How Many are We Today? The Demographic Perspective

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1 Brandeis University, October 23-24, 2011 Plenary 4: Numbering the Jews PROVISIONAL, REVISED 0CT 23 NOT YET FOR QUOTATION How Many are We Today? The Demographic Perspective Sergio DellaPergola Professor Emeritus The A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 1

2 MAIN APPROACHES IN THE STUDY OF US JEWISH DEMOGRAPHY Approach Examples Advantages Disadvantages Original data (also) aimed at national Jewish population estimate 1. Jewish sponsored largescale ad-hoc national survey 2. Compilation of local Jewish community surveys 3. Meta-analysis of Jewish subsamples from general national surveys 4. Compilation of current records of Jewish population change: vital statistics, migration data, conversions 5. Jewish sponsored ad-hoc longitudinal panel 6. Jewish enhanced general national survey NJPS, AJIS, HARI. AJYB, NAJDB. SSRI project. HIAS. No other central source in the US. Examples in Europe, Latin America. Not yet attempted. Not yet attempted. Detailed contents. Consistency in inter-group comparisons. Secondary source, relatively low cost of data collection. Secondary source, relatively low cost of data collection. Insights on sociodemographic change over time. Detailed contents. Consistent monitoring of change patterns. Less costly than Jewish ad-hoc national survey. High cost of truly representative sample. Relatively low response rates. No definitional or contents homogeneity. No synchronism. No definitional or contents homogeneity. No synchronism. Fragmented sources. Limited scope of contents. Lack of coverage, esp. marriage and conversion. Gradual phasing out of sample and need to replace. Less detailed than Jewish ad-hoc national survey. Yes. No. No. No. Possibly. Possibly. 2

3 CONFIGURING CONTEMPORARY JEWISH POPULATIONS Jewish ancestry ever Law of Return Enlarged: CORE, not declared CORE, declared, not by religion CORE, declared, by religion Total persons in households with core Jews or raised Jewish For illustrative purposes only: not proportional to actual populations 3

4 PROCESSES AFFECTING JEWISH POPULATION SIZE AND COMPOSITION Explanatory factors Proximate variables, including policy interventions Population related processes Dependent variables Natural increase: World system inequalities Longevity, mortality National context Marriage, fertility Community context Personal characteristics: (Process specific) Migration balance: Immigration, immigrants absorption Population size Gender Socio-economic Emigration Identification balance: Population composition by ethnicity, religion Culturalidentificational Jewish identity, accessions Assimilation, secessions Territorial balance: Boundary changes 4

5 3 US Jewish Women's Fertility Children born, by mother's birth year

6 TOTAL FERTILITY RATES: JEWS IN ISRAEL; JEWS AND TOTAL IN THE U.S TFR Children 2.00 Israel Jews U.S. Jews U.S. Total pop

7 JEWISH INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION BALANCE ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES Israel U.S

8 PEW 2007 SURVEY ADULTS ENTERING AND LEAVING JEWISH GROUP Percent of US total population Childhood religion Entering group Leaving group Current religion

9 6500 MAIN US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION SURVEY ESTIMATES ?? 6000 CPS 5750 NJPS AJIS Thousands ? HARI ARIS-DP SSRI ?

10 SURVEY BASED US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION PROJECTIONS Thousands AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH

11 7000 MAIN US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION ESTIMATES, Thousands AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH

12 7000 MAIN US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION ESTIMATES Thousands AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH

13 READING NJPS Birth Cohort Age 1990 Actual 1990 Age 2001 Projected 2001 Actual Diff % Diff Act- Act- Proj Proj Total 5,515,000 Total 5,367,244 5,035, , , ,146 1, ,299, ,305,271 1,291,741-13, ,687, ,624,543 1,338, , ,528, ,923,333 1,890,055-33, NJPS 2001 originally computed total core Jewish population: 5,035,468 NJPS 2001 estimated total core Jewish population: 5,200,000 NJPS 2001 our revised total core Jewish population estimate: 5,367,244 ± 2.8% error, Jewish population range: 5,217,000 5,517,000 13

