Middle East Today. Series Editors. Fawaz A. Gerges Department of International Relations London School of Economics London, UK

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1 Middle East Today Series Editors Fawaz A. Gerges Department of International Relations London School of Economics London, UK Nader Hashemi Center for Middle East Studies University of Denver Highlands Ranch, Colorado, USA

2 Aims of the Series The Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Iran Iraq War, the Gulf War, and the US invasion and occupation of Iraq have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the contemporary Middle East. The Arab Spring uprisings have complicated this picture. This series puts forward a critical body of first-rate scholarship that reflects the current political and social realities of the region, focusing on original research about contentious politics and social movements; political institutions; the role played by non-governmental organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Muslim Brotherhood; and the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Other themes of interest include Iran and Turkey as emerging preeminent powers in the region, the former an Islamic Republic and the latter an emerging democracy currently governed by a party with Islamic roots; the Gulf monarchies, their petrol economies and regional ambitions; potential problems of nuclear proliferation in the region; and the challenges confronting the USA, Europe, and the United Nations in the greater Middle East. The focus of the series is on general topics such as social turmoil, war and revolution, international relations, occupation, radicalism, democracy, human rights, and Islam as a political force in the context of the modern Middle East. Titles include: Ali Shari ati and the Shaping of Political Islam in Iran Kingshuk Chatterjee Religion and the State in Turkish Universities: The Headscarf Ban Fatma Nevra Seggie Turkish Foreign Policy: Islam, Nationalism, and Globalization Hasan Kösebalaban Non-violent Resistance in the Second Intifada: Activism and Advocacy Edited by Maia Carter Hallward and Julie M. Norman The Constitutional System of Turkey: 1876 to the Present Ergun Özbudun Islam, the State, and Political Authority: Medieval Issues and Modern Concerns Edited by Asma Afsaruddin Bahrain from the Twentieth Century to the Arab Spring Miriam Joyce Palestinian Activism in Israel: A Bedouin Woman Leader in a Changing Middle East Henriette Dahan-Kalev and Emilie Le Febvre with Amal El Sana-Alh jooj

3 Egypt Awakening in the Early Twentieth Century: Mayy Ziyadah s Intellectual Circles Boutheina Khaldi The Social and Economic Origins of Monarchy in Jordan Tariq Moraiwed Tell Palestinians in the Israeli Labor Market: A Multi-disciplinary Approach Edited by Nabil Khattab and Sami Miaari State, Religion, and Revolution in Iran, 1796 to the Present Behrooz Moazami Political Islam in the Age of Democratization Kamran Bokhari and Farid Senzai The Role of Ideology in Syrian-US Relations: Conflict and Cooperation J. K. Gani Dual Containment Policy in the Persian Gulf: The USA, Iran, and Iraq, Alex Edwards Hezbollah, Islamist Politics, and International Society Filippo Dionigi Sold Out? US Foreign Policy, Iraq, the Kurds, and the Cold War Bryan R. Gibson Jimmy Carter and the Middle East: The Politics of Presidential Diplomacy Daniel Strieff Contentious Politics in the Middle East: Popular Resistance and Marginalized Activism beyond the Arab Uprisings Edited by Fawaz A. Gerges From the First World War to the Arab Spring: What s Really Going On in the Middle East? M. E. McMillan More information about this series at

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5 The Arab World and Iran A Turbulent Region in Transition Edited by Amin Saikal

6 Amin Saikal Australian National University Canberra, Australia Middle East Today ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Control Number: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identified as the author(s) of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Nature America Inc. New York

7 CONTENTS Foreword The Hon. Julie Bishop ix Preface xi Contributors xiii Abbreviations xv 1 The Middle East and North Africa: An Arena of Change and Transition? 1 Amin Saikal Part I The Arab World: Prospects and Challenges in Transition 7 2 Prospects for Democratization in the Middle East Post-Arab Spring 9 Fethi Mansouri 3 The Post-uprising Arab World and the West: Mythology and Cultural Challenges 29 Robert Bowker vii

8 viii CONTENTS 4 Political Economy Dynamics in the Arab Gulf States: Implications for Political Transition 45 Matthew Gray Part II Islamism and Sectarian Politics 67 5 Islam, Islamism, Muslims, and Governance: Beyond Islam and Democracy 69 Hisham Hellyer 6 The Saudi ulama and the Syrian Civil War 83 Raihan Ismail 7 Sectarian and Ethnic Politics: The Syrian Conflict 103 Minerva Nasser-Eddine Part III Iranian Domestic Politics and Regional Influence Iran s Syrian Foreign Policy Objectives 127 Shahram Akbarzadeh 9 Iran s Relations with Afghanistan s National Unity Government 145 Bruce Koepke 10 Iranian Saudi Relations in a Changing Regional Environment 165 Amin Saikal 11 Conclusion 181 Amin Saikal Bibliography 187 Index 209

