Iraq: Politics, Security, and U.S. Policy

Transcription

1 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs May 26, 2015 Congressional Research Service RS21968

2 Summary Iraq s sectarian and ethnic divisions muted toward the end of the U.S. military intervention in Iraq have reemerged to fuel a major challenge to Iraq s stability and to U.S. policy in Iraq and the broader Middle East region. The resentment of Iraq s Sunni Arabs toward the Shiite-dominated central government facilitated the capture of nearly one-third of Iraqi territory by the Sunni Islamist extremist group called the Islamic State (also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL). Iraq s Kurds have been separately embroiled in political and territorial disputes with Baghdad, although those differences have been muted as the Kurds and the central government address the Islamic State threat. As part of an overarching effort to defeat the Islamic State, the United States is helping the Iraqi government as it attempts to recapture territories in Iraq that have fallen under Islamic State control. The United States is conducting airstrikes against the group and has deployed about 3,100 U.S. military personnel to resume advising and training the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the peshmerga militia of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Partner countries are deploying 1,500 advisers and trainers for these purposes as well. The United States is also proceeding with pre-existing foreign military sales of combat aircraft, as well as with new sales of tanks and armored vehicles to replenish the equipment lost during the 2014 ISF partial collapse. U.S. officials have asserted that U.S. military action alone will not restore Iraq s stability, and that doing so requires efforts by the government to win back the loyalty of Iraq s Sunnis and resolve differences with the KRG. This political component of U.S. strategy began to show success in the replacement of former Prime Minister Nuri al-maliki with another Prime Minister, Haydar al- Abbadi. Although both men are from the Shiite Islamist Da wa Party, Abbadi appears more willing than was Maliki to compromise with Sunni interests, as well as with the KRG. In November 2014, facing the common Islamic State threat, Baghdad and the KRG reached a temporary agreement to resolve some of their differences over the KRG s exportation of oil separately from Baghdad. As of late May 2015, U.S. strategy has come into question. The Defense Department asserted in mid-april 2015 that about 30% of the territory in Iraq seized by the Islamic State had been retaken, including the key Sunni-inhabited city of Tikrit. However, on May 18, 2015, the Islamic State captured all of Ramadi, the capital of overwhelmingly Sunni Al Anbar Province suggesting that U.S. and Iraqi efforts have not crippled the Islamic State s fighting ability or caused a dramatic Sunni shift back to the government side. The setbacks have caused the United States to drop its objections to cooperating with all Shiite militia forces and offering to support those that are commanded by Iraq and not advised or trained by Iran. The Shiite militias provide crucial armed capability but they have also committed human rights abuses against some Sunni communities and thereby hinder government efforts to win back Sunni loyalties. Please see also CRS Report R43612, The Islamic State Crisis and U.S. Policy, by Christopher M. Blanchard et al. Congressional Research Service

3 Contents Brief Historical Overview... 1 The U.S. Intervention and Post-Saddam Transition... 1 Initial Transition and Construction of the Political System... 2 Permanent Constitution... 3 December 15, 2005, Elections Put Maliki at the Helm : Sectarian Conflict and U.S. Surge... 5 Governance Strengthens And Sectarian Conflict Abates... 5 Second Provincial Elections in The March 7, 2010 National Elections... 7 U.S. Involvement Winds Down: The Post-2011 Diplomatic and Economic Relationship... 9 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and U.S. Support Office of Security Cooperation-Iraq (OSC-I) Major Arms Sales Other Post-2011 Security Assistance and Training Programs Post-2011 Regional Reinforcement Capability Political and Security Threats Remaining at the Time of the U.S. Withdrawal Armed Sunni Groups Al Qaeda in Iraq/Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)/Islamic State Naqshabandi Order (JRTN) and Ex-Saddam Military Commanders Sunni Tribal Leaders/Sons of Iraq Fighters The Sadr Faction and Shiite Militias Shiite Militia/Popular Mobilization Forces The Kurds and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) KRG Structure/Intra-Kurdish Divisions KRG-Baghdad Disputes KRG Oil Exports Tier Three Designations of the KDP and PUK Post-U.S. Withdrawal Political Unraveling Insurrection Escalates in Islamic State Challenge to Iraq s Stability Government Formation Process Amidst Security Collapse U.S. Policy Response to the Islamic State in Iraq U.S. Military Involvement Since Mid Advice and Training Air Strikes Weapons Resupply Funding Issues Results of the Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Way Forward Economic Resources and Human Rights Issues Economic Development and the Energy Sector General Human Rights Issues Trafficking in Persons Media and Free Expression Congressional Research Service

4 Corruption Religious Freedom/Situation of Religious Minorities Women s Rights Mass Graves Regional Relationships Iran Syria Turkey Gulf States Tables Table 1. Major Political Factions in Post-Saddam Iraq... 3 Table 2. Major Coalitions in April 30, 2014, COR Elections Table 3. U.S. Assistance to Iraq Since FY Table 4. Recent Democracy Assistance to Iraq: FY Contacts Author Contact Information Congressional Research Service

