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1 Religious Research Association, Inc. A Study of Factors Relating to Church Growth in the North American Division of Seventh-Day Adventists Author(s): Roger L. Dudley, Des Cummings and Jr. Source: Review of Religious Research, Vol. 24, No. 4, Voluntary Action and Religion: A Symposium (Jun., 1983), pp Published by: Religious Research Association, Inc. Stable URL: Accessed: :29 UTC REFERENCES Linked references are available on JSTOR for this article: You may need to log in to JSTOR to access the linked references. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Religious Research Association, Inc. is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Review of Religious Research.

2 322 A STUDY OF FACTORS RELATING TO CHURCH GROWTH IN THE NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION OF SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS ROGER L. DUDLEY DES CUMMINGS Andrews University Review of Religious Research, Vol. 24, No. 4 (June 1983). Survey data were collected from 249 pastors and 8,211 members of Seventh-day Adventist churches in the United States and Canada. The survey items were regressed against two measures of church growth in an attempt to identify significant predictors. Growth was found to be related to the extent to which pastors focus all facets of church life on growing, to the percent of members attending prayer meeting and/or meeting in small study and fellowship groups, to the belief in the growth potential of the congregation expressed by pastor and members, to the pastor's skill in the use of certain methods of evangelism, to the degree of unity in the church, to the level of family income, and to the degree to which laity assume church jobs and engage in outreach ministries. A great deal of attention has been given by students of religious trends in recent years to, the subject of church growth and decline. A number of mainline Protestant denominations, after experiencing many years of steady growth, peaked in the mid-sixties and have since been declining in membership. However some of the evangelical churches and certain sects have been growing rapidly during this same period. Within denominations, individual churches exhibit great fluctuations. This situation has caused many church leaders and social scientists to focus on the conditions that may facilitate or hinder church growth. Writer such as Roozen and Carroll (1979:39-40) have identified four types of factors that contribute to growth or decline-national contextual factors, national institutional factors, local contextual factors, and local institutional factors. Social researchers (Hoge, 1979; Roof et al., 1979; Walrath, 1979) have generally attempted to demonstrate that contextual factors explain the greater amount of variance in growth rates. On the other hand the evangelical church-growth movement as represented by Am and McGavran (1973), Gerber (1975), McGavran (1977), Wagner (1979), and others has emphasized institutional factors and claims to have identified the conditions that identify healthy growing churches. They have been joined by a mainline executive like Kelley (1972) whose writings have provoked a great deal of discussion and controversy. Proponents of both views seem to have entrenched themselves in their respective positions. The church-growth movement in America has been sharply criticized (Dudley, 1979; Smith, 1980%) for, among other things: (1) concentration membership recruitment, (2) use of the homogenous unit principle, (3) emphasis on institutional rather than contextual factors, and (4) failure to mediate religious values to the entire community as something separate from the winning of converts. The church-growth

3 323 apologists have defended their stance by appealing to biblical principles and by detailing case studies of "successful" churches. The present study attempts to determine how certain of these factors are related to the growth or decline of Seventh-day Adventist Churches in North America. Adventists in recent years have enjoyed reasonably good growth compared to many denominations. In 1979 the three-millionmember church grew worldwide at a 6.1 percent rate. In the North American Division (United States and Canada) the growth was only 3.3 percent (Office of Archives and Statistics, 1980:20). Yet individual churches manifesthe same wide range in growth rates found in other faiths. Why? The North American Division of Seventh-day Adventists commissioned the Institute of Church Ministry at Andrews University to conduct the present study in an attempto identify the predictors of church growth. Knowing this information can provide a basis for emphasis on the most productive factors and for developing curricular and training materials. This paper reports the results of the study. METHODS From a list of all Adventist churches in the North American Division (United States and Canada), 295 were selected using a computer-generated random-number program. Inspection of the sample revealed that the churches were distributed in every geographical area of the Division (for practical reasons no Alaska or Hawaii churches were included on the population list) and in nearly every state and province. They were also distributed in size categories approximately in the same proportion as are the entire population of churches within the Division. Table 1 shows the Table 1 CHURCHES BY SIZE CLASSIFICATION Number of Percent of Cumulative Size Churches Total Percent > Total N = 249

