Syria Daily Intelligence Report 11 September 2017

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Dinah Norton
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Syria Daily Intelligence Report 11 September 2017 Over the course of the weekend, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov offered a number of comments regarding Syria and the developments taking

At a press conference with his Saudi counterpart, Adel al-jubeir, on Sunday, Lavrov told reporters that the negotiations for the Idlib de-escalation zone may be decided during the next round of

1 Syria Daily Intelligence Report 11 September 2017 Over the course of the weekend, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov offered a number of comments regarding Syria and the developments taking place in the country. At a press conference with his Saudi counterpart, Adel al-jubeir, on Sunday, Lavrov told reporters that the negotiations for the Idlib de-escalation zone may be decided during the next round of Astana talks on Syria, which are due to take place mid-september. Lavrov also praised Saudi Arabia for its efforts in unifying the Riyadh, Moscow and Cairo based Opposition negotiation teams into a single unifying team for the talks in Geneva. Lavrov further added that the purpose of the deescalation zones in Syria is not to split the country into different enclaves but to stop violence. It is not a permanent measure, and nobody who agree those zones has an intention of keeping them for good, thus in fact having long-term enclaves in the Syrian territory, Lavrov said, adding that The agreement is their term is six months, and it is clear already the result is evident, the ceasefire is generally observed. Lavrov emphasised that the de-escalation zones are merely the first step towards wider reconciliation in Syria and that it is vital to synergise the Geneva process with that in Astana. Following his meeting with the Saudi Foreign Minister, Lavrov travelled to Jordan where he met with his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi on Monday. At a press conference after the meeting of the two foreign ministers, Lavrov referred to the presence of the United States in Syria, referring to it as illegal. We cooperate in this format with Syrian armed forces exclusively for quashing terrorism and ending the civil war, start solving humanitarian problems and advance in political settlement," Lavrov said and added that Since the very beginning, we have consistently taken a very clear stance. Everyone who is on the Syrian soil or in Syria s airspace without the consent of the Syrian government violates the international law. Russia, as well as the representatives of Iran, including the representatives of the Hezbollah movement, is working here upon a direct invitation of Syria s legitimate authorities, he added. Lavrov further added that Russia and Jordan had common positions vis-àvis Syria. Lavrov s visit to Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as his statements praising the Saudis and stating mutual goals with Jordan are significant, as both Saudi Arabia and Jordan are primary backers of the Syrian rebel groups. The growing cooperation between Russia and these countries was likely instrumental in Syrian rebel groups gradually losing their backing, with Saudi Arabia reducing financial support to the rebels it supports while Jordan has implored its rebels to cede the Syrian Desert to the government forces. These developments highlight a pattern in which Russia has appealed to the self-interest of the countries that back the Syrian rebels to get them to gradually dial down support, while providing the Syrian Government with enough support to ensure that any continued support of the rebels would be a costly affair. Similar patterns can be viewed in how Russia has achieved a détente with Turkey in The seeming lack of involvement by Washington in any of these developments could point to another trend where the US is increasingly absent from regional affairs while Russia has increasingly integrated itself into these affairs, giving a sense of Russian indispensability.

