Ahmadinejad and. Islamic Just War

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Brook Murphy
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1 Ahmadinejad and Islamic Just War Cynthia E. Ayers NSA Visiting Professor of Information Superiority Center for Strategic Leadership U.S. Army War College Proteus Workshop 23 August 2006

2 Islamic Just War Structurally Similar to Western Concepts of Just War but Different Meaning

3 Islamic Just War Description: Just War Bassam Tibi (1996): any war against unbelievers. When Muslims wage war to spread Islam, it is just. When non-muslims attack Muslims, it is unjust. John Kelsay (1993): the imperative to extend the boundaries of the territory of Islam. The radical / apocalyptic understanding is that any war waged to spread Islam throughout the globe is considered a just war.

4 Islamic Just War Must Have: Just Cause Bassam Tibi (1996): to guarantee the spread of Islam John Kelsay (1993): refusal of non-islamic Islamic political entity to acknowledge the sovereignty of Islam Thus: the necessity of overcoming obstacles to the spread of Islam is considered just cause

5 Islamic Just War Must Have: Proper Intent Bassam Tibi (1996): a Qur anic command to spread Islam as a way to peace. John Kelsay (1993): to promote peace for the cause and in the path of God Thus: The promotion of peace through the spread of Islam is proper intent.

6 Islamic Just War (John Kelsay, Islam and War,, 1993) There Must Be: Invitation to Convert The Ruler of Muslims conveys an invitation to convert to the Ruler[s]] of infidels. Options: Accept and Convert or Decline and Pay Tribute (or pay for rejection with death by war)

7 Islamic Just War Who are these rulers? rulers? (John Kelsay, Islam and War,, 1993) The Ruler[s]] of the infidel opposition should have right authority to speak for the entire nation, state, or kingdom ( right( position or status). The Ruler of Muslims must be: A Prophet The Imam al-mahdi Head of the Islamic state or An individual designated by Allah or al-mahdi

8 There Must Be: Islamic Just War (John Kelsay, Islam and War,, 1993) a simultaneous or subsequent Declaration of Resolve Conveyed by Ruler of Muslims

9 Islamic Just War (John Kelsay, Islam and War,, 1993) Once response (or lack thereof) is relayed by opponent: The Ruler of the Muslims then has the choice: Accept conversion Accept or decline any offer of tribute Declare just war *** Note: must have resources, weapons, and manpower available to win prior to sending the invitation.

10 Islamic Just War War Must Be: Last Resort Bassam Tibi (1996): when non-muslims hinder effort to spread Islam John Kelsay (1993): when ruler of infidels rejects invitation to convert or submit to Islam Thus: Upon failure to convince infidel nations to submit to Islam, war is considered Last Resort

11 Islamic Just War (John Kelsay, Islam and War,, 1993) Must Have: Reasonable Hope of Success Estimation of chance for success rests on Muslim leader Muslim leader must consider manpower, equipment, weapons, capabilities of Muslim forces.

12 Islamic Just War (John Kelsay, Islam and War,, 1993) There Must Be: Proportionality and Discrimination (but)... the necessity of winning provides an excusing condition for Muslim armies the fault for excessive enemy casualties devolves upon the enemy leaders it is the recalcitrance of such leaders in the face of truth that has led to suffering for their people Thus: there is proportionality and discrimination by default.

13 Timeline Jan : Ahmadinejad makes trip to Damascus **with Imad Mughniyah 4 April: Great Prophet 7-day exercise begins several missiles tested and unveiled threats made (Israel, Straits of Hormuz,, etc) 11 April: Nuclear enrichment capabilities announced plus continued threats against Israel and West

14 Timeline 8 May: Letter sent to President Bush 10 May: Ahmadinejad makes trip to Indonesia 15 May: Javier Solana announces intention to prepare bold package of incentives 18 May: Ahmadinejad announces that he is writing letter to the Pope 31 May: SecState offers to negotiate directly with Iran if enrichment stopped (Iran dismissed offer)

15 Timeline June: Hezbollah escalates attacks on Israel Hamas ends 16 month truce vows earthquake in Zionist cities 6 June: Solana delivers package of incentives (gives sticks verbally) 15 June: Abu Bakar Bashir (in Indonesia) calls on Bush to convert 17 June: Iran says package is step forward and will offer changes 22 June: Iran says will respond 22 August 28 June: EU wants reply by G-8 G 8 meeting ( July) (Iran: 22 Aug) 29 June: G-8 G 8 expects response by 5 July (Iran insists on 22 Aug)

16 Timeline 3 July: Solana gives Iran till 12 July (Iran replies with 22 Aug ) 12 July: Hezbollah kidnap two Israeli soldiers 19 July: Chancellor Merkel receives letter from Ahmadinejad. 21 July: Chancellor Merkel publicly rejects letter. 30 July: Ahmadinejad threatens: If tomorrow a resolution is released against the Islamic Republic, then the P5+1 [incentives] package will no longer be an issue (and will therefore refuse offer of tribute?) 31 July: UN Sec Council Resolution passed with mandatory and binding requirement for Iran to comply or sanctions would be imposed. Gives G Iran till end of August to suspend uranium enrichment.