4 324 distribution by size category for the 249 churches from which the pastors returned surveys. The pastor of each church was asked to complete a survey form for himself and also to have all of the members of his congregation who were present at a given Sabbath worship service complete surveys designed for them. The two surveys were constructed to measure attitudes, behaviors, and ratings that might possibly be related to church growth. The items were selected after a review of the literature, analysis of questionnaires completed by denominational officials, and a series of interviews with "successful" pastors. Since the purpose of the study was to explain differingrowth rates among churches within the same denomination, national factors were ignored. Furthermore since the results of the research were to be used to aid local churches in setting priorities and designing programs in areas where they retained some measure of control, the survey instruments dealt mainly with institutional factors. This is not to deny the presence or importance of contextual factors. Several questions did tap areas such as type of neighborhood in which church is located and educational and socioeconomic status of the membership. While these factors will be integrated into the discussion, the findings will concentrate on the extent to which church-growth constructs may be applicable to Adventist churches. The "Church Growth Survey-The Adventist Pastor" contains sixtyeight items. The "Church Growth Survey-The Adventist Member" contains forty-three items. All member surveys from a given church were averaged for each item to provide a series of responses that represent that church as a unit. The surveys were administereduring the late spring and the summer of Pastors of 249 churches returned their surveys, a response rate of 84 percent. A total of 193 churches returned 8,211 completed member surveys, a response rate of 66 percent. These constituted the largest data bank on church growth ever assembled by Seventh-day Adventists. To measure the amount of church growth, it was decided to use records covering the 18 months between January 1, 1979, and June 30, On the one hand, a long enough period was needed to establish a growth trend. On the other hand, a longer period (two or three years) would make it difficult to assure that the present attitudes and behaviors being measured extended back over the entire time span. An efforto relate the measured items to the growth rates resulted in the selection of the year and a half as a compromise. There are several sources that contribute to growth. In the Seventh-day Adventist Church records are kept of those who join by baptism or profession of faith and those whose names are removed from the records for apostasy. Records are also kept of those who contribute to growth by transferring from another Adventist church or who contribute to decline by transferring out to another Adventist church. It would be helpful to separate conversion growth into accessions from children of church members and accessions from those with no Adventist background. Unfortunately, the Adventist church does not collect these data.

5 325 Therefore it was decided to- use two different measures of growth (or decline). An actual growth rate was obtained by subtracting the membership figure for January 1, 1979, from the membership figure for June 30, 1980 and dividing the result by the beginning membership. This figure was expressed as a percentage to one decimal place. In cases where it represents a decline rate, the negative sign was used. The average actual growth rate of the sample churches for the year and a half was 6.1 percent or about 4.1 percent yearly. It was also, decided to use a measure that would disregard growth or loss by transfer to or from another Adventist church and that would reveal how a church fares in terms of people coming into it by conversion and leaving by apostasy. This was designated as adjusted growth. It was calculated by subtracting the number of members dropped for apostasy and missing from the number added by baptism during the period under study. The result was divided by the beginning membership figure and expressed as a percentage to one decimal place. The average adjusted growth rate for the eighteen months was 7.8 percent or about 5.2 percent yearly. These two growth rates were employed as the dependent variables. Survey items constituted the independent variables. The data were analyzed using the SPSS stepwise multiple regression program. The program selected a list of growth predictors for each of the two sets of variables (pastor and member) on both growth measures. FINDINGS Growth Indicators from the Pastor Survey The data from the two, surveys were not merged into one regression because information was obtained from 249 pastors but the membership of only 193 churches. In 11 of the churches returning membership surveys, the pastor did not respond. Therefore a common data set would be only 182 cases and result in a loss of much information. For this reason the regressions are presented separately, but the results are integrated in the discussion. The best predictors of actual and adjusted growth are displayed in Tables 2 and 3. The stepwise selections for actual and adjusted growth are quite similar. For these 249 churches the two growth rates are highly correlated (.804) indicating that the factors related to conversions are not a great deal different from those related to transfers. Eight variables were chosen on both regressions. The growing church is likely to be: A church that emphasizes growth. The pastor and members attempto make every activity of the church contribute to growth. They have a functioning evangelism council to, plan a coordinated program. This item was selected on adjusted growth but was also significantly correlated with actual growth (.193). The pastor spends a smaller percentage of his time in church administration (presumably so he can invest it in outreach activities). He considers himself skilled in gaining decisions for member-