9 FOREWORD The Hon. Julie Bishop, Foreign Minister of Australia I was delighted to speak at the opening of the conference on the Arab World, Iran and the Major Powers: Transitions and Challenges, on 26 June The Middle East is a rich and wonderfully diverse part of the world. The region is growing, with a middle class predicted to rise to over 234 million by Australia and the Middle East have very strong cultural and economic links and it is my hope to see those links strengthen further over the years ahead. There is also no doubt that the region faces serious security challenges, especially in Iraq and Syria. The conference attracted a number of respected scholars, including Australian experts. This collection of papers will be a valuable resource for academics and policymakers. The conference also marked the twentieth anniversary of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, which has played a leading role in academic and public policy debate about Australia s engagement with the Middle East and Central Asia. I particularly acknowledge the work of Professor Amin Saikal, the Centre s Director. An expert in the politics, history, and international relations of the Middle East and Central Asia, and the role of Islam in these regions, Professor Saikal is one of Australia s most distinguished academics, a well-known public commentator, and a prolific author. The Centre has been at the forefront of research, teaching, and policy on Arab and Islamic issues in Australia and internationally, under Professor Saikal s leadership. ix

10 x FOREWORD One of the Centre s valuable functions has been the cross-fertilization of ideas between government and academia, which has informed Australia s foreign policy and our international relations. Through the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the government looks forward to continuing its collegial relationship with the Centre for many years to come.

11 PREF ACE The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is in the throes of major geopolitical transitions and resistance to them at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The region has never experienced as much volatility and uncertainty for almost a century. The Arab Spring or popular uprisings which, from late 2010, came to sweep several parts of the region and on which its instigators had pinned their hopes for pro-democratic transformation of their societies has given way to the region becoming an arena of conflicts within conflicts. Only Tunisia has managed to embrace political reform in response to popular demands. Other Arab countries, which were directly or indirectly subject to a popular cry for change in pursuit of political freedoms and improved conditions of living, are now either in the grip of bloody power struggles or once again under authoritarian rule. These developments, together with rivalries between the main regional players, more importantly, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as well as interference by the extra regional actors, more specifically, the USA and Russia (although China has played its role), have generated the necessary conditions for extremist sub-national and transnational religious groups to pose serious challenges to the countries in the region and beyond. Not only have the geopolitical contours of Iraq and Syria already changed and Libya and Yemen have lost their status as functioning states, but also the current trends have the potential for even wider geopolitical alterations. There is not a single regional or international power now capable of taking the lead to bring stability and security to the MENA region and to end the region s vulnerability to extremism, wider bloodshed, and humanitarian tragedies. xi

12 xii PREFACE This book is designed to assess the key variables that have contributed to where the MENA region is placed today and to address the painful issues, developments, and challenges of transition that have come to confront the region and, for that matter, the world, especially the West. I owe thanks to many individuals and institutions for bringing this volume to fruition. First of all, I am deeply grateful to the Australian Foreign Minister, The Hon. Julie Bishop, and her Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, for supporting our endeavor and funding the project. I am also thankful to Adel Abdul Ghafar of the Australian National University for his editorial assistance in the early stages of the volume and to Julie Trehu of Princeton University for her very valuable help during the later and crucial phase of the book s editorial work. Further, I am indebted to Ms Pamela Lourandos, the administrator at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University for keeping me on my toes whilst I was editing the volume during my leave at the Lichtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD), Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. In connection with the latter, I cannot praise enough the LIDS s Director, Professor Wolfgang Danspeckguber, for his warm intellectual and personal friendship, as well as his professional staff, Trisha Barney and Angella Matheney. Last but not the least, I owe everything I do to my selfless and loving partner and critic, Mary-Louise Hickey, without whose support I would be so much the poorer. Canberra, Australia Amin Saikal

13 CONTRIBUTORS Shahram Akbarzadeh is ARC Future Fellow, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalization, Deakin University, Melbourne. Robert Bowker is Adjunct Professor, Center for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia), Australian National University, Canberra. Matthew Gray is Associate Professor, Center for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia), Australian National University, Canberra. Hisham Hellyer is Non-resident Fellow, Project on US Relations with the Islamic World, Brookings Institution in Washington DC, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, and a Research Associate at the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Kennedy School, Harvard University. Raihan Ismail is Associate Lecturer, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia), Australian National University, Canberra. Bruce Koepke is Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden. Fethi Mansouri is Director, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University, Melbourne. Minerva Nasser-Eddine is Lecturer, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia), Australian National University, Canberra. Amin Saikal is Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia), Australian National University, Canberra. xiii

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15 ABBREVIATIONS AKP ANDSF AST BSA CENTCOM FSA GCC GDP IFAD IRGC IS ISAF MENA NATO RSM RST SOFA SWF UAE UGTT UNDP UNHCR UNODC Justice and Development Party Afghan National Defence and Security Forces Ansar al-sharia in Tunisia Bilateral Security Agreement Central Command Free Syrian Army Gulf Cooperation Council Gross domestic product International Fund for Agricultural Development Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp Islamic State International Security Assistance Forces Middle East and North Africa North Atlantic Treaty Organization Resolute Support Mission Rentier state theory Status of Forces Agreement Sovereign wealth fund United Arab Emirates Greater Union of Tunisian Workers United Nations Development Programme United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime xv

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