Peace and Local Politics in The Nangroe Aceh Darussalam Province. National Survey March The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI)

Transcription

1 Peace and Local Politics in The Nangroe Aceh Darussalam Province National Survey March 2006 The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI)

2 Summary 6 months after the implementation of the peace agreement (Helsinki Accord) the situation in the Nangroe Aceh Darussalam (NAD) province has improved. The general public in Aceh share the feeling of security from any kind of armed conflicts. The large proportion of the respondents (76%) - who acknowledge that the security condition in Aceh is improving- shows that the MoU has been implemented and works well on the ground. The feeling of safety from any armed conflicts is apparent, but the feeling that peace has brought in political freedom is still limited. In districts where the Aceh Independent Movement (GAM) used to hold strong support, there is some degree of fear to talk about politics, to face unlawful arrest by the armed force, or to join any social/political organizations. This shows that the peace agreement has eliminated armed conflict, but has not yet presented freedom and justice to the people of Aceh. Weak economy is the major problem that people of Aceh are now facing. Only 22% of the respondents feel that the economy is good or very good. People in the rural and urban areas complain on this issue. In fact, 40% of the people feel that the economic condition is bad and very bad. The people of Aceh truly welcomes the Peace agreement, which is long overdue. The majority of the Acehnese view that the progress/implementation is positive and think that peace is irreversible.

3 Summary The performance of the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) has been perceived positively by the people of Aceh. Its performance is considered to have positive effects on the implementation of the Helsinki Accord and smoothen the process of reconciliation. Some elements of the population in Aceh still think that GAM has not conceded to the idea of independence and secession from the Republic of Indonesia. Only half of Acehnese (48%) think that GAM will abandoned its secession struggles. This doubt about GAM is even stronger in previously GAM dominated districts; where only 4 of 10 Acehnese feel that GAM struggle for independence has ended. The people of Aceh think that The Indonesian Government has performed well. 85% of the population in Aceh views that the Indonesian Government has successfully mediated reconciliation between the former GAM members and the other Indonesian citizens. More than three fourth of the population in Aceh think positively about the Indonesian Government effort in implementing the Helsinki Accord. These are the Indonesian Government accomplishments that should be appreciated. More than half of the people in Aceh (57%) do not know that the Governor, Regents, and Mayors will be elected directly by the people. Majority of the people support that idea of local party and independent (non-partisan) candidates. This survey found that there the Acehnese support the idea of local party is significantly higher than any other ethnic groups who are also resident of NAD Province.

4 Method and data The Survey was conducted in March Sample Size: Margin of Error is +/- 3.1% with 95% level of confidence. Sampling Method: Multistage random sampling. Interview: Face to face interview with the respondents. Quality control: Spot check was performed for 20% of the total sample by area coordinator and by a researcher from the LSI headquarter in Jakarta. Note: Districts that are previously dominated by GAM include Aceh Timur, Aceh Besar, Pidie, Bireuen, dan Aceh Utara.

5 All villages in the province of NAD District 1 Vil. 1 Vil. n District K Vil. 1 Vil. m RT1 RT2 RT3 RT4 Villages in each district are selected proportional and randomly. In each selected villages, 4 RT (Neighborhood Organization) are selected randomly. HH1 HH2 In each selected RT, 4 households (HH) are selected randomly Man Woman In each selected household, one eligible voter (adult) is selected randomly. (Man/Woman)

6 Findings

7 Demographic Profile of the respondents compared to the Province of NAD Census Data by Indonesian Bureau of Statistics (BPS) (In %) LSI Survey (n = 1015) BPS LSI Survey (n = 1015) BPS EDUCATION RELIGIONS Elementary Education or lower * Islam Junior High School Graduate Protestant Senior High School Graduate Catholic Colledge Educated or higher AGE ETHNICITY 19 years or younger Acehnese years Javanese years Gayo years Other ethnics years old or older

8 Current Condition in NAD

9 Security, Law Enforcement, and Economic Condition in the NAD Province (%; Very Good & Good) 80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 51% 40% 30% 20% 22% 10% 0% Security Law Enforcement Economy

10 Economic Condition 50% 40% Urban, 8% 30% Urban, 10% 20% 10% Rural, 26% Rural, 32% 0% Mediocre (36%) Bad/Very Bad (40%)

