COLORADO SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS. February 26 th 27 th, 2018

Transcription

1 1 COLORADO SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS February 26 th 27 th, 2018

2 2 Methodology ØMagellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 647n autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state of Colorado. ØThe interviews were conducted from February 26 th 27 th, ØThe overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.85% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. ØThe survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout demographics for a Republican primary election in Colorado. ØDavid Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

3 3 Survey Demographics 51% 49% 47% Male Female 26% 14% 7% 6% % 34% 41% 22% 90% Very Conservative 3% Conservative Moderate Refused Republican Unaffiliated

4 4 Survey Demographics 71% 11% 8% 7% 2% 1% Married Widowed Separated or Divorced Single, Never Been Married Single, Living with Partner No Opinion

5 5

6 6 Congressional Districts Mesa Moffat Rio Blanco Montrose San Miguel Dolores Garfield Delta 3 Ouray San Juan Routt Hinsdale Pitkin Gunnison Eagle Jackson Saguache Park Larimer 2 Fremont 5 Huerfano Weld Morgan Grand BoulderBroomfield Gilpin Adams 6 Clear Creek 7 Summit 1 Denver Arapahoe Jefferson Lake Chaffee Mineral Rio Grande Alamosa Teller Custer Douglas El Paso Pueblo Elbert Crowley Otero Lincoln Logan Washington 4 Bent Kiowa Sedgwick Phillips Yuma Kit Carson Cheyenne Prowers Montezuma La Plata Archuleta Conejos Costilla Las Animas Baca Legend Congressional District Denver Metro Area Inset Gilpin Boulder Broomfield 2 7 Jefferson Denver Weld Adams Clear Creek Arapahoe 4 Colorado Congressional Districts

7 VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE 7

8 8 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 43% 13% 10% 9% 9% 8% 3% 5% ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

9 9 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? WOMEN 42% 10% 7% 11% 9% 9% 4% 8% MEN 44% 15% 13% 7% 9% 7% 3% 2% ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE NO OPINION

10 10 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? MODERATE 30% 20% 7% 19% 4% 12% 2% 6% CONSERVATIVE 41% 14% 11% 7% 11% 2% 8% 6% VERY CONSERVATIVE 56% 6% 11% 6% 9% 5% 5% 2% ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE NO OPINION

11 11 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? % 13% 10% 11% 6% 6% 3% 6% % 15% 14% 6% 10% 9% 4% 6% % 11% 6% 6% 14% 9% 5% 1% % 6% 7% 11% 11% 9% 8% % 10% 0% 19% 15% 13% 0% ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE NO OPINION

12 12 WALKER STAPLETON IMAGE RATING

13 13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? 32% 23% 33% 13% 38% 35% 28% 28% 22% 23% 12% 14% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 43% 37% 29% 32% 30% 23% 26% 19% 21% 20% 9% 12% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

14 14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? 23% 33% 32% 13% 30% 29% 26% 15% 35% 9% 31% 25% SUPPORT SAME SEX OPPOSE SAME SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 37% 31% 23% 26% 29% 22% 24% 10% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

15 15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? 32% 23% 33% 13% FAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION UNFAVORABLE NEVER HEARD OF 43% 29% 21% 7% 40% 28% 18% 14% 34% 33% 34% 29% 27% 28% 25% 14% 10% 13% 35% 18%

16 Walker Stapleton Image Rating Time Series Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? March 2017 through February % 31% 34% 30% 22% 25% 34% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29% 33% 32% 22% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18 Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

17 17 CYNTHIA COFFMAN IMAGE RATING

18 18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? 23% 20% 36% 21% 39% 32% 25% 20% 23% 21% 24% 16% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 35% 36% 35% 29% 25% 23% 24% 17% 19% 20% 21% 16% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

19 19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? 23% 20% 36% 21% 33% 29% 23% 15% 36% 25% 20% 18% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 35% 30% 33% 23% 23% 19% 22% 16% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

20 20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? 23% 36% 20% 21% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 33% 29% 27% 11% 42% 28% 24% 5% 34% 30% 29% 26% 23% 23% 25% 10% 41% 21% 18% 20%

21 Cynthia Coffman Image Rating Time Series Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? March 2017 through February % 33% 36% 29% 31% 25% 22% 24% 26% 21% 19% 20% 21% 23% 14% 2% March 17 October 17 January 18 February 18 Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

22 22 VICTOR MITCHELL IMAGE RATING

23 23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? 11% 11% 48% 30% 45% 28% 32% 15% 12% 11% 7% 51% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 48% 50% 36% 40% 28% 30% 16% 17% 8% 9% 11% 8% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

24 24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? 48% 11% 11% 30% 35% 29% 31% 22% 15% 11% 9% 49% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 48% 46% 31% 28% 11% 10% 9% 17% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

25 25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? 48% 11% 11% 30% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 55% 25% 9% 11% 38% 26% 25% 10% 6% 58% 47% 47% 31% 34% 25% 15% 5% 13% 8% 11%

26 Victor Mitchell Image Rating Time Series Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? March 2017 through February % 70% 57% 27% 30% 17% 19% 4% 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 11% 11% March 17 June 17 October 17 February 18 48% Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