5 Brief Historical Overview The territory that is now Iraq fell under the rule of the Ottoman Empire in the 16 th Century, divided into three provinces: Mosul Province, Baghdad Province, and Basra Province. Ottoman rule lasted until World War I, in which that empire was defeated and its dominions in the Middle East were taken over by the European powers that had defeated the Ottomans in the war. Britain took over Iraq (then still called Mesopotamia ) under a League of Nations mandate, but ruled by Faysal I, a leader of the Hashemite family (which still rules modern-day Jordan). Iraq gained independence in 1932, with Faysal as King. Arab nationalist military leaders led by Abd al-qarim Qasim overthrew the monarchy (King Faysal II) in July 1958, proclaiming a republic. Qasim invited Kurdish leader Mullah Mustafa Barzani to return to Iraq but, beginning in 1961, he led Kurdish forces in a significant war for autonomy from Baghdad, with the ultimate objective of forming a separate Kurdish state. The Ba th ( Renaissance ) Party organized against Qasim and took power briefly in a 1963 coup, but the first Ba thist government was ousted in late 1963 by nationalist military leaders, who ruled until a successful second Ba th takeover in In July 1979, Saddam Hussein ousted then President Ahmad Hasan Al Bakr and became President of Iraq. Saddam Hussein came to power in Iraq about six months after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini s Islamic revolution ousted the U.S.-backed Shah in neighboring Iran. Saddam apparently perceived Iran s revolution as an existential threat for its potential to inspire a Shiite-led revolution in Iraq, which is about 60% Shiite Arab, 20% Sunni Arab, and 18% Kurdish. In September 1980, Saddam launched war against Iran, but the war bogged down into a rough stalemate until the summer of 1988, when Iran accepted a ceasefire encapsulated in U.N. Security Council Resolution 598, adopted a year prior. Perhaps seeking a broader hegemony in the Gulf, in August 1990, Saddam ordered an invasion and occupation of Kuwait, which along with the other Persian Gulf monarchies had underwritten Iraq s war effort against Iran. A U.S.-led coalition expelled Iraqi forces by the end of March 1991, and Iraq accepted an intrusive U.N.-led inspection regime to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, including a nuclear program that apparently was close to producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. By the end of the 1990s, the inspection regime broke down over Iraqi objections to its intrusiveness and stated frustrations about a worldwide economic embargo imposed on Iraq after the Kuwait invasion. However, Iraq s WMD program, it was later determined, had not been revived to any meaningful extent. The U.S. Intervention and Post-Saddam Transition A U.S.-led military coalition that included about 250,000 U.S. troops crossed the border from Kuwait into Iraq on March 19, 2003, to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein and eliminate suspected WMD programs that were retained. After several weeks of combat, the regime of Saddam Hussein fell on April 9, During the presence of U.S. forces, Iraq completed a transition from the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein to a plural political system in which varying sects and ideological and political factions compete in elections. A series of elections began in 2005, after a one-year occupation period and a subsequent seven-month interim period of Iraqi self-governance that gave each community a share of power and prestige to promote cooperation and unity. Still, disputes over the relative claim of each community on power and economic resources permeated almost every issue in Iraq and were never fully resolved. These unresolved differences muted during the last years of the U.S. military presence reemerged in mid-2012 and have since returned Iraq to major conflict. Congressional Research Service 1

6 After the fall of Saddam Hussein, all U.S. economic sanctions against Iraq were lifted, removing impediments to U.S. business dealings with Iraq. During , Iraq was removed from the terrorism list, and the Iraq Sanctions Act (Sections J of P.L ), which codified a U.S. trade embargo imposed after Iraq s invasion of Kuwait, was terminated. In subsequent years, a series of U.N. Security Council resolutions removed most remaining Chapter VII U.N. sanctions against Iraq that stemmed from the 1990 invasion of Kuwait opening Iraq to receiving arms from any country. Iraq still is required to comply with international proliferation regimes that bar it from reconstituting Saddam-era weapons of mass destruction programs, and still pays into a U.N.-run fund to compensate victims of the 1990 Kuwait invasion. On October 24, 2012, Iraq demonstrated its commitment to compliance with remaining proliferation restrictions by signing the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Initial Transition and Construction of the Political System After the fall of Saddam s regime, the United States set up an occupation structure based on concerns that immediate sovereignty would favor established Islamist and pro-iranian factions over nascent pro-western secular parties. In May 2003, President Bush named Ambassador L. Paul Bremer to head a Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), which was recognized by the United Nations as an occupation authority. In July 2003, Bremer ended Iraqi transition negotiations and appointed a non-sovereign Iraqi advisory body, the 25-member Iraq Governing Council (IGC). U.S. and Iraqi negotiators, advised by a wide range of international officials and experts, drafted a Transitional Administrative Law (TAL, interim constitution), which became effective on March 4, On June 28, 2004, Bremer appointed an Iraqi interim government, ending the occupation period. The TAL also laid out a 2005 elections roadmap, based on agreement among all Iraqi factions that elections should determine future political outcomes. The interim government was headed by a prime minister (Iyad al-allawi) and a president (Sunni tribalist Ghazi al-yawar). It was heavily populated by parties and factions that had long campaigned to oust Saddam. In accordance with the dates specified in the TAL, the first elections process, on January 30, 2005, produced a 275-seat transitional parliament and government that supervised writing a new constitution, held a public referendum on a new constitution, and then held elections for a fullterm government. Elections for four-year-term provincial councils in all 18 provinces ( provincial elections ) and a Kurdistan regional assembly (111 seats) were held concurrently. The election was conducted according to the proportional representation/closed list election system, in which voters chose among political entities (a party, a coalition of parties, or people). The ballot included 111 entities, 9 of which were multi-party coalitions. Sunni Arabs (20% of the overall population) boycotted and won only 17 seats in the transitional parliament. The government included PUK leader Jalal Talabani as president and Da wa party leader Ibrahim al- Jafari as prime minister. Sunni Arabs held the posts of parliament speaker, deputy president, one of the deputy prime ministers, and six ministers, including defense. 1 Text, in English, is at Congressional Research Service 2

