4. Future projections 5. Diversity & migration

30 The world is getting more religious

31 Chinese folk religion is disappearing Muslims are growing the fastest Ethnic religions are declining

32 Global religion, 1910

33 Global religion, 2010

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35 Africa s religious transformation

36 Global Christian %, % 75% 50% 25% 0%

37 Shift of Christianity to the Global South 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Africa Asia Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania 20% 10% 0%

38 Pew Report projections to 2050 Fastest growing religion 40% 35% 30% Muslims 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

39 Pew Report projections to 2050 Christianity (no conversions) 40% 35% 30% Christians Muslims 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

40 CSGC projections to million more Christians 40% 35% 30% Christians Muslims 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

41 Christians in China Projected to ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Pew 50,000,

42 Christians in China Projected to ,000,000 CSGC 200,000, ,000, ,000,000 Pew 50,000,

43 Asia s religious diversity

44 Religious diversity Religions over 5%

45 Migration

46 Pew Forum s Faith on the Move report

47 Religion of Migrants

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49 Christians living in religious diversity

50 Muslims living in religious diversity

51 Non-religious living in religious diversity

52 Ongoing research Measuring sub-traditions within religions Supporting correlation studies Mapping and graphing religion

53 Yearbook of International Religious Demography 14mm 30mm YEARBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS DEMOGRAPHY 2014 The 2015 issue highlights both global and local realities in religious adherence, from the demographics of the world s atheists to the emigration of Christians WORLD RELIGIONS IN from the Middle East.2013 Other case IN studies FIGURES include inter-religious marriage patterns in Austria, Muslim immigration to Australia, and methodological challenges in counting Hasidic Jews. Brian J. Grim, Ph.D. (2005), Pennsylvania State University, is President of the Religious Freedom & Business Foundation, an affiliated scholar at Georgetown and Boston Universities, and a member of the World Economic Forum s council on the role of faith. Brian J. Grim, Todd M. Todd M. Johnson, Ph.D. (1993), William Carey International University, is Associate Professor of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Edited Seminary. He isby co-author of the World Christian Encyclopedia (Oxford, 2001) and co-editorvegard of the Atlas of Global Christianity Johnson, Skirbekk, Gina A.(Edinburgh, Zurlo 2009). Vegard Skirbekk, Ph.D. (2005), Rostock University, is a professor at Columbia University. His research is on religious fertility differentials and the global distribution and future of religion. Gina A. Zurlo (Ph.D. candidate), Boston University, is a Research Associate at Boston University s Institute of Culture, Religion and World Affairs and Assistant Director of the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary. brill.com/yird issn: YEARBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS DEMOGRAPHY 2015 Grim, Johnson, Skirbekk, Zurlo (Eds.) YEARBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS DEMOGRAPHY 2014 WORLD RELIGIONS IN 2013 IN FIGURES Grim, Johnson, Skirbekk, Zurlo (Eds) The Yearbook of International Religious Demography presents an annual snapshot of the state of religious statistics around the world. Every year large amounts of data are collected through censuses, surveys, polls, religious communities, scholars, and a host of other sources. These data are collated and analyzed by research centers and scholars around the world. Large amounts of data appear in analyzed form in the World Religion Database (Brill), aiming at a researcher s audience. The Yearbook presents data in sets tables and scholarly articles spanning social science, demography, history, and geography. Each issue offers findings, sources, methods, and implications surrounding international religious demography. Each year an assessment is made of new data made available since the previous issue of the yearbook. YEARBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS DEMOGRAPHY 2015 Edited by Brian J. Grim, Todd M. Johnson, Vegard Skirbekk, Gina A. Zurlo