27 27 DOUG ROBINSON IMAGE RATING

28 28 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Robinson? 9% 11% 48% 32% 47% 49% 29% 34% 11% 12% 7% 10% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 49% 51% 30% 31% 38% 38% 13% 8% 8% 10% 19% 5% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

29 29 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Robinson? 9% 11% 48% 32% 37% 16% 21% 26% 9% 8% 33% 50% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 49% 41% 31% 33% 11% 9% 8% 18% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

30 30 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Robinson? 9% 11% 48% 32% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 42% 27% 19% 12% 55% 54% 45% 34% 36% 32% 35% 25% 19% 10% 4% 9% 10% 11% 9% 11%

31 DONALD TRUMP JOB APPROVAL 31

32 32 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? 13% 5% 84% 79% 82% 13% 3% 14% 7% MEN WOMEN APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION 97% 88% 52% 40% 1% 3% 9% 3% 7% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

33 33 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? 13% 5% 82% APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION 83% 78% 85% 79% 82% 3% 14% 16% 6% 12% 3% 17% 3% 13% 5%

34 Donald Trump Job Approval Among Colorado Likely Republican Primary Voters March 2017 to February % 81% 81% 80% 82% 10% 13% 12% 15% 13% 4% 6% 7% 5% 5% March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18 Approve Disapprove Unsure/No Opinion

35 35 REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL

36 36 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing? 49% 16% 35% 53% 45% 34% 35% 13% 20% MEN WOMEN APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION 62% 42% 46% 46% 34% 24% 12% 20% 14% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

37 37 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing? 16% 35% 49% APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION 49% 27% 24% 53% 58% 51% 47% 32% 35% 34% 33% 14% 7% 15% 20%

38 38 Republican Congressional Job Approval Among Colorado Likely Republican Primary Voters Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing? March 2017 to February % 36% 78% 57% 50% 49% 37% 35% 28% 16% 15% 14% 8% 13% 16% March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18 Approve Disapprove Unsure/No Opinion

39 39 COLORADO GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BALLOT TEST

40 40 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Doug Robinson, Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, and Victor Mitchell? 39% 9% 5% 26% 8% 13% 46% 29% 33% 22% 12% 9% 6% 10% 13% 7% 4% 9% MEN WOMEN STAPLETON ROBINSON OTHER COFFMAN MITCHELL UNDECIDED 42% 38% 31% 33% 26% 20% 11% 18% 18% 10% 12% 6% 4% 6% 5% 10% 6% 5% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

41 41 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Doug Robinson, Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, and Victor Mitchell? 39% 26% 42% 9% 5% 8% 13% 27% 23% 19% 18% 14% 17% 8% 12% 7% 5% 7% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX STAPLETON ROBINSON OTHER COFFMAN MITCHELL UNDECIDED 40% 34% 27% 23% 17% 15% 12% 8% 6% 7% 7% 4% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

42 42 If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Doug Robinson, Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, and Victor Mitchell? 39% 26% 9% 5% 8% 13% STAPLETON COFFMAN ROBINSON MITCHELL OTHER UNDECIDED 49% 42% 33% 33% 27% 30% 32% 23% 25% 25% 18% 17% 13% 15% 15% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 6% 12% 12% 6% 10% 3% 4% 4%

43 43 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER OPINION OF SAME SEX MARRIAGE

44 44 Do you support or oppose same-sex marriage? 16% 17% 67% 67% 67% 18% 15% 17% 16% MEN WOMEN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNSURE, NO OPINION 8% 84% 8% VERY CONSERVATIVE 72% 39% 36% 13% 15% 25% CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

45 45 Do you support or oppose same-sex marriage? 16% 17% 67% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNSURE, NO OPINION 56% 61% 59% 69% 70% 22% 22% 16% 23% 20% 20% 21% 10% 14% 15%

46 Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that supports same-sex marriage? 46 19% 34% 47% 49% 45% 35% 33% 16% 21% MEN WOMEN NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 67% 55% 44% 36% 21% 12% 20% 25% 21% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

47 Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that supports same-sex marriage? 34% 19% 47% 47 NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 48% 47% 51% 41% 41% 43% 43% 38% 30% 28% 29% 19% 20% 12% 10%

48 48 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER OPINION OF ABORTION POSITION

49 49 Do you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice? 24% 9% 68% 67% 67% 23% 25% 9% 8% MEN WOMEN PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNSURE, NO OPINION 86% 71% 59% 9% 4% 18% 11% 34% 7% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

50 50 Do you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice? 24% 9% 67% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNSURE, NO OPINION 73% 68% 70% 69% 65% 14% 17% 19% 23% 28% 14% 15% 11% 8% 7%

51 51 Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that is prochoice? 17% 36% 47% 48% 45% 37% 36% 14% 19% MEN WOMEN NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 65% 65% 47% 34% 23% 11% 19% 20% 15% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

52 Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that is prochoice? 36% 17% 47% 52 NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 55% 57% 45% 44% 47% 44% 35% 39% 27% 28% 17% 15% 11% 17% 17%

53 David Flaherty Courtney Sievers Ryan Winger MAGELLAN STRATEGIES