2,000 Years of Disasters

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1 2,000 Years of Disasters Roy T. Weston (Nedrix Conference, October 17 th 2006, Newport RI)

2 A Message to Our Sponsors. Top management needs to see business continuity as a strategy, not an expense. Talk profit margins and return on investment, not networks and servers. 2,000 years of disasters - 2

3 What do you do when everything changes? Katrina shows continuity planning and disaster recovery are inadequate to address something of this magnitude. We view disasters as things to recover from, but what do you do when everything changes? 2,000 years of disasters - 3

4 George Santayana. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. 2,000 years of disasters - 4

5 Three stories from history. Pompeii. The Black Death. The Crash of ,000 years of disasters - 5

6 Let s talk about Pompeii. A comparison to Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans. Like Katrina, the tragedy at Pompeii was over and done with in a matter of hours but the disaster took the lives of thousands of people and wiped an entire city off the map. 2,000 years of disasters - 6

7 Life in Pompeii. History is not an abstract concept. The citizens of Pompeii were just like us. Pompeii was a modern city. It was life as usual. 2,000 years of disasters - 7

8 The warning signs. Romans were obsessed with predicting the future. The wrath of the gods. Scientific theory. Population resettlement. 2,000 years of disasters - 8

9 Vesuvius erupts. A fearful black cloud. The account of Pliny the Younger. Herculaneum. Pompeii. 2,000 years of disasters - 9

10 The rescue operation. Pliny the Elder take charge. No escape. "Fortune favors the brave. 2,000 years of disasters - 10

11 A city destroyed. Excavations paint a grim picture. Possessions were also found alongside the remains of the victims. A vibrant story of an ancient Roman society, advanced in many ways, which was here one moment, gone the next. Pompeii has become part of local folklore. 2,000 years of disasters - 11

12 Could the disaster have been predicted? The link between seismic activity and volcanic activity. Increased activity in the magma beneath the Earth's surface. Measuring seismic activity to predict an approaching eruption. The magnitude of an eruption is proportional to the length of the period between eruptions. 2,000 years of disasters - 12

13 The Black Death 2,000 years of disasters - 13

14 Life in Medieval Europe. Life expectancy was about 35 years (not). Death from unnatural causes. 1347, the Black Death. 2,000 years of disasters - 14

15 Origins of the Plague. The Yersinia Pestis bacteria. Westward Ho. The Plague in Messina. 2,000 years of disasters - 15

16 About the Disease. Rats, fleas, and humans. Bubonic Plague is not fatal. Three variants of the plague. The Pneumonic variant - no fleas required. Giving the disease its name was its most characteristic symptom, a swelling, blackish in color, of the lymph nodes. breakfast with your kinfolk and supper with your ancestors. 2,000 years of disasters - 16

17 Death in Siena. A description from Agnolo di Tura, of Siena. 2,000 years of disasters - 17

18 Official Remedies. How did the authorities try to combat it? Most did recognize it for what it was - a medical disaster. The scale of the disaster left them helpless. Don t drink the water. 2,000 years of disasters - 18

19 Unofficial Remedies. Medieval gas masks. The flagellants. The original St Valentine s Day massacre. 2,000 years of disasters - 19

20 Avoidance. The only effective action was quarantine. 2,000 years of disasters - 20

21 Population Loss. 25 million in Europe. 35 million in China. 2,000 years of disasters - 21

22 Economic Disruption. Industry and commerce were hard hit. Villages were abandoned. But the standard of living was increasing like never before. The peasants are revolting. Goodbye feudal system, hello democracy. 2,000 years of disasters - 22

23 The Wall Street Crash. A man-made disaster. Everyone s a winner. A roller coaster ride. Black Tuesday -- October 29. 2,000 years of disasters - 23

24 Could the crash have been avoided? The Roaring Twenties. "Buy Standard Gas. Laissez-faire - let it be. Panic, riots and ticker tape. Buying on margin. 2,000 years of disasters - 24

25 After the crash. The boom years. The banks foreclose. 100,000 American companies declared bankruptcy. 14 million Americans out of work. When America sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. 2,000 years of disasters - 25

26 Could a crash happen today? Regulations and oversight. Black Monday, The nature of economics This time, we actually learned from history. 2,000 years of disasters - 26

27 Good news, bad news. Three different examples of disasters on a large scale. Events tend to escalate beyond the scope of our plans. Sometimes our world is changed forever. But we can work to prevent future calamities. 2,000 years of disasters - 27

28 Cassandra warning. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. Cassandra. Pandemic Preparation? Will our warnings go unheeded? 2,000 years of disasters - 28

29 Cave Canem. The dead of Pompeii invite us into their homes. Merchants of Doom. Remember the humanity. 2,000 years of disasters - 29

30 Thank you and Cave Canem. 2,000 years of disasters - 30

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