2 Russian officials have also responded to the report published by United Nations on Friday implicating the Syrian Government for the Sarin gas attack in the town of Khan Sheikhoun on April. Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Office and other International Organizations in Geneva Alexei Borodavkin characterised the findings of the UN Commission of Inquiry as fake and "politically driven", stating that it is best to not pay attention to such accusations." Borodavkin claimed that such accusations were a desperate attempt to shore up political legitimacy against Damascus amidst rapid gains made by the Syrian Government forces. Israel, meanwhile, continues to increase the pressure on Syria, perhaps sensing that its window of opportunity for containing Iran and Hezbollah is closing. In an interview with Israeli media on Monday, the Israeli Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked told that if the Syrian President Bashar al-assad wishes to survive, he has a clear interest in keeping Iran out of Syria. She added that Israel needs to pressure world powers to not allow Iran to establish a strong presence in Syria. Shaked added that Iran was establishing weapons factories and ports in Syria and that their presence threatened Israel's safety and security. She further noted that the arsenal of the Lebanese Hezbollah was growing and that the main objective of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) is to prevent the group from obtaining game-changing weapons. While much of Shaked s statements are not a deviation from the Israeli policy some aspects of the speech are worth paying attention to. Most significantly, tying President Assad s survival to Iran suggests that Israel has tacitly accepted that Assad will remain in power and are, at this point, merely looking for concessions regarding Iran. On Monday, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry issued a formal statement confirming that the next round of Astana talks will begin on the 15 th of September. Russia and Turkey had already reported that the talks would be held mid-september, though an exact date was not announced by Kazakhstan so far. In addition to the main sponsors, it is expected that numerous Syrian rebel groups linked to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) expected to attend. With efforts underway to unify rebel groups and political opposition into a single bloc, the outcome of these talks could provide more tangible results compared to the last round of Astana meetings in July. The rebel groups Hayy'at Tahrir al-sham (HTS) and Harakat Nour al-din al- Zinki issued a statement on Sunday, announcing that they had reached an agreement towards reducing tensions following last week's events when the two groups nearly came to blows. The two groups reportedly had a meeting chaired by Islamic jurist Abdul Razzaq al-mahdi, reaching an agreement to remove barriers and security emplacements and form a joint judicial committee to oversee the process of exchanging arrested people. The rebel group Faylaq al-sham was reportedly chosen as the third party to hold all prisoners while other issues of disagreement are being handled. The HTS, meanwhile, has been gripped with internal strife over the weekend after recordings emerged of high-ranking HTS officials and leaders insulting Abdullah al-muhaysini, the Islamic jurist and Salafist ideologue who was one of the few figures in Syria that could bridge between numerous Salafist Jihadist groups. Following the emergence of the recordings, Muhaysini issued a statement laying out the conditions for his continued stay in the HTS. Muhaysini called for greater

3 reverence for jurists in the HTS, the reform and greater implementation of internal judiciary and the formation of a judiciary council to oversee all complaints against the HTS from the Syrian people and other factions. Muhaysini further called for the cases of all prisoners held by the HTS to be reopened and re-examined. Although revered by many of the factions, Muhaysini s standing among the Salafist Jihadist community has diminished due to his failure to prevent the infighting among the jihadist groups. In the lead-up to the war between the HTS and Ahrar al-sham in the summer of 2017, unknown individuals have attempted to assassinate him. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria have continued. Already the focal point of military developments in Syria, clashes in the Deir ez-zour Province have heated even more on Saturday after the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)- affiliated Deir ez-zour Military Council (DeZMC) formally announced the commencement of its operations in the province. The commander of the DeZMC, Ahmad Abo Khawleh, said that the operation, dubbed Jazira Storm is aimed at pushing the IS out of the provinces of Hasakah and northern Deir ez-zour collectively known as the Jazira region with the end goal of capturing the city of Deir ez-zour from the IS. Since the commencement of the operations, the DeZMC announced the capture of the villages of al-khurafi, Tal Jihayf, Jabal Zairib, Bir al-damaini, Hujayf az-zarrab and Tal al-jehev, subsequently announcing that they have reached the industrial areas located on the northern outskirts of Deir ez-zour City. The launch of the operations highlights the most significant flashpoint in the Syrian battlefield at present, as well as representing the most likely area where tensions between the SDF and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) can turn to open combat. With the IS collapsing rapidly, it is evident that both the SAA and the SDF are now trying to capture as much territory as possible. The question now is whether the SAA will push north of the Euphrates like it was planning to before the operations were announced. Perhaps anticipating such a move, the International Coalition issued a statement on Saturday, announcing that it fully supports the SDF until they have captured the Khabur River valley. Other reports suggested that the Coalition has warned any Syrian Government force to not cross north of the Euphrates River, though these reports were not substantiated by any official source. However, in what could be a validation of such claims, there were reports on Monday afternoon that a Coalition aircraft has struck an SAA convoy near the Thayyem Oil Fields. If true, the incident could significantly inflame tensions. The SAA, meanwhile, continued its operations along the southern and western axes of Deir ez-zour City over the weekend. Much of the operations focused on relieving the siege on the Deir ez-zour Military Airbase, which was separated from the government-held enclave in the city last year and remained besieged even after the siege of the city was relieved. Over the course of the weekend, the SAA reportedly captured the Thayyem Oil Fields, the Thardah Mountain, most of the Panorama Roundabout and the villages of Maliha, Tal Rubay at and Khaim al-difa, announcing on Sunday that the siege on the airbase has been relieved. With these gains, the SAA has completely relieved all government-holdouts from the IS siege and have also secured the Palmyra-Deir ez-zour Highway, creating a direct link between Damascus and Deir ez-zour for the first time in years.