14 READING SSRI META-ANALYSIS U.S. social surveys (n = 74): Median percent Jewish adults = 1.94% Ratio of Jewish to total population allowing for lower share of persons under 20: 130/139 = % * = 1.814% 2000 U.S. total population = 281,421,906 Median U.S. Jewish population (by religion) in 2000: 1.814% * 281,421,906 = 5,104,993 Average survey response rate on religion:.95 Jewish population adjusted for non-response/no religion: 5,104,712 /.95 = 5,373,677 14

15 READING PEW SURVEY OF US RELIGION 2007 Percent Jewish by religion out of total weighted sample: 1.669% Children under 18 per 100 adults: Total 35, Jewish 28 Correction factor due to fewer under 18:.948 Percent in mixed households: 31% Assumed Jewish children in mixed households: 35% Correction factor for non-jewish children:.956 Corrected percent Jewish by religion: 1.669% *.948 *.956 = 1.512% Estimated Jewish population by religion in 2007: 1.512% * 301,580,000 = 4,559,890 Average survey response rate on religion:.831 Jewish population adjusted for non-response/no religion: 4,559,890 /.831 = 5,487,232 Sampling error: ±4.5% Jewish population range: 5,240,307-5,734,157 15

16 COMPARISON OF NJPS 2001 REVISED ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS AND PEW 2007 SURVEY 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 ±4.5% Thousands 5,400 5,300 ±2.8% ±2.8% 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 NJPS 2001-DP Pew 2007 NJPS 2010-DP 16

17 US JEWISH AND TOTAL, AND ISRAEL POPULATION ESTIMATES Thousands AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH US Tot/100 Isr J

18 DECENNIAL PERCENT POPULATION GROWTH Years Percent Growth AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ NJPS ARIS-DP 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI US Tot/100 Isr J

19 19 U.S. JEWISH POPULATION BY AGE, ?

20 U.S. JEWISH POPULATION BY AGE, CORRECTED Percent 15.0 Percent Percent 15.0 Percent Percent 15.0 Percent

21 Year HOW MANY ARE WE TODAY? DEMOGRAPHY'S ANSWER, U.S. Core Jewish Population Main source ,680,000 Rosenwaike ,197,000 Rosenwaike, CPS ,420,000 NJPS ,560,000 NJPS Projection ,515,000 NJPS ,367,000 Corrected NJPS, AJIS, SSRI ,425,000 Corr. NJPS Projection, PEW ,343,000 Corrected NJPS Projection 21

22 5750 HOW MANY ARE WE TODAY? DEMOGRAPHY'S ANSWER, Echo effect 5500 Second echo ± Thousands Baby boom ± ± ±

23 U.S. JEWISH POPULATION: ALTERNATIVE DEFINITIONAL CRITERIA, 2011 Criterion Millions Trend Orthodox: Jewish denomination preferred ± 0.7 Growth Active: Volunteer to community work ± 1.5 Decline Community: Jewish organization affiliated ± 3.0 Decline Religion: Declare to be Jewish by religion ± 4.6 Up Down Demography: Core Jewish population ± 5.4 Up Down Ancestry: Have Jewish parents ± 6.8 Growth Enlarged: Total population in Jewish households ± 8.0 Growth Law of Return: Eligible for Israeli citizenship ± 12.0 Growth Ancestry ever: Jewish ancestry at any time in the past?? Growth Source: Author's estimates. 23

24 CONCLUDING REMARKS Definitional and analytic rules in the study of American Jewry need to follow two basic strands: Jews in the United States integrally pertain to American society, and consequently share and respond to changing socioeconomic and cultural stimuli in the country. Jews have often anticipated national trends, occasionally they have been late joiners. American Jews, inasmuch as they are part of world Jewry, belong to a transnational entity sharing and affected by significant commonalities and global processes. These two constraints have determined the past, and will delimit the future range of the possible and of the plausible trends and patterns of American Jewish demography. Yes, we can be one epistemic community. 24

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