POLICYMAKING IN A PRAETORIAN STATE WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE TELL US, AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR A POST JUNTA MYANMAR?

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1 THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Academic Symposium on Myanmar in Reform 2012 [18 20 June 2012] POLICYMAKING IN A PRAETORIAN STATE WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE TELL US, AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR A POST JUNTA MYANMAR? Dr. Renaud Egreteau Research Assistant Professor Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities & Social Sciences (HKIHSS) The University of Hong Kong

2 OBJECTIVES OF THE PAPER Moving beyond democratization & transition paradigms Focus on the Burmese military institution Less on the rising impact of the Burmese civil society & bottom up democratization processes (not dismissed, but already very well documented since the 2000s) Rediscovering old theories of the Praetorian State to better understand the patterns of governance in post junta Myanmar Who s in charge in the 2010s? Exploring the instruments, networks & objectives of the Tatmadaw in a post SPDC context to understand the way it seeks to influence policymaking, whilst not entirely/directly controlling it Discussing some implications for the Burmese non military sphere and the outside world, and formulate policy responses

3 ON PRAETORIANISM From the political history of Ancient Rome ( Praetor ) Popular Political science scholarship in the 1950s 1970s When soldiers get involved in politics & mingle in civilian affairs A modern praetorian state is a political system in which the armed forces move beyond its traditional security role to become a governing body shaping and influencing state policies, including in non military matters, whilst infiltrating civilian institutions and state structures This as the result of its use (or threat of use) of military might & violence Praetorianism is not militarism A praetorian state is not necessarily a garrison state

4 PRAETORIANS IN MYANMAR Scholarship on praetorianism seldom used to examine postcolonial military politics in Myanmar Badgley 1960, Butwell 1961, Guyot 1970 & 1994 Callahan 2001 & 2004, Steinberg 2001, Selth 2002, Win Min 2010 Allusions to Tatmadaw s praetorian ethos : C. T. Yawnghwe 1997, Tin Maung Maung Than 2001, Maung Aung Myoe 2009, Myint Zan 2008 Different forms of praetorianism in postcolonial Myanmar Early years (1950s) Ne Win caretaker and savior administration ( ) Revolutionary Council ( ) & the praetorian rulers 1974 Constitution & the praetorian guardians SLORC SPDC as absolute praetorian rulers ( )

5 WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE ON THE PRAETORIAN STATE TELL US? (1) Degrees of praetorianism There are degrees/forms of political intervention by armed forces Armed forces can influence policymaking through sophisticated indirect instruments & networks, not necessarily direct ones (junta) Acceptance of pluralism and a greater role for civilians In the case of post SPDC Myanmar (2011 ) Constitutional rights, exceptional prerogatives & immunity for the army Infiltration of the state bureaucracy + executive and legislative powers 25% seats in assemblies Home, Defence & Border Affairs Ministries (national and state level) Establishment of key military controlled governing bodies National Defence & Security Council (art. 201, Constitution 2008) Tatmadaw seems to acknowledge and tolerate a greater role for more competent civilians

6 WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE ON THE PRAETORIAN STATE TELL US? (2) Praetorians & unruly civilians Unruly and divided political landscape provides continuing justification for army intervention into national politics Army as a cohesive, organized & disciplined force, even if incompetent Myanmar: a divided house + an inconvenient tropism: Aung San Suu Kyi How to prepare for a cohesive post Lady Myanmar? Praetorianism & professionalism Professional armies tend to stay away from politics (Hungtinton 1957, Janowitz 1960) The lower the standard of professionalism is among the high ranking military corps, the higher the probability of praetorianism is. Keep soldiers busy, focused on military affairs, professional, and with toys. Problem: who wants a modernized and professional Tatmadaw today?

7 WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE ON THE PRAETORIAN STATE TELL US? (3) Praetorians & the economy Low levels of socio economic development favor the intrusion of the army into the national economy Military Inc.: army backed conglomerates & oligarchy of cronies Praetorians & foreign policy Obsessive national security imperatives propel soldiers into policymaking Myanmar: ethnic conflicts, strategic position (India/China/Indian Ocean) Praetorians & democratization A military/civil transition doesn t mean a complete return to the barracks Armed forces can still intrude into politics despite a vibrant civil society, well educated civilian and bureaucratic elites, a free press, and a powerful and autonomous judicial system See Pakistan, Israel

8 LIMITATIONS & A FUTURE RESEARCH AGENDA Looking at known unknowns of the Burmese armed forces (Selth 2009) On the difficulties to research an opaque military institution A Burmese Kremlin ology & the endless speculations on the Tatmadaw Burmese language material & references Burmese language archival sources seldom examined (Maung Aung Myoe 2009) Avoid externally produced impressions of the Burmese praetorian state Field research & the literature Facts trump theories?

9 Renaud Egreteau (June 18, 2012) HKU, Hong Kong. Thank You.