4 Meanwhile in Raqqa City, the SDF continues to push into IS-held districts in the city centre. Over the course of the weekend, heavy clashes were reported in the districts of Mansour and Thakanah as a result of a counterattack by IS militants. The attack was repelled. Since then, the SDF announced that they have nearly reached the Children s Garden Park in central Raqqa City and are getting close to closing the ISheld pocket at the city centre. After a period of calm, the northern Hama countryside witnessed a spike of artillery strikes conducted by the SAA on the FSA-held towns in the region. The towns of Lataminah, Kafr Zita, Morek and the villages of Talas and Jahm al-dahmar have all been hit. It is unclear why the sudden escalation took place or whether any casualties have occurred due to the shelling. Heavy fighting between the SAA and the IS in the eastern Hama countryside, meanwhile, continued. On Monday, there were reports that the IS launched a counteroffensive on the SAA positions in the town of Uqayribat, subsequently recapturing it after losing it over a week ago. The largest town in the IS-held pocket of Hama, Uqayribat has been subject to an intense tug of war between the two sides. On Sunday, the Russian Centre for Reconciliation announced that it was in negotiations to reopen the Homs-Hama Highway that passes through rebel-held parts of the northern Homs countryside, dubbed the Rastan Pocket. By Monday, the Centre announced that an agreement has been reached and the road will be opened, with aid delivery already underway. However, numerous pro-rebel activists have denied the reports, claiming that Russia was lying about the developments and that no aid has been delivered. On Sunday, there were reports that the SAA s S-200 anti-air systems in the northern Damascus Province engaged an IDF F-15 fighting over Lebanon. The IDF jet reportedly decreased altitude to avoid the missile and subsequently broke the sound barrier, with the sonic booms heard and felt in the Lebanese city of Saida. The Lebanese Ministry of Defence confirmed that an IDF jet flew low over the Lebanese Airspace and subsequently broke the sound barrier. Conflicting reports have since emerged on whether the F-15 was actually hit or not. This incident marks the first instance in years when the SAA s air defence systems engaged an IDF jet. In the Damascene suburb of east Ghouta, clashes between the SAA and the FSA-affiliated Faylaq al-rahman continued sporadically over the course of the weekend. The FSA claimed to have killed 15 SAA soldiers when it discovered a tunnel being dug by the government forces in Jobar to infiltrate the rebel lines. Meanwhile, there have also been reports of SAA shelling the districts of Ayn Tarma and Zamalka, with numerous civilian casualties reported. Although fighting has remained constant in Ghouta, the intensity has died down since the most recent round of ceasefire was declared. In the Badiya al-sham/syrian Desert Region, the SAA has continued to make gains along the Jordanian Border. On Sunday, the government forces announced the capture of four border posts along the Jordanian Border, subsequently capturing the villages of Rujm al-mutayta and Qabr al-katibah. Following these gains, the government forces announced on Monday that they have captured the Hadalat

5 Refugee Camp. Some 5000 inhabitants of the camp were reportedly evacuated by the FSA which have since retreated to the Rukhban Refugee Camp. Meanwhile, the local FSA factions claimed that the SAA used chlorine gas during the clashes in the region. Local activists in the Ghurayn District of Hasakah City reported on Sunday that Asayish (Kurdish Police) units affiliated with the People's Protection Units (YPG) raided a number of Arab schools in the district, arresting the teachers working there. The raids were reportedly conducted on grounds of the schools refusing to accept the handbooks prepared by the Directorate of Education in the Kurdish language. The issue of Kurdish-language being taught in schools managed by the Kurdish-administered northern Syria has been a sensitive topic. The Arab-majority Ghurayn District has previously witnessed mass protests over the perceived imposition of the Kurdish language in the curricula.

Weekly Conflict Summary

Weekly Conflict Summary April 20-26, 2017 During this reporting period, conflict in northern Syria escalated with Turkish airstrikes against Kurdish positions, the opposition expanded operations in southeast