6 326 Table 2 BEST PREDICTORS OF ACTUAL GROWTH: PASTORS' SURVEY Variable Multiple Adjusted Simple Beta R R2 r To what extent is every phase of church activity focused on church growth? a.2655 Percent of membership meeting small fellowship or study groups a.1754 Rate the potential of your church for real growth a.2203 Percent of pastor's time spent in church administration Accessibility of church to prospective converts Rate your skill in gaining decisions for membership through personal visitation a.1604 Average socioeconomic status of membership Effectiveness of public evangelistic meetings gaining baptisms in your church a,1340 Percent of territory subdivided and assigned to members as their personal responsibility Rate degree of unity in church a.1161 Extento which members who are trained to give Bible studies continue to do so.577, Percent of membership regularly attending prayer meeting a.1070 N = 249 Pastors ap equal to or less than.01 ship through one-on-onencounters. The church has divided up its territory into individual mission fields that it has assigned to the various members. It has learned to make effective use of public evangelistic meetings. A church that believes growth is possible. The pastor is a possibility thinker. He believes that his church can make progress, and-as will be seen in the next section-he has been able to infuse his membership with the same enthusiasm. A church that is being spiritually nurtured and is pulling together. There is a larger-than-average proportion of the membershiparticipating in small fellowship and study groups and attending prayer meeting regularly. The pastor perceives his congregation as united (chosen for the actual selection, this variable was also significantly correlated with adjusted growth at.146).

7 327 Variable Table 3 BEST PREDICTORS OF ADJUSTED GROWTH: PASTORS' SURVEY Multiple Adjusted Simple Beta R R r To what extent is every phase of church b activity focused on church gorwth? Percent of membership regularly b.4 attending prayer meeting Accessibility of church to prospective converts a Effectiveness of public evangelistic meetings gaining baptisms in your b church Percent of pastor's time spent in church administration Average socioeconomic status of membership How manyears should a pastor serve in a church the size of yours? Percent of territory subdivided and assigned to members as their personal responsibility Does your churchave an evangelism council to plan a coordinated soulwinning program? Does your churchave specific written objectives in the various areas of church life? Rate the potential of your church for b real growth N = 249 pastors ap equal to or less than.05. bp equal to or less than.01. Supporting the multiple regression findings, four other variables, though not chosen for the stepwise selections, were significantly correlated with both actual and adjusted growth: (1) how complete a ministry the church has for all age groups and.175; (2) the proportion of members enrolled in or graduates of classes in witnessing, giving Bible studies, etc and.230; (3) the proportion of members actively engaged in some form of personal outreach to nonmembers-.245 and 265; and (4) the effectiveness of the program for involving new converts in the fellowship and activities of the church-.216 and.166. On the other hand, the membership size of the church was not correlated with either rate of growth. Neither were certain variables that the theoretical constructs might have anticipated, such as: hours spent by the pastor in sermon preparation, the frequency with which pastors took members with them for in-field training