7 Table 1. Major Political Factions in Post-Saddam Iraq Faction Da wa Party/State of Law Coalition Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) Sadrists Kurdish Factions: Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and Gorran Iraqi National Alliance/ Iraqiyya Iraqi Islamic Party Leadership/Description The largest faction of the Da wa Party has been led since 2006 by Nuri al-maliki, who displaced former Da wa leader (and former Prime Minister) Ibrahim al-jaafari. Da wa was active against Saddam but also had operatives in some Persian Gulf states, including Kuwait, where they committed attacks against the ruling family during the 1980s. Da wa is the core of the State of Law political coalition. Iraq s current Prime Minister, Haydar al-abbadi, is a Da wa member. Current leader is Ammar al-hakim, who succeeded his father Abd al-aziz al-hakim upon his death in The Hakims descend from the revered late Grand Ayatollah Muhsin Al Hakim, who hosted Iran s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini when he was in exile in Iraq during Abd al-aziz s elder brother, Mohammad Baqr al-hakim, headed the movement when it was an underground armed opposition group against Saddam, but he was killed outside a Najaf mosque shortly after returning to Iraq following Saddam s overthrow. Thirty-two year old Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr leads a sizeable Shiite political faction. Sadr is the son of revered Ayatollah Mohammad Sadiq Al Sadr, who was killed by Saddam s security forces in 1999, and a relative of Mohammad Baqr Al Sadr, a Shiite theoretician and contemporary and colleague of Ayatollah Khomeini. Moqtada formed a Shiite militia called the Mahdi Army during the U.S. military presence, which was formally disbanded in 2009 but has regrouped under an alternate name to combat the Islamic State organization. The Sadrists have competed in all Iraqi elections since In 2014, the group competed under the Al Ahrar (Liberal) banner. Masoud Barzani heads the KDP and is the elected President of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The PUK is led by Jalal Talabani, who was President of Iraq until the 2014 government section process. Iraq s current president, Fouad Masoum, is a senior PUK leader as well. Gorran ( Change ) is an offshoot of the PUK. Led by Iyad al-allawi, a longtime anti-saddam activist who was transitional Prime Minister during June 2004-February Allawi is a Shiite Muslim but most of his bloc s supporters are Sunnis, of which many are ex-baath Party members. Iraqiyya bloc fractured after the 2010 national election into blocs loyal to Allawi and to various Sunni leaders including ex-cor peaker Osama al-nujaifi and deputy Prime Minister Saleh al- Mutlaq. Allawi and Nujaifi are both vice presidents in the government formed in September 2014, and Mutlaq has retained his deputy prime ministerial post. Sunni faction loyal to ousted Vice President Tariq al-hashimi. Hashimi was part of the Iraqiyya alliance in the 2010 election. He fled a Maliki-ordered arrest warrant in late 2011 and has remained mostly in Turkey since. Sources: Various press reports and author conversations with Iraq experts. Permanent Constitution 2 A 55-member drafting committee in which Sunnis were underrepresented produced a draft constitution, which was adopted in a public referendum of October 15, It major provisions are as follows: The constitution did not stipulate any ethnic or sectarian-based distribution of positions. An informal agreement developed in the process of forming successive 2 Text of the Iraqi constitution is at AR html. Congressional Research Service 3

8 governments in which a Shiite Muslim is Prime Minister, a Kurd is President, and a Sunni is Speaker of the Council of Representatives (COR, parliament). The three Kurdish-controlled provinces of Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniyah to constitute a legal region administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which has its own elected president and parliament (Article 113). Legal regions are able to organize internal security forces, legitimizing the Kurds fielding of their peshmerga militia (Article 117). This continued a TAL provision. There would be a December 31, 2007, deadline to hold a referendum on whether Kirkuk (Tamim Province) would join the Kurdish region (Article 140). Any two or more provinces may join together to form a new region, according to an October 2006 law on formation of regions. Holding a referendum on region formation requires obtaining signatures of 10% of the provinces voters, or the support of one-third of the members of their provincial councils. Islam was designated as a main source of legislation. A Federation Council (Article 62), a second chamber with size and powers would be determined in future law (not adopted to date). A 25% electoral goal was set for women (Article 47). Families would choose which courts to use for family issues (Article 41), and only primary education is mandatory (Article 34). Islamic law experts and civil law judges would serve on the federal supreme court (Article 89). The central government would distribute oil and gas revenues from current fields in proportion to population, and regions will have a role in allocating revenues from new energy discoveries (Article 109). These provisions left many disputes unresolved, particularly the balance between central government and regional and local authority. The TAL made approval of the constitution subject to a veto if a two-thirds majority of voters in any three provinces voted it down. Sunnis registered in large numbers (70%-85%) to try to defeat the constitution, despite a U.S.-mediated agreement of October 11, 2005, to have a future vote on amendments to the constitution. The Sunni provinces of Anbar and Salahuddin had a 97% and 82% no vote, respectively, but the constitution was adopted because Nineveh Province voted 55% no short of the two-thirds no majority needed to vote the constitution down. December 15, 2005, Elections Put Maliki at the Helm The December 15, 2005, elections were for a full-term (four-year) national government (also in line with the schedule laid out in the TAL). Each province contributed a set number of seats to a Council of Representatives (COR), a formula adopted to attract Sunni participation. There were 361 political entities, including 19 multi-party coalitions, competing in a closed list voting system (in which votes are cast only for parties and coalitions, not individual candidates). The Shiites and Kurds again emerged dominant. The COR was inaugurated on March 16, 2006, and Jafari was replaced with a then-obscure Da wa figure, Nuri Kamal al-maliki, as Prime Minister. Talabani was selected to continue as president, with deputies Adel Abd al-mahdi (incumbent) of ISCI and Tariq al-hashimi, leader of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP). Of the 37 Cabinet posts, there were 19 Shiites; 9 Sunnis; 8 Kurds; and 1 Christian. Four were women. Congressional Research Service 4

