And then they came for the experts

Transcription

1 Cara Einstein Lecture 17 th October 2016 And then they came for the experts Professor Dame Anne Glover Vice Principal External Affairs, University of Aberdeen

2 Speaking out for experts and expertise First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me and there was no one left to speak for me. Martin Niemoeller, 1946

3 Michael Gove compared economists warning against Brexit with Nazis who denounced Albert Einstein in the 1930s

4 What happens when you ignore evidence?

5 Science diplomacy Cara Einstein Lecture, 17 th October 2016

6 Translating evidence Cara Einstein Lecture, 17 th October 2016

7 Nothing shocks me. I'm a scientist. - Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones What is evidence? Where is our evidence base? What is credible evidence? How do we deal with uncertainty? Who might misuse evidence? What are the consequences of misuse?

8 Europe is no. 1 in generating knowledge

9 Europe owns globally unique research infrastructures Very Large Telescope (VLT) Very Large Paranal Telescope Observatory, (VLT) Chile Paranal Observatory, Chile 2013 Jan Marco Mueller Serge Brunier

10 This evidence allows us to tackle global challenges in a rational way

11 Science, engineering and technology are part of our European identity

12 What is credible evidence? Daniel Patrick Moynihan From The Courier 2013

13 Testing the evidence

14 Whose evidence do we trust?

15 Trust to tell the truth Do not trust to tell the truth Don t know Change in trust since 2014 % % % % Doctors Teachers Judges Scientists Hairdressers N/A The Police The ordinary man /woman in the street Clergy/priests Television news readers Civil Servants Pollsters Lawyers N/A Managers in the NHS Charity chief executives N/A Trade union officials Local councillors N/A Builders N/A Bankers Managers in Local Government N/A Business leaders Journalists Estate agents Government Ministers Politicians generally

16 How does society get evidence? Cara Einstein Lecture, 17 th October 2016

17 The best way to combat "gut feelings" is using scientific evidence. Scientific evidence is sound and peer-reviewed. It evolves over time, but it doesn t change from one government to the next.

18 Policies based on facts are more sustainable than those based on fiction

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20 Distortion of evidence

21 Cherry-picking evidence ~31,000 scientists in America have signed a petition saying climate change isn t happening 100% global learned academies say climate change is real - some environmental groups say there is a consensus that climate change is happening ~310 sign a petition in Europe saying there is no consensus on GMO safety and 100% of global learned academies say the technology is safe environmental groups say that there is no consensus

22 Can scientists have a key role in ensuring that policies are more evidence-based?

23 How to ensure evidence matters Communicate what we do and why Demonstrate relevance to a broad audience Speak to the media Speak to policymakers and politicians Speak to the general public Speak to NGOs Speak.

24 Speak a language everybody understands!

25 Be honest about the facts you have and those you don't have! "I am taking a shot in the dark here" "I am almost certain, but there are still a few remaining doubts to clear up" Source: Peter M. Sandman, David Spiegelhalter

26 Perception of risk affected by many issues Source:

27 Offer options for action rather than claiming to have the ultimate solution Option A Option B Option C

28 Scientists need to raise their voice when science is being misused Source: Goddard Institute for Space Studies Daily Mail, 13 Oct 2012

29 If you don t act, who will?

30 greener-industry.org.uk Cara Einstein Lecture, 17 th October 2016 We should talk more about scientific consensus it's a powerful tool!

31 Scientists should demand politicians be transparent about their motivation when they choose to ignore the scientific evidence

32 Cara Einstein Lecture, 17 th October 2016 It takes a lot of effort to generate scientific evidence. We should make the best use of it.

33 Thank you