8 328 Table 4 BEST PREDICTORS OF ACTUAL GROWTH: MEMBERS' SURVEY Variable Multiple Adju ted Simple Beta R R r Rate your church as a soul-winning church b.3248 Your yearly family income b To what extent do you help your neighbors with their personal problems? Rate your assurance that you are right with God a.1382 How often do you study Ellen White books? Prefers growth explosion to gradual growth, Holds church office or other service position *53a.1976 Years of attendance Adventist schools b.2195 Years as a baptized Adventist b Rate the emphasis your pastor places on soul-winning N = 193 churches ap equal to or less than.05. bp equal to or less than.01. in the conducting of Bible studies, the number of evangelistic sermons the pastor had personally preached in the last three years, the percent of his time that the pastor spent with that church (for pastors of more than one church), or the percentage of names secured from radio or television write-ins that are followed up with at least one in-the-home visit. Growth Indicators from the Member Survey While the questionnaire for the members approached the subject of attitudes and behaviors from a different perspective than that of the pastor survey, most of the same principles were covered. A similarity in the results will be noted. Also, as in the case of the pastor regressions, the profiles for actual and adjusted growth contain a number of the same variables. For these 193 churches the two growth rates are highly correlated (.790). The best predictors of actual and adjusted growth are displayed in Tables 4 and 5. The emphasis on growth and the believing it to, be possible in that church are seen in the first choice on each selection. Members of growing churches are more likely to rate their congregations as soul-winning churches. They are also more likely to prefer a growth explosion to gradual growth and to be active in a church office or other service position.

9 329 Table 5 BEST PREDICTORS OF ADJUSTED GROWTH: MEMBERS' SURVEY Variable Multiple Adju ted Simple Beta Rate your church as a soul-winning church b.4247 Years as a baptized Adventist b Have you been involved in community outreach services? Holds church office or other service position.423,161, Extento which local church is "my kind of people" Rate your assurance that you are right with God a.1589 How well prepared are you for the work of witnessing? Prefers growth explosion to gradual growth Rate your church as to high Adventist standards b.1666 N = 193 churches ap equal to or less than.05 bp equal to or less than.01 The spiritually nurtured church is seen in the higher rating of assurance with God. It is also seen in the adjusted growth choice of the extent to which members rate their churches as having high Adventist standards (significantly correlated with actual growth at.169). Though not selected in the regression, the exten to which members participate in a small study or fellowship group was significantly correlated with actual growth (.167). A new theme is introduced in the member findings-recency of accession. Growth is more likely in congregations that average fewer years since joining the church. It is logical that a growing church will have a high proportion of new members. It may also be that new members, in their fresh enthusiasm, will prove more active in sharing their beliefs than those who have been in the church for years. Not chosen in the regression program, perhaps because of overlap with recency, but significantly correlated with both actual and adjusted growth (-.272 and -.154) is age. Growing congregations are younger in years on the average. Years of attendance at Adventist schools is also a significant predictor. No correlation was found between either growth rate and church size (as in the pastor findings) or with the proportion of members who had been raised in Adventist homes. Perhaps more surprising was the finding that no significant correlations existed between the growth rates and the