9 : Sectarian Conflict and U.S. Surge The election did not resolve the Sunnis grievances over their diminished positions in the power structure, and subsequent events reinforced their political weakness and sense of resentment. The bombing of a major Shiite shrine (Al Askari Mosque) in the Sunni-dominated city of Samarra (Salahuddin Province) in February 2006 set off major Sunni-Shiite violence that became so serious that many experts, by the end of 2006, were considering the U.S. mission as failing. The Iraq Study Group concluded that U.S. policy required major change. 3 In August 2006, the United States and Iraq agreed on benchmarks that, if implemented, might achieve political reconciliation. Under Section 1314 of a FY2007 supplemental appropriation (P.L ), progress on 18 political and security benchmarks as assessed in Administration reports due by July 15, 2007, and September 15, 2007 was required for the United States to provide $1.5 billion in Economic Support Funds (ESF) to Iraq. 4 In early 2007, the United States began a surge of about 30,000 additional U.S. forces bringing U.S. troop levels from their levels of 138,000 to a high of about 170,000 intended to blunt insurgent momentum and take advantage of growing Sunni Arab rejection of Islamist extremist groups. The Administration cited as partial justification for the surge the Iraq Study Group s recommendation of such a step. As 2008 progressed, citing the achievement of many of the agreed benchmarks and a dramatic drop in sectarian violence, the Bush Administration asserted that political reconciliation was advancing. However, U.S. officials maintained that the extent and durability of the reconciliation would depend on further compromises among ethnic groups. United Nations Assistance Mission Iraq (UNAMI) The United Nations contributes to political reconciliation through its U.N. Assistance Mission Iraq (UNAMI). The head of UNAMI is also the Special Representative of the Secretary General for Iraq. The mandate of UNAMI was established in 2003 and has been renewed each July since in a U.N. Security Council resolution. UNAMI s primary activities have been to help build civil society, assist vulnerable populations, consult on possible solutions to the Arab- Kurd dispute over Kirkuk Province, and resolve the status of the Iranian opposition group People s Mojahedin Organization of Iran that remains in Iraq (see below). The first head of the office was killed in a car bombing on his headquarters in August In February 2015, Jan Kubis, the former head of UNAMA in Afghanistan, replaced Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov as head of UNAMI. Governance Strengthens And Sectarian Conflict Abates The passage of Iraqi laws in 2008 that were considered crucial to reconciliation, continued reductions in violence accomplished by the U.S. surge, and the Sunni militant turn away from violence, facilitated political stabilization. A March 2008 offensive ordered by Maliki against the Sadr faction and other militants in Basra and environs (Operation Charge of the Knights) pacified the city and caused many Sunnis and Kurds to see Maliki as willing to take on armed groups even 3 The Iraq Study Group Report. Vintage Books, The Iraq Study Group was funded by the conference report on P.L , FY2006 supplemental, which provided $1 million to the U.S. Institute of Peace for operations of an Iraq Study Group. The legislation did not specify the Group s exact mandate or its composition. 4 President Bush exercised the waiver provision of that law in order to provide that aid. The law also mandated an assessment by the Government Accountability Office, by September 1, 2007, of Iraqi performance on the benchmarks, as well as an outside assessment of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Congressional Research Service 5