17 Timeline 1 Aug: Ahmadinejad offers opportunity for personal interview to Mike Wallace (on or about 1 August) 8 Aug: Interview conducted and taped. 13 Aug: Interview aired on 60 minutes. Ahmadinejad tells Wallace that he was expecting Mr. Bush to give up -- sent message to President Bush: Those who refuse to accept an invitation to good, will not have a good ending or fate. (Offer of tribute denied?) 16 Aug: Iran announces war-games, codenamed Blow of Zolfaghar, saying: We must show the enemies the Islamic Republic s military capability (Declaration of resolve to fight?) 22 Aug: Ahmadinejad s s response?

18 What s s going on? Ahmadinejad threatens Israel and West Ahmadinejad issues invitation to Bush Abu Bakar Bashir issues invitation to Bush Ahmadinejad writes letter to Merkel Ahmadinejad sends message through Wallace Iran begins military exercise Insists on 22 August response

19 What s s Going On? President Bush received invitation to convert from both Shi a and Sunni leaders. (Unification of the Muslims) While in Indonesia, Ahmadinejad makes declaration of resolve: Reiterated rejection of restrictions on Iran s s nuclear activities. The Iranian nation has decided... It will defend and never renounce its rights. Resistance... will not only be for Iran but for all independent nt minded states including Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Egypt and other Muslim contries. (Interesting choice of countries/bedfellows to represent.)

20 What s s going on? The Coalition of nations offered package of incentives E.U.. Negotiator Javier Solana was specifically told to present the sticks in person. The punishments were not written into the package.

21 What s s going on? The package of incentives offered to Iran could be interpreted by Iranian leaders as an offer to pay tribute in submission to Islam Especially since Javier Solana was supposed to have delivered the sticks or punishments verbally, rather than in writing.

22 What s s going on? Ahmadinejad therefore assumes it is an offer of tribute.

23 Ahmadinejad s s Next Move? He can comply with UN Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment, He can accept the offer of tribute or He can declare war.

24 Thoughts: Is this appearance of paying tribute intentional on the part of the U.S. and E.U.?.? True tribute? or Is it an offer of a face-saving gesture for Ahmadinejad s s benefit? Is this a way of playing for time? or Has the Islamic just war tradition even been considered?

25 A Most Dangerous Game No matter what the reason, the appearance of a offer by Western nations of submission to Islam is a very dangerous game. How high of a price are we willing to pay for peace?

26 Questions? Comments? Discussion of letter to President Bush follows.

27 The Letter - Full Text Released Contents: May 9, 2006 Ahmadinejad claims Make War and Terror is Bush s slogan. slogan. Ahmadinejad expressed at least a superficial understanding of Christian apocalyptic beliefs. Revealed the importance of honor in his culture by expressing dismay that Muslim lives and reputations have been lost in Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom.

28 The Letter - Full Text Released Contents: May 9, 2006 Knows what Western media (especially anti-war) reports used similar verbiage Yet seemed to lack basic understanding of free press. Notes previous U.S. support for Saddam Hussein. Decried lack of legal representation for GTMO prisoners and discussed human rights abuses associated with secret prisons

29 The Letter - Full Text Released Contents: May 9, 2006 Expressed doubts about Holocaust and claimed there was no precedent for Israel s s existence. Rehashing conspiracy theories, claimed Israel and U.S. guilty of war crimes (to include 9/11 attacks). Accused U.S. of looting wealth of African nations.

30 The Letter - Full Text Released Contents: May 9, 2006 Claimed money U.S. spends on military deployments and weapons would be better spent on the poor and victimized in U.S. and other countries. Acknowledged President Bush s s strong Christian beliefs. Yet

31 The Letter Called on President Bush to Convert to Islam Will you not accept this invitation? That is, a genuine return to the teachings of prophets, to monotheism and justice, to preserve human dignity and obedience to the Almighty and his prophets? Whether we like it or not, the world is gravitating towards faith in the Almighty and justice and the will of God will prevail over all things.

[For Israelis only] Q1 I: How confident are you that Israeli negotiators will get the best possible deal in the negotiations?

[For Israelis only] Q1 I: How confident are you that Israeli negotiators will get the best possible deal in the negotiations? December 6, 2013 Fielded in Israel by Midgam Project (with Pollster Mina Zemach) Dates of Survey: November 21-25 Margin of Error: +/- 3.0% Sample Size: 1053; 902, 151 Fielded in the Palestinian Territories