10 330 item, "How many people have you been wholly or partially responsible for bringing into the church in the last three years?" The nonsignificant correlations were in the positive direction though (.121 and.148). DISCUSSION Theoretical Implications What do these findings have to contribute to theories of church growth? Most students of church growth would agree that both contextual and institutional factors are important but would disagree as to the relative strength of each. Hoge (1979:194) holds that "the main causation should be seen as being from contextual factors first, then from institutional factors, not the opposite" and that "contextual factors comprise over half the explanation for denominational growth or decline rates" (p. 195). But, of course, the question of causal priority is a logical rather than a statistical one. Researchers may answer it differently depending on their perspective and purposes. As Kelley (1979:338) says in his commentary: "If they are taken first. If the institutional factors... are taken first, they explain virtually all the total variance, and little is left for contextual factors to explain." Both Hoge and Kelley refer to the differences in denominational growth rates. This study is concerned with differing growth rates among churches within the same denomination. Here contextual factors were of secondary importance. On the pastor survey, the rating of the socioeconomic status of the membership was chosen for both selections but not as prime choices, and the zero-order correlations were weak and insignificant. While not chosen in the regressions, the average educationalevel of the membership was significantly correlated with actual growth (.178). An item classifying the type of neighborhood in which the church was located on a scale between "wide-open spaces" and "crowded city" was not correlated with either growth rate. On the member survey, yearly family income was a second-place selection on actual growth (though not correlated with adjusted). It could even be debated whether or not income, socioeconomic status, and educational level in this study are truly contextual factor since they concern only the membership and not the surrounding community. They are internal rather than external to the life of the church. Kelley (1979:337) argues that "the test of an institutional factor is not whether the church can change it, but whether it is part of the institution rather than of its environment." Another question that arises is, do Seventh-day Adventist churches (or other nonecumenical, nonmainline ones) operate by the same growth principles as the mainline churches that have furnished most of the study data up to the present? Could it be that institutional factors are more important to Adventist churches than to mainline congregations and, conversely, contextual factors are less important. A key is provided by Walrath (1982:388-89) who defines "social position" as a bridge between congregations and their environment and uses it to explain why some congregations are much more directly affected by

11 331 their contexts than others. Walrath sets up three classifications-dominant, Subordinate, and Exclusive. These classifications define a continuum that determines the extent to which contextual factors influence church growth. The Exclusive church usually has clear borders of its membership. "Examples... are congregations with a very definite theological position (conservative or liberal), congregations with lifestyle requirements, congregationsupported almost exclusively by one ethnic group.... Rarely do changes in the context affec the Exclusive congregation unless they make access to the site of the church building a problem. People often travelong distances to the site of the Exclusive congregation to find others who are similar in viewpointo themselves" (Walrath, 1982:389). It is likely that Adventist churches with their distinctive doctrines and high-demand lifestyle would come under Walrath's exclusive category and thus find institutional factors more importanthan contextual ones for congregational growth. This is not to deny the reality of context. Undoubtedly some areas are more favorable than others for Adventist growth. But even in similar contexts, some churches will grow while others decline. The differences lie in the internal attitudes and behaviors of the pastor and members. Many of these could be changed in ways that would facilitate growth. Most of the signs of vital, healthy, growing churches that have been identified in the church-growth literature have been found to be also applicable to growing Adventist churches. For example, the key role of pastoral leadership, the high involvement of lay members in the church's outreach, the existence of fellowship "cells" to complementhe wholecongregation worship experience, the employment of effective methods, and the setting of proper priorities were all correlated with the various measures of growth among Adventist churches. The one exception may be that this research discovered little support for the homogeneous principle as an indicator of Adventist church growth. Of course this may only mean that all of the churches are already structured on homogeneous principles, and therefore insufficient range for correlation exists. It may also be that survey items were not valid for measuring this variable. The item chosen to test this concept asked the member to describe his/her congregation on a continuum from "I don't seem to fit in" to "my kind of people." While chosen on the adjusted growth regression, this item had a zero-order correlation of only.021 with a similar relationship with actual growth (.025). It is recognized that demonstrating correlations between survey items and growth does not prove that the items caused the growth. In some cases the presence of the growth itself may have elicited the survey responses. It is probable that in growing churches a "cycle of success," is occurring where the growth and the measured factors encourageach other. However, because of the demonstrated relationship, it may well prove fruitful for churches to focus on items identified as good growth predictors in this research. This would provide an opportunity to determinexperimentally if these items are causally prior to the growth itself.