10 if they were Shiite. This contributed to a decision in July 2008 by several Sunni ministers to end a one-year boycott of the Cabinet. U.S. officials also pressed Maliki to devolve power from Baghdad, in large part to give Iraq s Sunnis more ownership of their own affairs and regions. Such devolution could take the form of establishment of new regions, modeled along the lines of the KRG, or allowing provinces or groups of provinces more autonomy and powers. Opponents of that proposal asserted that devolving power from the central government would lead to the breakup of Iraq. In part to address U.S. advice, in 2008, a provincial powers law (Law Number 21) was adopted to decentralize governance by delineating substantial powers for provincial governing councils, such as enacting provincial legislation, regulations, and procedures, and choosing the province s governor and two deputy governors. The provincial administrations, which serve four-year terms, draft provincial budgets and implement federal policies. Some central government funds are given as grants directly to provincial administrations for their use. Provinces have a greater claim on Iraqi financial resources than do districts, and many communities support converting their areas into provinces. The 2008 law replaced a 1969 Provinces Law (Number 159). Law 21 has been amended on several occasions to try to accommodate restive areas of Iraq. A June 2013 amendment gave provincial governments substantially more power, a move intended to satisfy Sunnis. In December 2013, the central government announced it would convert the district of Halabja into a separate province Halabja is symbolic to the Kurds because of Saddam s use of chemical weapons there in In January 2014, the government announced other districts that would undergo similar conversions: Fallujah (in Anbar Province), a hotbed of Sunni restiveness; Tuz Khurmato (in Salahuddin Province) and Tal Affar (in Nineveh Province), both of which have Turkmen majorities; and the Nineveh Plains (also in Nineveh), which has a mostly Assyrian Christian population. These announcements came amid a major Sunni uprising in Anbar Province, discussed below, and appeared intended to keep minorities and Sunnis on the side of the government. These Cabinet decisions have not been implemented to date. Second Provincial Elections in 2009 The second set of provincial elections were planned for October 1, 2008, but were postponed when Kurdish opposition caused a presidential veto of a July 2008 draft election law that would have diluted Kurdish dominance of the Kirkuk provincial government. On September 24, 2008, the COR adopted an election law, providing for the provincial elections by January 31, 2009, but postponing provincial elections in Kirkuk and the three KRG provinces. About 14,500 candidates (including 4,000 women) vied for the 440 provincial council seats in the 14 Arab-dominated provinces of Iraq. About 17 million Iraqis (any Iraqi 18 years of age or older) were eligible for the vote, which was run by the Iraqi Higher Election Commission (IHEC). Pre-election violence was minimal but turnout was lower than expected at about 51%. The certified vote totals (March 29, 2009) gave Maliki s State of Law Coalition a very strong 126 out of the 440 seats available (28%). Its main Shiite rival, ISCI, went from 200 council seats to only 50, a result observers attributed to its perceived close ties to Iran. Iyad al-allawi s faction won 26 seats, a gain of 8 seats, and a Sunni faction loyal to Tariq al-hashimi won 32 seats, a loss of 15. Sunni tribal leaders who boycotted the 2005 elections participated in the 2009 elections. Their slate came in first in Anbar Province. Although Maliki s State of Law coalition fared well, his party still needed to strike bargains with rival factions to form provincial administrations. Congressional Research Service 6

11 The March 7, 2010 National Elections With the strong showing of his slate in the provincial elections, Maliki was favored to retain his position in the March 7, 2010 COR elections and retain his post. Yet, as 2009 progressed, Maliki s image as protector of law and order was tarnished by several high-profile attacks, including major bombings in Baghdad on August 20, 2009, in which the buildings housing the Ministry of Finance and of Foreign Affairs were heavily damaged. As Maliki s image faded, Shiite unity broke down and a strong rival Shiite slate took shape the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) consisting of ISCI, the Sadrists, and other Shiite figures. Sunni Arabs rallied around the nominally cross-sectarian Iraq National Movement (Iraqiyya) of former transitional Prime Minister Iyad al-allawi. The election law passed by the COR in November 2009 expanded the size of the COR to 325 total seats. Of these, 310 were allocated by province, with the constituency sizes ranging from Baghdad s 68 seats to Muthanna s seven. The remaining 15 seats were minority reserved seats and compensatory seats seats allocated from leftover votes for parties and slates that did not meet a minimum threshold to win a seat. Still, the goal of bringing Sunni Arabs further into the political structure was jeopardized when the Justice and Accountability Commission (JAC, the successor to the De-Baathification Commission that worked since the fall of Saddam to purge former Baathists from government) invalidated the candidacies of 499 individuals (out of 6,500 candidates running) on various slates. Appeals reinstated many of them. Maliki later named the Minister for Human Rights to also serve as JAC chairman. The JAC continues to vet candidates. The final candidate list contained about 6,170 total candidates spanning 85 coalitions. Total turnout was about 62%, and certified results were announced on June 1, 2010, showing Iraqiyya winning two seats more than did Maliki s State of Law slate. The Iraqi constitution (Article 73) mandates that the COR bloc with the largest number of members should be afforded the first opportunity to form a government. However, on March 28, 2010, Iraq s Supreme Court ruled that a coalition that forms after the election could be deemed to meet that requirement. On October 1, 2010, a six-month deadlock among major blocs over major positions broke when Maliki received the backing of most of the 40 COR Sadrist deputies. The Obama Administration initially appeared to favor Allawi s efforts to form a governing coalition but, as that effort failed, the Administration acquiesced to a second Maliki term. On November 10, 2010, an Irbil Agreement was reached in which (1) Maliki and Talabani would serve another term; (2) Iraqiyya would be extensively represented in government one of its figures would become COR Speaker, another would be defense minister, and another (presumably Allawi himself) would chair an oversight body called the National Council for Strategic Policies ; 5 and (3) de-baathification laws would be eased. At the November 11, 2010, COR session to implement the agreement, Iraqiyya figure Usama al-nujaifi (brother of Nineveh Governor Atheel Nujaifi) was elected COR speaker. Several days later, Talabani was reelected president and subsequently tapped Maliki as prime minister-designate. Maliki met the December 25, 2010 to achieve COR confirmation of a Cabinet, which divided the positions among the major factions, but Maliki formally held the positions of Defense Minister, Interior Minister, and 5 Fadel, Leila and Karen DeYoung. Iraqi Leaders Crack Political Deadlock. Washington Post, November 11, Congressional Research Service 7

