How can you combat your mental set? With lateral thinking.

Transcription

1 How can you combat your mental set? With lateral thinking. An old money-lender offered to cancel a merchant s debt and keep him from going to prison if the merchant would give the money-lender his lovely daughter. Horrified yet desperate, the merchant and his daughter agreed to let Providence decide. The money-lender said he would put a black pebble and a white pebble in a bag and the girl would draw one. The white pebble would cancel the debt and leave her free. The black one would make her the moneylender s, although the debt would be canceled. If she refused to pick, her father would go to prison. From the pebble-strewn path they were standing on, the moneylender picked two pebbles and quickly put them in the bag, but the girl saw he had picked up two black ones. What would you have done if you were the girl to play the money-lender s game and win.

2 Solution to the money lender problem On first impression it would seem there were only these possibilities: 1) she refuse to take a pebble 2) she show that there were two black pebbles exposing the cheating moneylender 3) she pick a black pebble and sacrifice herself for her father's debt. The girl nervously picked a pebble out of the bag, fumbled and dropped it on the ground so that it couldn t be known what color it was. She then said: "Oh I m so foolish, but never mind, we can look in the bag and see the color of the pebble that is left and we will know what color my pebble was." Can you think of another?

3 Solution to the money lender problem she could just pick the one of the pebbles out of the bag, and rather than open her hand, just have them look in the bag to determine what pebble she has. Any more? Really, any more? I m tapped out

4 How are our judgments and decisions influenced? Misuse of heuristics Overconfidence Belief Bias Belief Perseverance

5 Representativeness Heuristic Who went to Harvard? My friend Dan is a smart dude, but did not go to Harvard (but he looks like he did). If I tell you that Sonia Dara is a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model, you would make certain quick judgments (heuristics) about her like about her interests or intelligence. She is an economics major at Harvard University. Judging a situation based on how similar the aspects are to the prototypes the person holds in their mind. Like thinking everyone from Decatur is preppy, or someone with glasses is nerdy, or a blonde is not smart.

6 Representativeness Heuristic Linda is 31, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy in college. As a student, she was deeply concerned with discrimination and other social issues, and she participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Which statement is more likely? a. Linda is a bank teller b. Linda is a bank teller and a feminist activist. 6

7 Availability Heuristic Which place would you be more scared of getting mugged or even murdered? Judging a situation based on examples of similar situations that initially come to mind. Vivid examples in the news often cause an availability heuristic. The crime rate of Gary, Indiana is MUCH higher than Los Angeles. But when you think of crime, which town comes to mind? Gary, Indiana Los Angeles, CA

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9 Overconfidence Misuse of heuristics, confirmation of beliefs, and the inclination to explain failures increase our overconfidence. Overconfidence is a tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. At a stock market, both the seller and the buyer may be confident about their decisions on a stock. 9

10 Premise 1: some communists are golfers Premise 2: all golfers are Marxists Conclusion: Some communists are Marxists Agree? Premise 1: Americans support free speech Premise 2: Dictators are not Americans Conclusion: Dictators do not support free speech Agree? Premise 1: Robins have feathers Premise 2: Chickens are not robins Conclusion: Chickens do not have feathers Agree? Belief Bias The tendency for one s preexisting beliefs to distort logical reasoning. Sometimes making invalid conclusions valid or vice versa. So, we more easily see the illogic of conclusions that run counter to our beliefs than those that agree with our beliefs.

11 Belief Perseverance Clinging to your initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited. All Cowboy fans who still believe that this is their year are suffering from belief perseverance.

12 Formal Reasoning -Logic Deductive Reasoning Reasoning from the general to the specific Drawing conclusions from a set of observations or premises. If the premises are true, the conclusion must also be true. 12

13 Formal Reasoning -Logic Inductive Reasoning Reasoning from the specific to the general Form conclusions about all members based on a few. Draw conclusions but could be conceivably wrong if the few we chose are not representative of the whole. 13

14 Formal Reasoning - Logic Deductive Reasoning Examples: 1. All oranges are fruits 2. All fruits grow on trees 3. Therefore, all oranges grow on trees Everyday I go to work. This journey from my home to my office takes one hour. My office starts at eight o' clock in the morning. So, if I leave my home at seven o' clock in the morning, I will reach office in time. Inductive Reasoning Example: All the tigers observed in a particular region have yellow black stripes, therefore all the tigers native to this region have yellow stripes My dog has never bitten me, so dogs don t bite.

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16 90% of the population will be saved when they take this medication..or 10% of the population will die when they take this medication. In many North American and European countries people can elect to become organ donors when they get a driver s license. In countries where the default is yes but one can opt out, nearly 100% are organ donors. In countries where the default option is no but one can opt in, the rate is closer to 25%. Framing The way a problem is presented can drastically effect the way we view it.

17 Framing in the consumer world Be aware of what people you don t know - know about you

18 CREATIVITY Almost impossible to define. Little correlation between creativity and intelligence. Convergent Thinking versus Divergent Thinking

19 Divergent thinking, Convergent thinking Divergent thinking is thinking in which multiple solutions are desired. (creativity tests areas in frontal lobe.) Convergent thinking is more conforming but just as good. Sometimes the standard way is the best. (school success, intelligence tests left parietal lobe)

20 Example of Divergent Thinking A man who lived on the 10 th floor of an apartment building took the elevator to the ground floor every summer morning in order to get to work. When coming home in the late afternoon, the man took the elevator to the 5 th floor and walked up the stairs to his apartment on the 10 th floor except on rainy days when the man took the elevator all the way to 10. How do you explain this behavior?

21 Example of Divergent Thinking 1. The man was a little person and could only reach as high as the 5 th floor button. On rainy days, though, he could use his umbrella to hit the 10 th floor button. 2. The man enjoyed the exercise of walking up steps but could only manage 5 floors at a time. On rainy days he would create a muddy mess in the hallway so he took the elevator to 10 then. 3. The stairs from the 5 th to 10 th floor are outside and unprotected. The man took the stairs when convenient to enjoy the late afternoon sun and view overlooking the ocean. On rainy days that was out of the question.