12 332 Programmatic Implications An examination of the findings which have been presented suggests several implications for denominational and congregational planners: 1. The North American Division is largely composed of small churches. Programs and strategies must be planned that will not depend on large congregations, extensive facilities, or sophisticated equipment. They must be feasible of being directed by pastors of multi-church districts. 2. Church growth seems to be the result of concentrated effort and planning. This is one of the strongest findings. It does not just happen. The church sets a yearly growth-rate goal. Everything that happens in that church is focused on reaching that goal. Every other program and ministry is evaluated by the exten to which it contributes toward attaining the goal. The pastor places prime emphasis on evangelism. He spends less time on church administrative duties and in routine ministry to members and major portions of his time in ministry to nonmembers and in training laity. The church studies and knows its local community. It gears its programs to meeting the felt needs in that community. 3. Church growth appears to take place in a climate of optimism. The pastor believes in the potential of his church to grow. He believes that nothing can stop it from growing. The concept of "possibility thinking" has been articulated in a convincing manner by Robert Schuller (1974) who started with a handful of members and no building and developed the giant Garden Grove Community Church in California. Schuller began to set growth-stimulating goals when he noticed a slogan on a calendar that said, "I'd rather attempto do somethingreat and fail than attempt to do nothing and succeed." His motto is, "You've got to believe it to see it." Members in growing churches have found the spirit of the pastor infectious. They have a sense of camaraderie. They are a team working together. They know that their church is a successful operation. 4. There is a relationship between internal spiritual growth and external numerical growth. Thus, in growing churches more members are likely to attend prayer meetings and to participate in small fellowship and study groups. They study devotionaliterature and try to be good neighbors. A larger proportion of them claim the peace that comes from an assurance of being right with God. 5. Church growth is more likely to be experienced by a congregation that is trained and working. A large percent of the members hold church office or other service positions. They enroll in and graduate from classes in how to witness and give Bible studies. They put the information to use also. They are actively engaged in various forms of outreach ministry to those within the circle of their influence. 6. Church growth follows the use of proper methods. Skillful use is made of public evangelism. The pastor visits prospective members in their homes, studies the Bible with them, and has developed his skills in gaining decisions. The church reaches out to the needs of the community with various creative approachesuch as health ministries. Working toward the kinds of programs and climate described above may be a fruitful way for churches to experience responsible and solid growth.

13 REFERENCES 333 Am, W. and D. McGavran 1973 How to Grow a Church. Glendale, Calif.: Regal Books. Dudley, Carl 1979 Where Have All Our People Gone? New York: Pilgrim Press. Gerber, Virgil 1975 God's Way to Keep a Church Going and Growing. Glendale, Calif.: Regal Books. Hoge, Dean R "A test of theories of denominational growth and decline." Pp in Dean R. Hoge and David A. Roozen (eds.), Understanding Church Growth and Decline: New York: Pilgrim Press. Kelley, Dean M Why Conservative Churches Are Growing: A Study in Sociology of Religion. San Francisco: Harper and Row "Commentary: is religion a dependent variable?" Pp Dean R. Hoge and David A. Roozen (eds.), Understanding Church Growth and Decline: New York: Pilgrim Press. McGavran, D Ten Steps for Church Growth. San Francisco: Harper and Row. Office of Archives and Statistics th Annual Statistical Report Washington, D.C.: General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists. Roof, Wade Clark et al "Factors producing growth or decline in United Presbyterian congregations." Pp in Dean R. Hoge and David A. Roozen (eds.), Understanding Church Growth and Decline: New York: Pilgrim Press. Roozen, David A. and Jackson W. Carroll 1979 "Recent trends in church membership and participation: an introduction." Pp in Dean R. Hoge and David A. Roozen (eds.), Under- standing Church Growth and Decline: New York: Pilgrim Press. Schuller, Robert 1974 Your Church Has Real Possibilities. Glendale, Calif.: Regal Books. Smith, Kenneth L "A book review of Our Kind of People by C. Peter Wagner." Review of Religious Research 22 (September) : Wagner, C. Peter 1979 Your Church Can Grow. Glendale, Calif.: Regal Books. Walrath, Douglas A "Social change and local churches: " Pp in Dean R. Hoge and David A. Roozen (eds.), Understanding Church Growth and Decline: Decline: New York: Pilgrim Press "Commentary." Review of Religious Research 23 (June):