12 Minister of State for National Security. Other officials headed these ministries on an acting basis, without the full authority they would normally have as COR-approved ministers. U.S. Involvement Winds Down: As the second full term government took shape in Iraq, the United States began implementing its long-planned military withdrawal from Iraq. A full U.S. withdrawal by the end of 2011 was a stipulation of the November 2008 U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement (SA), which took effect on January 1, On February 27, 2009, President Obama announced that U.S. troop levels in Iraq would decline to 50,000 by September 2010 (from 138,000 in early 2009) and the U.S. mission would shift from combat to training the ISF. By the formal end of the U.S. combat mission on August 31, 2010, the size of the U.S. force was 47,000 and it declined steadily thereafter until the last U.S. troop contingent crossed into Kuwait on December 18, With the final withdrawal deadline approaching, fears of expanded Iranian influence and perceived remaining deficiencies in the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) caused U.S. officials to seek to revise the SA to keep some U.S. troops in Iraq after Some U.S. experts feared the rifts among major ethnic and sectarian communities were still wide enough that Iraq could still become a failed state unless some U.S. troops remained. U.S. officials emphasized that the ISF remained unable to defend Iraq s airspace and borders, and Iraqi commanders indicated that the ISF would be unable to execute full external defense until Renegotiating the SA to allow for a continued U.S. troop presence required discussions with the Iraqi government and a ratification vote of the Iraqi COR; Iraq s constitution requires a COR vote on formal bilateral agreements with foreign countries. Several high-level U.S. visits and statements urged the Iraqis to consider extending the U.S. troop presence. Maliki told Speaker of the House John Boehner during his April 16, 2011, visit to Baghdad that Iraq would welcome U.S. training and arms after that time. 7 Subsequently, Maliki stated that a continued U.S. troops presence would require a consensus among political blocs (which he later defined as at least 70% concurrence) 8 an apparent effort to isolate the Sadr faction, the most vocal opponent of a continuing U.S. presence. On August 3, 2011, most major factions gave Maliki their backing to negotiate an SA extension, but Sadr threatened to activate his Mahdi Army militia to oppose any extension of the U.S. presence. As U.S.-Iraq negotiations on a post-2011 U.S. presence got underway, scenarios and proposals ranging from 3, 000 to 15,000 remaining U.S. troops were widely discussed. 9 With Sadrist opposition unyielding, on October 5, 2011, Iraq stated that it would not extend the legal protections contained in the existing SA. That stipulation failed to meet the Defense Department requirements that U.S. soldiers not be subject to prosecution under Iraq s constitution and its laws. On October 21, 2011, President Obama announced that the United States and Iraq had agreed that, in accordance with the November 2008 Security Agreement (SA), all U.S. troops would leave Iraq at the end of Whether the Obama Administration made substantial efforts 6 Iraq General Says Forces Not Ready Until Agence France Presse, October 30, Prashant Rao. Maliki Tells US Boehner Iraqi Troops Are Ready. Agence France Presse, April 16, Aaron Davis. Maliki Seeking Consensus on Troops. Washington Post, May 12, Author conversations with Iraq experts in Washington, DC, 2011; Eric Schmitt and Steven Lee Myers. Plan Would Keep Military in Iraq Beyond Deadline. September 7, Congressional Research Service 8

13 to overcome the Iraqi resistance remains an issue of debate. In his 2011 Iraq withdrawal announcement, President Obama stated that, through U.S. assistance programs, the United States would be able to continue to develop all facets of the bilateral relationship with Iraq and help strengthen its institutions. 10 He and other U.S. officials asserted that the United States would continue to help Iraq secure itself, but using programs commonly provided for other countries. Administration officials stressed that the U.S. political and residual security-related presence would be sufficient to ensure that Iraq remained stable, allied to the United States, continuing to move toward full democracy, and economically growing. The Post-2011 Diplomatic and Economic Relationship The cornerstone of the bilateral relationship was to be the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA), which entered into effect at the same time as the SA. The SFA outlined long-term U.S.-Iraqi relations with the intent of orienting Iraq s politics and its economy toward the West and the developed nations, and reducing its reliance on Iran or other regional states. The SFA set up a Higher Coordination Committee (HCC) as an institutional framework for high-level U.S.-Iraq meetings, and subordinate Joint Coordinating Committees. The SFA provides for the following (among other provisions): U.S.-Iraq cooperation based on mutual respect, and that the United States will not use Iraqi facilities to launch any attacks against third countries, and will not seek permanent bases. U.S. support for Iraqi democracy and support for Iraq in regional and international organizations. U.S.-Iraqi dialogue to increase Iraq s economic development, including through the Dialogue on Economic Cooperation and a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). The United States and Iraq announced on March 6, 2013, that a bilateral TIFA had been finalized. Promotion of Iraq s development of its electricity, oil, and gas sector. U.S.-Iraq dialogue on agricultural issues and promotion of Iraqi participation in agricultural programs run by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and USAID. Cultural cooperation through several exchange programs, such as the Youth Exchange and Study Program and the International Visitor Leadership Program. The joint statement following Maliki s meeting with President Obama said that nearly 1,000 Iraqi students were studying in the United States and that the two sides had a shared commitment to increase that number and to increase cultural, artistic, and scientific exchanges. State Department-run aid programs are intended to fulfill the objectives of the SFA, according to State Department budget documents. These programs are implemented mainly through Economic Support Funds. State Department budget justification documents in recent fiscal years have indicated that most U.S. economic aid to Iraq now goes to programs to promote democracy, adherence to international standards of human rights, rule of law, and conflict resolution. 10 Remarks by the President on Ending the War in Iraq. October 21, Congressional Research Service 9