11 Most Urgent Problems in NAD High Price of Basic Needs 43% Difficulty in finding employment 33% Corruption/Nepotism/Collusion Poor Transportation Infrastucture Expensive Education Cost 4% 3% 3% Security & Social Order 3% No Trusted Leaders 2% No Law Enforcement 2%

12 Peace in NAD

13 Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes, 68% Ever heard about the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) Good/ Very Good, 88% Performance of AMM

14 Peace Agreement Between GAM The Government of Indonesia Progress in implementing peace accord between GAM and GoI Very Significant/ Significant Progress, 73% The Current peace agreement between GAM dan GoI will lead to peaceful Aceh as part of the Republic of Indonesia Very Confidence / Quite Confidence, 61%

15 GAM will not continue the struggle for independence of Aceh from the Republic of Indonesia 60% 50% 40% 30% Very/ Quite Confidence, 43% Very/ Quite Confidence, 53% Very/ Quite Confidence, 48% 20% 10% 0% Previously GAM Dominated Districts Districts With No Previous GAM Domination All Aceh

16 Government Performance 100% 80% 60% Good / Very Good, 85% Good / Very Good, 77% 40% 20% 0% The Government Performance in Mediating Reconciliation between former members of GAM and other Indonesian citizens Government Performance in Implementing Peace Agreement

17 Local Politics in Aceh

18 Have heard that Governor, Regents, and Mayors will be elected directly through general election? 60% Urban, 17% 40% Urban, 7% 20% Rural, 40% Rural, 36% 0% Have Heard (57%) Never Heard (43%)

19 Opinion of the Resident of NAD regarding Local Political Party (By ethnicity: Acehnese, Gayo, Javanese) Agree/ Strongly Agree, 67% Agree/ Strongly Agree, 30% Agree/ Strongly Agree, 26% Acehnese (77%) Gayo (6%) Javanese (10%)

20 Independent Candidates for Governor, Regents, and Mayors Don't Know, 20% Disagree/ Strongly Disagree, 16% Agree/ Strongly Agee, 64%

21 How confident are you that there will be no intimidation at the local election? Very/Quite Confident, 62% Very/Quite Confident, 53% Very/Quite Confident, 72% All Aceh Previously GAM Dominated Districts Districts With No Previous GAM Domination

22 Fear to Talk About Politics Always/ Often, 38% Always/ Often, 29% Always/ Often, 48% All Aceh Districts With No Previous GAM Domination Previously GAM Dominated Districts

23 Fear to Face Unlawful Arrest by the Armed Forces or Law Enforcement Officers Always/Often, 50% Always/Often, 41% Always/Often, 59% All Aceh Districts With No Previous GAM Domination Previously GAM Dominated Districts

24 Discussion Election serves as avenue for the people of NAD to articulate their aspirations directly, freely, and secretly. In the districts where GAM was a dominant force, only half of the respondents (53%) feel that they can articulate their aspiration freely. This indicates that previous experience of intimidations either done by the Indonesian Armed Forces or by the Members of GAM- had made these citizens have doubts whether the current peace agreement can bring about freedom of expression. Views on political freedom vary across districts, especial differences are apparent between previously GAM dominated districts and the non-gam dominated districts. In the previously GAM dominated districts, citizens have some degree of fear in joining associations/organizations or in facing unlawful arrest (59%). The lack of political freedom is correlated with the degree of skepticism about GAM intentions. Therefore, to build confidence that the peace agreement will last, the Indonesian Government need to ensure the presence of political freedom and freedom from fear/intimidation, especially in districts where GAM used to have stronghold.

25 Conclusion The people of Aceh have experience peace in the form of absent of conflict however they have not yet experience the presence of freedom and the presence of justice. The most critical problem in NAD is the economy. The people of Aceh, in the urban and rural areas, complain about economic pressures that they are experiencing. The desire to allow local (Aceh based) political party is shared by the majority of Acehnese. The Government of Indonesia is viewed as a successful party in implementing the Helsinki accord. On the other hand, there is some degree of doubt on whether or not, GAM will give up its independence aspirations and remain as part of Indonesia.