14 Programs funded by the State Department Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) focus on rule of law, moving away from previous use of INL funds for police training. Funding continues for counterterrorism operations (NADR funds), and for anticorruption initiatives. U.S. officials stress that, for programs run by USAID in Iraq, Iraq matches one-for-one the U.S. funding contribution. The State Department became the lead U.S. agency in Iraq as of October 1, 2011, and closed its Office of the Iraq Transition Coordinator in March In July 2011, as part of the transition to State leadership in Iraq, the United States formally opened consulates in Basra, Irbil, and Kirkuk. An embassy branch office was considered for Mosul but cost and security issues kept the U.S. facility there limited to a diplomatic office. The Kirkuk consulate closed at the end of July 2012 in part to save costs. The State Department has planned to replace the U.S. consulate in Irbil with a New Consulate Compound in Irbil, and the FY2014 Consolidated Appropriation, P.L , provided $250 million for that purpose. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, built at a cost of about $750 million, controlled over 16,000 personnel at the time of the 2011 U.S. withdrawal about half of which were contractors and fell to about 5,500 at the end of The current U.S. Ambassador in Iraq is Stuart Jones, who was sworn in on September 17, Of the contractors, most were on missions to protect the U.S. Embassy and consulates, and other U.S. personnel and facilities throughout Iraq. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and U.S. Support At the time of the U.S. withdrawal, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) was assessed as a relatively well-trained and disciplined force of about 800,000, of which about 350,000 were Iraqi Army and associated military forces and the remainder were mostly Iraqi Police Service personnel. Of the miltary forces, a mostly-shiite Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), of which about 4,100 are Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF), were considered highly capable but reported directly to Maliki s Office of the Commander-in-Chief. The ISF ground forces were also relatively well armed, utilizing heavy armor supplied by the United States. However, the Air Force remained limited at the time of the withdrawal, utilizing mostly propeller-driven aircraft. The U.S. funding expended to establish, train, and equip the ISF is portrayed in the tables below. The following sections discuss aspects of the U.S.-Iraq security relationship in place at the time of the U.S. withdrawal in 2011 programs that apparently did not prevent a sharp deterioration in in quality of the ISF. Competent commanders were in some cases replaced by Maliki loyalists, and corruption was considered rife by all accounts. Many commanders viewed their positions as financial and political rewards rather than tasks and responsibilities to be managed. In addition, during his April 2014 visit to the United States, Prime Minister Abbadi did not dispute assertions that the Iraqi military is about 80% Shiite Muslim a possible explanation of why Iraqi Sunnis in some areas express resentment of the ISF as an occupation force or an Iranian force. As discussed below, the force collapsed in northern Iraq in the face of the Islamic State offensive in 2014, and some observers say the Iraqi Army might have been reduced to as few as 50,000 personnel as a result of the disintegration. 11 Ernesto Londono. U.S. Clout Wanes in Iraq. Washington Post, March 24, Congressional Research Service 10

15 Office of Security Cooperation-Iraq (OSC-I) The Office of Security Cooperation Iraq (OSC-I), operating under the authority of the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, was to be the primary Iraq-based U.S. entity tasked with interacting with the post-2011 Iraqi military. Its primary mission is to administer the foreign military sales (FMS) programs (U.S. arms sales to Iraq). It is funded with foreign military financing (FMF) funds, discussed in the aid table below. Prior to the 2014 ISIL-led challenge, it worked out of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and five other locations around Iraq (Kirkuk Regional Airport Base, Tikrit, Besmaya, Umm Qasr, and Taji). It left the facility in Tikrit before the Islamic State captured that city in June 2014, and has not returned to it despite Tikrit s recapture in April Total OCS-I personnel number over 3,500, most of which are security contractors. Of the staff, about 175 are U.S. military personnel and an additional 45 are Defense Department civilians. Some of these personnel have been seconded to the anti-islamic State missions discussed below, but some remain as OSC-I personnel performing the functions they have since About 46 members of the staff administer the FMS program and other security assistance programs such as the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program. Major Arms Sales The United States continued to supply Iraq with substantial quantities of arms after the 2011 withdrawal. In August 2012, the United States completed delivery to Iraq of 140 M1A1 Abrams tanks. The tanks cost about $860 million, of which $800 million was paid out of Iraq s national funds. In December 2012, the U.S. Navy delivered two support ships to Iraq, which assist Iraq s fast-attack and patrol boats that secure its offshore oil platforms and other coastal and offshore locations. The United States also has sold Iraq equipment that its security forces can use to restrict the ability of insurgent and terrorist groups to move contraband across Iraq s borders and checkpoints (RAPISCAN system vehicles), at a cost of about $600 million. Some refurbished air defense guns were provided gratis as excess defense articles (EDA). F-16s The largest FMS case is the sale of 36 U.S.-made F-16 combat aircraft to Iraq, notified to Congress in two equal tranches, the latest of which was made on December 12, 2011 (Transmittal No ). The total value of the sale of 36 F-16s is up to $6.5 billion when all parts, training, and weaponry are included. As noted above, deliveries of the aircraft began in July 2014, although the planes are being delivered to Iraqi control at a U.S. air base in Arizona prior to securing from the Islamic State the area around their permanent home at Balad Air Base, north of Baghdad. The aircraft and their trained pilots are expected to deploy to Iraq later in Apache Attack Helicopters, Air Defense Equipment, and Stingers In 2013 Iraq requested to purchase from the United States the Integrated Air Defense System and Apache attack helicopters. 12 The sale of the Air Defense system was notified to Congress on August 5, 2013, with a value of $2.4 billion, including 681 Stinger shoulder held units, three Hawk anti-aircraft batteries, and other equipment. DSCA simultaneously notified about $ John Hudson. Iraqi Ambassador: Give Us Bigger Guns, And Then We ll Help on Syria. July 17, Congressional Research Service 11

16 billion worth of additional sales to Iraq including of Stryker nuclear, chemical, and biological equipment reconnaissance vehicles, 12 Bell helicopters, the Mobile Troposcatter Radio System, and maintenance support. The provision of Apaches involves leasing of six of the helicopters, with an estimated cost of about $1.37 billion, and the sale of 24 more, with an estimated value of $4.8 billion. The 6 to be leased were to arrive in July 2014 and the 24 to be sold would be delivered by As noted below, the provision of the Apaches was held up by some in Congress until the December 2013 Islamic State-led offensive in Anbar Province. Other Suppliers. The United States is not the only arms supplier to Iraq. In October 2012, Iraq and Russia signed deals for Russian arms worth about $4.2 billion. In November 2013, Russia delivered four Mi-35 attack helicopters to Iraq. As noted above, Russia quickly delivered several combat aircraft in late June 2014 that Iraq sought to fill a gap in its air attack capabilities. In October 2012, Iraq agreed to buy 28 Czech-made military aircraft, a deal valued at about $1 billion. 13 On December 12, 2013, South Korea signed a deal to export 24 FA-50 light fighter jets to Iraq at an estimated cost of $1.1 billion; the aircraft will be delivered between 2015 and Other Post-2011 Security Assistance and Training Programs OSC-I s mandate included training and assistance programs for the Iraq military. Because the United States and Iraq did not conclude a long term Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that granted legal immunities to U.S. military personnel, the 160 OSC-I personnel involved in these programs were contractors that train Iraq s forces on counterterrorism and naval and air defense. Some are embedded with Iraqi forces as trainers not only tactically, but at the institutional level by advising Iraqi security ministries and its command structure. As Sunni unrest increased in 2012, Iraq sought additional security cooperation with the United States. In August 2012, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey said that I think [Iraqi leaders] recognize their capabilities may require yet more additional development and I think they re reaching out to us to see if we can help them with that. 15 Iraq reportedly expressed to Dempsey interest in expanded U.S. training of the ISF and joint exercises. After the Dempsey visit, it was reported that a unit of Army Special Operations forces had deployed to Iraq to advise on counterterrorism and help with intelligence against AQ-I/ISIL. 16 (These forces operated under a limited SOFA or related understanding crafted for this purpose.) Other reports suggest that Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) paramilitary forces had, as of late 2012, assumed some of the DOD mission of helping Iraqi counter-terrorism forces (CTS) against ISIL in western Iraq, 17 while also potentially working against ISIL in Syria as well. During December 5-6, 2012, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James Miller and acting Under Secretary of State for International Security Rose Gottemoeller visited Iraq and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed with Iraq, appearing to address many of the 13 Adam Schreck. Iraq Presses US For Faster Arms Deliveries. Yahoo.com, October 18, Defense News. December 12, U.S. Hopes For Stronger Military Ties With Iraq: General. Agence France-Presse, August 19, Tim Arango. Syrian Civil War Poses New Peril For Fragile Iraq. New York Times, September 25, Adam Entous et al. CIA Ramps Up Role in Iraq. Wall Street Journal, March 12, Congressional Research Service 12

17 issues that were hampering OSC-I from performing its mission to its full potential. The MoU provided for high level U.S.-Iraq military exchanges, professional military education cooperation, counter-terrorism cooperation, the development of defense intelligence capabilities, and joint exercises. The concept of enhanced U.S.-Iraq cooperation gained further consideration in During his November 1, 2013, meeting with President Obama, Maliki reportedly discussed enhanced security cooperation, including expanded access to U.S. intelligence, with U.S. officials, including President Obama and Secretary of Defense Hagel. 18 The joint statement issued at the conclusion of Maliki s meeting with President Obama did not specify any U.S. commitments to this level of cooperation, but did express a shared assessment of al Qaida affiliated groups threatening Iraq. Aside from increasing U.S. training for the ISF, the U.S. military subsequently sought to integrate the ISF into regional security exercises. The United States arranged Iraq s participation in the regional Eager Lion military exercise series in Jordan. Iraq also participated in the U.S.-led international mine countermeasures exercise off Bahrain in In July 2013, the United States convened a strategic dialogue that includes Iraq, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt joined the subsequent session of the dialogue the week of November 18, Police Development Program A separate program, the Police Development Program, was intended to maintain the proficiency of Iraq s police forces. It was the largest program that in 2012 transitioned from DOD to State Department lead, using International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INCLE) funds. However, Iraq s drive to emerge from U.S. tutelage produced apparent Iraqi disinterest in the PDP. By late 2012, it consisted of only 36 advisers, about 10% of what was envisioned as an advisory force of 350, and it is being phased out entirely during Two facilities built with over $200 million in U.S. funds (Baghdad Police College Annex and part of the U.S. consulate in Basra) are to be turned over to the Iraqi government by December Some press reports say there is Administration consideration of discontinuing the program entirely. 19 Post-2011 Regional Reinforcement Capability At the time of the U.S. withdrawal in 2011, U.S. officials asserted that the United States also would retain a significant capability in the Persian Gulf with a potential capability to intervene in Iraq if there were a collapse there. The United States has maintained about 35,000 military personnel in the region, including about 10,000 mostly U.S. Army forces in Kuwait, about 40% of which are combat-ready rather than purely support forces. There is also prepositioned armor there 18 Michael Gordon and Eric Schmitt. As Security Deteriorates at Home, Iraqi Leader Arrives in U.S. Seeking Aid. New York Times, November 1, Tim Arango. U.S. May Scrap Costly Efforts to Train Iraqi Policy. New York Times, May 13, Congressional Research Service 13